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آینده پژوهشی در مطالعات گردشگری.pptx

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Sarasadat Makian
Sarasadat Makian

تعریف آینده پژوهی گردشگری نکات مثبت و منفی استفاده از آینده پژوهی سناريو نویسی متدهای مطالعات آینده

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‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫مطالعات‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫ساراسادات‬ ‫مکیان‬ - ‫دانشجوی‬ ‫دکتری‬ ‫دانشگاه‬ ‫گرنوبل‬ ‫آلپ‬ - ‫فرانسه‬
‫تفاوت‬ ‫بین‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫و‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫پژوهی‬ ‫‌پژوهی‬ ‫ه‬‫(آیند‬Futurology) ‫و‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ (Foresight) ‫دو‬ ‫مفهوم‬ ‫مرتبط‬ ‫در‬ ‫حوزه‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫هستند‬ . ‫‌پژوهی‬ ‫ه‬‫(آیند‬Futurology) ‫یا‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫آینده‬ ، ‫روشی‬ ‫است‬ ‫که‬ ‫به‬ ‫بررسی‬ ‫روندها‬ ، ‫تحوالت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫‌پردازد‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ . ‫از‬ ‫سوی‬ ‫دیگر‬ ، ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ (Foresight) ‫بیشتر‬ ‫به‬ ‫فرایندی‬ ‫اشاره‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫که‬ ‫در‬ ‫آ‬ ‫ن‬ ‫مجموعه‬ ‫ابزارها‬ ، ‫فرایندها‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫ش‬‫رو‬ ‫به‬ ‫کار‬ ‫گرفته‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫تا‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫بشناسیم‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ریزی‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫کنیم‬
‫تعریف‬ ‫مفهوم‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫مطالعات‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫در‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫به‬ ‫روشی‬ ‫اشاره‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫که‬ ‫در‬ ‫آن‬ ‫از‬ ‫‌ا‬ ‫ه‬‫مجموع‬ ‫ی‬ ‫از‬ ‫ابزارها‬ ، ‫‌ها‬ ‫ک‬‫تکنی‬ ‫و‬ ‫فرایندها‬ ‫برای‬ ‫بررسی‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌بینی‬ ‫ش‬‫پی‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫صنعت‬ ‫گردش‬ ‫گری‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫‌شود‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬. ‫هدف‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫در‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ، ‫ایجاد‬ ‫یک‬ ‫‌انداز‬ ‫م‬‫چش‬ ‫استراتژیک‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ای‬ ‫ه‬‫توسع‬ ‫برای‬ ‫بهبود‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫ی‬‫‌گیر‬ ‫م‬‫تصمی‬ ، ‫‌ریزی‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫و‬ ‫مدیریت‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫است‬ .
Makian, S., & Nematpour, M. (2022). Foresight. In Encyclopedia of Tourism Management and Marketing. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/978180037 7486.foresight
‫اهمیت‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫‌بینی‬ ‫ش‬‫پی‬ ‫و‬ ‫مدیریت‬ ‫ریسک‬ : ‫شناسایی‬ ‫روندها‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫ت‬‫فرص‬ ‫پایداری‬ ‫نوآوری‬ ‫و‬ ‫تجدیدسازی‬ ‫‌ریزی‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫استراتژیک‬
‫دالیل‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫طبیعت‬ ‫پیچیده‬ ‫و‬ ‫متنوع‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ه‬‫مؤلف‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫باعث‬ ‫‌شود‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫‌بینی‬ ‫ش‬‫پی‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫مشکل‬ ‫ولی‬ ‫ضروری‬ ‫باشد‬ ‫روندهای‬ ‫جهانی‬ ‫که‬ ‫به‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫محرکی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫در‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫‌کنند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ، ‫‌ریزان‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫را‬ ‫مجبور‬ ‫‌سازد‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫تا‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫در‬ ‫رفتار‬ ‫بازدیدکنندگان‬ ، ‫‌های‬ ‫ی‬‫نوآور‬ ‫فناورانه‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ت‬‫نی‬ ‫رقبا‬ ‫را‬ ‫‌بینی‬ ‫ش‬‫پی‬ ‫کنند‬
