Ad Blocking Survey
and Forecast
© Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
All Rights Reserved
Table of Contents
The Op%mal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast
Forecast
US ad blocking (2016-2020)
Summary Findings
What...
Summary Findings
What we found and why
Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the
US. Ad blocking in the US w...
Summary Findings
Ad blocking will reduce US display adver%sing revenue by $3.9 billion in 2016, up to $12.1 billion in 202...
US Ad Blocking Rate at 11.7%
Based on Op%mal.com proprietary publisher analy%cs (Dec 2015-Feb 2016)
Source: Op%mal.com Cor...
Forecast
US Ad Blocking (2016-2020)
Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display
adver%sing revenue by $12....
PosiKve Drivers in the Forecast
These factors are going to increase ad blocking adop5on over the next several years
Source...
NegaKve Drivers Include Legal Threats
These are factors that will depress the growth of ad blocking in the United States
%...
US Ad Blocker Usage More Than Triples
US online users who regularly use ad blockers to exceed 102 million by 2020
US onlin...
$39 Billion Blocked Over Next 5 Years
US display adver%sing falls by $12.1 billion in 2020, about 24% of current market si...
Ad Blocking Kills Display Growth Rate
CAGR for display adver%sing (‘16-’20) drops from 12.2% to 8.3% as revenue lost to ad...
Survey Results
Conducted in April 2016
Op%mal.com and Wells Fargo Securi%es surveyed US
smartphone users about their mobil...
OpKmal.com + Wells Fargo Survey
We surveyed 1,712 US smartphone users about ad blocking behavior and aktudes
Approximately...
A Third Have Exceeded Data Allowances
And the weighted average data plan per person is 3.12 Gb/month
Have you ever paid an...
23% of Smartphone Users Block Ads
Survey sample is adult smartphone users -> Op%mal US data indicates overall 11.7% ad blo...
Blocking Similar by Age, Male Bias
Women slightly less likely to block ads than men (20% vs. 27%)
Source: Wells Fargo Secu...
Speed, Malware & Irrelevance Top Issues
Privacy concerns and data costs are far smaller concerns for adblocking users toda...
Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs
Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’...
Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs
Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’...
Other Reasons Why Not Blocking Ads
Some answers make a lot of sense. Some others, well… you be the judge!
“because ads pay...
Mobile Ads More Annoying Than TV Ads
Mobile popup ads considered 3.7 %mes worse than TV ads, mobile video 2.4 %mes worse
S...
Users 60+ Less Tolerant of TV, Desktop
Users between 18-29 years of age much more annoyed by mobile video/popup ads
Source...
Low Trust in Google, Facebook, Carriers
However, 43% of people said they don’t trust any en%ty to protect their personal i...
Sharing is Caring. (SomeKmes)
Facebook and Google 3x more likely trusted by 18-29 years old vs. 60+ age group
Source: Well...
Young Adults Far More TrusKng
32% of 18-29 year-olds would trust 4 or more of the en%%es we listed with their personal inf...
PotenKal for Carrier-Led Blocking?
A $9.99 price point might be too high, but younger users more willing to consider
Sourc...
RecommendaKons
Test alterna%ve mone%za%on, fix broken ad system
There is no easy or quick fix for publishers and adver%sers....
What consumers deserve from online adver%sing, publishers and adver%sers
Canonical adver5ser iden5ty. Bad actors change
na...
Mobile Consumers Could Save Billions
The average iPhone user could save over $7/month in excess data charges by blocking a...
About Us
Who is Op%mal.com?
Op%mal.com is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado and
San Francisco, California. We’re working ...
OpKmal Powers New MoneKzaKon Models
Op%mal’s direct consumer subscrip%ons replace publisher ad revenue for users who block...
OpKmal.com Pays Publishers for Ad Blocking
70% of every subscrip%on goes back to publishers, and users can also “%p” publi...
Our Contact Info
How to get in touch
Op%mal.com is based in Boulder,
Colorado and San Francisco, California.
P.O. Box M
Bo...
Prochain SlideShare
Chargement dans…5
×

Optimal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast

3 536 vues

Publié le

Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display advertising revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020. Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the US, based on Optimal.com analytics.

