CII - Odisha Panel Discussions : "Export Strategy in Covid Crisis: Resurgence & its Way Ahead"

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SN Panigrahi is a Versatile Practitioner, Strategist, Energetic Coach, Learning Enabler & Public Speaker.
He is an International-Corporate Trainer, Mentor & Author
He has diverse experience and expertise in Project Management, Contract
Management, Supply Chain Management, Procurement, Strategic Sourcing,
Global Sourcing, Logistics, Exports & Imports, Indirect Taxes – GST etc.
He had done more than 150 Workshops Globally
Published more than 500 Articles; 80 + YouTubes & more than
80 SlideShares Presentations
He is an Engineer + MBA +PGD ISO 9000 / TQM with around 30 Yrs of
Experience
He is a certified PMP® from PMI (USA) and become PMI India
Champion in 2016
Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt from Exemplar Global / KPMG
Trained in COD for 31/2 Yrs. on Strategy & Leadership
GST Certified – MSME – Tech. Dev. Centre (Govt of India)
ZED Consultant – Certified by QCI – MSME (Govt of India)
Member Board of Studies, IIMM
Co-Chairman, Indirect Tax Committee, FTAPCCI
Empanelled Faculty in NI MSME
He has shared his domain expertise in various forums as a speaker & presented a number of papers in various national and
international public forums and received a number of awards for his writings and contribution to business thoughts.
SN Panigrahi
9652571117
snpanigrahi1963@gmail.com
Hyderabad
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Objectives:
• To discover new export opportunities.
• Mentorship and guidance to budding Exporters.
• To promote local products in the global market.
• To establish a dialogue with EXIM bank.
• To deliberate on government schemes and Incentives for exporters.
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COVID-19
Pandemic
Boarder
Tensions with
Neighbours
Trade Wars &
Global
Economic Slow
Down
Uncertainties
Galore
Yet
Opportunities
To
Prosper
Growth
Imperative -
Innovate
Focus Marketing
on select
Countries with
Select Services
Strengthen
India Inc. Image
/ Brand
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Global Coronavirus
Cases:13,696,813
Deaths: 586,887
India
Cases : 970,169
Deaths : 24,929
Affected Supplies,
Transport
Transactions
around the world
World Merchandise
Trade Volume
Decreased by 2.0%
in the First Quarter
of 2020
Forecasts of global
economic growth
down from around
3.0 percent to 2.4
percent.
Flip-Flop Fall &
Rebounds in Stock
Markets;
Crash in Global Oil
Prices.
Disrupted
Manufacturing
Operations around
the world
The Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) is an index of
the prevailing direction
of economic trends in the
manufacturing and service
sectors.
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In the Autumn life starts anew
all over again when old
leaves fall off and the
green leaves start turning to
beautiful shades
- SN Panigrahi
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Rank Country
2019 Export
Sales
US$ Billions
2018-19
1. China $2,499 +0.2%
2. United States $1,645 -1.2%
3. Germany $1,486 -4.5%
4. Netherlands $ 721 -0.8%
5. Japan $ 705 -4.4%
6. France $ 555 -2.5%
7. South Korea $ 542 -10.4%
8. Italy $ 541 -1.5%
9. Hong Kong $ 535 -5.9%
10. Mexico $ 472 +4.7%
Rank Country
2019 Export
Sale
US$ Billions
2018-19
11. United Kingdom $ 467 -4.8%
12. Belgium $ 451 -3.5%
13. Canada $ 446 -0.9%
14. Russia $ 422 -5.9%
15. Singapore $ 390 -5.3%
16. Spain $ 339 -2.2%
17. Taiwan $ 329 -1.4%
18. India $ 322 -0.4%
20. Switzerland $ 314 +1.1%
19. Vietnam $ 305 +24.9%
Overall, total export products were worth an estimated US$18.74 trillion in 2019. That dollar amount reflects a
13.4% increase over the 5-year period starting in 2015 but a -3.7% drop from $19.456 trillion one year
earlier during 2018.
Source : http://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-export-countries/
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The government of India has set up an export
target of $900 billion by 2020 in the Foreign
Trade Policy 2015-2020
India's Exports
in US$ Billions
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019-
20
Merchandise
Exports 314.4 310.3 262.3 275.9 303.5 331 314.31
Service Exports 151.8 158.1 154.3 164.2 195.1 205.8 214.14
Total 466.2 468.4 416.6 440.1 498.6 536.8 528.45
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*Note: i) The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for May 2020. The data for June 2020 is an estimation,
which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release ii) the figures in bracket are growth rates vis-à-vis corresponding
period of last year.
Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
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The trade surplus for June 2020 was estimated at $790 million as against the
deficit of $15.28 billion in June 2019. This is the first time in the last decade
that India is a net exporter.
Merchandise Exports in June2020 were USD21.91billion, as compared to
USD25.01billion in June 2019,exhibiting a negative growth of (-)12.41per
cent.
Meanwhile, imports in the month were recorded at $21.11 billion or
Rs.1,59,892.42 crore, down 47.59 per cent lower in Dollar terms and 42.85
per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of $40.29 billion or Rs 2,79,771.07
crore in June last year.
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India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-June2020-21* are
estimated to be USD 101.02 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)25.92 per cent over
the same period last year.
Overall imports in April-June 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 89.31 billion, exhibiting a
negative growth of (-)45.10per cent over the same period last year.
