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Sageworksanalyst.com
Neekis Hammond, CPA
Principal - Advisory Services
1
February 16, 2017
CECL Methodology Series
Question and Answer
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About the Webinar
• We will address as many questions as we can
throughout the presentation or through
direct communication via follow-up email
• Ask questions throughout the session using
the GoToWebinar control panel
2
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Disclaimer
4
This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” relative to
publicly available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain words such as “believe,”
“expect,” “plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,” “see,” “guidance,” “confident” and
similar terms. There can be no assurance that any of the future events discussed will occur as
anticipated, if at all, or that actual results on the industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not
responsible for the accuracy or validity of this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use
of this data relative to business or investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks
disclaims all representations and warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include risks
related to the effect of economic conditions and financial market conditions; fluctuation in commodity
prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. No Sageworks employee is authorized to
make recommendations or give advice as to any course of action that should be made as an outcome
of this data. The forward-looking statements and data speak only as of the date of this presentation
and we undertake no obligation to update or revise this information as of a later date.
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Neekis Hammond, CPA
Principal - Advisory Services
About Today’s Presenters
5
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Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
6
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Series Overview
• Thursday, February 16th, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CECL Methodology Q&A
• Thursday, February 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Unfunded Commitments & Construction Loan CECL
Methodologies
• Thursday, March 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Forecasting with CECL
• Thursday, March 16th, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CECL Calculations in a Software Environment
• Thursday, March 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Disclosures with CECL
Sign up at: web.sageworks.com/cecl-methodology-webinar-series/
7
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Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
8
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
Questions related to the amount and type of historical data:
• How much historical data is required?
• How many historical periods do I need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or
annually?
• We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data?
• We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to?
• We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what
else are we missing?
9
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
Questions related to the amount and type of historical data:
• How much historical data is required?
• How many historical periods do I need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly,
or annually?
• We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data?
• We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to?
• We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what
else are we missing?
10
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
11
1.04%
0.96%
1.14%
0.84%
0.70%
0.54%
0.51%
0.43%
0.34%
0.51%
0.43%
0.34%
6/30/2017 9/30/2017 12/31/2017
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Data
How much historical data is required?
How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or
annually?
• ASU 326-20-55-20: Community Bank A, after considering underwriting standards and the
contractual terms of loans that existed over the historical period, believes that the most recent 10-
year period is reasonable.
• 2009/2010 to 2019/2020
12
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Data
13
When Will the Amendments Be Effective?
For public business entities that are U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) filers, the
amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other public business entities, the
amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other entities, including not-for-profit
entities and employee benefit plans within the scope of Topics 960 through 965 on plan accounting,
the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, and
interim periods within fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021. All entities may adopt the
amendments in this Update earlier as of the fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. An entity will apply the amendments in this
Update through a cumulative-effect adjustment to retained earnings as of the beginning of the first
reporting period in which the guidance is effective (that is, a modified-retrospective approach).
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Data
14
When Will the Amendments Be Effective?
For public business entities that are U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) filers, the
amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other public business entities, the
amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other entities, including not-for-profit
entities and employee benefit plans within the scope of Topics 960 through 965 on plan accounting,
the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, and
interim periods within fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021. All entities may adopt the
amendments in this Update earlier as of the fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018,
including interim periods within those fiscal years. An entity will apply the amendments in this
Update through a cumulative-effect adjustment to retained earnings as of the beginning of the first
reporting period in which the guidance is effective (that is, a modified-retrospective approach).
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
15
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Data
16
3 Yr.
4 Yr.
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3 Yr.
4 Yr.
Data
17
3 Yr.
4 Yr.
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Data
Questions related to the amount and type of historical data:
• How much historical data is required?
• How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly,
or annually?
• We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data?
• We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to?
• We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what
else are we missing?
18
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
19
1.04%
0.96%
1.14%
0.84%
0.70%
0.54%
0.51%
0.43%
0.34%
2.37%
2.19%
2.59%
1.90%
1.59%
1.22%
1.16%
0.98%
0.77%
12/31/2015 3/31/2016 6/30/2016 9/30/2016 12/31/2016 3/31/2017 6/30/2017 9/30/2017 12/31/2017
3 Year Loss Rate Sum of Annual Loss Rate
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Data
Questions related to the amount and type of historical data:
• How much historical data is required?
