DEMAND FORECASTING of DHARWAD PEDHA

KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY,DHARWAD

PROJECT REPORT ON

DEMAND FORECASTING
FOR DHARWAD PEDHA

Objective is to forecast the demand for DHARWAD PEDHA in the current scenario
and also know about the likeability among its consumers when compared with its
competitive sweets.

DEMAND FORECASTING FOR DHARWAD PEDHA

`By : Group 5(41-50)
41) Sanjeevkumar Neginahal
42) Santosh Kamble
43) Saraswati Hadapad
44) Satish Nayak
45) Satyajit Nandodkar
46) Shrikrishna Honakore
47) Shruti Jogur
48) Shweta Elemmi
49) Srikar G Patil
50) Sudarshan Kurdi


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INDEX
1.1

INTRODUCTION

1.2

NEED FOR THE STUDY

1.3

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1.4

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

1.5

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

1.6

METHOD OF STUDY

1.7

SAMPLE SIZE

1.8

SIZE ANS COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE

1.9

DATA COLLECTION

1.10 DATA INTERPRETATION
1.11 DEMAND TABULATION
1.12 RECTIFICATION
1.13 CONCLUSION
1.14 QUESTIONNAIRE
1.15 REFERENCES


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We would like to thank all the people who helped us in completing this project.
We would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to Mrs Vidula Dhulked as
well, who gave us the opportunity to do this

project on

“DEMAND

FORECASTING FOR DHARWAD PEDHA IN HUBLI-DHARWAD REGION”,
which also helped me in doing a lot of Research and knowing the current market .
We are really thankful to them. Secondly we would also like to thank my friends
who helped me a lot in completion of this project within the stipulated time.


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1.1 INTRODUCTION
Dharwad pedha is a sweet delicacy, unique to the state of Karnataka, India. It
derives its name from the city of Dharwad in Karnataka.This sweet's history is
around 175 years old. Dharwad pedha has been accorded Geographical Indication
(GI) tag Its GI tag number is 85

History
Dharwad Pedha traces its historical origin to Thakur family which migrated from
Unnao in Uttar Pradesh to Dharwad after the dreaded plague broke out there
sometime in early 19th Century. With meagre funds, Shri. Ram Ratan Singh
Thakur (first generation sweet maker) started making ‘pedhas’ and selling them
and gradually, it started becoming popular.
Shri. Ram Ratan Singh Thakur’s grandson, Shri. Babu Singh Thakur, built the
reputation of the ‘pedha’ with a missionary zeal. With no time, the ‘pedha’ became
so popular that local people of Dharwad began identifying it by his name and as
‘Line Bazaar Pedha’ (the name of the street on which the shop is located).
The technique of preparing these ‘pedhas’ however remains a closely guarded
trade secret, known only to the family members of Shri. Babusingh Thakur, as
handed down the generations, by father to son.

Babusingh Thakur had only outlet to sell Pedhas, which were made in limited
quantity for decades. But now many outlets are added.
Apart from this Mishra Pedha's are also popular, as these have more outlets &
available through the day. Mishra has many outlets in twin cities of Dharwad &

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Hubli. Apart from this the cities of Bangaluru & Pune have Dharwad Pedha
outlets.
Many local sweet shops sell similar pedhas as Dharwadi pedha in Pune.

1.2 NEED FOR THE STUDY
Dharwad pedha ,being the most sought sweet of this part of the country has its own
importance. It is a widely used delicacy and has maintained its quality right from
its inception. Though, there were many competitors, dharwad pedha could still
manage to retain its supremacy . The demand for the dharwad pedha might have
changed over time because of the various factors of competitors. As the demand
for Dharwad pedha can evolve over various factors, this topic for study would be
very much feasible to work upon.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
Dharwad Pedha has been one of the most famous legacy of dharwad. It has grown
to a greater extent from the time of its creation until now, So is the likeability and
demand for it.

In this project , our objective is to forecast the demand for

DHARWAD PEDHA in the current scenario and also know about the likeability
among its consumers when compared with its competitive sweets.


