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What is the right price?
The tipping point of price and perceived value

Gerard Loosschilder
CMethO

Ellen Lueb
Project Manager

Abigail Joffre
Today’s webinar host
Brand resilience = Price elasticity
The brand’s ability to withstand
price increases without losing revenue

2

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
How far can we increase our prices?
We can increase our prices up to the point …

3

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
How far can we increase our prices?
… where the change of price is no longer offset by the perceived
value of the product or service

4

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Demand

Price Elasticity is the slope of the price-demand curve

PS =

Δ Demand ((D2-D1)/D1)
Δ Price ((P2-P1)/P1)

D2

D1

Revenue

P2
5

P1

Price

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
A price change causes
a small change in demand,
indicating high brand resilience

A price change causes
a big change in demand ,
indicating low brand resilience
 Demand

High price elasticity

 Demand

Low price elasticity

-1 < PE < 0
Price >
Revenue >

-∞ < PE < -1
Price >
Revenue <

 Price

 Price

Two rules of thumb concerning up-price elasticity values:
If -1 < PE < 0, brand resilience is high and the business benefits
If -∞ < PE < -1, brand resilience is low and the business suffers
6

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Low price elasticity

High price elasticity

A price change causes
a small change in demand,
indicating high brand resilience

A price change causes
a big change in demand ,
indicating low brand resilience

Base Price
If PE is
And price is:
Δ change

€

Demand is:
Δ demand
Revenue is:
Δ revenue

1.00 €
10,000
units

€

10,000 €

Price sensitivity values
Low
Lower
Lowest
-1.00
-0.50
-0.33

Base Price
If PE is

1.10 €
10%

1.20 €
20%

1.30
30%

And price is:
Δ change

9,000
-10%

9,000
-10%

9,000
-10%

Demand is:
Δ demand

11,700
17%

Revenue is:
Δ revenue

9,900 €
-1%

10,800 €
8%

€

1.00 €

Price sensitivity values
High
Higher
Highest
-1.00
-2.00
-5.00
1.10 €
10%

1.10
10%

10,000
units
€

9,000
-10%

8,000
-20%

5,000
-50%

10,000 €

9,900 €
-1%

8,800 €
-12%

5,500
-45%

Two rules of thumb concerning up-price elasticity values:
If -1 < PE < 0, brand resilience is high and the business benefits
If -∞ < PE < -1, brand resilience is low and the business suffers
7

1.10 €
10%

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Portfolio Architect
•

•

Floors represent
price tiers

•

8

Rooms represent
brands

Demand can migrate
from room to room
and from floor to
floor taking the stairs

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
 Price

SKU-level price elasticity
indicates how demand migrates
… demand migrates to
several other SKUs

Price
scenario
If price
goes up…

Base case
price

9

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
 Price

Brand-level price elasticity
indicates brand resilience
… demand is more likely to migrate to SKUs within
the brand than between brands (PE Brand < PE sku )

Price
scenario
If price
goes up …

Base case
price

10

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
 Price

Line pricing is applied to mimic market reality
Prices go up together,
in a bandwidth

Price
scenario

Base case
price

11

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Unilever is more elastic than P&G and J&J
so Unilever’s brand resilience is lower
Elasticity
to up-pricing

Brand
level PE

SKU
level PE

Unilever

-1.1

Higher

-1.1

Higher

P&G

-0.9

Lower

-1.0

Lower

Johnson & Johnson

-0.6

Lower

-1.0

Lower

For a fair comparison, based on category “Personal care & hygiene”
(Category includes: bar soap, body wash/lotion, deodorant, face cream, razor foam, shampoo & styling, feminine pads)

12

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
We see the same for individual brands
Brand
level PE

Price
index

-0.9

Price
index

87

-0.7

47

-1.2

106

-0.7

248

-1.5

Unilever

Brand
level PE

65

-0.9

104

P&G

Price index = value share / volume share within “Personal care & hygiene” category
13