Publié dans : Internet
1 commentaire
3 j’aime
Statistiques
Remarques
  • If you want to download this file as a PDF, the underlying data in Excel and the full model, simply visit adblocksurvey.com
       Répondre 
    Voulez-vous vraiment ?  Oui  Non
    Votre message apparaîtra ici
Aucun téléchargement
Vues
Nombre de vues
3 536
Sur SlideShare
0
Issues des intégrations
0
Intégrations
2 002
Actions
Partages
0
Téléchargements
0
Commentaires
1
J’aime
3
Intégrations 0
Aucune incorporation

Aucune remarque pour cette diapositive

Optimal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast

  1. 1. Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast © Op%mal.com Corp. 2016 All Rights Reserved
  2. 2. Table of Contents The Op%mal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast Forecast US ad blocking (2016-2020) Summary Findings What we found and why Survey Results Response data and relevant cross-tabs Recommenda%ons What to do and what’s next? About Us Who we are and how to reach us
  3. 3. Summary Findings What we found and why Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the US. Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display adver%sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020.
  4. 4. Summary Findings Ad blocking will reduce US display adver%sing revenue by $3.9 billion in 2016, up to $12.1 billion in 2020 Op%mal.com’s blocker tracking data shows 11.7% of online display ad impressions were blocked in 2015 in the United States. Ad blocking will reduce online and mobile display adver%sing revenue in the US vs. previous industry forecasts of over $50 billion in 2020, dropping to $38.8 billion (23.8% or $12.1b lower), and $3.9b lower, a drop of 12.1%, in 2016. Op%mal.com data shows that today over 90% of ad blocked impressions are s%ll coming from desktop (and not mobile) browsing, but the trend toward mobile blocking will intensify, especially as mobile ads are seen by consumers as far more intrusive and annoying: mobile popup ads are considered 3.7 %mes worse than TV ads by those surveyed, with mobile video ads seen as 2.4 %mes more annoying. Countries like Germany, France, Sweden and the Netherlands already have ad blocking rates in excess of 20%, with countries like Greece, Ukraine and Poland in the 26-31% range. Mobile will be heavily impacted by ad blocking, with 48% of users ci%ng mobile popup ads as the most annoying/ intrusive ads across all media, and 31% ci%ng mobile video ads, in both cases seen as worse by consumers than TV ads (13%). Given the low price for ad blockers (o_en free), simply increasing consumer awareness among non-blocking users will be a big driver for increasing ad blocking adop%on. The ad industry risks increasing adop%on by focusing on preven%ng ad blocking instead of fixing the underlying reasons consumers are seeking out these solu%ons.
  5. 5. US Ad Blocking Rate at 11.7% Based on Op%mal.com proprietary publisher analy%cs (Dec 2015-Feb 2016) Source: Op%mal.com Corp. both desktop and mobile (2016)
  6. 6. Forecast US Ad Blocking (2016-2020) Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display adver%sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020 (a 24% reduc%on). In 2020, over 102 million users (36.6% of the US online audience) will be blocking ads at least monthly
  7. 7. PosiKve Drivers in the Forecast These factors are going to increase ad blocking adop5on over the next several years Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016 % of ad blocking users ac5vely using Ac%ve user rates for these tools are usually very high, but could change over %me Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate Many of these factors directly impact whether consumers are aware of the availability of ad blocking tools Conversion rate to installing ad blockers Our assump%ons on conversion rates are generally modest, based both on our survey research and “usage” factors
  8. 8. NegaKve Drivers Include Legal Threats These are factors that will depress the growth of ad blocking in the United States % of ad blocking users ac5vely using Ac%ve user rates for these tools are usually very high, but could change over %me Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate Many of these factors directly impact whether consumers are aware of the availability of ad blocking tools Conversion rate to installing ad blockers Our assump%ons on conversion rates are generally modest, based both on our survey research and “usage” factors Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
  9. 9. US Ad Blocker Usage More Than Triples US online users who regularly use ad blockers to exceed 102 million by 2020 US online users (‘000) % of US online users Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
  10. 10. $39 Billion Blocked Over Next 5 Years US display adver%sing falls by $12.1 billion in 2020, about 24% of current market size es%mates Sources: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015 Revenue ($ million) % of US mobile & desktop display revenue