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1.4 SCOPE FOR THE STUDY:The scope of study for this project are the stores
selling DHARWAD PEDHA in HUBLI-DHARWAD region. The leading stores of
these cities were considered under survey and data was collected.
The stores from where the data is collected is as follows
1)Mishra Pedha(Old bus stand,Hubli, and Court Circle ,Dharwad)
2)Thakur Pedha(Court circle,dharwad , and Old bus stand ,Hubli)
3) Nandini Sweets ,Hubli
4) Vijaya Sweets,Dharwad
1.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
 This study is limited to only 100 samples when compared to huge population
of HUBLI-DHARWAD region.
 All possibilities that actual likeability of dharwad pedha may differ .
 The data collected through questionnaires might not be 100% accurate
 The data or information collected from the retailer may not be transparent.
1.6 METHOD OF STUDY
The study on demand for dharwad pedha is carried out by the following
methodology of study
Study is conducted through Questionnaires,Interviews,Observations and
Social Media


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1) Questionnaire :through

The primary information was collected
a

set

of

questions

regarding

quality,price,likeability,competitors,retailers and Brand image etc. The
questionnaire also asked the samples to rate the product on a scale of 1 to 10
with 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest.

2) Interview :
The information was also collected through a set of questions
Asked during an interview with customers . The questions were asked
regarding the quality of Dharwad pedha and the customers perception on
dharwad pedha’s evolution over time.
The interview was also conducted
with the retailers and information was collected regarding the sales per day
and the quantity produced per day and the preferences that has come among
the customers regarding the substitutes for Dharwad pedha.

3) Observations : During the coarse of study , we also made some
observations regarding the quantity of dharwad pedha that a customer buys
generally and the total sale of dharwad pedha in a day and the customer’s
perception about the price and quantity offered.


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4) Source of Secondary Information(Internet):The data was also collected
through a set of questions to the people out of HUBLI-DHARWAD through
SOCIAL MEDIA. i.e Facebook. Questions regarding popularity and the
image of DHARWAD PEDHA outside the study area was also studied.
1.7 SAMPLE SIZE
During the coarse of study, the data was collected through questionnaire method
from a sample of 100 consumers who opined differently on the set of questions
asked.
1.8 SIZE AND THE COMPOSITION OF SAMPLE
The study on demand for DHARWAD PEDHA constituted a sample of 100 and
the following pie chart depicts the percentage of consumers under different age

AGE GROUP
7%

16-22
12%

23-28
29-32

48%

33-45
33%


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The age group which lies between 32-45 is the most populated in a sample size of
100 customers where in 48% of them come under the actual age group of
consumers who buy Dharwad Pedha, i.e Parents/middle aged group in the society
1.9 DATA COLLECTION :The data for survey was collected through primary research
1) Primary Research:
The

primary

research

included

questionnaires,interviews and observations with the consumers and retailers
respectively. 100 samples of the survey were collected and scrutinized.
1.10 DATA INTERPRETATION
The following pie chart depicts the percentage of people aware about the
DHARWAD PEDHA in HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

AWARENESS ABOUT DHARWAD PEDHA
5%
Aware about the product
Unaware about the product
95%

From the above chart we can state that the majority of the samples from
whom the data is collected is aware about the product.

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The following pie chart depicts the percentage of people who have tasted
DHARWAD PEDHA.

10%

PEOPLE WHO HAVE TASTED
DHARWAD PEDHA
90%
PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT
TASTED DHARWAD PEDHA

From the above 2 pie charts we can clearly state that 90% of the taken sample size
knows about Dharwad Pedha and have tasted it where as there are 5% of them who
do not know about dharwad pedha and have not tasted it and there is also 5% of the
sample size who know about the product but they have not tasted it yet

5%

5%
AWARE AND TASTED
AWARE BUT NOT TASTED
90%


NOT AWARE AND NOT TASTED

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The following bar chart states the popularity of producers and retailers
of Dharwad Pedha among the customers in HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

60
50
1st Preference

40

2nd Preference
30
3rd preference
20

4th preference

10
0
Thakur Pedha

Mishra Pedha

Vijaya Sweets

Nandini
Dharwad Pedha

From the above bar chart we can clearly see that the consumers have preferred the
first choice of DHARWAD PEDHA as MISHRA PEDHA followed by THAKUR
PEDHA, VIJAYA SWEETS and NANDINI DHARWAD PEDHA.


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The following chart shows the consumers perception on the price of dharwad
pedha.

PRICE
13%
35%
250-280/kg

22%

281-300/kg
301-320/kg
321-350/kg
30%

From the above pie chart we can see that 35% of the taken sample thinks that the
price range of DHARWAD PEDHA lies between 250-280/kg where as
subsequently 30% think it is 281-300/kg, 22% think that it is 301-320/kg and the
remaining 13% think it is 321-350/kg.


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During the study, when we interviewed number of consumers and retailers and
asked them about the reduction in demand of Dharwad Pedha over the time
because of sugar consciousness of people, the following results were found out.