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Tier effects in price elasticity
Overall elasticity is higher in the mid tier
Elasticity
to up-pricing

Brand level

High

-1.1

-0.9

Lower

104

Medium

-1.0

-0.8

Lower

102

Low/Private

14

SKU level

Price index

-1.2

-1.0

Higher

84

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Mean price elasticity values to up-pricing
Elasticity to
up-pricing

Brand
level PE

SKU
level PE

Price
index

Unilever

-1.1

Higher

-1.1

88

P&G

-0.9

Lower

-1.0

109

Johnson & Johnson

-0.6

Lower

-1.0

87

For a fair comparison, based on category “Personal care & hygiene”
(Category includes: bar soap, body wash/lotion, deodorant, face cream, razor foam, shampoo & styling, feminine pads)

15

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Mean price elasticity values to up-pricing
Elasticity to
up-pricing

% A&P
on revenue

Unilever

-1.1

10.6%

P&G

-0.9

12.0%

Johnson & Johnson

16

Brand
level PE

-0.6

4.8%

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
What to do with these Pricing Insights?
At low price elasticity
•

A brand/SKU level up-price
elasticity value of -1 < PE < 0

•

A brand/SKU level up-price
elasticity value of -∞ < PE < -1

•

The market sees more value in
the brand and its products than
expressed by the price

•

The market sees less value in
the brand and its products than
expressed by the price

•

17

At high price elasticity

The brand can leverage the
value opportunity to move
closer to the tipping point
(short term opportunity)

•

The brand should, or should
have, invested in the brand
(long term opportunity)

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Identifying the balance between price and value
can be done using a simulator and optimizer

18

SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
Share your thoughts online:

#SKIMwebinar

Go to www.skimgroup.com/webinars
for today’s presentation slides and more!
Gerard Loosschilder

Ellen Lueb

Abigail Joffre

Chief Methodology Officer
g.loosschilder@skimgroup.com
@gloosschilder

Project Manager
e.lueb@skimgroup.com

a.joffre@skimgroup.com
+1 201 963 8430
@SKIMgroup

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Webinar: What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value

