06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the Grassroots Level
1. Mahmoud Mohieldin,
Senior Vice President
World Bank Group
Delivering the
Sustainable
Development
Goals
(SDGs) at the
Grassroots Level
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
0
2. Georgetown Leadership Seminar
Wednesday October 25th at 12:30 PM
Global Context:
Prospects and Challenges
The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs:
An Opportunity for Transformation
Solutions:
What to Avoid and What to Pursue
Role of the WBG
Data, finance, and implementation
Implementation Happens at the Local Level
1
4. GDP Growth (Percent)
Source: World Bank, 2017
Global Context
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
Advanced Economies Emerging Mkt and Developing Economies World 3
5. Source: Danny Quah, 2011
The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–2016, in black, at three-year intervals
1980
1989
1998
2007
2016
2049
Reflections on the new global
economy: multipolarity
4
6. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
Reflections on the new global
economy: multipolarity
5
7. Reflections on the new global
economy: multipolarity
Channels of growth spillovers from a growth pole
Source: World Bank staff calculations. Note: Arrows point to direction of flow,
whereby growth from a pole can influence growth elsewhere, while annotations
indicate the specific growth stimuli transferred to the beneficiary of the pole.
6
8. Drivers of the Global Development Agenda:
Last 15 Years in Developing Economies
Macro-stability and
demographic
dividends
Poverty
reduction and
middle class
growth
China led growth
and commodity
boom (emerging
markets)Positive
Conditions
for Twin
Goals
7
9. End of the
Commodity super-
cycle
Diminished
capital & trade
flows
Slowing China
growth
Increasing
Headwinds
Thin
Policy
Buffer High Debt
Levels
Slow
Growth
Fiscal
Pressures
Internal Vulnerabilities
Sputtering Drivers?:
Recent Conditions
8
10. Addressing Global Megatrends & Challenges
Economic diversification; 600 million new jobs (SDG#8)
Sustainable Health & welfare system (SDG#3)
Urban management (SDG#11)
Private expertise/funding for infrastructure/urban
services (SDG#11; SDG#9; SDG#17)
Shift from fossil fuels to renewables/ efficiency (SDG#7)
Agriculture adaptation (SDG#2)
Shocks and risks preparedness (SDG#13)
Protecting vulnerable from fragility & violence (SDG#1;
SDG#16)
New sources of growth and trade, especially for
commodity exporters (SDG#9)
Demographic and
Growth Transitions
Urbanization
Shifts in Global
Economy
Climate and
Resources
Cycles, Disruptions
and Fragility
9
11. The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs:
An Opportunity for
Transformation
10
13. Progress on the MDGs
Share Of Global Poverty
51%
0%
4%
30%
15%
1990
East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Global poverty:
1.96 billion
37.1 % of global
population
12%
1%
4%
33%
50%
2015
Global poverty:
702 million
9.6% of global
population
12
14. An Opportunity for Transformation:
Lessons Learned from the MDGs
• Ensure the timeliness and effectiveness of policy
instruments
• Increase efficient allocation of resources
• Recognize and identify interrelatedness of
development goals at the onset
• Ensure strong government involvement
• Promote quality data
• Increase cross-institutional collaboration
• Prioritize engagement of communities and community
mobilization
• Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas
Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme
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15. An Opportunity for Transformation:
From MDGs to SDGs
The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national
development path
MDGs
(2000-2015)
SDGs
(2016-2030)
Goals 8 17
Targets 21 169
Indicators 60 ~231
Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental
Scope Developing Countries Universal
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18. • Dealing with joblessness by relying on the civil service;
• Cutting fiscal deficits by sacrificing public investment
in infrastructure;
• Subsidizing energy except for very limited subsidies
to highly vulnerable sections of the population;
• Open ended protection for specific sectors;
• Imposing administrative price controls;
• Banning exports;
• Underpaying civil servants compared to the private sector;
• Exchange rate misalignment;
• Resisting urbanization/underinvesting in infrastructure;
• Ignoring environmental implications;
• Poorly regulating the Banking sector and excessive interference;
• Measuring educational progress solely by higher enrollments and ignoring the
quality of education
Solutions:
Avoid bad ideas
The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 200817
19. Solutions:
Increase domestic savings
*Gross domestic savings are calculated as GDP less final consumption expenditure (total consumption)
Key drivers of domestic savings*
• Improve real income through increasing total
factor productivity, labor efficiency, and
maintaining price stability
• Reform public social security and commercial
insurance systems
• Influence savings behavior; e.g. introduce savings
certificates for all students and bank accts/digital
savings accounts for all university or higher ed.
