1. “BUILT ENVIRONMENT FUTURES”
Sustainability, Responsibility and Leadership
John S Ratcliffe
Visiting Professor
University of Salford
Salford
April 2011

3. Is this humanity’s last
century – or a century
that sets the world on a
course towards a
spectacular new future?
A NEW MINDSET
“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose
horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things
that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

4. “FLIGHT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY:
„ICARUS‟ OR „THE PHOENIX‟ ”
 A Confluence of Powerful
Trends
 Problems Seem Intractable
 The Demographics of
Discord
 The „New Players‟
 Problems are Structural
“The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful”
(Gaius Julius Caesar)

5. “ICARUS” – PREVAILING PESSIMISM
 Population Growth
 Climate Change
 Food and Water
 Safety and Security
 Energy Deficit
“If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.”
(Irwin Corey)

6. “THE PHOENIX” – RATIONAL OPTIMISM
 Urban Prospect
 Developing Technology
 A New Economy
 The Natural Step
 New Nuclear
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity
in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)

7. CREATING A NEW MINDSET
Futures, Foresight and Scenarios
PAST HISTORIC
PRESENT INDICATIVE
FUTURE IMPERFECT
Strategic foresight is having a view of what can be done
by organisations today to positively influence the future.

8. SYSTEMS THINKING AND FUTURES
“The main difference that distinguishes the 21st century from those
that preceded it is the need to create a mindset that can tackle the
conscious design of large systems”
“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind”
(Winston Churchill)

9. CHANGING THE METAPHOR FOR ORGANISATIONS
“From machines to complex adaptive systems”
“It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.” (W. Edwards Deming)

10. „MECHANISTIC‟ Worldview (Occidental)
 Rationalism and empiricism
 Observations, measurement and logical
analysis
 Residing within a lineal casual framework
 Machine, understood and measured by
properties of parts
 Categories and hierarchies
“In ecological terms it is anthropocentric within the human race seen as separate
from and above nature …”

11. „Systematic‟ Worldview (Oriental)
 Holism and communalism
 Tools are intuition, participation &
adaptability
 All residing within a cyclical causal
framework
 World as an organisation, system with
sub-systems
 Whole greater than sum of part
“In an ecological terms it is eco-centric, with the human race as an inextricable part
of the planetary system…”

12. FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS
Discipline Adaptiveness
Planning Discovery
Hard Assets Knowledge
Structure Process
Controls Values
Inside-out Outside-in
Size Speed
Management Leadership
“The things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen are
eternal.“ (II Corinthians 4.1:18)

13. FUTURES ORIENTED THINKING
“In the context of creating a better built environment, the use of futures
methods offers a rigorous, comprehensive and integrated approach
towards anticipating, planning and implementing sustainable urban
development, relying, as it does, more on intuition, participation and
adaptability than conventional strategic thinking and planning systems.”
Emergence
Frameworks
Multiple So
&
Perspectives What?
Structure
“Cheer up – the worst is yet to come!”

14. WHY FORESIGHT?
 Running a 21st century organisation
more complex
 Need to understand driving forces of
change
 Trends matter – weak signals count
 Anticipation and exploration prerequisite
 Rehearsing alternative futures
“Knowing others is wisdom, knowing yourself is Enlightenment.”
(Lao Tzu)

15. WHAT IS FORESIGHT?
 Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of
what can be done by organisations today to
positively influence the future.
 SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-
quality, coherent and functional forward view,
and to use the insights arising in
organisationally useful ways.
 SF is about thinking, debating and shaping the
future.
“Being loved deeply by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply
gives you courage.” (Lao Tzu)

16. FORESIGHT TEAMS CONTRIBUTION
 Anticipating emerging issues
 Identifying unintended
consequences
 Getting a sense of the big picture
 Drawing on a wide range of
information sources
 Involving all concerned
“The words of truth are always paradoxical”
(Lao Tzu)

17. THE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS
 Framing the Strategic Question(s)
 Scanning the Horizon
 Forecasting Alternative Futures
 Visioning A Preferred Future
 Planning Strategic Options
 Acting on an Agreed Agenda
“He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted.”
(Lao Tzu)

18. PROSPECTIVE THROUGH SCENARIOS
High to Low Importance
Set the Strategic Question
Strategic
Conversations
Divergence Identify the Driving Forces of Causal Layered
Change Horizon Scanning Analysis
Determine the Main Issues and Delphi Survey
Trends
Cross-Impact
Analysis
Clarify the Level of Impact and
Degree of Uncertainty Prospective
Workshops
Establish Scenario Logics Clustering
Emergence
Polarising
Create Different Scenarios
Ranking
Test Policy Options Morphological
Analysis
Identify Turning Points Creative Writing
Convergence Produce Prospective Wind Tunnel
Testing
Move to Strategic Planning Gaming and
Simulation
“The future is that period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true,
and our happiness is assured” (Ambrose Bierce)

19. SCENARIO TYPOLOGY
Evolutionary Catastrophic Transformational
Conventional Worlds Barbarisation Great Transitions
Market Policy Breakdown Fortress Eco - New
Forces Reform World Communalism Sustainability
Paradigm
Muddling Through
“Show me someone who doesn't dream about the future and I'll show you
someone who doesn't know where they are going”

20. SCENARIO LOGICS (TWICE THE SIZE)
“When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it
that something remarkably silly will be done”

21. GLOBAL OUTCOMES
Global Outcomes
Outsights
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we
now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all
there ever will be to know and understand.” (Albert Einstein)

22. WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS?
“Can we go on like this?”
 Meta-forces
 Macro-forces
 Micro-forces
“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend
to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)

23. THREE META-FORCES
 VALUES
 VISIONS
 VECTORS
“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental
long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)

24. However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future….
Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.
Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.)