• How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly,
or annually?
• We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data?
• We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring
to?
• We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what
else are we missing?
20
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
21
14.1%
0.0%
0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
2.4%
12.6%
24.0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.69% 0.65%
1.36%
1.24%
1.06%
0.97% 1.04%
0.95% 0.91%
9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
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Data
Questions related to the amount and type of historical data:
• How much historical data is required?
• How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly,
or annually?
• We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data?
• We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to?
• We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what
else are we missing?
22
Sageworksanalyst.com
Data
ASU 326:
• 20-55-10 through 14 “addresses the meaning of the term portfolio segment
• 20-55-15 through 16 “addresses the application of the term credit quality indicator
• “as of the balance sheet date, the entity should use the most current information it has obtained”
23
http://www.fasb.org/jsp/FASB/FASBContent_C/CompletedProjectPage&cid=1176168232014
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Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
24
Sageworksanalyst.com
Contractual Life
Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life:
• How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go into more details on how it is
related to attrition analysis?
• Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life?
• How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated?
25
Sageworksanalyst.com
Contractual Life
Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life:
• How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go into more detail on how it is
related to attrition analysis?
• Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life?
• How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated?
26
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Contractual Life
27
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Contractual Life
28
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Contractual Life
Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life:
• How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to
attrition analysis?
• Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life?
• How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated?
29
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Contractual Life
Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• In a sample of N equally likely outcomes mathematicians assign a chance (or weight) of 1/N to
each outcome
• The probability of an event is defined as the number of certain outcomes divided by the total
number of equally likely outcomes in the sample space of the experiment.
• Using a dollar based approach implies an already determined (supportable) correlation to attrition
rates.
• 11 Loans; 10 @ $1, and 1 @ $90. $90 exits the portfolio over the analysis period. Should we then assume 9 of the
remaining 10 loans will exit in the following quarter?
• If dollars are correlated to behavior, that implies a risk variance between loans within a pool that is, by definition,
intended to contain loans with similar risk characteristics
30
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Contractual Life
Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life:
• How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to
attrition analysis?
• Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life?
• How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated?
31
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Contractual Life
32
LOAN NUMBER 4.A CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
GL Balance 115,000,000.00
Segment 4.a CapEx
Subsegment Pass
Date 12/31/2015
Interest Rate 5.50%
Discount Rate 1.53%
Payment Type Balloon
Payment Amt 3,472,528.71
Mat Date 1/31/2020
Nper 36
Renewal Assumption (months) -
CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) 33.00%
SMM (Standard Monthly Mortality) 3.28%
PD (Probability of Default) 2.47%
CDR (Constant Default Rate) 0.21%
LGD (Loss Given Default) 25.44%
Recovery Delay (Foreclosure Lag) 12
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Contractual Life
33
LOAN NUMBER 4.A CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
GL Balance 115,000,000.00
Segment 4.a CapEx
Subsegment Pass
Date 12/31/2015
Interest Rate 5.50%
Discount Rate 1.53%
Payment Type Balloon
Payment Amt 3,472,528.71
Mat Date 1/31/2020
Nper 36
Renewal Assumption (months) -
CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) 33.00%
SMM (Standard Monthly Mortality) 3.28%
PD (Probability of Default) 2.47%
CDR (Constant Default Rate) 0.21%
LGD (Loss Given Default) 25.44%
Recovery Delay (Foreclosure Lag) 12
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115,000,000
113,830,961
4,129,933
108,090,635
9,072,700
2,779,432
1,050,572
3,079,361
123,022,127
GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED
PRINCIPAL
PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED
LOSS
ESTIMATED
RECOVERY
CASH FLOW
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS
Contractual Life
34
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115,000,000
113,830,961
4,129,933
108,090,635
9,072,700
2,779,432
1,050,572
3,079,361
123,022,127
GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED
PRINCIPAL
PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED
LOSS
ESTIMATED
RECOVERY
CASH FLOW
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS
Contractual Life
35
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Contractual Life
36
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Contractual Life
37
Sageworksanalyst.com
Contractual Life
Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life:
• How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to
attrition analysis?
• Is attrition count based or dollar based?
• When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life?
• How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated?