students
• Mobilize digital/biometric ID systems
• Develop financial services, instruments,
competition, and access
18
20. Solutions:
Take the SDGs seriously
EFFECTIVE
IMPLEMENTATION
ADEQUATE DATA
Provide integrated
solutions and work
across
sectors/ministries
Ensure availability of
household budget
surveys in 78 poorest
countries every three
years; data revolution;
statistical capacity
building
BETTER
FINANCING
Domestic resource
mobilization;
leveraging private
sector; addressing
needs of regional and
global public goods
19
21. Role of the WBG: Data, Finance,
and Implementation
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23. Data:
List of countries with 0, 1, or 2 poverty data points
Without accurate and timely data, we don’t know where the needs are greatest and whether
our interventions are even working 22
26. Data:
The Role of the WBG
Three areas of work:
• Strengthening partnerships
• Producing data and cross-country indicators
• Fostering client country data production,
dissemination, and use
Some specific examples of WBG support to
countries include:
• Technical assistance on household survey
programs
• Civil registration and Vital Statistics systems
• Earth observation data and geospatial
mapping
• Identification for Development (ID4D)
initiative
• World Development Indicators and SDG Atlas
25
27. 1. National public
resources:
Improving domestic resource
mobilization (DRM)
2. Global public
resources:
Better and smarter aid
3. National and global
private resources:
Unlocking private investment for
development, Attracting FDI,
Remittances, Philanthropic finance
Financing the SDGs:
The key components
26
28. Financing the SDGs:
Private sector engagement is critical
1990 2015
$ BILLIONS
FOREIGN
DIRECT
INVESTMENT
OFFICIAL
DEVELOPMENT
ASSISTANCE
Soaring Private Capital Flows,
Flat Official Development
Assistance
Source: IFC Presentation to Center for Global Development, February 2017
27
29. Assets held
by the world’s
ten largest
pension funds
Financing the SDGs:
Assets held
by the world’s
largest
insurance
companies
Assets held
by the world’s
largest sovereign
wealth funds
Global bond
market
$4.5
TRILLION
$2
TRILLION
$5
TRILLION
$100
TRILLION
Source: IFC, 2017
How much is out there?
28
30. PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING,
INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN
• Public finance (incl. national development banks and
domestic SWF)
• MDBs and DFIs
COMMERCIAL
FINANCING
PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL
RESOURCES FOR RISK
INSTRUMENTS
& CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS
• Guarantees
• First Loss
UPSTREAM REFORMS
& MARKET FAILURES
• Country and Sector Policies
• Regulations and Pricing
• Institutions and Capacity
3
4
2
Financing the SDGs:
Private sector engagement needs to increase
Can commercial financing be cost-
effectively mobilized for sustainable
investment? If not…
Can upstream reforms be
put in place to address
market failures? If not…
Can risk instruments & credit
enhancements cost-effectively
cover remaining risks? If not…
Can development
objectives be resolved with
scarce public financing?
1
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31. Implementing the SDGs:
Invest in people, build resilience, and make
growth inclusive
INVESTING IN PEOPLE INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVESTING IN
RESILIENCE
•Fragility &
Conflict
•Climate and
weather shocks
•Pandemics
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
•Early childhood
development
•Gender equality
•Skills for jobs
•Equal
opportunities
•Infrastructure
•Roads
•Energy
•Sustainable
•Greening growth
•Water
management
•Private sector
•Job creation
30
32. Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017
12 largest business themes in a world economy heading for the SDGs
Implementing the SDGs:
Opportunities for the private sector
31
33. The SDGs open up US$12 trillion of market opportunities in four
economic systems:
• These economic systems represent around 60 percent of the real
economy and are critical to meeting the SDGs.