Cumulative Value of Merchandise Exports for the period April-June 2020-21 was
USD51.32billion (Rs.3,89,016.27crore) as against USD81.08billion (Rs.5,63,984.51crore)
during the period April-June 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-)36.71per cent in
Dollar terms
Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
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Major commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during June 2020 vis-à-vis
June 2019 are Iron Ore (63.11%), Oil seeds (50.48%), Rice (32.72%), Oil meals (27.36%),
Spices (22.92%), Other cereals (19.35%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (19.06%),
Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (13.8%), Fruits & vegetables
(11.01%), Drugs & pharmaceuticals (9.89%), Tobacco (3.56%) and Coffee (2.58%).
Major commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during June 2020 vis-à-vis
June 2019 are Gems & jewellery (-50.06%), Leather & leather products (-40.47%), RMG of all
textiles (-34.84%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-31.98%), Petroleum
products (-31.65%), Cashew (-27.02%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (-25.88%),
Handicrafts excl. hand-made carpet (-23.95%), Electronic goods (-22.52%), Jute mfg.
including floor covering (-14.06%), Ceramic products & glassware (-10.91%), Carpet (-
10.46%), Marine products (-9.74%), Tea (-8.01%), Engineering goods (-7.5%), Plastic &
Linoleum (-4.4%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (-3.83%) and Mica,
Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (-1.13%).
Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
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•Imports in June2020 were USD21.11billion (Rs.1,59,892.42crore), which was 47.59per cent lower in Dollar
terms and 42.85per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD40.29billion (Rs2,79,771.07crore) in
June2019.
•Cumulative value of imports for the period April-June 2020-21 was USD60.44billion (Rs.4,58,395.18crore), as
against USD127.04billion (Rs.8,83,652.93crore) during the period April-June 2019-20, registering a negative
growth of (-)52.43per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of (-)48.12per cent in Rupee terms).
•Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in June2020 over the corresponding month of last
year are:
Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
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The following export product groups categorize the highest dollar value in Indian global shipments during
2019. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from
India.
 Mineral fuels including oil: US$44.1 billion (13.7% of total exports)
 Gems, precious metals: $36.7 billion (11.4%)
 Machinery including computers: $21.2 billion (6.6%)
 Organic chemicals: $18.3 billion (5.7%)
 Vehicles: $17.2 billion (5.3%)
 Pharmaceuticals: $16.1 billion (5%)
 Electrical machinery, equipment: $14.7 billion (4.5%)
 Iron, steel: $9.7 billion (3%)
 Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): $8.6 billion (2.7%)
 Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $7.9 billion (2.5%)
India’s top 10 exports accounted for roughly three-fifths (60.2%) of the
overall value of its global shipments.
Source : www.worldstopexports.com/
16Source : www.worldstopexports.com/
Below is a list highlighting 15 of India’s top trading partners in terms of countries that imported the most
Indian shipments by dollar value during 2019. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total
Indian exports.
1.United States: US$54.2 billion (16.8% of India’s totalexports)
2.United Arab Emirates: $29.7 billion (9.2%)
3.China: $17 billion (5.3%)
4.Hong Kong: $11.5 billion (3.5%)
5.Singapore: $10.7 billion (3.3%)
6.United Kingdom: $8.82 billion (2.7%)
7.Netherlands: $8.75 billion (2.7%)
8.Germany: $8.6 billion (2.7%)
9.Bangladesh: $8.3 billion (2.6%)
10.Nepal: $7 billion (2.2%)
11.Belgium: $6.3 billion (2%)
12.Malaysia: $6.14 billion (1.9%)
13.Saudi Arabia: $6.05 billion (1.9%)
14.Vietnam: $5.49 billion (1.7%)
15.France: $5.45 billion (1.7%)
About three-fifths (60.1%) of Indian exports in 2019 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.
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World Merchandise Trade Volume Decreased by 2.0% in the First Quarter of 2020 over the previous
quarter, in seasonal adjusted terms.. World imports contracted by 1.9%
In value terms, world exports and imports decreased at about 6.2% and 5.3% in year-on-year terms.
Lockdown measures across the globe to fight the spread of COVID-19 took a toll on global demand,
production and trade.
Source: WTO-UNCTAD
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India's Exports
In US$ Billions FY 2020-21
April May June Total' Arr-Jun'2020
Merchandise Exports 10.36 19.05 21.91 51.32
Service Exports 16.45 16.77 16.48 49.7
Total 26.81 35.82 38.39 101.02
China Exports
Exports from China unexpectedly increased by 0.5 percent year-on-year to USD 213.57 billion in
June 2020, after a 3.3 percent fall in the previous month and defying market expectations of a 1.5
percent drop, as global demand started to improve after more countries lifted coronavirus-led
lockdown restrictions and social distancing measures.
Imports rose for the first time since the pandemic struck, by 2.7 percent year on year to 167.2
billion U.S. dollars, bouncing from a 3.3-percent decline in May.
Merchandise exports in June 2020 stood at $21.91 billion, as compared to $25.01 billion in
June 2019, a decline of 12.41 per cent year-on-year.
India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-June2020-21* are estimated
to be USD 101.02 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)25.92 per cent over the same period
last year.
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Yr- 2000
World GDP : US$ 33.858 Trillion
India GDP : US$ 0.468 Trillion (1.36% of World GDP)
China GDP : USD$ 1.211 Trillion (3.58% of World GDP)
Yr - 2019
World GDP : UD$ 87.752 Trillion
India GDP : US$ 2.875 Trillion (3.28% of World GDP)
China GDP : US$ 14.342 Trillion (16.34% of World GDP)
World Bank Data
The Indian economy is expected to shrink by 5% in the current financial year 2020-21.
While IMF expects the Indian economy to contract by 4.5% following a longer period of
lockdown and slower recovery, the World Bank says it India's GDP to contract 3.2%.
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China’s GDP growth has swung back sharply
into the black in the April-June quarter, driven
by a bounce back in manufacturing output and
a public spending boost. This signals a major
turnaround in the world’s second largest
economy, even as much of the economies
globally are reeling under the impact of
the Covid-19 spread.
