Adaptation. Uncertainty, sensemaking, mindset
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Discover in this deck what VUCA means, what sensemaking is about and have access to a new sensemaking model. Want to attend our next webinar? Become a Shiftup Explorer: https://shiftup.work/product/explorer-agility-innovation-qualification-program/
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Adaptation. Uncertainty, sensemaking, mindset
- 1. Adaptation Jurgen Appelo @jurgenappelo Uncertainty, sensemaking, mindset Thursday 17 September 2020, 9:00 CEST
- 2. At the end of this session, you will… Understand what VUCA is about Understand what sensemaking is about Have access to a new sensemaking model
- 4. Let’s talk about change Photo by Simon Migaj on Unsplash
- 6. What does Tesla do differently compared to Toyota and other car manufacturers? Photo by Andreas Dress on Unsplash
- 7. Technology adoption rates are increasing Tesla embraces and causes change
- 9. The next big change: Artificial Intelligence https://www.aitrends.com/features/tractica-projects-ai-market-to-reach-36-8-b-globally-by-2025/
- 10. What else do you think is going to force companies to change?
- 13. Speed, dynamics, and randomness Unstable situation, unknown duration Fluctuations, turbulence Examples: oil prices, cryptocurrencies, games industry Volatility The pace of change
- 14. Uncertainty Lack of predictability and forecasts Surprises and turns of events Unknown causes and effects Examples: Brexit, COVID-19 vaccines, next steps of China and Russia The direction of change
- 15. Complexity (Complicatedness) Many interconnected variables Interrelated factors and forces Confounding of cause-and-effect Examples: COVID-19 policies, financial regulations, healthcare industry The amount of change
- 16. Ambiguity Fuzziness of reality, causes and effects Multiple meanings, interpretations Lack of information, many conclusions Examples: social media, artificial intelligence, diversity and inclusion The kind of change
- 17. Volatility Uncertainty AmbiguityComplexity Decreasing ability to understand the world and how to deal with it Increased confrontations with disruptions and unknown unknowns The traditional Goal - Plan - Execute approach doesn't work anymore Strategy and tactics need continuous evaluation and revision. Everyone must contribute to an increased adaptability of the organization.
- 18. Photo by jan abellan on Unsplash Photo by Science in HD on Unsplash Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous Volatile + Uncertain + Complicated + Ambiguous = Complexity What the military called complex… The scientists now call complicated.
- 20. So, what do we do now? Photo by Ozan Safak on Unsplash “Sensemaking is a collaborative process of creating shared awareness and understanding out of different individuals' perspectives and varied interests.” https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-sense-organizational-change-through-justin-balaski?articleId=6301406986009477120
- 21. https://www.goodreads.com/book/photo/818257.Sensemaking_in_Organizations Karl E. Weick Simply pushing harder within the old boundaries will not do. - Karl E. Weick
- 22. Sensemaking is perceiving and influencing the world through our chosen identities. Photo by Alex Iby on Unsplash
- 23. Sensemaking is turning signals into meaning and reinforcing understanding through speaking and writing. Photo by Senad Palic on Unsplash
- 24. Photo by Laurenz Kleinheider on Unsplash Sensemaking is having our meaning reflect where we come from and who we interact with.
- 25. Sensemaking is a continuous flow of awareness and meaning in a world that’s always changing. Photo by Mark Basarab on Unsplash
- 26. Sensemaking is about sufficiency and imperfectly moving forward as best as we can. Photo by Max Bender on Unsplash
- 27. Sensemaking “As the rate of technological, social, environmental and economic change accelerates we need to build plausible maps of the shifting world, testing these maps through observation, listening, conducting conversations, capturing diverse perspectives, harnessing the collective intelligence, interpreting data and then repeatedly refining these maps re-testing our assumptions again and again over time.” Photo by Jakayla Toney on Unsplash https://medium.com/@rlschutte/sensemaking-the-core-skill-for-the-21st-century-ebc8c679cfe8
- 28. The Cynefin Framework for sensemaking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework Clear (Obvious/Simple) ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder
- 29. Clarity Clear (Obvious/Simple) Known knowns Stable environments Obvious cause-and effect Find the proper rule and apply it Risk of bureaucracy and complacency Sense - categorize - respond
- 30. Convolution Complicated Known unknowns Experts and specialists Intricate cause-and effect Difficult to understand Work rationally toward a decision Sense - Analyze - Respond
- 31. Coherence Complex Unknown unknowns Markets, teams, cultures Cause-and-effect only in retrospect Actions change the situation Perform safe-to-fail experiments Probe-Sense-Respond
- 32. Crisis Chaotic No time to ask everyone’s input Cause-and-effect unknown Top-down communication Re-establish order quickly Any action is better than nothing Act-Sense-Respond
- 33. Confusion Incomprehensible or conflicting signals Fuzzy situation, no meaning assigned Not enough information Keep interacting until meaning forms Disorder
- 36. Any examples of businesses adapting to COVID-19?
- 37. The benefits of crisis Photo by Cata on Unsplash “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.” - Nassim N. Taleb
- 38. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don't confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13530973-antifragile
- 39. This tag cloud was created using the following sources 1 Categorical Imperative 2 Pillars of TPS 2 Pillars of The Toyota Way 2 Rules of Personal Kanban 3 Laws of Agile 3 Pillars of Scrum 4 Values of the Agile Manifesto 4 Values of Software Craftsmanship 4 Imperatives of Heart of Agile 4 Guiding Principles of Modern Agile 4 Core Values of SAFe 5 Principles of Organic Agile 5 Values of Scrum 5 Values of XP 6 Core Principles of Kanban 6 Views of Management 3.0 6 Principles of DevOps 7 Principles of Lean Development 7 Principles of ITIL 7 Principles of Agile People 7 Principles of Sociocracy 3.0 8 Principles of Product Development 9 Principles of DSDM 10 Principles of SAFe 10 Principles of LeSS 12 Principles of Beyond Budgeting 12 Principles of the Agile Manifesto 12 Principles of Ecosystem Thinking 14 Principles of the Toyota Way 14 Points of Deming
- 40. Glenda Eoyang Open to external influences, many factors and nonlinear causality, complex systems are by nature unpredictable. The best you can hope to do is to build adaptive capacity to coevolve with the system as it changes over time. - Glenda Eoyang https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16157999-adaptive-action
- 41. How do we change organizational culture? Organizational culture is a shared mindset Mindset emerges from interaction with context To change the mindset, change the context Photo by Kyndall Ramirez on Unsplash
- 43. General Stanley McChrystal Efficiency remains important, but the ability to adapt to complexity and continual change has become an imperative. - General Stanley McChrystal https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22529127-team-of-teams