38
Sageworksanalyst.com
Contractual Life
39
Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR
TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91%
- (150,000,000)
12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04%
1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29%
2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93%
3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76%
4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25%
5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26%
6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39%
7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18%
8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
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Contractual Life
40
Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR
TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91%
- (150,000,000)
12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04%
1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29%
2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93%
3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76%
4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25%
5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26%
6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39%
7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18%
8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
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Contractual Life
41
Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR
TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91%
- (150,000,000)
12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04%
1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29%
2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93%
3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76%
4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25%
5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26%
6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39%
7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18%
8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
Sageworksanalyst.com
Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
42
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation:
• We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under
CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk rating?
• Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code?
• If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator &
thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works?
• FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator
43
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation:
• We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under
CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk
rating?
• Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code?
• If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator &
thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works?
• FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator
44
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
ASU 326-20-55-5,12,15
• Payment Structure
• Interest Only, Balloon, Amortizing, etc.
• Contract Term
• 30 yr., 15 yr., 3/1 or 5/1 ARM, Revolving, etc.
• Interest Rate
• Fixed/Variable
• Exposure/Loan Type
• Call Code, Product Type, Loan Purpose, etc.
• Example: 1.c.2.a, 4.a, 1st Lien Residential, 2nd Lien Residential, HELOC, New Auto, Used Auto, Unsecured, commercial
equipment, etc.
45
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Segmentation
46
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Segmentation
47
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation:
• We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under
CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk rating?
• Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code?
• If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator &
thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works?
• FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator
48
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
49
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Segmentation
50
Sageworksanalyst.com
Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
51
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Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and
how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the
loan?
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless?
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
52
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with
the renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and
how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the
loan?
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless?
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
53
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
54
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Methodology
55
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and
how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the
loan?
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless?
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
56
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Methodology
Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of
the loan?
ASU 326-20-6, 326-20-50-7, 310-20-35-9,10,11,12
In most cases, a renewal would result in a "new loan" for vintage or any life-of-loan analysis. The
guidance contained within the new standard (ASU 326/CECL) points to a "more than minor" test
contained within ASC 310-20: "This condition would be met if the new loan’s effective yield is at least
equal to the effective yield for such loans and modifications of the original debt instrument are more
than minor."
In practice, more than minor has been determined to be >10% change in NPV. Also, short-term
extensions that facilitate administrative needs are ignored and/or do not meet the "more than
minor" test. For example, a 90-day extension would likely not constitute a new loan while a full 3-
year renewal would.
57
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Methodology
58
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and
how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the
loan?
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless?
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
59
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Methodology
60
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Methodology
61
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
62
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator
and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life
of the loan?
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless?
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
63
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
64
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
65
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
66
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis are we just concerned with where a loan started, say grade 3 and how
much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan.
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data
for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless.
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically
occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will
essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
67
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
68
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
69
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Vintage
• Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the
renewal date when it happens?
• Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan?
• Migration
• What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter?
• When we are talking about migration analysis are we just concerned with where a loan started, say grade 3 and how
much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan.
• Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence
for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for
setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless.
• The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss
typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except
that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly?
70
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
71
Sageworksanalyst.com
Segmentation
72
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology - Continued
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply
• We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of
default model?
• Discounted Cash Flow
• We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross
application?
• Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct?
73
Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology - Continued
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply
• We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of
default model?
• Discounted Cash Flow
• We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross
application?
• Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct?
74
Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
Sageworksanalyst.com
1.25
3.25
3.75
2.15
1.75
4.25
WORKING CAPITAL
LOC
EQUIPMENT VEHICLE CREDIT CARD CONSTRUCTION SBA
AVERAGE LIFE
Evaluating Risk Characteristics
75
Sageworksanalyst.com
Evaluating Risk Characteristics
76
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
ANNUAL LOSS RATE & EXPECTED LOSS RATE RELATIVE TO AVERAGE LIFE
Annual Loss Rate Expected Loss
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology - Continued
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply
• We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of
default model?
• Discounted Cash Flow
• We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross
application?
• Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct?