  11. 11. Ad Blocking Kills Display Growth Rate CAGR for display adver%sing (‘16-’20) drops from 12.2% to 8.3% as revenue lost to ad blocking balloons Sources: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015 Model assumes CPMs increase Due to depressed inventory, we assume that prices increase by between 5% (2016) and 15% (2020) which par%ally offsets decline in inventory. These figures do in fact assume that increase occurs. Lower impact on Facebook mobile Given the enormous mobile app footprint that Facebook has, and their ability to serve ads as a first-party, we assume a far smaller impact on their mobile adver%sing. *CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
  12. 12. Survey Results Conducted in April 2016 Op%mal.com and Wells Fargo Securi%es surveyed US smartphone users about their mobile phones, mobile and desktop ad blocking behavior and aktudes. Survey was conducted using SurveyMonkey Audience panel.
  13. 13. OpKmal.com + Wells Fargo Survey We surveyed 1,712 US smartphone users about ad blocking behavior and aktudes Approximately 30% of respondents selected one of the Android phones specified in the ques%on (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S5 or Google Nexus). What’s your average monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$? The propor%on of survey respondents whose primary smartphone is an Apple device, 27.6% iPhone 6/6S. 48% What’s your average monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$? Which brand/model is your primary phone? (some responses aggregated) Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
  14. 14. A Third Have Exceeded Data Allowances And the weighted average data plan per person is 3.12 Gb/month Have you ever paid an overage charge for exceeding your monthly data allowance? Approximately how many Gigabytes (Gb) of data per person is your current mobile phone data plan (e.g. if it’s 4Gb and shared between two people, that would be 2Gb)? Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
  15. 15. 23% of Smartphone Users Block Ads Survey sample is adult smartphone users -> Op%mal US data indicates overall 11.7% ad block rate Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016, Op%mal.com publisher data Feb 2016 Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some other soJware or blocking device? Country-weighted data, from OpNmal.com on-site ad blocking measurement, both mobile and desktop browsers Note this is blocking on either desktop or mobile, or both
  16. 16. Blocking Similar by Age, Male Bias Women slightly less likely to block ads than men (20% vs. 27%) Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016 Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some other soJware or blocking device?
  17. 17. Speed, Malware & Irrelevance Top Issues Privacy concerns and data costs are far smaller concerns for adblocking users today Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=392 who block ads) April 2016 Why did you decide to block ads? (select top three) Of those who’ve had phone data overage 47.6%
  18. 18. Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads” Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016 Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason)
  19. 19. Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads” Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016 Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason) Women 53% Men 36% Women less aware of ad blocking than men Age 18-29 8.8% Age 60+ 0.3% Younger users concern over blocking impact
  20. 20. Other Reasons Why Not Blocking Ads Some answers make a lot of sense. Some others, well… you be the judge! “because ads pay for the content and don't want to be a free loading asshole” Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) Users who provided “Other” as the reason why they’re not yet blocking ads: here were some of the verba%m reasons they gave…7.1% “phone not rooted” “Don't get many ads, thank God” “not being bothered....yet” “Company owned device, they do that.” “I don't use the browser” “I have unlimited data. It doesn't mater.” “i block most apps from using cellular data” “hassle to block ads in several apps…” “If I start gekng more and it's intrusive, I'll block them.” “I'm too lazy to figure out how to do it” “I don’t care enough one way or the other” “Ads from what? The only ads I ever experience are through apps that have ad content (Pandora for example).” “I don't use the internet on my phone.” “Ad blockers present their own problems on my system” “I use my phone to make calls and text” “Do not trust them” “Ad blockers harm your phone” “I work in adver%sing and know that ads allow me to access content for free.” “Blocking ads also affects content I want” “some sites require it disabled” “I am on the no call list” “I use adblock on my laptop but ads on my phone don't bother me much.” “Windows Phone doesn't allow.” “I manually unsubscribe” “What ads?”
  21. 21. Mobile Ads More Annoying Than TV Ads Mobile popup ads considered 3.7 %mes worse than TV ads, mobile video 2.4 %mes worse Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016 Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three)
