In this lecture, the experience from U.S development is utilized to provide a fully-integrated workflow for developing shale oil and gas reservoirs from exploitation to production.
Creating a Worldwide Unconventional Revolution Through a Technically Driven Strategy
1. Primary funding is provided by
The SPE Foundation through member donations
and a contribution from Offshore Europe
The Society is grateful to those companies that allow their
professionals to serve as lecturers
Additional support provided by AIME
Society of Petroleum Engineers
Distinguished Lecturer Program
www.spe.org/dl
2. Society of Petroleum Engineers
Distinguished Lecturer Program
www.spe.org/dl 2
Basak Kurtoglu, PhD
Citi Global Energy Group
Creating a Worldwide
Unconventional Revolution
Through Technically Justifiable Strategies
3. The Unconventional Resource Revolution
in North America
3
Technology enabled
production from unconventional
reservoirs
‒ Horizontal drilling increased
reservoir contact area
‒ Hydraulic fracturing enhanced
very low permeability
2000-2010 Highlights:
‒ All started with the Barnett in
Texas
‒ Development of Bakken in
Montana shifted to North
Dakota
‒ The Marcellus started to
develop in Pennsylvania and
West Virginia
‒ Activity in the Haynesville
started in eastern
Texas/western Louisiana
Basin
Shale
Prospective
Shallow
Intermediate
Deep
US Unconventional Play Development
2010- 2015 Highlights
‒ Eagle Ford became the lead for oil production
‒ Permian has received great attention with multi-horizon
development opportunities
‒ Unconventional development propelled the United States to
produce more oil than it imports for the first time in 20 years
4. How to Develop Unconventionals Worldwide?
4Source: EIA, Aug 2016
Key Factors for Success
Operational Execution
Technical Understanding
Strategic Development Plan
Technically Recoverable Shale Resources
0
500
1000
1500
GAS(TCF)
Shale Gas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OIL(BILLIONBBL)
Shale Oil
5. 5
Reservoir Characterization
Operational Execution
Value Creation
Integrated Workflow
Petroleum system
Targeting and landing
Multi-horizon development
Completion design
Well spacing
Improved/Enhanced recovery
Development Strategy
Unconventional Approach
6. 6
Source Rock Properties- Reservoir Characterization
TOC: 2- 4 weight %
kmarl: 5.0E-07 md
TOC: 25- 28 weight %
kshale: 4.0E-08 md
Pore structure-
Scanning Electron
Microscopy (SEM)
Maturity- Total Organic
Carbon (TOC)
Ductility
Low permeability (k)
Bakken (Locally Sourced)
Kurtoglu, 2013 & Rosen et al., 2014 (SPE 168965) 6
1 mile
Appraisal Phase
Eagle Ford (Self-Sourced)
Black Shale SEM
Marl SEM
Development Acreage
7. 7
Pore structure-
Scanning Electron
Microscopy (SEM)
Micro-fractures
Brittleness
High permeability (k)
kfractured- core: 0.0013 md
kfractured- core: 0.0059 md
Kurtoglu et al., 2014 (SPE 171688) & Rosen et al., 2014 (SPE 168965)
Bakken- Thin Section
Eagle Ford- Thin Section
500 μm
500 μm
Sandstone SEM
Limestone SEM1 mile
Appraisal Phase
Development Acreage
Reservoir Rock Properties- Characterization
8. 8
Target Window- Reservoir CharacterizationCurrentConventional
Strategy
Storage Capacity
Energy/Drive
Thickness and extent
Porosity: type and amount
Fluid(s): type and amount
Pore pressure & GOR
Burial history
Seals
Connectivity
Brittleness of the rock
Faults and natural fractures
Type and amount of clay
Ability to induce fractures
Ability to maintain fractures
Unconventional
Strategy
Source Rock %: 70
Reservoir Rock %: 30