77
Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
78
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
79
Sageworksanalyst.com
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
Q12004
Q22004
Q32004
Q42004
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
BASELINE FORECAST
12 Month Average (Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans - Charge-Offs (% of Average Loans)) Max Standard Error Multi Regression Estimate
Methodology
80
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
81
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
Q12004
Q22004
Q32004
Q42004
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
ADVERSE FORECAST
12 Month Average (Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans - Charge-Offs (% of Average Loans)) Max Standard Error Multi Regression Estimate
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
82
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
Q12004
Q22004
Q32004
Q42004
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
SEVERLEY ADVERSE FORECAST
12 Month Average (Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans - Charge-Offs (% of Average Loans)) Max Standard Error Multi Regression Estimate
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
83
External Factor (National Data) R Square * Slope ** Lead (months)
Real GDP growth 20.51% -0.02% 18
Nominal GDP growth 27.45% -0.02% 18
Real disposable income growth 0.85% 0.00% 18
Nominal -disposable income growth 2.51% 0.00% 18
Unemployment rate 54.64% 0.05% 3
CPI inflation rate 0.12% 0.00% 6
3-month Treasury rate 9.56% -0.02% 6
5-year Treasury yield 0.62% -0.01% 6
10-year Treasury yield 2.45% 0.02% 6
BBB corporate yield 42.89% 0.07% 12
Mortgage rate 0.59% 0.01% 6
Prime rate 10.71% -0.02% 6
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index (Level) 31.62% 0.00% 18
House Price Index (Level) 39.44% 0.00% 6
Commercial Real Estate Price Index (Level) 44.19% 0.00% 6
Market Volatility Index (Level) 37.21% 0.01% 18
Multi-Regression Statistics Result
Adjusted R Square 79.65%
Standard Error 0.05%
Observations 49
Regression Utilization Coefficients ***
Intercept 0.04%
Commercial Real Estate Price Index (Level) 0.00%
Unemployment rate 0.03%
BBB corporate yield 0.04%
Market Volatility Index (Level) 0.00%
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology - Continued
Questions related to calculating historical loss experience:
• Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply
• We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of
default model?
• Discounted Cash Flow
• We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross
application?
• We’re a small institution, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct?
84
Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
85
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
86
Sageworksanalyst.com
Methodology
87
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
Sageworksanalyst.com
115,000,000
113,830,961
123,022,127
GL BALANCE PV CASH FLOW
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS
DCF Analysis
88
Sageworksanalyst.com
DCF Analysis
89
115,000,000
113,830,961
1,169,039
123,022,127
GL BALANCE PV RESERVE CASH FLOW
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS
Sageworksanalyst.com
115,000,000
113,830,961
4,129,933
108,090,635
9,072,700
2,779,432
1,050,572
3,079,361
123,022,127
GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED
PRINCIPAL
PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED
LOSS
ESTIMATED
RECOVERY
CASH FLOW
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS
DCF Analysis
90
Sageworksanalyst.com
Agenda
• Series Overview
• Question and Answer
• Data
• Contractual Life
• Segmentation
• Methodology
• General/Miscellaneous
91
Sageworksanalyst.com
General/Miscellaneous
General questions regarding the new standard and the impact:
• Some claim CECL may drive an increase in reserves, as much as doubling, or more. Should bank
and credit unions worry how their data will be incorporated into stress testing?
• “CECL is being delayed…”
• “New administration will abolish CECL with regulatory reform…”
• “ABA advocating to delay implementation…”
92
Sageworksanalyst.com
General/Miscellaneous
93
Sageworksanalyst.com
Credit Unions are particularly vulnerable to the new standard given the industries application of
qualitative and environmental factors and/or the relationship between annual loss rates and reserve
levels:
General/Miscellaneous
94
Greater Than
1 Year in Q&E
46%Less Than 1
Year in Q&E
54% Greater Than
6 months in
Q&E
64%
Less Than 6
months in
Q&E
36%
Sageworksanalyst.com
Transition Planning and Execution
95

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CECL Methodology Q&A Anthology

  • 1. Sageworksanalyst.com Neekis Hammond, CPA Principal - Advisory Services 1 February 16, 2017 CECL Methodology Series Question and Answer
  • 2. Sageworksanalyst.com About the Webinar • We will address as many questions as we can throughout the presentation or through direct communication via follow-up email • Ask questions throughout the session using the GoToWebinar control panel 2
  • 3. Sageworksanalyst.com 3 • Risk management thought leader for institutions and examiners • Regularly featured in national and trade media • Loan portfolio and risk management solutions • More than 1,000 financial institution clients • Founded in 1998
  • 4. Sageworksanalyst.com Disclaimer 4 This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” relative to publicly available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,” “see,” “guidance,” “confident” and similar terms. There can be no assurance that any of the future events discussed will occur as anticipated, if at all, or that actual results on the industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not responsible for the accuracy or validity of this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use of this data relative to business or investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks disclaims all representations and warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include risks related to the effect of economic conditions and financial market conditions; fluctuation in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. No Sageworks employee is authorized to make recommendations or give advice as to any course of action that should be made as an outcome of this data. The forward-looking statements and data speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update or revise this information as of a later date.