The world's second-largest economy grew by
3.2 percent in April-June from a year earlier,
reversing a 6.8-percent decline in the first
quarter – the first contraction since at least
1992, according to China's National Bureau of
Statistics. In the first half of 2020, China's
economy declined by 1.6 percent year on year. A V-shaped recovery – a sharp fall followed by an
equally sharp recovery.
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•To focus on countries which are providing demand stimulus like US, UK
and many other advanced and emerging markets;Country Focus
•Explore countries having high anti-China sentiments led by US including
EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etcEncash Anti-China
Sentiments
Encourage Domestic Sourcing – Re-Design Our Export Promotion
Schemes.
There is Need to Fast Localise to Minimise Import Dependency.
Encourage Domestic
Sourcing
Revisit economies depending on crude & commodities exports as prices
of such products are likely to be subdued (Middle East, LAC and CIS)
Revisit Markets
Organizations need to re-invent their businesses post COVID-19,
exploring it from a marketing perspective & Changes taken place
Worldover.
Re-Strategize Product –
Market Mix
Increasing value added component of our exports – Need to upgrade and
meet Higher Standards in Terms of Quality, Delivery and Other
Certification Requirements and Promote Brand Image.
Encouraging Value-
Added Exports
Export Strategy
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With in India Out side India
Boycott Made in China
Non-Essential Goods
Encourage India Made
Local Products
Govt. alone can’t Do.
As a Citizen of India, it’s
Everyone’s
Responsibility v
Let’s Unite
Show Our Purchasing
Power to the World
Trust on China Fading
Away
Fill the Gap where China
Forced to Exit.
Tap those Products &
Markets
Countries Include US,
EU, Japan, South Korea,
Australia, New Zealand,
Canada, etc
Build “Made in India”
Brand Image
Advantage
Growth of
Domestic
Market
Export Growth
“Make it Happen Faster”
before slip out of hand
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There are websites like Alibaba such as Indiamart
and TradeIndia, who have been introducing buyers to
sellers like a matchmaker. However they are no way
Near to Alibaba.com in terms of Scale & Global Reach
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Strengthen India Inc. image/brand
Focus marketing on select countries with select services
Build customer credibility
Promote Acceptability of the ‘offshore’ concept
Improve service experience for customers
Invest in promoting trials, Innovate to Create Customer Required
Products & Services
Align Legal and Regulatory Structure
“Make it Happen” – Faster before grabbed by some other
Export Strategy
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The country required political will to take on China. There
are ample tariff and non-tariff barriers available to execute
this.
The cheap Chinese imports were killing jobs and
manufacturing capacities in India, along with increasing
security risks in some sectors. Trade should be done on
equal footing. The government must consider improving the
standards for Indian products and follow up with policies and
incentives to build and strengthen indigenous capability.
National co-convenor, Swadeshi Jagran Manch
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Phamacetical - API's
Basic Chemicals
Electrical & Electronics
Furniture & Beddings
Bicycles
Organic Chemicals
Machinery - Capital
Goods
Fertilizers
Automobile Parts
Nuclear Reactors,
Boilers & Parts
68%
60%
60%
57%
50%
38%
32%
28%
25%
17%
India’s Dependence on China
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More than 100 Chinese firms have a presence in India. Chinese state-owned companies have
bagged huge projects here.
These include Sinosteel, Shougang International, Baoshan Iron & Steel, Sany Heavy Industry,
Chongqing Lifan Industry, China Dongfang International, and Sino Hydro Corporation. In
telecom, three Chinese firms, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo have a 50% share of the mobile handset
market.
India Imports other Industrial Items such as chemicals, automotive components, consumer
electronics and pharmaceuticals.
which include wrist watches, wall clocks, ampoules, glass rods and tubes, hair cream, hair
shampoos, face powder, eye and lip make up preparations, printing ink, paints and varnishes,
and some tobacco items
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In 2018-19, India’s exports to China were mere $16.7 billion, while imports were $70.3
billion, leaving a trade deficit of $53.6 billion.
It needs to be acknowledged that China’s exports to India account for only 2% of its total
exports, so even if Indians boycott all the goods imported from China, it will not make as big
an impact on China.
Data also suggests that China is India’s largest trading partner, but the trade is heavily
skewed in favour of China.
Thus initiating a trade war when Indian manufacturing ability is limited specially in some
Industrial Products is not going to favor India, but such Initiation forces Domestic Souring and
over a period of Time definitely Builds up a Strong Manufacturing Base.
India’s Exports to China were
mere $16.7 billion
India’s Imports from China
were mere $70.3 billion
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Imports Substitution
We are encouraged by the statement of the Hon'ble Prime Minister focusing
on imports substitution – Focal to Local.
Imports substitution should be an integral part of the Foreign Trade Policy
as dollar saved is as good as dollar earned and both generate economic
activity.
While an increase in tariff can be one way to achieve it, the more effective
strategy would be to provide an ecosystem which addresses the cost
disability of Indian manufacturing leading to such imports. Import
substitution manufacturing should attract interest subvention on credit,
offsetting inland freight disadvantage besides equalization of import tariff
from free trade areas.
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India Made PPE’s
India has become the world's second largest manufacturer of (PPE) body coveralls within a short time span
of two months
India is self-sufficient in the production of PPE kit, masks, ventilators, and testing kits, and will start
exporting these items soon.“
India Made Korona Testing Kits
The Corosure Kit has been developed indigenously and is much cheaper than other kits. The country
requires cheap and reliable testing for the country which can help control the pandemic. The kit has
received ICMR approval with the highest score and DCGI approved with a very high sensitivity and
specificity
IIT Delhi, which became the first academic institute to get Indian Council of Medical Research nod for a
COVID-19 testing method, gave non-exclusive open licence to 10 companies for commercializing the test,
but with a price rider of Rs 500 for the assay needed for testing.
