This is the presentation and exercices that were used during a workshop for the first 2014 seminar of the Ashoka's Impact program in Switzerland, given for the third consecutive year. The work shop is about opportunity analysis for social entrepreneurs, integrated with Dalberg's Theory of Change. Rich picture, PESTEL analysis, Problem and objective trees, all around a Social Business Model canvas.

1. Opportunity analysis
and theory of change
- introduction -

2. Knowledge
Know-how
Motivation
Behavior
Market
(society)
The approach of the “traditional” entrepreneur

3. Knowledge
Know-how
Passion
Behavior
Vision
Society
(needs)

5. Operations oriented
for a social change
Resources
and infrastructure
Financial
products
Investments and
working capital
Social
impact
Societal
value
Inspired from: ESSEC Chaire entrepreneuriat socia
Social
enterprise

6. Corporate responsibility
Strategy
Business model
Gouvernance
Values
ISO 26000
Principles of action
Looking at the many faces of an organization
Vision
Relations
Mission

7. In a systemic approach, the faces
of the organization are a superposition of models
ValuesValues
Permanent model
«mission»
Relations model
«management»
Dynamic model
«vision»
Coherence axis
«the values»
And we can design
them with canvas !

8. How do we link all that to the TOC ?
Situation analysis

10. Claude Michaud
Opportunity
or situation
analysis
claude.michaud@socialbusinessmodels.ch
Fribourg May 2014

11. Where?
With whom?
Why?
Verifiable ?
Who?
With what? What?
By what ?
Our
values
But how to begin an opportunity analysis?

13. Where?
So, lets start with the context !

14. Rich picture of the context The rules are
very simple!
Where?

15. PESTEL: in which context, which domain,
who influences, with how much intensity?

16. Don’t forget:
Your stakeholders also influences your organization!
Public
sector
Politics
Funders
Suppliers
Concurrents
Society
Customers
Direct
benefi-
ciaries Medias
Press
Social
networks
Committee
Members
Volunteers
Direction
Staff
Partners
Prescribers
Opinion
makers
Our
values

17. Its your turn!
• Group in pairs of organizations
• Take 10 minutes to each design your rich picture and 5
minutes to check some relevant points in the PESTEL
factors examples sheet
• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other
organization
• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties

18. Why and for whom?
Short term
outputs
Specific
outcomes
Global
impacts
• “In the customer shoes”
• Problem tree
• Goals/objectives tree
Tools
Society
Directs & indirect
customers
Beneficiaries
Consequences
Causes
Central problem
Our
values

19. Putting yourself in the "customer shoes“
to understand the problem!
Thinks and feels
Sees
Speaks
Listens
Does
Has needs
BeingDoing

20. Why? – Problems tree
Consequences
Causes
Central problem
Our
values

21. Why – problems tree
• We start with a central problem
• We go down listing the causes:
– Asking why?… why?… why?
(like a small child)
• We go up, listing the consequences:
– Telling so what?… so what?… and so what?
(like a teenager)
The shea butter
production is low and
the quality is poor
Causes
Consequences

22. Problems tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production
is low and
the quality is poor
There are long
translating by foot
There are heat
and high hazards
(snake bites)
The nuts
transportation is
heavy
The operations
are essentially
manual
The operations
are done in a
painful context
There are bag
hygiene
procedures
The packaging is
improper
The rural exodus
is a fact
The quality is low
and inconstant
The operations
are slow
The shea nuts
picking is difficult
Causes
Central problem
There are few
local opportunities
The selling price
is low and
fluctuates
There are no
international
opportunities
Consequences

23. Problems tree example: shea butter production
Backfeed!
(vicious circle)

24. Why and for whom?
Society
Directs & indirect
customers
Beneficiaries
Our
values

26. Who: what are the target audiences?
Our
values
• Who are the direct beneficiaries?
• Who are the indirect beneficiaries?
• Who are the customers?
• How many are they
• What is the market size?

27. Why – transformation in objectives tree
• We modify the problem tree
transforming the negative sentences
into positive sentences (objectives)
• We go down, looking for drivers
(for this to happen, we need…)
• We go up doing the same
(if we reach this situation, it’s possible
that this happens…)
The shea butter
production increased
and the quality is high
Drivers
Impacts

28. Objectives tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production
is low and
the quality is poor
There are long
translating by foot
There are heat
and high hazards
(snake bites)
The nuts
transportation is
heavy
The operations
are essentially
manual
The operations
are done in a
painful context
There are bag
hygiene
procedures
The packaging is
improper
The rural exodus
is a fact
The quality is low
and inconstant
The operations
are slow
The shea nuts
picking is difficult
There are few
local opportunities
The selling price
is low and
fluctuates
There are no
international
opportunities
Translations
facilities exist
It’s less
dangerous
(snakes bites)
The nuts
transportation is
easy
The operations
are partially
mechanized
The operations
are done in a
better context
The hygiene
procedures are
respected
The packaging is
adequate
Big goal
There are better
living conditions
The quality is
good and
standardized
The operations
are much more
faster
The shea nuts
picking is easier
Immediate results
The shea butter production
increased and the quality is
high
Short term outputs
The local market
is interested
The selling price
is correct
and is stable
Potential
international
opportunities exist
Long term outcomes

29. Its your turn!
• Group in pairs of organizations
• Take around 15 + 10 minutes to each create the
problem tree for which your organization exists
and then transform it into an objectives tree
• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the
other organization
• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties

30. What’s next? – Intervention strategy

31. Break time !

32. The link between TOC and the objective tree

33. Context: Where is our organization is working?
Issue: What is the key issue we are facing?
Domain: In what sector/domain do we work?
Big Goal
Short term
outputs
Long-term
outcomes
What do we achieve in the short-term through the activities, products and services we produce?
Outputs are largely within our organization’s control
What are the long term outcomes, that will help us reach our big goal?
These are indirectly caused by our work, not completely within our control.
What do we want the world to look like? What is the key goal we are trying to achieve?
Values and principles: What are the values and principles that will guide my activities?
Situation
analysis
TheoryofChangeCore
values

35. Verifiable – How to measure progress through KPI’s
Our
values
Short term
outputs
Long term
outcomes
Big goal

38. Thanks for your attention
www.socialbusinessmodels.ch
www.dalberg.com