Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview September

1. | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
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Economic Indicators
Last update 12.9.2014

2. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – September 2014
Europe:
•Consensus September GDP forecast for WE came slightly down by 0,1%point to 1,4% for 2014 and on 1,7% for 2015.
•The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both continued to fall in August.
•The IFO Business Climate index for Germany again fell in August. The German economy continues to lose steam.
•2014 and 2015 GDP projections for most European countries have taken a hit this month following Q2 GDP data confirming that the weak Euro Zone recovery had ground to a halt. The ECB cut borrowing costs again to its lowest level ever.
US:
•Consensus September GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,1% for 2014 and on 3,1% for 2015.
•The second release of Q2 GDP confirmed the rebound following a -2,1% q-o-q slump in Q1. Business investment soared and pre-tax profit growth rebounded. Still, consumption in Q3 started on a weak note and disposable income only grew by 0,1%
Japan:
•The September GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,5% to 1,2% for 2014 and improved from 1,2% to 1,3% for 2015.
•Japan recorded a 1,8% q-o-q decline in Q2 GDP, on the back of April’s consumption tax hike. The likelihood of a second VAT hike planned for October 2015 is now in question.

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| Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data

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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year

5. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter

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Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08/1
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
0,6
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.

7. 7 | Economic Indicators |
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Sept 14
Jul.14; 0,4
Sep; 0,05
Sep; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan 08
July 08
Jan 09
Jul.09
Jan 10
Jul.10
Jan 11
July 11
Jan 12
Jul.12
Jan 13
Jul.13
Jan 14
Jul.14
Jan 15
%
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate

8. | Economic Indicators |
8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
10,2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries

9. | Economic Indicators |
9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased again slightly in August, but the industry remains in a fairly positive mood.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.

10. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued to clearly deteriorate in August
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.

11. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
60
65
70
75
80
85
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
80,5
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.

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Ifo Data

13. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
The Ifo World Economic climate brightened slightly in Q3 2014. World economic activity remains on the rise.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

14. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
The economic climate in Europe slightly fell in Q3 2014, also impacted by the Ukraine crisis.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

15. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

16. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
The economic climate in Asia recovered from its slump in the previous quarter.

17. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO July 14

18. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO July 14

19. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Sept 14

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Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Sept 14
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Business situation
6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in August. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation, but companies were also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy continues to lose steam.

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Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation
Source: IFO Sept 14
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in August. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation, but companies were also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy continues to lose steam.

22. | Economic Indicators |
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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
Source: IFO Sept 14, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry remained fairly stable on 0 in August.

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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – August 2014:
 The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved by 4%points to 0 in August.
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – did not change from June and remains balanced.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months deteriorated analogical to the same month of the previous years, but they remain in the positive area.
Source: IFO Sept 14, bundesverband druck und medien

24. | Economic Indicators |
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Zenith Data

25. | Economic Indicators |
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Global Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/14 Press Release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14

26. | Economic Indicators |
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Regional Advertising Development – Zenith 4/14 Press Release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14

27. | Economic Indicators |
27
Global Advertising Market – Zenith 4/14 Press Release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14

28. | Economic Indicators |
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Advertising by medium – Zenith 4/14 Press Release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14