Frequency: 1/10ft
Source Rock %: 70
Reservoir Rock %: 30
Frequency: 3/10ft
Increased Interbedding= Increased Connectivity
LOW HIGH
1ft
Reservoir Rock: Brittle
Source Rock: Ductile
9. 9
Fluid Properties- Reservoir Characterization
Black Oil and Volatile Oil System
IncreasedRecoverywith
DecreasedViscosity
1,000
2,000
2,400
3,000
14,000
12,000
6,000
5,000
GOR=4,000
GOR=700
Gas Condensate System
IncreasedRecoverywith
IncreasedCompressibility
Increased capillary pressure
Bubble point suppression
Delayed multi-phase production
Longer time constant gas-oil ratio (GOR)
Lesser volume of gas released below
bubble point pressure
Unconventional
Nano pore
Conventional
Temperature, ˚F Temperature, ˚F
Pressure,psia
10. 10
Rock-Fluid Interaction- Reservoir Characterization
Kurtoglu et al., 2014 (SPE 171688) & Fakcharoenphol et al., 2014 (SPE 168998)
Transport Processes
Counter-current spontaneous imbibition
High and Low Salinity
Osmotic pressure
Wettability
2- Low Salinity Experiment
after 5 days
Bakken Reservoir Rock
1- High Salinity Experiment
11. 11
Formation Deliverability- Reservoir Characterization
Kurtoglu et al., 2013 (SPE 162921)
Core to field level permeability reconciliation
Near wellbore transient behavior:
Mini- Drill Stem Test (DST)
Target zone identification
Formation deliverability and pressure
Laminated zone
Permeability: 0.013 md
Pressure: 6354 psi
Gamma Ray (GAPI)
Lodgepole
Lower
Bakken
Upper
Bakken
Middle
Bakken
Scallion
Three
Forks
13. 13
Well Life Cycle- Operational Execution
1 2 3 4
Completion Flowback Production Refrac/ Gas Injection
Gas
Production Time
Oil
Water
1 mile
NormalizedCumulativeMBOE
%25
Produced Days
Development Acreage
15. 15
Multi-Phase Flowback Bilinear Flow Analysis
Time1/4 (days1/4)
41
1
102.44
efft
t
fff
t
BL
kcwkhn
m
Hydrocarbon
Water
Bilinear Flow: One linear flow within
fracture towards well and one within
the formation towards the fracture
md/cp-
1/psi-
md-
ft-idth
md-
stages
ft-
mobilitytotal
ilitycompressibtotalc
porosity
typermeabilieffectivek
wfracturehydraulicw
typermeabilifracturehydraulick
ofnumbern
thicknessh
t
t
eff
f
f
f
400’ Stage Spacing
250’ Stage Spacing
Hourly Flowback- Operational Execution
Kurtoglu et al., 2015 (SPE 172922)
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
Hydraulic
Fracture
Conductivity
Reservoir
Effective
Permeability
Bilinear
Slope
Increased
fracture
conductivity
Increased
reservoir
connectivity
mBL
16. 16
Daily Production- Operational Execution
Multi-Phase Production Linear Flow Analysis
Linear Flow: Linear flow within
stimulated reservoir volume
(SRV) towards well
Hydrocarbon
Water
tteffff
L
ckxhn
m
191.19
Time1/2 (days1/2)
md/cp-
1/psi-
md-
ft-
stages
ft-
mobilitytotal
ilitycompressibtotalc
porosity
typermeabilieffectivek
hhalf-lengtfracturex
ofnumbern
thicknessh
t
t
eff
f
f
400’ Stage Spacing
250’ Stage Spacing
Kurtoglu et al., 2015 (SPE 172922)
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
Linear
Slope
Increased
reservoir
connectivity
Reservoir
Effective
Permeability
Fracture
Half-
Length
Increased
SRV
mL
17. 17
Geological Impact- Operational Execution
Key Attributes
Pore Pressure
Thickness
Porosity
Water Saturation
Fault/Structure
Fracture Intensity
CumulativeOilProduction(BBLS)
Time (days)
Good Geology
SRV: 28 acre
Time1/4 (days1/4)
Poor Geology
SRV: 13 acre
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
Well in Sweet Spot area
Well in Poor Geological Area
1 mile
Development Acreage
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Geological
