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Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Inequality and Employment Progression, Abi Adams-Prassl

  1. 1. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality in the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Real-Time Survey Evidence Abi Adams-Prassl Teodora Boneva Marta Golin Christopher Rauh Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  2. 2. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Introduction I In this talk, I will draw on the best available evidence to highlight three themes to the current crisis: I Ability to work from home I Role of work arrangement I Inequalities in the impact by gender and ethnicity I However, not simply the nature of the shock but also the policy response that crucial to understand cross-country differences I I will end with some thoughts for what the pandemic means for future labour market inequalities Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  3. 3. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Filling in the Gaps I UKRI Funded Project with Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh: rapid response online surveys on workers in UK, US, Germany I Responses are geographically representative according to region (quota-based sampling) I To be eligible to complete the survey, individuals must have reported being over 18, resident in the country of focus, and in paid work in the last year I Data collection took place in the UK on: I Wave 1: 25th March (N = 3, 974) I Wave 2: 9-14th April (N = 4, 931) I Wave 3: 20-21 May (N = 3, 992) I Wave 4: April 2021 (N = 4, 100) Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  4. 4. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Filling in the Gaps I UKRI Funded Project with Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh: rapid response online surveys on workers in UK, US, Germany I Responses are geographically representative according to region (quota-based sampling) I To be eligible to complete the survey, individuals must have reported being over 18, resident in the country of focus, and in paid work in the last year I Data collection took place in the UK on: I Wave 1: 25th March (N = 3, 974) I Wave 2: 9-14th April (N = 4, 931) I Wave 3: 20-21 May (N = 3, 992) I Wave 4: April 2021 (N = 4, 100) Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  5. 5. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Disruption to Traditional Data Sources Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  6. 6. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Research Response Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  7. 7. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Research Response Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  8. 8. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Research Response Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  9. 9. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Nature of the Shock Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  10. 10. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Ability to Work From Home Is a Big Determinant of Whether Out of Work 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Share of workers that lost job due to due Corona 1 s t 2 n d 3 r d 4 t h 5 t h Work from home - Quintiles US 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Share of workers that lost job due to due Corona 1 s t 2 n d 3 r d 4 t h 5 t h Work from home - Quintiles UK Wave 1 Wave 2 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  11. 11. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Working From Home is Regressive 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Share of tasks that can be done from home L e s s t h a n $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 1 9 , 0 0 0 $ 2 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 2 9 , 0 0 0 $ 3 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 3 9 , 0 0 0 $ 4 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 4 9 , 0 0 0 $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 5 9 , 0 0 0 $ 6 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 6 9 , 0 0 0 $ 7 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 7 9 , 0 0 0 $ 8 0 , 0 0 0 - $ 8 9 , 0 0 0 $ 9 0 , 0 0 0 + US 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Share of tasks that can be done from home L e s s t h a n £ 1 0 , 0 0 0 £ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 1 9 , 0 0 0 £ 2 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 2 9 , 0 0 0 £ 3 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 3 9 , 0 0 0 £ 4 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 4 9 , 0 0 0 £ 5 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 5 9 , 0 0 0 £ 6 0 , 0 0 0 - £ 6 9 , 0 0 0 £ 7 0 , 0 0 0 + UK Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  12. 12. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! This Has Resulted in Big Differences in Job Loss Across Occupations Slope -.44, R-squared .69 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Share that lost job due to Coronavirus 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Average share of tasks possible to do at home US - Wave 2 Slope -.32, R-squared .54 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Share that lost job due to Coronavirus 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Average share of tasks possible to do at home UK - Wave 2 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  13. 13. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Comparison between Job Keepers and Losers 0 .2 .4 .6 0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100 Share of tasks possible from home Food Preparation and Serving 0 .05 .1 .15 0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100 Share of tasks possible from home Computer and Mathematical 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100 Share of tasks possible from home Architecture and Engineering 0 .1 .2 .3 0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100 Share of tasks possible from home Office and Administrative Support Kept job Lost job Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  14. 14. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! However, WFH Is Not Whole Story 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Job lost due to due Corona US - Early April 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Job lost due to due Corona UK - Early April Temporary Permanent Not Salaried Salaried Vary Hours Fixed Hours Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  15. 15. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Work Arrangements Also Affect Access to Other Benefits Men Women 35years + < 35years Permanent Temporary Fixed Varied Above av. WFH Below av. WFH 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  16. 16. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Work Arrangements Also Affect Access to Other Benefits Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  17. 17. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Gender I Financial crisis hit male-dominated industries (manufacturing, construction) more severely I Containment measures have hit the service sector in which women tend to be over-represented I We find that women are more likely to have lost their job and been furloughed even when we control for differences in the types of jobs that men and women do Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  18. 18. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Gender Alon et al (2020) Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  19. 19. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Gender: Childcare 0 1 2 3 4 Hours Childcare Home schooling Men Women US 0 1 2 3 4 Hours Childcare Home schooling Men Women UK Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  20. 20. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Gender: Initiate STW Men Women Fathers Mothers Childless men Childless women 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  21. 21. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Gender: Mental Health -0.083 -0.123 -0.013 Full Sample Women Men -0.200 -0.150 -0.100 -0.050 0.000 0.050 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  22. 22. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Inequality by Race Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  23. 23. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Policy Through the Pandemic Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  24. 24. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Why STW? I STW schemes subsidize labour hoarding with the aim of keeping workers and firms together during temporary shocks I Firm-specific human capital & hiring costs I Greater flexibility to allow employment on a part-time basis I Potentially lower administration burden I Recall not credible I To consider: I Timing I Prevent efficient re-allocation of resources? I Moral hazard I Inequalities in application Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  25. 25. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Key Results I Workers without additional paid sick leave 13 p.p. less likely to want to return to work from furlough I Furloughed workers 15 p.p. higher likelihood of losing job after controlling for job characteristics I Furloughed workers who can do a larger share of their tasks from home are significantly more pessimistic about future employment I Social-distancing restrictions not the only reason for a low-productivity match? Stronger role for firm or demand factors I Much more likely to be actively searching for a new job Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  26. 26. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Implications for Policy Design I Part-time work should be allowed from the start I Lower output losses I Encourage investment in WFH I Less inequity between complying & non-complying firms I Require flexibility across different sectors & sensitivity to disruption in schools I Paid sick leave requires more attention I Encourage the healthy to expose themselves & go back to wortk I Stop the sick from going to work I Incentives for workplace testing Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  27. 27. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Lives-Livelihood Frontier Kaplan, Moll & Violante (2020) Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  28. 28. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Lives-Livelihood Frontier Fetzer (2021) Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  29. 29. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Thoughts on the Future Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  30. 30. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Working from Home Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  31. 31. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Working from Home & Productivity Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  32. 32. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Working from Home & Spatial Concerns Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  33. 33. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Automation Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  34. 34. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Occupational Mobility Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  35. 35. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Tension in Social Security Model Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  36. 36. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Tension in Social Security Model “I must be honest and point out that in devising this scheme–in response to many calls for support– it is now much harder to justify the inconsistent contributions between people of different employment statuses. If we all want to benefit equally from state support, we must all pay in equally in future.” UK Chancellor, March 2020 Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture
  37. 37. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening! Thank You for Listening! Abi Adams-Prassl OECD Lecture

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Webinar Series on COVID-19 and Inequality, 11 May 2021, More information at: https://www.oecd.org/wise/events/covid-and-inequality-webinars.htm

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