• To capture these opportunities in full, businesses need to pursue social
and environmental sustainability as avidly as they pursue market share
and shareholder value.
• If a critical mass of companies joins us in doing this now, they will
become an unstoppable force.
• If they don’t, the costs and uncertainty of unsustainable development
could swell until there is no viable world in which to do business.
Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017
Implementing the SDGs:
Opportunities for the private sector
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35. Source: Data calculations from local government statistics
Many provinces outsize entire countries
Number of provinces with a population
over 5 million, by country
Country Number of provinces
China 30
India 20
Nigeria 12
Indonesia 12
Brazil 12
Egypt 8
Mexico 8
DRC 8
Bangladesh 7
Philippines 5
Myanmar 6
Ethiopia 5
South Africa 5
Russia 4
Iran 3
Kenya 3
Nepal 3
Russia 3
Turkey 2
Colombia 2
Sudan 2
Mozambique 2
Vietnam 2
Korea 2
Malawi 2
86 provinces have a
population of over 10
million
Country
Number of
provinces
China 27
India 20
Indonesia 5
Brazil 6
Bangladesh 6
Philippines 3
Ethiopia 3
Nigeria 2
Mexico 2
Congo 2
Russia 1
Iran 1
Kenya 1
Turkey 1
S. Africa 1
Egypt 1
78 countries have a
population of under 5
million
181 provinces have a
population of over 5
million
Number of provinces with a population
over 10 million, by country
34
36. Revenue Sources For Local
Governments
TAX
Property,
Motor,
Sales, etc.
TOLLS
Roads,
Bridges, etc.
CHARGES
Bus Stations,
Taxi Parks, etc.
FEES
Licensing,
Facilities,
Fines, etc.
RENT
Land,
Buildings,
Vehicles,
etc.
SURPLUSES
from local
commercial
enterprises
INTEREST
on bank
deposits or
other funds
Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Devas, Munawwar, and Simon
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37. Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Morrell and Kopanyi
Expenses on Delegated Functions
1.Preschool Education
2.Primary and Secondary School
3.Health Care
4.Social Assistance and Poverty
Alleviation
5.Public Order and Civil
Protection
6.Other
Own Expenditures
1.Infrastructure and Public Services
2.Environment Protection, including
waste
3.Social, Cultural, Recreational
Expenditures
4.Local Economic Development
5.Social Housing
6.Urban Development
7.Civil Security
8.Transfers to Sub-local Government
Entities
9.Subsidies, Grants, Equity, In-Kind
10. Loan Repayment
11. Interest Charges
12. Guarantees Called
Sample Expenditure Plan
36
38. Implementation requires a multi-
stakeholder approach
The case of Colombia
Source: Colombia’s Postconflict Implementation Plan, National Planning Department, March 2017
Every SDG requires a multi-stakeholder approach; responsibilities are non-excludable 37
39. Colombia and the SDGs
Active national agendas determine actions related to at least 146 SDG targets - 86%
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
38
40. Colombia and the SDGs
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
An Integrated Approach
SDGPeace Agreement
Comprehensive Rural Reform
Political participation
End of conflict
Illicit drugs
Victims of the Conflict
39
Global growth: strongest since end-2010. Global growth picked up in 17Q2, reaching 3.6 percent (q/q saar), the strongest reading since 10Q4 (Figure 1A). :e uptick mainly reflects an acceleration of activity in the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan, continued robust growth in East Asia and Pacific, and strengthening growth in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Global manufacturing PMIs remained Grmly in expansionary territory in July and August, suggesting continued momentum in 17Q3. :e ongoing recovery in advanced economies and diminishing obstacles to activity among commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) continue to be key drivers of the pickup in global activity in 2017. Global median inflation edged up in July and August, reaching 2.4 percent, its highest level since March 2017.
One of the most substantive aspects of the Forward Look discussion was the first step, the framing of the development landscape and challenges.
In some measure this was the equivalent of an “SCD” for the globe. It asks, what has been driving the success or failure to reach the twin goals.