SUGAR CONSCIOUSNESS AFFECTING
DEMAND
Partially agree
7%

Partially Disagree

17%

Fully agree
51%

Fully Disagree

25%

The above chart shows that 51% of the taken sample thinks that the demand for
dharwad pedha has reduced as people are being more sugar conscious which is
partially true because when interviewing the retailers or manufacturers they
revealed that people are demanding of sugar free dharwad pedha as they are Health
conscious.


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Dharwad Pedha has constantly been the stand out performer in sweets category and
has been maintaining a decent demand in the market. During the study we tried to
know the reason for the constant demand and found out that the following are the
reasons for it

Reasons for Constant demand of DHARWAD
PEDHA
50
40
30
20
10
0
Gifting Sweets

Celebrations
and festivals

Guest Visits

All the above
other reasons

From the above chart we can see that most number of sample size agree to the
point that there is no specific reason for constant demand of dharwad pedha in
market and the demand is affected by various reasons such as gifts from
relatives,for festivals and celebrations and visit to guests and also adding to the
point some percentage of the sample also state reasons apart from the given ones
such as
1) After Exam Results
2) Marriage Occasions
3) Birthdays
4) Vacation Seasons etc…


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The following chart shows on an average the number of kilograms that a
consumer buys in a month .

Average number of kgs bought
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
500 gms

1 kg

more than 5 kg

more than 7 kg

From the above chart we can see that on an average most number of consumers
purchase 1kg of dharwad pedha per month, may be for various reasons mentioned
in the previous chart.


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During the study of our project when we asked the customers regarding the reasons
to buy dharwad pedha when they think of sweets.We got the following results.

Reasons
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
unique taste

longevity

quality

the brand
"DHARWAD PEDHA"

From the above diagram we can see that more than half of the taken sample
goes with DHARWAD PEDHA because of its uniqueness in its taste which
has been irreplaceable from its inception.
The graph also shows that 1/4th of
the taken sample feels that “THE BRAND DHARWAD PEDHA” has made
a long lasting impression and hence they go with it


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The following chart shows the likeability of the sample consumers.

Rating on a scale of 1 to 10
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

The above results were found during the sample survey when the sample
consumers were asked to rate DHARWAD PEDHA as compared to other
sweets on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest.
And the results revealed that most of the sample size rated Dharwad Pedha
between 7 to 8 which is a decent score. And from this we can say that
majority of people still prefer Dharwad Pedha over other sweets.


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The following data shows the consumers perception on current price of Dharwad
Pedha.

PRICE PERCEPTION
13

15

expensive
affordable

30
42

average

The above depiction of the pie chart depicts that approximately half of the
surveyed sample consumers of dharwad pedha think that the current price of
dharwad pedha is affordable where as similar percentage of surveyed sample
consumers of dharwad pedha think that it is an average price for the product.


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As the above chart depicts that most of the surveyed sample consumer of dharwad
pedha say that dharwad pedha is available at an affordable or average price so is
the following pie chart which depicts the number of consumers who think that
Dharwad Pedha is worth its present price.

PRICE WORTHINESS
20

yes

no

80

The above chart states that 80% of the population feels that its worth the
price they pay for DHARWAD PEDHA. This can be accounted on various
factors such as longevity,unique taste etc.


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When the surveyed sample size was asked about their perception on the uniqueness
of taste that DHARWAD PEDHA has retained , the following results were found
out.

UNIQUENESS QUOTIENT
50

45

45
40
35
30

25

25
20

15

15
10

4.5

5
0
yes

no

retween yes &
no

can't say

The above pie chart shows that approximately half of the surveyed sample
believes that DHARWAD PEDHA has retained its uniqueness of taste over
time where as 15% of the taken sample feels that DHARWAD PEDHA has
not retained its uniqueness over time and around 25% of the taken sample
has been neutral on the question.


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When consumers were asked to choose a substitute for Dharwad pedha,
The following results were found out.

SUBSTITUTES
5

12

16

5

mysore pak
belgaum kunda
khaju katri
others pls specify
62

none of yhe above

The chart clearly shows that BELGAUM KUNDA holds a major share as far as
substitute for DHARWAD PEDHA is concerned where as all the other
substitutes like mysore pak,kaju katri are in very small numbers as compared
with the major substitute BELGAUM KUNDA.