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SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 36
Industry body FISME has identified over 600 items which could be produced locally to
reduce import dependence from China.
As many as 666 items such as electric lamps, wooden furniture, tricycles and ski-boots imported from
China could be produced locally and hence cut trade deficit with the neighbouring country by about $10
billion a year, industry body Federation of Indian Micro and Small & Medium Enterprises (FISME) has
found.
In some cases, for instance low-value items, local capability can be easily built and import substitution can
happen.
FISME carried out the analysis following a directive from the Commerce Ministry to ascertain products
where import dependence could be substantially reduced.
"We are looking at strengthening Indian manufacturing. Manufacturing is strengthened by incentives, by
cutting down on unnecessary imports. There are non-competitive imports where Indian industry is not
strong. We are looking into these issues and trying to take action. There are tariff measures, non-tariff
measures and many other measures to promote local industry,"
SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 37
Following the border standoff in Ladakh, there has been a clamour for Indians to boycott products from
China.
Parth Jindal, managing director of JSW Cement, said that the JSW Group have a net import of $400
million from China annually and we pledge to bring this down to zero in the next 24 months
“The idea is to strengthen the supply chain within the country and in that process become self-reliant to
whatever extent we can. It is a directional shift that we are looking to make,” Jayant Acharya, director
(commercial) at JSW Steel.
One of the leading bicycle manufacturers in India, Hero Cycles, has announced the cancellation of
planned business involving China worth Rs. 900 crore.
The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), which represents 7 crore traders and 40,000 trade
associations, has announced boycott of 3,000 Chinese products.
SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 38
Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra already pausing three
Chinese projects worth Rs 5,000 crore.
Along with the Maharashtra government, Yogi Adityanath’s Uttar Pradesh,
and Manohar Lal Khattar’s Haryana have also adopted a tough stance on
imports from China, and have stepped up to boycott Chinese companies and
products.
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Some Govt.
Protection
Industry Mind Set
Need to Change.
Not to Depend on
Subsidies only
Focus Business
Expansion
Scale & Reach
Innovation IT Adoption
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For strong, resilient and ‘’Aatma Nirabhar Bharat’’, trade
bodies have an important role to play: Shri Piyush Goyal
As a country, Shri Goyal added that, India should focus on
Investment, Infrastructure, and Innovation in the post-covid
world, by increasing the production, improving quality of
products, trying higher economies of scale, smooth logistics
channels, competitive pricing and using innovative practices.
The government and trade bodies must work together to boost
the growth, to bringing more employment, jobs to youth and
engaging with the world with strength and not closing the door
for the world but being self-sufficient “Aatma Nirbhar Bharat “ .
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Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said certain sectors have been identified where
there is a huge potential for India to cut its import dependence, boost exports and promote domestic
manufacturing.
He said that on 12 sectors -- food processing; organic farming; iron; aluminium and copper;
agrochemicals; electronics; industrial machinery; furniture; leather and shoes; auto parts; textiles;
and coveralls, masks, sanitisers and ventilators -- work have been moving at a faster pace. The
minister added that COVID-19 pandemic has taught a big lesson that over-dependence on certain
geographies can cause a lot of difficulties in the time of stress.
"In our own ways, we have identified sectors where import substitution or export potential is there in a big
way and I am sure that we can all work together to make this happen. We are looking at more sectors and
I would urge all of you to look at new sectors where we can really promote Indian manufacturing," Goyal
said while addressing the annual general meeting of Bombay Chamber of Commerce.
He also said certain statistics and indicators are reflecting that India''s economy is reviving. Citing some
examples, he said freight movement in railways, power consumption, operations in the cement industry,
and export numbers are "clearly demonstrating that we are moving very rapidly towards a reasonable level
of operation".
12 Sectors Identified
to Cut its Import Dependence, Boost Exports and Promote
Domestic Manufacturing
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The Government of India announced a countrywide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-
19 pandemic in the country. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) in
coordination with Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) is issuing various customs relief
measures for the smooth conduct of assessment and clearance of goods.
Following measures taken by CBIC:
 Electronic Communication of PDF Gate Pass and Final OoC (Out of Charge) Bill of
Entry
 Exemption of Customs Duties and Health Cess on Medical Equipment
 Clearance of Goods Without Original Certificate of Origin
 Acceptance of Undertaking in Lieu of Bond
 24X7 Clearance
 Facilitation measures of Clearnce of Import Cargo due to delay arising in Outbreak of
COVID-19.
 Relaxations in Late Fee, Demurrages
 E-sanchit
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 Benefits under MEIS for any item/tariff line /HS Code currently listed in Appendix 3B, Table 2
(MEIS Schedule) will be available only up to 31 Dec 2020;
 Prior to 31 Dec 2020, as and when an item/tariff line/HS code is notified to be covered under
RoDTEP Scheme, it would at the same time be removed from coverage under MEIS;
 Detailed operational framework for the Scheme for RoDTEP will be notified separately
 Relaxation of time for submission of Physical Copy of Transport and Marketing Assistance
Scheme (TMA) Application.
 Electronic filling and Issuance of Preferential Certificate of Origin for India’s Exports
 Retrospective issuance of Certificate of Origin (COO) under India’s Trade Agreement
 The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has recently issued a Trade Notice No. 16/2020-21
dated 25.06.2020, notifying launch of new DGFT platform and Digital delivery of IEC related
services. The platform is scheduled to go live on 13th July 2020 and will be accessible through the
existing DGFT website (www.dgft.gov.in).