  • 5. Sageworksanalyst.com Neekis Hammond, CPA Principal - Advisory Services About Today’s Presenters 5
  • 6. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 6
  • 7. Sageworksanalyst.com Series Overview • Thursday, February 16th, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CECL Methodology Q&A • Thursday, February 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Unfunded Commitments & Construction Loan CECL Methodologies • Thursday, March 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Forecasting with CECL • Thursday, March 16th, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CECL Calculations in a Software Environment • Thursday, March 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Disclosures with CECL Sign up at: web.sageworks.com/cecl-methodology-webinar-series/ 7
  • 8. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 8
  • 9. Sageworksanalyst.com Data Questions related to the amount and type of historical data: • How much historical data is required? • How many historical periods do I need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data? • We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to? • We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what else are we missing? 9
  • 10. Sageworksanalyst.com Data Questions related to the amount and type of historical data: • How much historical data is required? • How many historical periods do I need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data? • We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to? • We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what else are we missing? 10
  • 12. Sageworksanalyst.com Data How much historical data is required? How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • ASU 326-20-55-20: Community Bank A, after considering underwriting standards and the contractual terms of loans that existed over the historical period, believes that the most recent 10- year period is reasonable. • 2009/2010 to 2019/2020 12
  • 13. Sageworksanalyst.com Data 13 When Will the Amendments Be Effective? For public business entities that are U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) filers, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other public business entities, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other entities, including not-for-profit entities and employee benefit plans within the scope of Topics 960 through 965 on plan accounting, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, and interim periods within fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021. All entities may adopt the amendments in this Update earlier as of the fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. An entity will apply the amendments in this Update through a cumulative-effect adjustment to retained earnings as of the beginning of the first reporting period in which the guidance is effective (that is, a modified-retrospective approach).
  • 14. Sageworksanalyst.com Data 14 When Will the Amendments Be Effective? For public business entities that are U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) filers, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other public business entities, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For all other entities, including not-for-profit entities and employee benefit plans within the scope of Topics 960 through 965 on plan accounting, the amendments in this Update are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020, and interim periods within fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021. All entities may adopt the amendments in this Update earlier as of the fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. An entity will apply the amendments in this Update through a cumulative-effect adjustment to retained earnings as of the beginning of the first reporting period in which the guidance is effective (that is, a modified-retrospective approach).
