1.
HARNESSING THE
FUTURE:
A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON SOCIAL PROTECTION
DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AFRICA
Alexander Pick, OECD Development Centre
Food Crisis Prevention Network,
13 December 2016

2.
• Social protection at the heart of Africa’s development strategy
(Agenda 2063)
• As of today, there has been a major expansion of social
protection although large gaps in coverage remain
• Looking forward, several emerging trends are likely to bring
additional threats to human well-being and confront Africa’s
vision for social protection
• Identifying possible futures and exploring new paths for
action is essential for tackling today’s social protection
challenges and preparing for those of tomorrow
13-Dec-
2016
2
Background

3.
• What will be the demographic, environmental, social and
economic trends over the next 50 years in East Africa?
• How will these trends affect the evolving needs and
conditions for social protection in the region?
• How can countries in the region adapt to these
challenges while achieving Africa’s vision for social
protection?
• How can social protection influence key trends?
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2016
3
Key questions

4.
• UN projections for population growth
– Up to 2100, most reliable over 30-40 years
– Reliant on census data
– Includes international migration
• UN projections for urbanisation
– Up to 2050
– Beware definitional problems
• Health projections
• Climate models
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2016
4
Building a long-term projection – Demographic
and environmental trends

5.
• Estimate long-term productivity growth
• Project gross national income, reflecting productivity and
population growth
• A projection is not a forecast but a means of seeing how key
variables interact within a coherent and plausible framework
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2016
5
Building a long-term projection –
Economic and social trends
Project long-term
poverty rates
assuming current
level of inequality
Project structural change
and implications for
structure of employment

6.
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2016
6
Rapid population growth
2015 2065

7.
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2016
7
Rapid urbanisation with rural
dominance

8.
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Strong prospects for economic growth
Average annual and per capita
GDP growth, 2015-2065

9.
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Slow structural change, persistent rural
and informal employment
Employment by sector of new labour force
entrants, 2015-2065
Composition of output,
2000, 2010 & 2065

10.
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2016
10
Poverty eradication will remain a
daunting challenge

11.
Seven grand challenges for social protection in East
Africa:
1. Solving the last mile problem
2. Promoting social insurance in a context of high
informality
3. Confronting the employment challenge
4. Rapid urbanisation
5. Climate change
6. Increasing financing for social protection
7. Harnessing the demographic dividend
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2016
11
The way forward

12.
THANK YOU
Alexander PICK
Fiscal Economist, Social Protection Team
OECD Development Centre
alexander.pick@oecd.org
+33 1 45 24 87 27