 In the first phase, the website will cater to services related to the IEC issuance, modification,
amendments etc. along with a chatbot. In the next phase, similar other online modules relating to
Advance Authorization (AA), EPCG and Export Obligation Discharge Certificate will be rolled out.
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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVZ
ScNa_leR8XbYINEwTFwQ/videos
SN Panigrahi
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Contact Details:
SN Panigrahi
9652571117
snpanigrahi1963@gmail.com 52
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  • 1. 1
  • 2. 2 SN Panigrahi is a Versatile Practitioner, Strategist, Energetic Coach, Learning Enabler & Public Speaker. He is an International-Corporate Trainer, Mentor & Author He has diverse experience and expertise in Project Management, Contract Management, Supply Chain Management, Procurement, Strategic Sourcing, Global Sourcing, Logistics, Exports & Imports, Indirect Taxes – GST etc. He had done more than 150 Workshops Globally Published more than 500 Articles; 80 + YouTubes & more than 80 SlideShares Presentations He is an Engineer + MBA +PGD ISO 9000 / TQM with around 30 Yrs of Experience He is a certified PMP® from PMI (USA) and become PMI India Champion in 2016 Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt from Exemplar Global / KPMG Trained in COD for 31/2 Yrs. on Strategy & Leadership GST Certified – MSME – Tech. Dev. Centre (Govt of India) ZED Consultant – Certified by QCI – MSME (Govt of India) Member Board of Studies, IIMM Co-Chairman, Indirect Tax Committee, FTAPCCI Empanelled Faculty in NI MSME He has shared his domain expertise in various forums as a speaker & presented a number of papers in various national and international public forums and received a number of awards for his writings and contribution to business thoughts. SN Panigrahi 9652571117 snpanigrahi1963@gmail.com Hyderabad
  • 3. 3 Objectives: • To discover new export opportunities. • Mentorship and guidance to budding Exporters. • To promote local products in the global market. • To establish a dialogue with EXIM bank. • To deliberate on government schemes and Incentives for exporters.
  • 4. 4 COVID-19 Pandemic Boarder Tensions with Neighbours Trade Wars & Global Economic Slow Down Uncertainties Galore Yet Opportunities To Prosper Growth Imperative - Innovate Focus Marketing on select Countries with Select Services Strengthen India Inc. Image / Brand
  • 5. 5 Global Coronavirus Cases:13,696,813 Deaths: 586,887 India Cases : 970,169 Deaths : 24,929 Affected Supplies, Transport Transactions around the world World Merchandise Trade Volume Decreased by 2.0% in the First Quarter of 2020 Forecasts of global economic growth down from around 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent. Flip-Flop Fall & Rebounds in Stock Markets; Crash in Global Oil Prices. Disrupted Manufacturing Operations around the world The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors.
  • 6. 6 In the Autumn life starts anew all over again when old leaves fall off and the green leaves start turning to beautiful shades - SN Panigrahi
  • 7. 7
  • 8. 8 Rank Country 2019 Export Sales US$ Billions 2018-19 1. China $2,499 +0.2% 2. United States $1,645 -1.2% 3. Germany $1,486 -4.5% 4. Netherlands $ 721 -0.8% 5. Japan $ 705 -4.4% 6. France $ 555 -2.5% 7. South Korea $ 542 -10.4% 8. Italy $ 541 -1.5% 9. Hong Kong $ 535 -5.9% 10. Mexico $ 472 +4.7% Rank Country 2019 Export Sale US$ Billions 2018-19 11. United Kingdom $ 467 -4.8% 12. Belgium $ 451 -3.5% 13. Canada $ 446 -0.9% 14. Russia $ 422 -5.9% 15. Singapore $ 390 -5.3% 16. Spain $ 339 -2.2% 17. Taiwan $ 329 -1.4% 18. India $ 322 -0.4% 20. Switzerland $ 314 +1.1% 19. Vietnam $ 305 +24.9% Overall, total export products were worth an estimated US$18.74 trillion in 2019. That dollar amount reflects a 13.4% increase over the 5-year period starting in 2015 but a -3.7% drop from $19.456 trillion one year earlier during 2018. Source : http://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-export-countries/
  • 9. 9 The government of India has set up an export target of $900 billion by 2020 in the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020 India's Exports in US$ Billions 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 Merchandise Exports 314.4 310.3 262.3 275.9 303.5 331 314.31 Service Exports 151.8 158.1 154.3 164.2 195.1 205.8 214.14 Total 466.2 468.4 416.6 440.1 498.6 536.8 528.45
  • 10. 10 *Note: i) The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for May 2020. The data for June 2020 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release ii) the figures in bracket are growth rates vis-à-vis corresponding period of last year. Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
  • 11. 11 The trade surplus for June 2020 was estimated at $790 million as against the deficit of $15.28 billion in June 2019. This is the first time in the last decade that India is a net exporter. Merchandise Exports in June2020 were USD21.91billion, as compared to USD25.01billion in June 2019,exhibiting a negative growth of (-)12.41per cent. Meanwhile, imports in the month were recorded at $21.11 billion or Rs.1,59,892.42 crore, down 47.59 per cent lower in Dollar terms and 42.85 per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of $40.29 billion or Rs 2,79,771.07 crore in June last year.