‫دالیل‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫طبیعت‬ ‫پویای‬ ‫و‬ ‫در‬ ‫حال‬ ‫تغییر‬ ‫روزافزون‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‫ابزارهای‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫را‬ ‫در‬ ‫‌بینی‬ ‫ش‬‫پی‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫مجاز‬ ‫‌سازد‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫ادغام‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ریزی‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫مکانی‬ ‫به‬ ‫تدوین‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫جامع‬ ‫و‬ ‫خالقانه‬ ‫تر‬ ‫کمک‬ ‫میکند‬
‫‌های‬ ‫ش‬‫رو‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬
‫سناریو‬ ‫نویسی‬ ‫سناریونویسی‬ ‫یکی‬ ‫از‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ش‬‫رو‬ ‫مهم‬ ‫و‬ ‫پرکاربرد‬ ‫در‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫است‬ . ‫در‬ ‫این‬ ‫روش‬ ، ‫سناریوهای‬ ‫مختلفی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫گروهی‬ ‫از‬ ‫افراد‬ ‫یا‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫م‬‫تی‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫داده‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬. ‫این‬ ‫روش‬ ‫در‬ ‫چهار‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫‌شود‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ : • ‫شناسایی‬ ‫موضوع‬ : ‫در‬ ‫این‬ ‫مرحله‬ ، ‫موضوع‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫سناریونویسی‬ ‫تعیین‬ ‫‌شود‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ .
‫سناریو‬ ‫نویسی‬ • ‫انتخاب‬ ‫متغیرهای‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ‫در‬ ‫این‬ ‫مرحله‬ ، ‫متغیرهای‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ‫که‬ ‫بر‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫‌گذارند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ، ‫شناسایی‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫این‬ ‫متغیرها‬ ‫‌توانند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫شامل‬ ‫عوامل‬ ‫اقتصادی‬ ، ‫فرهنگی‬ ، ‫تکنولوژی‬ ، ‫سیاسی‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌محیطی‬ ‫ت‬‫زیس‬ ‫باشند‬ • ‫توسعه‬ ‫سناریوها‬ ‫در‬ ‫این‬ ‫مرحله‬ ، ‫سناریوهای‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫براساس‬ ‫ترکیب‬ ‫مختلفی‬ ‫از‬ ‫متغیرهای‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫داده‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫هر‬ ‫سناریو‬ ‫به‬ ‫یک‬ ‫تصویر‬ ‫منحصر‬ ‫به‬ ‫فرد‬ ‫از‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫‌پردازد‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫و‬ ‫عوامل‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ، ‫رویدادها‬ ، ‫روندها‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأثیرات‬ ‫آن‬ ‫آشکار‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬
‫سناریو‬ ‫نویسی‬ • ‫تحلیل‬ ‫و‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‫سناریوها‬ ‫در‬ ‫این‬ ‫مرحله‬ ، ‫سناریوها‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫و‬ ‫ارزیابی‬ ‫‌شوند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫تا‬ ‫درک‬ ‫بهتری‬ ‫از‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫و‬ ‫اثرات‬ ‫محتمل‬ ‫رویدادها‬ ‫و‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫در‬ ‫صنعت‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫به‬ ‫دست‬ ‫آید‬ ‫این‬ ‫اطالعات‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫ل‬‫تحلی‬ ‫‌توانند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫به‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫راهنمایی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫‌ریزی‬ ‫ه‬‫برنام‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ی‬‫‌گیر‬ ‫م‬‫تصمی‬ ‫استراتژیک‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫گیرند‬ ‫سناریونویسی‬ ‫به‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫یک‬ ‫ابزار‬ ‫قوی‬ ‫در‬ ‫‌نگاری‬ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ، ‫به‬ ‫ما‬ ‫کمک‬ ‫‌کند‬ ‫ی‬‫م‬ ‫تا‬ ‫به‬ ‫ترین‬ ‫تصمیمات‬ ‫را‬ ‫براساس‬ ‫شرایط‬ ‫و‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫محتمل‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫بگیریم‬ .
‫برخی‬ ‫از‬ ‫موضوعات‬ ‫کلیدی‬ ‫در‬ ‌ ‫ه‬‫آیند‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫جمعیتی‬ ‫و‬ ‫اجتماعی‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫فناوری‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫محیط‬ ‫زیستی‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫آب‬ ‫و‬ ‫هوا‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫اقتصادی‬ ‫و‬ ‫اجتماعی‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫فرهنگی‬
‫محدودیت‬ ‫مطالعات‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫قطعیت‬ ‫نیاز‬ ‫به‬ ‫منابع‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ه‬‫داد‬ ‫مناسب‬ ‫پیچیدگی‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫م‬‫سیست‬ ‫مرتبط‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫نظریه‬ ‫و‬ ‫گرایشات‬ ‫شخصی‬
‫موضوعات‬ ‫پیشنهادی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫در‬ ‫گردشگری‬ • ‫بررسی‬ ‫نحوه‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫از‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ی‬‫تکنولوژ‬ ‫نوظهور‬ ‫مانند‬ ‫هوش‬ ‫مصنوعی‬ ، ‫واقعیت‬ ‫افزوده‬ ‫و‬ ‫واقعیت‬ ‫مجازی‬ ‫در‬ ‫ص‬ ‫نعت‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫ن‬‫آ‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تجربه‬ ‫گردشگران‬ ‫و‬ ‫تغییراتی‬ ‫که‬ ‫ممکن‬ ‫است‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫ایجاد‬ ‫شود‬ • ‫بررسی‬ ‫راهکارها‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫ت‬‫سیاس‬ ‫ممکن‬ ‫برای‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫پایدار‬ ‫و‬ ‫حفاظت‬ ‫از‬ ‫محیط‬ ‫زیست‬ ‫و‬ ‫‌های‬ ‫گ‬‫فرهن‬ ‫محل‬ ‫ی‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬. • ‫بررسی‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫اقتصادی‬ ‫و‬ ‫اجتماعی‬ ، ‫مانند‬ ‫تحوالت‬ ‫سیاسی‬ ، ‫تغییرات‬ ‫دموگرافیکی‬ ‫و‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫در‬ ‫نگرش‬ ‫‌ها‬ ‫و‬ ‫عادات‬ ‫مردم‬ ، ‫بر‬ ‫صنعت‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫و‬ ‫نحوه‬ ‫سفر‬ ‫و‬ ‫تجربه‬ ‫گردشگران‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ • ‫بررسی‬ ‫نحوه‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫گردشگری‬ ‫مجازی‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫آن‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تجربه‬ ‫گردشگران‬ ، ‫ارتباطات‬ ‫بین‬ ‫افراد‬ ‫و‬ ‫تعامالت‬ ‫فرهنگی‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ • ‫بررسی‬ ‫تغییراتی‬ ‫که‬ ‫در‬ ‫رفتارها‬ ‫و‬ ‫نیازهای‬ ‫گردشگران‬ ‫در‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫ممکن‬ ‫است‬ ‫رخ‬ ‫دهد‬ ، ‫از‬ ‫جمله‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫تغییرات‬ ‫فرهنگی‬ ، ‫فناوری‬ ‫و‬ ‫شرایط‬ ‫اقتصادی‬ ‫بر‬ ‫ترجیحات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الگوهای‬ ‫سفر‬ ‫گردشگران‬
‫پژوهش‬ ‫های‬ ‫چاپ‬ ‫شده‬ ‫در‬ ‫حوزه‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫گردشگری‬ • • ‐ •
‫پژوهش‬ ‫های‬ ‫چاپ‬ ‫شده‬ ‫در‬ ‫حوزه‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫گردشگری‬ • •
‫پژوهش‬ ‫های‬ ‫چاپ‬ ‫شده‬ ‫در‬ ‫حوزه‬ ‫آینده‬ ‫نگاری‬ ‫گردشگری‬ •

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