1. Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture
Addis Ababa
Presented by
Sertse
Sebuh
Sertse Sebuh
Audience:
Agriculture Sector
Stakeholders
1
sertse6741@yahoo.com
February 19, 2014

2. The Context
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture
Addis Ababa
Contents of
Presentation
1. The Context
2. Sectoral Break
down
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Power
• Transport
• Industry
• Buildings
3. Potentials for
Mitigation &
Green Economy
2
 Based on the World Bank Institute course
materials “Turn Down the Heat”, warming of
the climate system is unequivocal due to
increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) since
1950s
 According to the latest report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), human influence has been the
overwhelming cause of global warming at
95% certainty
 Without further commitments and action to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the
world is likely to warm by more than 3 C
above the preindustrial climate
 Through the Climate Resilient Green
Economy strategy launched in 2011,
Ethiopia has committed itself to build green
economy by 2025 by reducing its sectors

3. The Context

If Ethiopia were to pursue a conventional
economic development path to achieve its
ambition of reaching middle-income status by
2025, GHG emissions would more than double
from 150 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 400 Mt CO2e in 2030

The targeted GHGs under Ethiopian conditions
are mainly CO2, CH4, N2O
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture
Addis Ababa
Contents of
Presentation
1.
The Context
 Developing a green the integration requires the
economy
Developing a green economy requires
of economic development and GHG abatement/avoidance
integration of economic development & GHG
abatement
Combining economic growth with
low GHG
emissions, e.g.
▪ Sustainable land
use via efficient
agriculture
Development
initiatives
Green
economy
▪ Sequestration in
forests
▪ Expansion of
renewable energy
Resilient
economy
CRGE
Abatement/
avoidance
initiatives
Resilience
initiatives
▪ Resource efficient
advanced
technologies
3
Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technologies, unsustainable
growth and land use

4.  Ethiopia’s contribution to the global
increase in GHG emissions since the
industrial revolution has been practically
Federal Democratic
negligible (2010 per capita emissions of
Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture
less than 2 t CO2e )
Addis Ababa
 But
predictably
it
can
increase
significantly under fast economic growth
More than 85% of GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from
scenario
Contents of forestry and agriculture
Presentation
2. Sectoral Break
down
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Power
• Transport
• Industry
• Buildings
 More than 85% of GHG emissions in
Share of GHG emissions, 2010
Ethiopia come from forestry and
Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO e in 2010
agriculture
Share of GHG emissions, 2010
2
Industry Buildings
Transport
3% 3%
Power
3%
3%
50% Agriculture
Forestry
4
37%

5.  If a typical development path were
followed,
If a typical development path were followed, emissions
Federal Democratic
emissions would increase from 150 Mt to
would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt or 3.0 t CO2e/capita (2010 to 2030)
Republic of Ethiopia 400 Mt or
Ministry of Agriculture BAU emissions development
CAGR1
3.0 yearCO2e/capita (2010 toand rationale
t
2030)
Addis Ababa
Mt CO2e per
Percent Drivers
3.0
population and other
 Livestock: Increase in cattle-30)
400
species (doubling from 2010
 Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops
Contents of
Presentation
2. Sectoral Break
down
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Power
• Transport
• Industry
• Buildings
Agriculture
4.4%
+167%
 Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach
3.9% per year)
 Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood
consumption
1.8
150
90
5
40
75
55
5
70
5
5 5
2010
5
production) and synthetic fertilizer
185
10
2030 – BAU
1 Compound average growth rate
Forestry
Power
Transport
Industry
Buildings
2.6%
11.2%
15.7%
3.9%
 Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100%
clean/renewable generation for on (2014)
-grid
 Increase in passengerkm traveled projected
based on elasticity to real GDP
 Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on


elasticity to real GDP
Cement production (steep increase in GTP,
thereafter approach to MIClevel)
Establishment and scaleup of industries in
textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others
 Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions

6.  Surveys made to prepare the CRGE strategy
show that:
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture  Given the projected population growth of
Ethiopia, emissions on a per capita basis
Addis Ababa
would decrease from 1.8 t of CO2e to 1.1 – a
decrease of around 35% – while multiplying
GDP per capita from USD 380 to more than
USD 1,800
Contents of
Presentation
3. Potentials for
Mitigation &
Green Economy
6
 While contributing to reaching economic
and social development targets, Ethiopia
through building green economy has the
domestic potential to contribute to the
global effort by abating around 250 Mt CO2e
in 2030 as compared to conventional
development practices – this equals a
decrease in GHG emissions of up to 64%
compared to BAU in 2030

7.  If Ethiopia uses its potential for mitigation
and building green economy, it can ensure a
low-carbon
economic
development
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
pathway, decreasing per capita emissions
CRGE implementation could ensure a low-carbon economic
Ministry of Agriculture development pathway, decreasing per capita emissions by 60%
by 60%
t CO e/capita
Addis Ababa
Agriculture
Power
Industry
Emissions per year , Mt CO e
1
2
2
Forestry
Transport
Others
400
90
185
Contents of
Presentation
130
150
400
90
75
3. Potentials for
Mitigation &
Green Economy
-64%
5
55 5
5
5 5
40
10
5
145
70
10
2010
2030
BAU
1.8
Agri- Forestry Trans- Industry Builculture
port
dings
3.0
1 Rounded numbers
2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste
7
20
Green
Economy
2030
1.1
Additional
abatement
potential of
~19 Mt CO2e
from exporting
green power
to regional
markets

8. Presentation Source Materials
FDRE. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy: Green
Economy Strategy. 2011.
The World Bank. Turn Down the Heat. Climate Extremes,
Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. 2013
WBI Course. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4
Must be Avoided. 2014.
8
0
C Warmer World