[note: the graphic is supposed to denote a propeller powering positive progress]
And looking back over the first fifteen years of the millennium, there have been some very positive drivers.
These include:
Increased trade and macro stability, as a result of a relatively strong policy consensus in support of “globalization”
This has been helped along by positive demographics during that period, where dependency ratios, or the share of workers to non-workers, was quite favorable in many parts of the developing world, and not TOO unfavorable in the Part 1 countries.
A strong global economic driver of a commodity boom, with China leading the charge, that led to real economic progress in emerging markets
And the third fin of this propeller has been progress to grow the global middle class, as people in emerging markets shifted from subsistence agriculture to urban manufacturing, making goods to be sold through integrated global supply chains to be sold, mostly to rich countries.
All of this had very salutary effects, setting a momentum for our twin goals of eliminating poverty and promoting shared prosperity.
While it’s a bit simplistic to say that all of those nice conditions have completely reversed, particularly with some indications of positive economic global prospects even in the last few months,
we can see how with a long-term perspective, that very positive set of drivers may be starting to sputter.
Overall, we see increasing economic headwinds.
The commodity supercycle that has driven economic growth over the last 70 years, first in Europe and then increasingly in emerging markets, seems to have become less positive, the prime indicator of which is oil prices (though that story has both supply and demand elements that are much more complicated).
As China faces shifting demographics of an aging population and a move from production and savings to a more consumption based model, it adjusts to slower growth.
And finally, particularly with recent populist political movements in the UK and US, we see diminished capital and trade flows, or at least possibilities that they will diminish.
All of these are indicative of more difficult global economic trends overall.
And when we look at the internal situations of many of our client (and traditional donor) member countries, we see some worrying internal vulnerabilities, including
fiscal pressures,
slow growth,
high debt levels , and
thin policy buffers that allow little room to address shocks or new challenges.
To summarize the challenges to global development that we as an institution need to work with, it’s worth talking about some of the Global Megatrends we need to address and the challenges AND opportunities they present. These are naturally all interrelated.
Demographic transitions as a megatrend across the world: There’s not a simple story here, but for much of the world, including the emerging markets, we are dealing with an aging population, where dependency ratios will grow, health care and social insurance burdens will increase, and the portion of the population that is energetic, full of new ideas and expectations, and working will diminish.
Exceptions Africa and South Asia: both have incredibly young populations, that pose other challenges, as these youth bulges need to be aggressively managed.
Urbanization is a megatrend we need to keep track of, as the last generation of youth and the emerging youth move from country-side to urban areas.
Not as much the “migration story” of people moving to cities, but as population gets more dense, its more of the “cities coming to people” as what were once small towns become dense cities.
As an example, Even during my time in Indonesia….
Climate and resources.
Climate change as a defining feature and challenge of this century, as COP21 Paris accords pointed out.
Need to figure out how to make sustainable development decisions
Greater disruptions.
Along with climate change and our global financial, economic and information connectivity, there is potential for greater disruption
That disruption also reaches more countries and has higher impact than previously
Shifts in the global economy.
As we deal with the “end of the commodity supercycle”, the demographic shifts we described earlier, and the need to remain competitive with global supply chains, the development challenges become more complicated and acute.
All of these megatrends have implications for the development challenges that the World Bank needs to help our clients face.
None of these relationships between trends and challenges are a simple one to one correspondence, for we need to deal with all of the challenges simultaneously.
Estimates for the developing world indicate that the targets for extreme poverty reduction (MDG 1.a), access to safe drinking water (MDG 7.c) and improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers (MDG 7.d) have been reached ahead of the 2015 deadline (figure 1). The targets on gender equality in primary and secondary education (MDG 3.a) and the incidence of malaria (MDG 6.c) can be met by 2015. Note that gender disparity in primary education was met in 2010.
On the other hand, progress on the remaining MDGs has been lagging, especially for education and health-related MDGs. Specifically, the primary school completion rate reached 90 percent by 2012, but progress is off track to meet the target of a universal completion rate by 2015. Progress toward MDGs related to infant, child, maternal mortality (MDGs 4a and 5a), and access to basic sanitation (MDG 7c), is lagging, and these goals are unlikely to be achieved.