  22. 22. Users 60+ Less Tolerant of TV, Desktop Users between 18-29 years of age much more annoyed by mobile video/popup ads Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=407 age 18-29, n=368 age 60+) April 2016 Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three) 18-29 8.8% 60+ 22.3% Television ads 18-29 52.1% 60+ 39.1% Mobile popup ads 18-29 39.6% 60+ 21.5% Mobile video ads Age 18-29 Age 60+ Most annoying/intrusive:
  23. 23. Low Trust in Google, Facebook, Carriers However, 43% of people said they don’t trust any en%ty to protect their personal informa%on Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016 Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply) Block ads 36.0% Don’t block ads 45.2% Your Bank Block ads 26.5% Don’t block ads 33.6% Your Employer Block ads 48.2% Don’t block ads 40.8% Don’t Trust Any En%ty
  24. 24. Sharing is Caring. (SomeKmes) Facebook and Google 3x more likely trusted by 18-29 years old vs. 60+ age group Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016 Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)
  25. 25. Young Adults Far More TrusKng 32% of 18-29 year-olds would trust 4 or more of the en%%es we listed with their personal informa%on Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016 Count of -> Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)
  26. 26. PotenKal for Carrier-Led Blocking? A $9.99 price point might be too high, but younger users more willing to consider Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016 If your mobile carrier offered an add-on service to block all ads and any code that might anonymously share your idenNty or locaNon on your phone for $9.99/month, how likely would you be to sign up? [pick one] Top 2 Box (very or somewhat likely)
  27. 27. RecommendaKons Test alterna%ve mone%za%on, fix broken ad system There is no easy or quick fix for publishers and adver%sers. Consumer trust has been fundamentally harmed and the ease of op%ng out of ads will only increase. Fix the broken ad ecosystem and make trade-offs clearer for users.
  28. 28. What consumers deserve from online adver%sing, publishers and adver%sers Canonical adver5ser iden5ty. Bad actors change names and pop-up again. Collaborate industry-wide 1 Our SuggesKons to Fix AdverKsing Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016 2 No malware, popups or adware. Create a three- strikes policy for providers who let anything through 3 Universal ad-server approval. Too many firms allow any code on their site. Limit and enforce standards 4 Restrict retargeted ads. Users get creeped out. No more than 3 pages of these ads, per ac%on/product 5 Three ads per page. Data shows that fewer is beter. Enforce limits on ads per page/minute. 6 Full history of targe5ng data. See what data is being used to target any ad. Let me delete/change 7 Adver5ser blacklists for users. Let me block specific adver%sers from showing ads to me, easily. 8 Label ads properly. “From Around the Web”? Enforce labeling for sponsorship/ads consistently 9 Devote 10% of ad space to feedback. Have the ad gather my feedback, make visible to sites and users 10 Allow paid ad blocking. Anyone should be able to pay a fair amount & not be hassled for blocking ads
  29. 29. Mobile Consumers Could Save Billions The average iPhone user could save over $7/month in excess data charges by blocking ads US iPhone users alone could save up to $8.3 billion per year on excess data charges due to web browsing In our 5-site test, blocker-users saw a total of 786 URL calls instead of 1721, there are massive privacy implicaKons Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016 Interac%ve model here: htp://op%mal.com/savings/
  30. 30. About Us Who is Op%mal.com? Op%mal.com is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado and San Francisco, California. We’re working to create alterna%ve ways for publishers to mone%ze great content.
  31. 31. OpKmal Powers New MoneKzaKon Models Op%mal’s direct consumer subscrip%ons replace publisher ad revenue for users who block ads Sites Browsers Users User feedback Content ra%ng Site ra%ngs Pay to block $5-$10/month Improving ads Shared whitelists Fraudulent sites Site sugges%ons Publisher tools Ad block % tools Site +revenue by gekng user votes ... while adding social features so the best websites earn more Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
  32. 32. OpKmal.com Pays Publishers for Ad Blocking 70% of every subscrip%on goes back to publishers, and users can also “%p” publishers Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016 Upvote sites you like to increase their revenue, see if others agree Report sites who are blocking your blocker or for other issues Favorite up to 5 sites for an immediate boost Monthly revenue each site gets from you is transparent Tip sites an extra $0.01 to $1.00 if they’re doing a great job!
  33. 33. Our Contact Info How to get in touch Op%mal.com is based in Boulder, Colorado and San Francisco, California. P.O. Box M Boulder CO 80306 Address Rob Leathern, Founder and CEO Email: rob@op%mal.com Contact Info Phone: +1 (720) 619-2237 Telephone We’d like to acknowledge the help of Peter Stabler and his team at Wells Fargo Securi%es, thank you for this opportunity to collaborate on an important issue!

×