Risk
18. 18
Well Spacing- Value Creation
Defining boundaries of
reservoir both vertically
and horizontally
Simulation of scenarios
Determine point of
diminishing return
Validation with field results
NetPresentValue($M)
Well Count/Spacing Unit
CumulativeOil(BBLS)
Reservoir Modeling for Well Spacing
80 acre: 3 well/unit
40 acre: 6 well/unit
60 acre: 4 well/unit
Time (days)
Increased Well
Interference
80 acre: 3 well/unit
40 acre: 6 well/unit
60 acre: 4 well/unit
Time (days)
CumulativeOil(BBLS)
Time (days)
CumulativeOil(BBLS)
Actual 40 acre well
80 acre: 3 well/unit
40 acre: 6 well/unit
60 acre: 4 well/unit
1 mile
Development Acreage
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Geological
Risk
19. Time1/2 (days1/2)
Well-to-Well Interaction- Value Creation
Negative Frac Interference
Hydraulic Fracture Interference
Overlooked risk during infill
development
Awareness of dynamic alteration
of reservoir
Positive or negative impact on
existing production
Incorporate into plan of
development
Kurtoglu et al., 2015 (SPE 172922)
1 mile
Development Acreage
Reduced
SRV
Frac Hit
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
Linear Flow
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Geological
Risk
Time1/2 (days1/2)
Reduced
SRV
Increased
SRV
Frac Hit
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
Linear Flow
Positive Frac Interference
20. 20
Refrac- Value Creation
Application of learnings from
frac interference
Classifying opportunities for
refrac based on:
Increased productivity
Altered fluid mobility
Poor initial completion
Time (days)
Oil rate
increase of
1210 bbl/d
Time1/2 (days1/2)
Δ(86psi/bb/dl)
RateNormalizedPressure
Δp/qt(psi/BBL/D)
OilRate(BBL/D)
WaterRate(BBL/D)
Refrac
86 psi/bbl/d
productivity
increase
Refrac
Kurtoglu et al., 2015 (SPE 172922)
1 mile
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Development Acreage
Geological
Risk
21. 21
Enhanced Recovery- Value Creation
Build
Integrated
Reservoir
Model to
Understand
Physics
Select the Best
Location & Design
Field Application
Characterize
Nano-Pore Rock
and Fluid
Properties
Permeability Distribution
RateNormalizedPressure
(psi/BBL/D)
Time1/2 (days1/2)
Nano-pore
Gas
Injector
Rock Properties
Fluid Properties
Oil Rate (Eagle Ford)
1 mile
Unconventional
Nano pore
Conventional
Primary Development
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Low pressure area
High pressure area
Enhanced Recovery
Less
Potential
More
Potential
Source: EOG, May 2016
22. 22
Enhanced Recovery- Design Consideration
Design
Considerations
Objective
Reservoir Fluid
Target thermally less
matured areas
Fracture Network
Map fracture pathways and
control horizontal
containment
Well Spacing Prevent early breakthrough
Wellbore
Configuration
Compatible casing design to
high pressure limits
Multi-horizon
Development
Less well interference for
vertical containment
EOR Fluid Selection
Injected gas availability
Midstream infrastructure
Compatible Well
Completion
Re-entry to the wellbore for
injection
Target Fluid Window for EOR
Elm Coulee
Parshall – Sanish
- Reunion Bay
Bailey –
Murphy Creek
Antelope
Field
MONTANA
NORTH
DAKOTA
Eagle Ford Gas-Oil Ratio
Bakken Structure
Sub-optimum Areas due to Structural Features for EOR
EOR design should be planned early in the
primary development so that wells are
drilled and completed in a way that is
compatible with the future EOR application
23. 23
Enhanced Recovery- Design Consideration
There has been an increased interest and field