  • 18. Sageworksanalyst.com Data Questions related to the amount and type of historical data: • How much historical data is required? • How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data? • We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to? • We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what else are we missing? 18
  • 20. Sageworksanalyst.com Data Questions related to the amount and type of historical data: • How much historical data is required? • How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data? • We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to? • We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what else are we missing? 20
  • 21. Sageworksanalyst.com Data 21 14.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.4% 12.6% 24.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.69% 0.65% 1.36% 1.24% 1.06% 0.97% 1.04% 0.95% 0.91% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
  • 22. Sageworksanalyst.com Data Questions related to the amount and type of historical data: • How much historical data is required? • How many historical periods do we need to include; do they need to be stored monthly, quarterly, or annually? • We have call report data going back n years; do we have enough data? • We have loan number, balance, and loan term information stored; is this what you’re referring to? • We have origination information, loan number, loan balance, and loan-level chargeoff data; what else are we missing? 22
  • 23. Sageworksanalyst.com Data ASU 326: • 20-55-10 through 14 “addresses the meaning of the term portfolio segment • 20-55-15 through 16 “addresses the application of the term credit quality indicator • “as of the balance sheet date, the entity should use the most current information it has obtained” 23 http://www.fasb.org/jsp/FASB/FASBContent_C/CompletedProjectPage&cid=1176168232014
  • 24. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 24
  • 25. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life: • How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go into more details on how it is related to attrition analysis? • Is attrition count based or dollar based? • When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life? • How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated? 25
  • 26. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life: • How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go into more detail on how it is related to attrition analysis? • Is attrition count based or dollar based? • When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life? • How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated? 26
  • 29. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life: • How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to attrition analysis? • Is attrition count based or dollar based? • When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life? • How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated? 29
  • 30. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Is attrition count based or dollar based? • In a sample of N equally likely outcomes mathematicians assign a chance (or weight) of 1/N to each outcome • The probability of an event is defined as the number of certain outcomes divided by the total number of equally likely outcomes in the sample space of the experiment. • Using a dollar based approach implies an already determined (supportable) correlation to attrition rates. • 11 Loans; 10 @ $1, and 1 @ $90. $90 exits the portfolio over the analysis period. Should we then assume 9 of the remaining 10 loans will exit in the following quarter? • If dollars are correlated to behavior, that implies a risk variance between loans within a pool that is, by definition, intended to contain loans with similar risk characteristics 30
  • 31. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life: • How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to attrition analysis? • Is attrition count based or dollar based? • When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life? • How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated? 31
  • 32. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life 32 LOAN NUMBER 4.A CAPITAL EXPENDITURES GL Balance 115,000,000.00 Segment 4.a CapEx Subsegment Pass Date 12/31/2015 Interest Rate 5.50% Discount Rate 1.53% Payment Type Balloon Payment Amt 3,472,528.71 Mat Date 1/31/2020 Nper 36 Renewal Assumption (months) - CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) 33.00% SMM (Standard Monthly Mortality) 3.28% PD (Probability of Default) 2.47% CDR (Constant Default Rate) 0.21% LGD (Loss Given Default) 25.44% Recovery Delay (Foreclosure Lag) 12
  • 33. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life 33 LOAN NUMBER 4.A CAPITAL EXPENDITURES GL Balance 115,000,000.00 Segment 4.a CapEx Subsegment Pass Date 12/31/2015 Interest Rate 5.50% Discount Rate 1.53% Payment Type Balloon Payment Amt 3,472,528.71 Mat Date 1/31/2020 Nper 36 Renewal Assumption (months) - CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) 33.00% SMM (Standard Monthly Mortality) 3.28% PD (Probability of Default) 2.47% CDR (Constant Default Rate) 0.21% LGD (Loss Given Default) 25.44% Recovery Delay (Foreclosure Lag) 12
  • 34. Sageworksanalyst.com 115,000,000 113,830,961 4,129,933 108,090,635 9,072,700 2,779,432 1,050,572 3,079,361 123,022,127 GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED PRINCIPAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED LOSS ESTIMATED RECOVERY CASH FLOW DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS Contractual Life 34
  • 35. Sageworksanalyst.com 115,000,000 113,830,961 4,129,933 108,090,635 9,072,700 2,779,432 1,050,572 3,079,361 123,022,127 GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED PRINCIPAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED LOSS ESTIMATED RECOVERY CASH FLOW DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS Contractual Life 35
  • 38. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life Questions related to determination and utilization of contractual life: • How do you calculate the average life for the loan? Can you go more details on how it is related to attrition analysis? • Is attrition count based or dollar based? • When do we use a prepayment rate such as CPR or SMM and when do we use expected life? • How do you calculate the prepayment rate? Can you go into more detail on how it is calculated? 38