  • 12. 12 India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-June2020-21* are estimated to be USD 101.02 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)25.92 per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-June 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 89.31 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)45.10per cent over the same period last year. Cumulative Value of Merchandise Exports for the period April-June 2020-21 was USD51.32billion (Rs.3,89,016.27crore) as against USD81.08billion (Rs.5,63,984.51crore) during the period April-June 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-)36.71per cent in Dollar terms Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
  • 13. 13 Major commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during June 2020 vis-à-vis June 2019 are Iron Ore (63.11%), Oil seeds (50.48%), Rice (32.72%), Oil meals (27.36%), Spices (22.92%), Other cereals (19.35%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (19.06%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (13.8%), Fruits & vegetables (11.01%), Drugs & pharmaceuticals (9.89%), Tobacco (3.56%) and Coffee (2.58%). Major commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during June 2020 vis-à-vis June 2019 are Gems & jewellery (-50.06%), Leather & leather products (-40.47%), RMG of all textiles (-34.84%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-31.98%), Petroleum products (-31.65%), Cashew (-27.02%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (-25.88%), Handicrafts excl. hand-made carpet (-23.95%), Electronic goods (-22.52%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (-14.06%), Ceramic products & glassware (-10.91%), Carpet (- 10.46%), Marine products (-9.74%), Tea (-8.01%), Engineering goods (-7.5%), Plastic & Linoleum (-4.4%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (-3.83%) and Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (-1.13%). Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
  • 14. 14 •Imports in June2020 were USD21.11billion (Rs.1,59,892.42crore), which was 47.59per cent lower in Dollar terms and 42.85per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD40.29billion (Rs2,79,771.07crore) in June2019. •Cumulative value of imports for the period April-June 2020-21 was USD60.44billion (Rs.4,58,395.18crore), as against USD127.04billion (Rs.8,83,652.93crore) during the period April-June 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-)52.43per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of (-)48.12per cent in Rupee terms). •Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in June2020 over the corresponding month of last year are: Source : https://commerce.gov.in/writereaddata/UploadedFile/NTESCL_637304319397830710_Press_Release_June_2020.pdf
  • 15. 15 The following export product groups categorize the highest dollar value in Indian global shipments during 2019. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from India.  Mineral fuels including oil: US$44.1 billion (13.7% of total exports)  Gems, precious metals: $36.7 billion (11.4%)  Machinery including computers: $21.2 billion (6.6%)  Organic chemicals: $18.3 billion (5.7%)  Vehicles: $17.2 billion (5.3%)  Pharmaceuticals: $16.1 billion (5%)  Electrical machinery, equipment: $14.7 billion (4.5%)  Iron, steel: $9.7 billion (3%)  Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): $8.6 billion (2.7%)  Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $7.9 billion (2.5%) India’s top 10 exports accounted for roughly three-fifths (60.2%) of the overall value of its global shipments. Source : www.worldstopexports.com/
  • 16. 16Source : www.worldstopexports.com/ Below is a list highlighting 15 of India’s top trading partners in terms of countries that imported the most Indian shipments by dollar value during 2019. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Indian exports. 1.United States: US$54.2 billion (16.8% of India’s totalexports) 2.United Arab Emirates: $29.7 billion (9.2%) 3.China: $17 billion (5.3%) 4.Hong Kong: $11.5 billion (3.5%) 5.Singapore: $10.7 billion (3.3%) 6.United Kingdom: $8.82 billion (2.7%) 7.Netherlands: $8.75 billion (2.7%) 8.Germany: $8.6 billion (2.7%) 9.Bangladesh: $8.3 billion (2.6%) 10.Nepal: $7 billion (2.2%) 11.Belgium: $6.3 billion (2%) 12.Malaysia: $6.14 billion (1.9%) 13.Saudi Arabia: $6.05 billion (1.9%) 14.Vietnam: $5.49 billion (1.7%) 15.France: $5.45 billion (1.7%) About three-fifths (60.1%) of Indian exports in 2019 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.
  • 17. 17 World Merchandise Trade Volume Decreased by 2.0% in the First Quarter of 2020 over the previous quarter, in seasonal adjusted terms.. World imports contracted by 1.9% In value terms, world exports and imports decreased at about 6.2% and 5.3% in year-on-year terms. Lockdown measures across the globe to fight the spread of COVID-19 took a toll on global demand, production and trade. Source: WTO-UNCTAD
  • 18. 18 India's Exports In US$ Billions FY 2020-21 April May June Total' Arr-Jun'2020 Merchandise Exports 10.36 19.05 21.91 51.32 Service Exports 16.45 16.77 16.48 49.7 Total 26.81 35.82 38.39 101.02 China Exports Exports from China unexpectedly increased by 0.5 percent year-on-year to USD 213.57 billion in June 2020, after a 3.3 percent fall in the previous month and defying market expectations of a 1.5 percent drop, as global demand started to improve after more countries lifted coronavirus-led lockdown restrictions and social distancing measures. Imports rose for the first time since the pandemic struck, by 2.7 percent year on year to 167.2 billion U.S. dollars, bouncing from a 3.3-percent decline in May. Merchandise exports in June 2020 stood at $21.91 billion, as compared to $25.01 billion in June 2019, a decline of 12.41 per cent year-on-year. India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-June2020-21* are estimated to be USD 101.02 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)25.92 per cent over the same period last year.
  • 19. 19 Yr- 2000 World GDP : US$ 33.858 Trillion India GDP : US$ 0.468 Trillion (1.36% of World GDP) China GDP : USD$ 1.211 Trillion (3.58% of World GDP) Yr - 2019 World GDP : UD$ 87.752 Trillion India GDP : US$ 2.875 Trillion (3.28% of World GDP) China GDP : US$ 14.342 Trillion (16.34% of World GDP) World Bank Data The Indian economy is expected to shrink by 5% in the current financial year 2020-21. While IMF expects the Indian economy to contract by 4.5% following a longer period of lockdown and slower recovery, the World Bank says it India's GDP to contract 3.2%.
