2. | Economic Indicators |2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2013
Europe:
• Consensus August GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,2% to -0,1% for 2013 and remained
on 1,1% for 2014.
• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in July.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in July.
Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month, and although
the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic.
• Q2 GDP finally advanced following six consecutive quarters of decline, rising by 0,3% q-o-q
after a fall in the same size in Q1. July’s composite PMI finally broke into expansionary territory,
as did the manufacturing PMI, underscoring a cautious recovery. Thus the Euro area outlook
could be turning more upbeat – however, the periphery remains in deep retrenchment.
US:
• Consensus August GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,8% to 1,5% for 2013 and from
2,7% to 2,6% for 2014.
• The advance Q2 national accounts showed heavy revisions to the historical data, including
2012 GDP which is now estimated to have expanded by 2,8% instead of 2,2% previously. GDP
figure now includes more of the ‘knowledge economy’ including intellectual property and R&D.
This revision also contributed to this month’s downgrade of the 2013 GDP forecast.
Japan:
• The August GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and on 1,5% for 2014.
• June industrial production dipped for the first time in five months, while the manufacturing
purchasing manager’s index for July eased to a four-month low. On the other side the
unemployment rate fell below 4% for the first time since 2008.
4. | Economic Indicators |4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'07Q1
'08Q1
'09Q1
'10Q1
'11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
%
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
5. | Economic Indicators |5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
'07Q1
'08Q1
'09Q1
'10Q1
'11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
%
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
6. | Economic Indicators |6
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08/1
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
1,7
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
8. | Economic Indicators |8
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
10,9
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
%
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
9. | Economic Indicators |9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in July.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
10. | Economic Indicators |10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in July.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
11. | Economic Indicators |11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
60
65
70
75
80
85
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
78,9
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
13. | Economic Indicators |13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
14. | Economic Indicators |14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
15. | Economic Indicators |15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
16. | Economic Indicators |16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO June 13
17. | Economic Indicators |17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO June 13
18. | Economic Indicators |18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO June 13
19. | Economic Indicators |19
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Aug 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession.
Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although
the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with
regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.
20. | Economic Indicators |20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Aug 13
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession.
Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although
the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with
regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.
21. | Economic Indicators |21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO July 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry improved significantly to -3 in June.
22. | Economic Indicators |22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – June 2013:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry deteriorated again from last month to now -14% compared to
-5% in the same month of last year.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – improved due to better expectations to -3%.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months improved surprisingly
strong by 34%points to now +9%. In the same month of last year
expectations were also positive but 6%points worse than now.
Source: IFO Jul 13, bundesverband druck und medien
24. | Economic Indicators |24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: Zenith 6/13
Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013
• Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1
due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea.
5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015.
• Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year)
while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%.
• US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed
by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia
• Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising
has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet.
• Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an
average of 2-3% a year.
![| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1
Economic Indicators
Last update 20.08.2013](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/economicindicatorsaugust2013-130821035735-phpapp01/85/Economic-Indicators-August-2013-1-320.jpg)