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1.11 DEMAND TABULATION
The following demand details were collected from retailers and using this the
demand for next 3 days is calculated.
LEAST SQUARE METHOD
DAYS

DEMAND

X

X2

XY

Y=a+bx

(in kgs)
MONDAY

98

-3

9

-294

76.69

TUESDAY

103

-2

4

-206

108.65

WEDNESDAY

145

-1

1

-145

140.61

THURSDAY

152

0

0

0

172.57

FRIDAY

180

1

1

180

204.53

SATURDAY

230

2

4

460

236.49

SUNDAY

300

3

9

900

268.45

∑x2=28

∑xy=895

∑ Y=1208

MONDAY 

Y=172.57+31.96(+4) = 300.41

TUESDAY 

Y=172.57+31.96(+5) = 332.37

WEDNESDAY 

Y=172.57+31.96(+6) = 364.33

a= ∑y/n=1208/7=172.57
b= ∑xy/x2= 895/28=31.96


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1.12 RECTIFICATION OF FORECAST ERROR

The tabulated demand forecasting figure was compared with the actual demand
that took place for MONDAY,TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY and found out the
following results
DAY

TABULATED

ACTUAL

FORECAST

DEMAND(in kgs)

SALES(in kgs)

ERROR(in kgs)

MONDAY

300.41

290

10.41

TUESDAY

332.37

311

22.37

WEDNESDAY

367.43

321

46.43

1.13 CONCLUSION :
From the above table we can asses that there has been differences between the
calculated demand and the actual sales of dharwad pedha when asked for the
reason from the retailers. The answer received stated that due to the on going
marriage season have positively effected the sales of DHARWAD PEDHA.
According to the retailers and manufacturers of DHARWAD PEDHA, there has
been increase in the sales of DHARWAD PEDHA when compared to last week
sales.
When interviewed ,they also stated that such sudden increase in the demand
is a common factor for them when influenced by the festive seasons, marriage
seasons and they also said that they are expecting more sales in the coming week
as the city is fast approaching towards DHARWAD UTSAV.


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1.14 QUESTIONNAIRE

Dear Respondents
We thank for your valuable time and co-operation given for the survey through this
survey we seek to understand your views & opinions about Dharwad Pedha in Hubli, Dharwad
Name:
Age:
Occupation:
Location of Residence:

1) Have you heard of DHARWAD Pedha? Yes or No
2) Have you tasted Dharwad Pedha? Yes or No
3) When you hear of Dharwad Pedha which of the following do you prefer? Rank them
accordingly.
a) Babusingh Thakur Pedha
b) Mishra pedha
c) Vijaya Sweets
d) Nandini Dharwad pedha.

4) What do you think is the price of Dharwad Pedha ( per Kg)?
a) Rs. 250 to 280
b) Rs. 280 to 300

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c) Rs. 300 to 320
d) Rs. 320 to 350

5) Do you think demand for Dharwad Pedha has reduced over time, because people are more
sugar conscious?
a) Partially agree

b) Partially disagree

c) Fully agree

d) fully disagree

6) Being a localite you may not eat dharwad pedha on a regular basis, then what are the other
reasons that people still buy dharwad pedhas?
a) For gifting sweets to family & relatives
b) During celebrations & festive seasons
c) When guests visit us
d) All the above
e) Others please specify

7) On an average how many kg’s of Dharwad Pedha you buy per month? For self use or for
others included
a)500gms

b) 1 kg c)more than 5 kg

d)more than 7kg e) None

8) What makes you to go with dharwad pedha when you think of sweets?
Unique Taste
Longevity

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Quality
The brand “DHARWAD PEDHA”

9). How do you rate Dharwad Pedha on the scale of 1 to 10

10). what do you think about the price of Dharwad Pedha?
a) Expensive

b) Affordable

c) Average d) No comments

11)) Do you think dharwad pedha is worth its present price.
If YES why------------------------------------------------------If no why----------------------------------------------------------

12) Do you think Dharwad pedha have retained its uniqueness of taste over time
a) Yes

b) NO c) Between Yes & NO D) Can’t Say

13) Over time we see there have been several new centres of Dharwad pedha. On one side it’s
easily accessible, but on other side it has become too commercial. What do you think about its
goodwill & popularity over time? Please Comment:


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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------14) Which of the following can you substitute with dharwad pedha
a) Mysore Pak
b) Belgaum Kunda
c) Kaju katri
d) Others pls specify
e) None of the above

15. What is your feel about Dharwad Pedha??
……………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………..
……………………………………………………………………

16) What changes or suggestions would you like to suggest to the makers of Dharwad pedha
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Thank you for your time…

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1.15 Bibiliography
1) Wikipedia


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