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  • 21. 21 China’s GDP growth has swung back sharply into the black in the April-June quarter, driven by a bounce back in manufacturing output and a public spending boost. This signals a major turnaround in the world’s second largest economy, even as much of the economies globally are reeling under the impact of the Covid-19 spread. The world's second-largest economy grew by 3.2 percent in April-June from a year earlier, reversing a 6.8-percent decline in the first quarter – the first contraction since at least 1992, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. In the first half of 2020, China's economy declined by 1.6 percent year on year. A V-shaped recovery – a sharp fall followed by an equally sharp recovery.
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  • 24. 24 •To focus on countries which are providing demand stimulus like US, UK and many other advanced and emerging markets;Country Focus •Explore countries having high anti-China sentiments led by US including EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etcEncash Anti-China Sentiments Encourage Domestic Sourcing – Re-Design Our Export Promotion Schemes. There is Need to Fast Localise to Minimise Import Dependency. Encourage Domestic Sourcing Revisit economies depending on crude & commodities exports as prices of such products are likely to be subdued (Middle East, LAC and CIS) Revisit Markets Organizations need to re-invent their businesses post COVID-19, exploring it from a marketing perspective & Changes taken place Worldover. Re-Strategize Product – Market Mix Increasing value added component of our exports – Need to upgrade and meet Higher Standards in Terms of Quality, Delivery and Other Certification Requirements and Promote Brand Image. Encouraging Value- Added Exports Export Strategy
  • 25. 25 With in India Out side India Boycott Made in China Non-Essential Goods Encourage India Made Local Products Govt. alone can’t Do. As a Citizen of India, it’s Everyone’s Responsibility v Let’s Unite Show Our Purchasing Power to the World Trust on China Fading Away Fill the Gap where China Forced to Exit. Tap those Products & Markets Countries Include US, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc Build “Made in India” Brand Image Advantage Growth of Domestic Market Export Growth “Make it Happen Faster” before slip out of hand
  • 26. 26 There are websites like Alibaba such as Indiamart and TradeIndia, who have been introducing buyers to sellers like a matchmaker. However they are no way Near to Alibaba.com in terms of Scale & Global Reach
  • 27. 27 Strengthen India Inc. image/brand Focus marketing on select countries with select services Build customer credibility Promote Acceptability of the ‘offshore’ concept Improve service experience for customers Invest in promoting trials, Innovate to Create Customer Required Products & Services Align Legal and Regulatory Structure “Make it Happen” – Faster before grabbed by some other Export Strategy
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  • 29. 29 The country required political will to take on China. There are ample tariff and non-tariff barriers available to execute this. The cheap Chinese imports were killing jobs and manufacturing capacities in India, along with increasing security risks in some sectors. Trade should be done on equal footing. The government must consider improving the standards for Indian products and follow up with policies and incentives to build and strengthen indigenous capability. National co-convenor, Swadeshi Jagran Manch
  • 30. 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Phamacetical - API's Basic Chemicals Electrical & Electronics Furniture & Beddings Bicycles Organic Chemicals Machinery - Capital Goods Fertilizers Automobile Parts Nuclear Reactors, Boilers & Parts 68% 60% 60% 57% 50% 38% 32% 28% 25% 17% India’s Dependence on China
  • 31. 31 More than 100 Chinese firms have a presence in India. Chinese state-owned companies have bagged huge projects here. These include Sinosteel, Shougang International, Baoshan Iron & Steel, Sany Heavy Industry, Chongqing Lifan Industry, China Dongfang International, and Sino Hydro Corporation. In telecom, three Chinese firms, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo have a 50% share of the mobile handset market. India Imports other Industrial Items such as chemicals, automotive components, consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals. which include wrist watches, wall clocks, ampoules, glass rods and tubes, hair cream, hair shampoos, face powder, eye and lip make up preparations, printing ink, paints and varnishes, and some tobacco items
  • 32. 32 In 2018-19, India’s exports to China were mere $16.7 billion, while imports were $70.3 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $53.6 billion. It needs to be acknowledged that China’s exports to India account for only 2% of its total exports, so even if Indians boycott all the goods imported from China, it will not make as big an impact on China. Data also suggests that China is India’s largest trading partner, but the trade is heavily skewed in favour of China. Thus initiating a trade war when Indian manufacturing ability is limited specially in some Industrial Products is not going to favor India, but such Initiation forces Domestic Souring and over a period of Time definitely Builds up a Strong Manufacturing Base. India’s Exports to China were mere $16.7 billion India’s Imports from China were mere $70.3 billion
  • 33. 33 Imports Substitution We are encouraged by the statement of the Hon'ble Prime Minister focusing on imports substitution – Focal to Local. Imports substitution should be an integral part of the Foreign Trade Policy as dollar saved is as good as dollar earned and both generate economic activity. While an increase in tariff can be one way to achieve it, the more effective strategy would be to provide an ecosystem which addresses the cost disability of Indian manufacturing leading to such imports. Import substitution manufacturing should attract interest subvention on credit, offsetting inland freight disadvantage besides equalization of import tariff from free trade areas.
  • 34. 34 India Made PPE’s India has become the world's second largest manufacturer of (PPE) body coveralls within a short time span of two months India is self-sufficient in the production of PPE kit, masks, ventilators, and testing kits, and will start exporting these items soon.“ India Made Korona Testing Kits The Corosure Kit has been developed indigenously and is much cheaper than other kits. The country requires cheap and reliable testing for the country which can help control the pandemic. The kit has received ICMR approval with the highest score and DCGI approved with a very high sensitivity and specificity IIT Delhi, which became the first academic institute to get Indian Council of Medical Research nod for a COVID-19 testing method, gave non-exclusive open licence to 10 companies for commercializing the test, but with a price rider of Rs 500 for the assay needed for testing.