  • 1. Share your thoughts online: #SKIMwebinar What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value Gerard Loosschilder CMethO Ellen Lueb Project Manager Abigail Joffre Today’s webinar host
  • 2. Brand resilience = Price elasticity The brand’s ability to withstand price increases without losing revenue 2 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 3. How far can we increase our prices? We can increase our prices up to the point … 3 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 4. How far can we increase our prices? … where the change of price is no longer offset by the perceived value of the product or service 4 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 5. Demand Price Elasticity is the slope of the price-demand curve PS = Δ Demand ((D2-D1)/D1) Δ Price ((P2-P1)/P1) D2 D1 Revenue P2 5 P1 Price SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 6. A price change causes a small change in demand, indicating high brand resilience A price change causes a big change in demand , indicating low brand resilience  Demand High price elasticity  Demand Low price elasticity -1 < PE < 0 Price > Revenue > -∞ < PE < -1 Price > Revenue <  Price  Price Two rules of thumb concerning up-price elasticity values: If -1 < PE < 0, brand resilience is high and the business benefits If -∞ < PE < -1, brand resilience is low and the business suffers 6 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 7. Low price elasticity High price elasticity A price change causes a small change in demand, indicating high brand resilience A price change causes a big change in demand , indicating low brand resilience Base Price If PE is And price is: Δ change € Demand is: Δ demand Revenue is: Δ revenue 1.00 € 10,000 units € 10,000 € Price sensitivity values Low Lower Lowest -1.00 -0.50 -0.33 Base Price If PE is 1.10 € 10% 1.20 € 20% 1.30 30% And price is: Δ change 9,000 -10% 9,000 -10% 9,000 -10% Demand is: Δ demand 11,700 17% Revenue is: Δ revenue 9,900 € -1% 10,800 € 8% € 1.00 € Price sensitivity values High Higher Highest -1.00 -2.00 -5.00 1.10 € 10% 1.10 10% 10,000 units € 9,000 -10% 8,000 -20% 5,000 -50% 10,000 € 9,900 € -1% 8,800 € -12% 5,500 -45% Two rules of thumb concerning up-price elasticity values: If -1 < PE < 0, brand resilience is high and the business benefits If -∞ < PE < -1, brand resilience is low and the business suffers 7 1.10 € 10% SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 8. Portfolio Architect • • Floors represent price tiers • 8 Rooms represent brands Demand can migrate from room to room and from floor to floor taking the stairs SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 9.  Price SKU-level price elasticity indicates how demand migrates … demand migrates to several other SKUs Price scenario If price goes up… Base case price 9 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 10.  Price Brand-level price elasticity indicates brand resilience … demand is more likely to migrate to SKUs within the brand than between brands (PE Brand < PE sku ) Price scenario If price goes up … Base case price 10 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 11.  Price Line pricing is applied to mimic market reality Prices go up together, in a bandwidth Price scenario Base case price 11 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 12. Unilever is more elastic than P&G and J&J so Unilever’s brand resilience is lower Elasticity to up-pricing Brand level PE SKU level PE Unilever -1.1 Higher -1.1 Higher P&G -0.9 Lower -1.0 Lower Johnson & Johnson -0.6 Lower -1.0 Lower For a fair comparison, based on category “Personal care & hygiene” (Category includes: bar soap, body wash/lotion, deodorant, face cream, razor foam, shampoo & styling, feminine pads) 12 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 13. We see the same for individual brands Brand level PE Price index -0.9 Price index 87 -0.7 47 -1.2 106 -0.7 248 -1.5 Unilever Brand level PE 65 -0.9 104 P&G Price index = value share / volume share within “Personal care & hygiene” category 13 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 14. Tier effects in price elasticity Overall elasticity is higher in the mid tier Elasticity to up-pricing Brand level High -1.1 -0.9 Lower 104 Medium -1.0 -0.8 Lower 102 Low/Private 14 SKU level Price index -1.2 -1.0 Higher 84 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 15. Mean price elasticity values to up-pricing Elasticity to up-pricing Brand level PE SKU level PE Price index Unilever -1.1 Higher -1.1 88 P&G -0.9 Lower -1.0 109 Johnson & Johnson -0.6 Lower -1.0 87 For a fair comparison, based on category “Personal care & hygiene” (Category includes: bar soap, body wash/lotion, deodorant, face cream, razor foam, shampoo & styling, feminine pads) 15 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 16. Mean price elasticity values to up-pricing Elasticity to up-pricing % A&P on revenue Unilever -1.1 10.6% P&G -0.9 12.0% Johnson & Johnson 16 Brand level PE -0.6 4.8% SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 17. What to do with these Pricing Insights? At low price elasticity • A brand/SKU level up-price elasticity value of -1 < PE < 0 • A brand/SKU level up-price elasticity value of -∞ < PE < -1 • The market sees more value in the brand and its products than expressed by the price • The market sees less value in the brand and its products than expressed by the price • 17 At high price elasticity The brand can leverage the value opportunity to move closer to the tipping point (short term opportunity) • The brand should, or should have, invested in the brand (long term opportunity) SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 18. Identifying the balance between price and value can be done using a simulator and optimizer 18 SKIM Webinar “What is the right price? The tipping point of price and perceived value”
  • 19. Share your thoughts online: #SKIMwebinar Go to www.skimgroup.com/webinars for today’s presentation slides and more! Gerard Loosschilder Ellen Lueb Abigail Joffre Chief Methodology Officer g.loosschilder@skimgroup.com @gloosschilder Project Manager e.lueb@skimgroup.com a.joffre@skimgroup.com +1 201 963 8430 @SKIMgroup