25. VALUES
The Transformation Towards
A Sustainable Responsible Civilization
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”
(Edmund Burke)

26. Ecological footprint
Improving people‟s health and
well-being while respecting the
DOWN
limits of natural resources
UP
Human Development
Index*
Health &
Well-being
*HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power
Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."

27. THE GREAT GLOBAL VALUES DEBATE
 Millennium Development Goals
 Cultures Consequences
 Spiral Dynamics
 World Values Survey
 Interfaith Dialogue
“Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )

28. CULTURAL VALUES MAP
“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others”
(Albert Camus)

29. CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS TIME
“What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of
questioning.” (Werner Heisenberg)

30. VISIONS
“Twenty-first Century Enlightenment”
 Self-Aware Autonomy
 Empathetic Universalism
 Progress and Ethics
 The Social Aspiration Gap
 Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment
“Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience
clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver”
(Thomas Paine)

31. To a sustainable world in 2050
From business-as-usual

32. To a sustainable world in 2050
2050
From business-as-usual

33. To a sustainable world in 2050
TODAY
From business-as-usual

34. VECTORS
“An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter”
 Globalisation
 Urbanisation
 Environmentalism
 Internet
 Social Media
 Faith – Based Movements
 Terrorism
 Pandemics
“The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.”
(Bill Gates )

35. proGective -- Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT©

36. GLOBAL RISKS LANDSCAPE 2011
“If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent
people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid‟” (John Maynard Keynes)

37. RISKS INTERCONNECTION MAP 2011
“Fundamentalism is a specter stalking the globe, but Islam is not its synonym”
(Rana Kabbani)

38. RISKS IN FOCUS
Cross-cutting global risks: Economic disparity and global governance failures
“These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress
without compassion, wealth without work, learning without silence, religion without
fearlessness and worship without awareness.” (Anthony de Mello)

39. MACRO-FORCES
THE FIVE CRUCIBLES OF CHANGE
1. The Great Rebalancing
2. Global Connectivity
3. Planetary Stewardship
4. The Productivity Imperative
5. The Market State
“They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.”
(Confucius)

40. 1. THE GREAT REBALANCING
 The „depletion‟ of the West
 The power of „Sovereign Wealth‟
 A multi –polar world
 Vibrancy of emerging markets
 Managing multiple business models
“Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.”
(Mao Tse-Tung)

41. 2. GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY
 Every company a global company
 Your customer is „Tweeting‟
 Imagine the power of 4 billion minds
 Everything – not just everyone – is connected
 Expect a bumpy ride
“All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.”
(Henry Reed)

42. 3. PLANETARY STEWARDSHIP
 Interplay of 3 powerful forces
- growing demand
- constrained supply
- increased regulation
 Commodity prices will rise – and fall!
 Planning for different outcomes
 Resource productivity ˃ labour
productivity
 Prepare for regulatory change
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.”
(Native American Proverb)

43. 4. THE PRODUCTIVITY IMPERATIVE
 Emerging Markets vs. Developed Nations
 “Do it smarter” Rewards
 Maximise Returns from „Thinkers‟
 Reinvention of „Work‟
 Turning Free Goods into Gold
“Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is
either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)

44. Give the people control and we will use it
Your worst customer is your best friend
Do what you do best – and link to the rest
Join a network. Be a platform. Think distributed
If you‟re not searchable you won‟t be found
Life is public – so is business
Your customers are your ad agency
Small is the new big. The mass market is dead
Middlemen are doomed. Free is a business model
There is an inverse relationship between control and trust
Trust the people. Listen. Be honest. Be transparent
Collaborate. Life is live. Answers are instantaneous
Encourage, enable and protect innovation.
Simplify, Simplify
DON‟T BE EVIL!