The heterogeneity of outcomes at the country level translates into stark differences in progress towards the MDGs at the regional level. At one end of the spectrum, the East Asia and Pacific region is estimated to have met all of the MDGs, while at the other end Sub-Saharan Africa is off target on most of its MDGs. The regions still lagging, in particular South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, started from positions that required the most improvement, however, and they have made significant progress in absolute terms, particularly on the health MDGs that the world as a whole is struggling to meet. The relative nature by which many of the MDGs are defined tends to mask significant accomplishments in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
29 countries have 0 poverty data points; 28 countries have just 1 poverty data point; and 20 countries have just 2 poverty data points of more than 5 years apart.
The World Bank has a long history of promoting data. The World Development Indicators database began as a statistical appendix to the 1978 World Development Report (added at President Robert S. McNamara’s urging, almost as an afterthought). Today, according to a recent external evaluation, the WDI is “the most widely used knowledge product of the World Bank” with 14 million unique visitors per year and, thanks to the World Bank’s Open Data initiative, its data are freely accessible to all.
In combination with other global data sources, this will help policy makers understand global and national progress towards the SDGs, and where efforts need to be directed. (The WBG monitoring database for the SDGs is data.worldbank.org/sdgs)
On Supporting client country data production, dissemination, and use:
Today, a simple Internet search gives people access to the relevant World Development Indicators in milliseconds, and more than 1,000 household surveys from 159 countries—more than 2 million randomly sampled households representing 87 percent of the developing world’s population—that form the basis of global poverty estimates. This truly a quantum leap in data availability from where we stood 25 years ago.
Like many of its partners in improving development data, improvements in data availability require efforts to improve the national governments management of its data ecosystem in concert with targeted support for specific statistical products.
On the former, system-wide strategies have been the operational backbone of the World Bank’s statistical capacity building. 58 of 77 IDA countries have implemented such strategies, are now designing one, or are awaiting the implementation. An additional 14 countries are in the process of planning a strategy.
On the latter, the WBG is committed to helping all IDA countries to conduct multi-topic household surveys every three years, to help assess whether people’s lives are improving. When the SDGs were agreed, 77 countries lacked enough data from surveys to be able to monitor trends in the very first target, eradicating extreme poverty everywhere. We have provided financing of technical assistance to 60 countries on their household survey program, including 46 IDA countries - in 2016, 7 IDA countries conducted a survey that measures poverty. Through our regular operational programs, we are also supporting eight countries to implement improved Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems – crucial if we are to ensure no one is left behind.
To deliver the data we need for development, the Bank will pay special attention to 3 areas while working with others, producing data, and supporting country efforts to produce and use data:
Explore innovative approaches:
The World Bank Group has responded to the call for a new funding stream to support innovations for data production, analysis, and use, in collaboration with the new Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data. The goal is to catalyze innovations in technologies and approaches, where needs are closely linked to the SDGs and where techniques can be readily adapted to other regions and sectors.
Among the first round of 20 funded projects included Smart Water Monitoring and Alert with Rainfall Measurement from Telecommunications Networks in Cameroon and Morocco, Wetlands Monitoring with Earth Observation Data in Uganda, and Advancing Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems in the Service of Syrian Refugees.
This year, we opened a new round to source innovative projects to protect the environment and ‘Leave No One Behind’.
Disaggregated Data matters:
For the SDGs, disaggregated data is not only needed to better track development, but to better design and deliver the policies and services which will improve people’s lives.
UN Member States have pledged to “leave no one behind” and in our work, the World Bank recognizes that not only are certain groups excluded entirely from data, but many aggregate data and statistics in use mask what’s happening at the individual level and among groups of the most vulnerable.
In general, we see that policies are becoming more targeted, governments around the world are aiming for more granular policy making, which means more disaggregated and granular data is needed both for planning and monitoring.
For example, an estimated 1.1 billion people in the world are unable to prove their identity. That is 1 in every 7 individuals. The majority live in Africa and Asia, and more than a third are under the age of 18.
The World Bank Group’s Identification for Development (ID4D) initiative plays an essential role in helping countries move forward to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and leave no one behind.