trials in unconventional plays since 2008
North Dakota Bakken: CO2 Huff & Puff (2008),
Water Huff & Puff (2012), Water Flood (2014),
Natural Gas Flood (2014)
Montana Bakken: CO2 Huff & Puff (2009) and
Water Flood (2014)
Eagle Ford: Natural Gas Huff & Puff (2014-
present)
Bakken Water Huff & Puff
Eagle Ford Huff & Puff Gas InjectionBakken Huff & Puff CO2 Injection
Source: SPE 180270, 2016 Source: EOG Investor Presentation, May 2016
Finding cost <$6 per bbl
Capital investment ~$ 1MM per well
Long reserve life and low decline rate
25. CAPEX($MM)
Business Impact
25
Project Review
Base Case
Primary Development
Upside Case
Tertiary Development
Completion
Stage spacing (ft) 350 250
Proppant loading (lb/ft) 600 1,500+
Well spacing 80 40
Well Count 40 160
Net CAPEX ($MM) 243 1,496
Net Reserves (MMBOE) 16 90
NPV10 ($MM) 83 357
ROR (%) 28 30
Discounted NPV10/I 0.42 0.42
NPV10/Acre ($/acre) 26,000 111,000
Primary- Base Case
Primary- Upside Case
Tertiary- Upside Case
Without EOR
EOR started
DailyRate(BOPD)
68,000
26. 26
Conclusions
Petroleum System
Stratigraphic Variations
Fluid Properties
Formation Deliverability
Geomechanical Properties
Reservoir
Characterization
Operational
Execution
Value
Creation
Creating a Worldwide Unconventional Revolution
Completion
Flowback
Production
Geology
Well Spacing
Well to Well Interaction
Refrac
Enhanced Oil Recovery
28. Society of Petroleum Engineers
Distinguished Lecturer Program
www.spe.org/dl 28
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Notes de l'éditeur
Base Case
1- spud to spud: 30 day
2-spud to frac: 120 day for 4 well pad
3- type curve includes completion upside
Upside Blue Case
1- spud to spud: 17 day
2- spud to frac: 80 day for 4 well pad
3- type curve all in
4- EOR starts in 2020
Green Upside Case
1- soud to spud: 60 day
2- spud tp frac: 120 day for 4 well pad
3- type curve all in
4- EOR starts in 2030
I’ve taken you on a journey from the base line valuation of unconventional reservoirs and we’ve now arrived at the true value proposition by incorporating the technical justification of multi-horizon development, selecting the best target, identifying the best completion strategy, finding the right well spacing and finally enriching the portfolio with enhanced recovery techniques to arrive at the true value proposition.
On a single well bases, we’ve gone from 456 MBOE and arrived at the full potential of 637 MBOE.
When we roll up the entire acreage position, we’ve not only increase per well recoveries, but we’ve increased the well counts, yielding a full project reserve recovery going from 18 MMBOE to 102 MMBOE…
Increased recoveries are all well and good, but can we realize economic value with these improvements?
He talked about:
Highest DD&A
Lowest cost to find oil
Value enhancement
Optimization yields better results
Increasing NPV through technical , execution, and decision
The answer is yes. Comparing the base case that consisted of a completion design of 350’ stage spacing, 600 lb/ft and 80 acre well spacing for 40 wells and a total investment of $251MM, we realize an NPV10 of ____ yielding an acreage value of $26,000/acre. By employing the technically justifiable improvements to the most hated, black oil acreage, we’ve improved our completion design to 250’ stage spacing, 1,200 lb/ft and 40 acre well spacing…with a total well count of 160 wells and an investment of $1.5 B, we can now realize and NPV10 of $355 MM, improving our value to a much more favorable $111,000/acre…