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  • 36. SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 36 Industry body FISME has identified over 600 items which could be produced locally to reduce import dependence from China. As many as 666 items such as electric lamps, wooden furniture, tricycles and ski-boots imported from China could be produced locally and hence cut trade deficit with the neighbouring country by about $10 billion a year, industry body Federation of Indian Micro and Small & Medium Enterprises (FISME) has found. In some cases, for instance low-value items, local capability can be easily built and import substitution can happen. FISME carried out the analysis following a directive from the Commerce Ministry to ascertain products where import dependence could be substantially reduced. "We are looking at strengthening Indian manufacturing. Manufacturing is strengthened by incentives, by cutting down on unnecessary imports. There are non-competitive imports where Indian industry is not strong. We are looking into these issues and trying to take action. There are tariff measures, non-tariff measures and many other measures to promote local industry,"
  • 37. SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 37 Following the border standoff in Ladakh, there has been a clamour for Indians to boycott products from China. Parth Jindal, managing director of JSW Cement, said that the JSW Group have a net import of $400 million from China annually and we pledge to bring this down to zero in the next 24 months “The idea is to strengthen the supply chain within the country and in that process become self-reliant to whatever extent we can. It is a directional shift that we are looking to make,” Jayant Acharya, director (commercial) at JSW Steel. One of the leading bicycle manufacturers in India, Hero Cycles, has announced the cancellation of planned business involving China worth Rs. 900 crore. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), which represents 7 crore traders and 40,000 trade associations, has announced boycott of 3,000 Chinese products.
  • 38. SN Panigrahi, Essenpee Business Solutions, India 38 Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra already pausing three Chinese projects worth Rs 5,000 crore. Along with the Maharashtra government, Yogi Adityanath’s Uttar Pradesh, and Manohar Lal Khattar’s Haryana have also adopted a tough stance on imports from China, and have stepped up to boycott Chinese companies and products.
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  • 40. 40 Some Govt. Protection Industry Mind Set Need to Change. Not to Depend on Subsidies only Focus Business Expansion Scale & Reach Innovation IT Adoption
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  • 42. 42 For strong, resilient and ‘’Aatma Nirabhar Bharat’’, trade bodies have an important role to play: Shri Piyush Goyal As a country, Shri Goyal added that, India should focus on Investment, Infrastructure, and Innovation in the post-covid world, by increasing the production, improving quality of products, trying higher economies of scale, smooth logistics channels, competitive pricing and using innovative practices. The government and trade bodies must work together to boost the growth, to bringing more employment, jobs to youth and engaging with the world with strength and not closing the door for the world but being self-sufficient “Aatma Nirbhar Bharat “ .
  • 43. 43 Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said certain sectors have been identified where there is a huge potential for India to cut its import dependence, boost exports and promote domestic manufacturing. He said that on 12 sectors -- food processing; organic farming; iron; aluminium and copper; agrochemicals; electronics; industrial machinery; furniture; leather and shoes; auto parts; textiles; and coveralls, masks, sanitisers and ventilators -- work have been moving at a faster pace. The minister added that COVID-19 pandemic has taught a big lesson that over-dependence on certain geographies can cause a lot of difficulties in the time of stress. "In our own ways, we have identified sectors where import substitution or export potential is there in a big way and I am sure that we can all work together to make this happen. We are looking at more sectors and I would urge all of you to look at new sectors where we can really promote Indian manufacturing," Goyal said while addressing the annual general meeting of Bombay Chamber of Commerce. He also said certain statistics and indicators are reflecting that India''s economy is reviving. Citing some examples, he said freight movement in railways, power consumption, operations in the cement industry, and export numbers are "clearly demonstrating that we are moving very rapidly towards a reasonable level of operation". 12 Sectors Identified to Cut its Import Dependence, Boost Exports and Promote Domestic Manufacturing
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  • 45. 45 The Government of India announced a countrywide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic in the country. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) in coordination with Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) is issuing various customs relief measures for the smooth conduct of assessment and clearance of goods. Following measures taken by CBIC:  Electronic Communication of PDF Gate Pass and Final OoC (Out of Charge) Bill of Entry  Exemption of Customs Duties and Health Cess on Medical Equipment  Clearance of Goods Without Original Certificate of Origin  Acceptance of Undertaking in Lieu of Bond  24X7 Clearance  Facilitation measures of Clearnce of Import Cargo due to delay arising in Outbreak of COVID-19.  Relaxations in Late Fee, Demurrages  E-sanchit
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  • 47. 47  Benefits under MEIS for any item/tariff line /HS Code currently listed in Appendix 3B, Table 2 (MEIS Schedule) will be available only up to 31 Dec 2020;  Prior to 31 Dec 2020, as and when an item/tariff line/HS code is notified to be covered under RoDTEP Scheme, it would at the same time be removed from coverage under MEIS;  Detailed operational framework for the Scheme for RoDTEP will be notified separately  Relaxation of time for submission of Physical Copy of Transport and Marketing Assistance Scheme (TMA) Application.  Electronic filling and Issuance of Preferential Certificate of Origin for India’s Exports  Retrospective issuance of Certificate of Origin (COO) under India’s Trade Agreement  The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has recently issued a Trade Notice No. 16/2020-21 dated 25.06.2020, notifying launch of new DGFT platform and Digital delivery of IEC related services. The platform is scheduled to go live on 13th July 2020 and will be accessible through the existing DGFT website (www.dgft.gov.in).  In the first phase, the website will cater to services related to the IEC issuance, modification, amendments etc. along with a chatbot. In the next phase, similar other online modules relating to Advance Authorization (AA), EPCG and Export Obligation Discharge Certificate will be rolled out.
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  • 51. 51