  • 39. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life 39 Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91% - (150,000,000) 12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04% 1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29% 2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93% 3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76% 4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25% 5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26% 6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39% 7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18% 8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
  • 40. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life 40 Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91% - (150,000,000) 12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04% 1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29% 2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93% 3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76% 4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25% 5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26% 6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39% 7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18% 8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
  • 41. Sageworksanalyst.com Contractual Life 41 Date Period Beginning Balance Expected Principal Expected Interest End of Month Balance Principal Collection SMM CPR TOTAL 113,113,050 13,947,211 1.55% 16.91% - (150,000,000) 12/31/2015 1 150,000,000 1,065,070 393,750 146,274,115 2,660,815 1.06% 12.04% 1/31/2016 2 146,274,115 1,074,851 383,970 142,534,477 2,664,787 1.09% 12.29% 2/29/2016 3 142,534,477 1,084,667 374,153 138,864,780 2,585,030 1.05% 11.93% 3/31/2016 4 138,864,780 1,094,300 364,520 134,151,365 3,619,114 1.82% 19.76% 4/30/2016 5 134,151,365 1,106,673 352,147 130,100,329 2,944,363 1.37% 15.25% 5/31/2016 6 130,100,329 1,117,307 341,513 125,697,376 3,285,646 1.67% 18.26% 6/30/2016 7 125,697,376 1,128,865 329,956 120,131,821 4,436,690 2.63% 27.39% 7/31/2016 8 120,131,821 1,143,474 315,346 116,324,217 2,664,130 1.27% 14.18% 8/31/2016 9 116,324,217 1,153,469 305,351 111,247,654 3,923,093 2.38% 25.11%
  • 42. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 42
  • 43. Sageworksanalyst.com Segmentation Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation: • We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk rating? • Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code? • If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator & thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works? • FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator 43
  • 44. Sageworksanalyst.com Segmentation Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation: • We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk rating? • Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code? • If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator & thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works? • FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator 44
  • 45. Sageworksanalyst.com Segmentation ASU 326-20-55-5,12,15 • Payment Structure • Interest Only, Balloon, Amortizing, etc. • Contract Term • 30 yr., 15 yr., 3/1 or 5/1 ARM, Revolving, etc. • Interest Rate • Fixed/Variable • Exposure/Loan Type • Call Code, Product Type, Loan Purpose, etc. • Example: 1.c.2.a, 4.a, 1st Lien Residential, 2nd Lien Residential, HELOC, New Auto, Used Auto, Unsecured, commercial equipment, etc. 45
  • 48. Sageworksanalyst.com Segmentation Questions related to segmentation and sub-segmentation: • We presently segregate our pooled loans by loan type (collateral) and then by risk rating. Under CECL, would you anticipate segregating by product type, then collateral type and then risk rating? • Can we simply break out our loan pools by call code? • If FICO is considered a risk identifier then isn’t the most current FICO the important indicator & thus 5 years of data with only 2 years of FICO works? • FICO, as referenced in this question, is analogous with risk rating or any other credit quality indicator 48
  • 51. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 51
  • 52. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan? • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless? • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 52
  • 53. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan? • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless? • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 53
  • 56. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan? • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless? • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 56
  • 57. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? ASU 326-20-6, 326-20-50-7, 310-20-35-9,10,11,12 In most cases, a renewal would result in a "new loan" for vintage or any life-of-loan analysis. The guidance contained within the new standard (ASU 326/CECL) points to a "more than minor" test contained within ASC 310-20: "This condition would be met if the new loan’s effective yield is at least equal to the effective yield for such loans and modifications of the original debt instrument are more than minor." In practice, more than minor has been determined to be >10% change in NPV. Also, short-term extensions that facilitate administrative needs are ignored and/or do not meet the "more than minor" test. For example, a 90-day extension would likely not constitute a new loan while a full 3- year renewal would. 57
  • 59. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan? • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless? • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 59
  • 63. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis, are we only concerned with the beginning credit quality indicator and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan? • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless? • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 63
