"This paper represents the preliminary result from an ongoing research project. The purpose of the project is to map the geographical and temporal development of the 1918 flu in at a local community. In this case, the Danish provincial marked town Holbæk. By including a variety of concurrent records, the patterns of infection will be analyzed from a socioeconomic perspective by using different kinds of graph theory and methods. For example, social networks analy-sis (SNA). The overall aim of the project is to contribute to our understanding of the preconditions for the route of pandemics and annually epidemics. In particular, provide results and methods that can be further developed and included in real time surveillance (the loop) and evaluations on wherever a seasonal epidemic has the potential to go pandemic. "

1. Lesson Learned from a forgotten Pandemic
Søren K. Poder, Aarhus City Archives

3. • 5-15% of the entire population in the developed
world are affected by respiratory tract
infections.
• Between three and five million are severe cases
of illness, usually severe pneumonia
• 250.000 and 500.000 cases are lethal.
• In industrialized countries, most deaths
currently are associated with influenza among
the elderly over 65 years of age.
• In the USA alone it is estimated that the cost of
seasonal influenza epidemics recent to the
economy at US$ 71-167 billion per year.
• But what would happen in case of a world wide
pandemic?

6. • Born in Vordingborg, Jan. 27. 1887
• Married and lived in Horsens
• Died in Odense 1918
Aurelia Marie Claudia Nielsen
† 7. november 1918
Connected

9. 0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Jan Feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec
INCIDENS
number Infected pr district, 1918 - 1919 København By
Københavns A, By
Roskilde By
Frederiksborg By
Holbæk By
Sorø By
Præstø By
Lolland-Falster By
Svendborg By
Odense By
Assens By
Vejle By
Skanderborg By
Aarhus By
Randers By
Aalborg By
Hjørring By
Thisted By
Viborg By
Ringkøbing By
Ribe By
Bornholm By
Total

10. “Anti Spanish”
“Anti Spanish” (remedy against Spanish influenza)
As a remedy, there is curative or otherwise
effective against disease

11. Acc. incidents, Roskilde county
%

12. The Case: Holbæk 1918

13. -5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1801 1834 1840 1845 1855 1860 1870 1880 1890 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1925 1930 1935 1940
POPULATION
Increase in population, Holbæk 1801 - 1940
Population
Fluctuation (%)
Procent

14. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec
FATALITY
Total number of Flu lncidens and total number of Death, Holbæk 1918
Døde Insidens

15. Data – a lot it
Medical Incident Rapports, 1917 - 1919
Death certificate, 1917 - 1919
Death certificate 1917 - 1919
National Census 1916
Church records, 1910 - 1920

16. • Name : Gudrun Fransen Jensine Hansen
• Not Married
• Born: 25 Jan. 1900 in Holbæk
• Occupation: Servant
• Address: Holbæk Rolighedsvej 7
• Date of death: 5. Nov. 1918 age: 18
• Place of the death: Holbæk Rolighedsvej 7
• Cause of Death: Infuenza pneumonia
• disease last for: 4 days

17. Census, 1916

18. Parish Register

19. Cadastral Map

20. • Name
• Enrollment number
• Date of birth
• Father's name
(mother's name if the person was born out of wedlock)
• Place of birth and residence
• Height
• Any physical disabilities
• How, when and where theconscription was completed.
• Any exemption or enlistment
• the year of death if the conscripts died before
enrollment in military service
• Military Penalty (if any)

21. • www.denspanskesyge.dk
• Danish Family Search (AU)
• Basecrowd.dk
• Danish Demographic Database
Daren C. Brabham

22. Thank you