45. 5. THE MARKET STATE
 Larger role for the state – not smaller
- Mitigate negative impacts of globalisation
- Regulation of financial architecture
- Multi- lateral consensus required
 Public Private Partnership – Beyond Procurement
 Selecting the Right Partners
 Companies Working Across Boundaries
 Vested Interests – Mutual Recognition
“For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)

46. MICRO-FORCES (EMPIRICAL)
TEN CORPORATE IMPERATIVES
1. Thinking creatively, strategically and systematically
2. Increasing „interdisciplinarity‟ and „intergenerationality‟
3. Fostering trust, responsibility and reputation
4. Exploring convergent technologies and divergent ideas
5. Mainstreaming the „Green Revolution‟
6. Deconstructing demographic destines
7. Managing knowledge and leading talent
8. Moving from an energy economy to an information economy
9. Engaging communities and behaving civically
10. Promoting authentic leadership in a futures orientated organisation
“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most
wickedest of things for the greatest good for everyone” (John Maynard Keynes)

47. TEN TOP BUSINESS ATTRIBUTES
1. Trustworthiness
2. Brand Integrity
3. Social Responsibility
4. Diversity
5. Foresight
6. Vision
7. Bravery
8. Agility
9. Adaptability
10. Informed Intuition
“Know yourself – be yourself – show yourself” (John Ratcliffe)

48. ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES
1. How to counter social/spatial segregation/polarisation?
How to ensure social and functional mixity?
2. How to foster social inclusion and economic integration of
disadvantaged groups, especially migrants?
3. How to ensure economic transitions? (entrepreneurial
environment; local & social economy; knowledge/green
economy; a viable manufacturing sector)?
4. How to manage and adapt to demographic changes (e.g.
ageing/age imbalances; shrinking/ growing; in/out
migration)?
5. How to maintain and attract a broad range of
skills/competencies? How to stimulate job creation and
availability?

49. ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES
6. How to achieve a sustainable mobility (pedestrian, bike,
clean urban transport, car, new transport modes,
accessibility)?
7. How to achieve greater energy efficiency and manage the
transition towards a carbon-neutral city?
8. How to manage natural resources (water, waste, air, soil
and land)?
9. How to ensure territorial cohesion and coherence? How
to manage relationships between cities and their
surroundings (hinterland; urban/peri-urban;
metropolises)?
10. How to foster cities' attractiveness (e.g., education,
culture, sports, creativity and cultural/industrial heritage;
safety and security; public spaces and public services)
11. How to ensure financial sustainability?

50. TEN TRAVEL AND TOURISM CHALLENGES
1. Taking Responsibility
2. Evolving Destinations
3. Promoting Slow and Geo-Tourism
4. Travelling With a Purpose
5. Going Overland
6. Catering for the Burgeoning Middle-Classes
7. Satisfying the “Digital Natives”
8. Tackling the Technological Transformations
9. Attending the Lure of Eastern Promise
10. Ensuring Safety, Security and Sustainability

51. BUILT ENVIRONMENT FORESIGHT 2030
PROPOSITUM:
FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
 How Will We Think?
 Will We Behave Differently?
 What About Real Estate?
 Who Will Be Involved?
 What Really Lies Ahead?
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know
and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know
and understand.”
(Albert Einstein)

52. PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
How Will We Think?
 Strategically
 Systematically
 Creatively
 Reflectively
 Intergenerationally
“Science investigates religion interprets. Science gives man knowledge which is
power religion gives man wisdom which is control.” (Martin Luther King, Jr.)

53. PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
Will We Behave Differently?
 With Values
 With Responsibility
 With Cross-Disciplinarity
 With Discretion
 With Foresight
“These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress without compassion, wealth
without work, learning without silence, religion without fearlessness and worship without awareness.”
(Anthony de Mello)

54. PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
What About Real Estate?
 Qualitative not Quantitative
 Infrastructure and Civics
 A Service Industry
 A Two-Tier Sustainable
Market
 Location and Mobility
“Just because everything is different doesn't mean anything has changed.”
(Irene Peter)

55. PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
Who Will Be Involved?
 The Professions
 Public Private Partnerships
 Regulators
 Communities
 Leaders
“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by
the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

56. PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS
What Really Lies Ahead?
 Managing the Energy Deficit
 Defusing the Demographic
Time-Bomb
 Exploiting Converging Technologies
 Mainstreaming Green Development
 Profiting from a Responsible and
Sustainable Future
“We have it in our power to begin the world over again” (Thomas Paine)

57. TEN REAL ESTATE CHALLENGES
1. Capturing the Infrastructure Opportunity
2. Participating in Public Private Partnership
3. Changing Locations
4. Appreciating Market Divergence
5. Exploring Second and Third Tier Cities
6. Switching to Service and Function
7. Boom in Health, Education & Leisure
8. Embrace New Building Technology
9. Emerging Markets May Be The Next Bubble
10. Energy is the Key – Risk Management the Imperative
“Imagine if capitalism collapsed as it did not allow prices to tell the ecological truth;
just as socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth”
(John Ratcliffe, 2008)

58. Built Environment Harmony
Enlightened Leadership
Strategic Foresight
“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength;
mastering yourself is true power. If you realize that you have enough, you are truly rich.”
(Tao Te Ching)

59. NEW LEADERSHIP?
“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.” (Warren G Bennis)

60. SOME THOUGHTS ON LEADERSHIP
 Create a democracy of ideas
 Amplify the organisations imagination
 Dynamically reallocate resources
 Aggregate collective wisdom
 Minimise the drag of old mental models
 Give everyone the chance to take part
“Governing a large country is like frying a small fish. You spoil it with too much poking.”
(Tao Te Ching)

61. “The wicked leader is he who the people
despise. The good leader is he who the
people revere. The great leader is he who
the people say, „We did it ourselves.‟”
( Lao Tzu )