  • 67. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis are we just concerned with where a loan started, say grade 3 and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan. • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless. • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 67
  • 70. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Vintage • Do you need to have both the origination date and renewal date? Is it ok to replace the first origination date with the renewal date when it happens? • Regarding extensions/renewed loans, do you count the extended/renewed life as part of the life of the loan? • Migration • What's optimal for loss rate calculation? 36 months? Longer? Shorter? • When we are talking about migration analysis are we just concerned with where a loan started, say grade 3 and how much of that pool moved to loss OR are we following the pool through all grade changes through the life of the loan. • Why are you using 3-year old data? Why not use 2014-2016? Sure, you'll have some loans that weren't in existence for the entire 3-year life of the pool, but that will be the case for any pool. It would seem that 2011-2013 loss data for setting loss rates for 2017 and forward is nearly worthless. • The outputs are measuring loss rates, not the migration from one risk rating to another. In my institution loss typically occur once a credit gets to a specific risk rating. Therefore, loss rates in every risk rating category, except that one, will essentially be 0. Am I understanding that correctly? 70
  • 73. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology - Continued Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply • We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of default model? • Discounted Cash Flow • We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross application? • Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct? 73 Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
  • 74. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology - Continued Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply • We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of default model? • Discounted Cash Flow • We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross application? • Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct? 74 Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
  • 75. Sageworksanalyst.com 1.25 3.25 3.75 2.15 1.75 4.25 WORKING CAPITAL LOC EQUIPMENT VEHICLE CREDIT CARD CONSTRUCTION SBA AVERAGE LIFE Evaluating Risk Characteristics 75
  • 76. Sageworksanalyst.com Evaluating Risk Characteristics 76 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 ANNUAL LOSS RATE & EXPECTED LOSS RATE RELATIVE TO AVERAGE LIFE Annual Loss Rate Expected Loss
  • 77. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology - Continued Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply • We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of default model? • Discounted Cash Flow • We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross application? • Our institution is only $500MM, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct? 77 Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
  • 83. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology 83 External Factor (National Data) R Square * Slope ** Lead (months) Real GDP growth 20.51% -0.02% 18 Nominal GDP growth 27.45% -0.02% 18 Real disposable income growth 0.85% 0.00% 18 Nominal -disposable income growth 2.51% 0.00% 18 Unemployment rate 54.64% 0.05% 3 CPI inflation rate 0.12% 0.00% 6 3-month Treasury rate 9.56% -0.02% 6 5-year Treasury yield 0.62% -0.01% 6 10-year Treasury yield 2.45% 0.02% 6 BBB corporate yield 42.89% 0.07% 12 Mortgage rate 0.59% 0.01% 6 Prime rate 10.71% -0.02% 6 Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index (Level) 31.62% 0.00% 18 House Price Index (Level) 39.44% 0.00% 6 Commercial Real Estate Price Index (Level) 44.19% 0.00% 6 Market Volatility Index (Level) 37.21% 0.01% 18 Multi-Regression Statistics Result Adjusted R Square 79.65% Standard Error 0.05% Observations 49 Regression Utilization Coefficients *** Intercept 0.04% Commercial Real Estate Price Index (Level) 0.00% Unemployment rate 0.03% BBB corporate yield 0.04% Market Volatility Index (Level) 0.00%
  • 84. Sageworksanalyst.com Methodology - Continued Questions related to calculating historical loss experience: • Probability of Default & Loss Given Default – note that migration principles apply • We subscribe and/or calculate the probability of default at our institution. Can we use our current probability of default model? • Discounted Cash Flow • We’re approaching $10B and are looking for a solution for DFAST and CECL. Which approach is ideal for cross application? • We’re a small institution, we don’t need to do complex modeling such as DCF; correct? 84 Note – This is not a complete list of all methodologies that can be used to determine historical loss experience
  • 88. Sageworksanalyst.com 115,000,000 113,830,961 123,022,127 GL BALANCE PV CASH FLOW DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS DCF Analysis 88
  • 90. Sageworksanalyst.com 115,000,000 113,830,961 4,129,933 108,090,635 9,072,700 2,779,432 1,050,572 3,079,361 123,022,127 GL BALANCE PV DEFAULTED PRINCIPAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST PREPAYMENT ESTIMATED LOSS ESTIMATED RECOVERY CASH FLOW DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW RESULTS DCF Analysis 90
  • 91. Sageworksanalyst.com Agenda • Series Overview • Question and Answer • Data • Contractual Life • Segmentation • Methodology • General/Miscellaneous 91
  • 92. Sageworksanalyst.com General/Miscellaneous General questions regarding the new standard and the impact: • Some claim CECL may drive an increase in reserves, as much as doubling, or more. Should bank and credit unions worry how their data will be incorporated into stress testing? • “CECL is being delayed…” • “New administration will abolish CECL with regulatory reform…” • “ABA advocating to delay implementation…” 92
  • 94. Sageworksanalyst.com Credit Unions are particularly vulnerable to the new standard given the industries application of qualitative and environmental factors and/or the relationship between annual loss rates and reserve levels: General/Miscellaneous 94 Greater Than 1 Year in Q&E 46%Less Than 1 Year in Q&E 54% Greater Than 6 months in Q&E 64% Less Than 6 months in Q&E 36%