The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

1. Country Authors:
Sikhalazo Dube (Agriculture Research Council‐API)
&
Robert J Scholes (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research‐NRE)
Modeling team:
Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason‐D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo,
International Food Policy Research Institute
6‐8 November 2011
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security –
Beijing, CHINA

2. Introduction
Food security for South Africa’s inhabitants is enshrined in
the constitution (section 27 of constitution …“the state
must by legislation and other measures, within its available
resources, avail to progressive realization of the right to
sufficient food’’….)
large portion of South Africa’s population under‐ or mal‐
nourished both in urban (a consequence of rural urban
migration and depressed job markets) and rural areas

3. Population Trends: Total Population, Rural Population,
and Percent Urban, 1960‐2008

4. Introduction
Food insecurity is further increased by the
negative impacts of HIV‐AIDS on the ability of the
active population to produce food
The projected decline in precipitation and increase in
temperature (>1°C) will bring about stress in the food
production sector

5. Role of Agriculture in the South African Economy
Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP from agriculture

6. GCM Projected Climate Changes

7. Changes in annual maximum temperature between
2000 and 2050 (°C)

8. Changes in mean annual precipitation between 2000 and 2050 (mm per year).

9. Scenarios to Adaptation
(Biophysical)

10. Consumption of leading food commodities,
average of 2003-2006 (Source: FAOSTAT (FAO, 2010)
Rank Crop % of total Food consumption
(000 mt)
1 Maize 21.80% 4,952
2 Wheat 11.50% 2,615
3 Beer 11.00% 2,508
4 Sugar (Raw Equivalent) 6.60% 1,510
5 Potatoes 5.80% 1,318
6 Vegetables, Other 5.50% 1,258
7 Poultry Meat 4.70% 1,074
8 Rice (Milled Equivalent) 3.30% 747
9 Beverages, Fermented 3.30% 747
Total 100.00% 22,748

11. Yield change under climate change scenario for rainfed
maize
MIROC3.2
medium resolution
ECHAM5 GCM GCM

12. Yield change under climate change scenario for irrigated
maize

13. Yield change under climate change scenario for wheat

14. Scenarios to Adaptation
(Income and demographics)

15. GDP Per Capita Scenarios
Source: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011, computed from World
Bank and United Nations population estimates (2008 revision)

16. Scenarios to Adaptation
(Crop specific vulnerabilities)

17. Scenario outcomes for maize
Yield Price
Net Export

18. Scenario outcomes for wheat
Price
Yield
Net Export

19. Scenario outcomes for sugarcane
Price
Yield
Net Export

20. Human Vulnerability Scenarios Outcomes

21. Nutrition
Average daily kilocalories availability under Number of malnourished children under 5 years
multiple income and climate scenarios of age under multiple income and climate
(kilocalories per person per day) scenarios

22. Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

23. GHG Emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs,
HFCs, SF6) in South Africa by Sector

24. Summary
There is a strong warming throughout South Africa t0 2050.
Net drying over the country as a whole, but spatial variation between the south
western regions and the north eastern regions, which have different
implications for different crops.
Per‐hectare yields of the staple carbohydrate crop, maize, are predicted to rise
moderately and linearly until 2050, despite the warming and national drying.
Predictions suggests that the climate within the main maize‐growing areas
remains tolerable for maize, but may also conceal unjustified assumptions
regarding the availability of irrigation water.
Projected increase the net imports of maize five‐fold, and the price of maize
two‐fold is a serious food security concern.

25. Summary
Projections of wheat yield per hectare increases are unlikely, given the
geographical distribution of wheat in South Africa, largely in the south west
The net import of wheat increases and the price of wheat is projected to
increase 2.5 times; a concern particularly for the urban poor.
Calorie production per capacity remains at close to the adequate baseline of
3000 kilocalories/day for the base socioeconomic scenario ; this would lead to
child malnutrition outcomes much larger than those projected by the model.

26. Summary
Crops used for animal feed – maize, sorghum and soybean – all show trends
that would make feedlot animal production substantially more expensive.
Large increases in sugar cane production are projected, based on both yield
and area planted increases that we consider unlikely considering limits on the
suitable land, water and markets.
The analysis indicates substantive reasons for concern regarding agricultural
and food security futures in South Africa. Autonomous adaptation, using
market responses only, are unlikely to be able to adjust to the local food
deficits. Global mitigation steps and local adaptation interventions are called
for.

27. THE END
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