Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
Unlocking the Potential: Deep dive into ocean of Ceramic Magnets.pptx
Coleen Vogel - An inconvenient truth - the Hell Niño in south africa
1. An inconvenient truth!
The Hell Niño in South Africa
Coleen Vogel
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand
2.
3. Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050
(top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are
shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
4. Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation)
scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The
maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
8. Science – society interactions:
The case of South Africa
• Long and extensive science on climate change
and climate variability
• Strong policy focus (dating back to early
1900s)
• Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s)
that had the potential to fundamentally shift
‘science imaginaries’ on drought.
9. Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa
(after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)
10. Science – society interactions
National Consultative Forum on Drought
• Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s
• ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change
and climate stress
• CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South
Africa) national-level process influenced by strong
activists shaping the Drought Forum
• Evolution:
• Drought forum – rural development forum –
reconstruction and development action.
11.
12. Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum
(Source: Various)
13. Fast forward to 2014-2016
1. Knowledge about climate change science and
climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge).
2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles
of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic
society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and
planning still located in silos of action
3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix
1 of paper).
14. Example of current response
(extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov.
2015).
17. Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes
(courtesy J. Colvin)
Multiple stakeholders, actors
and stake/actor holdings
Controversy of
knowledge claims
Complexity of
ecological – societal
relationships
Uncertainty about current
state and predictions
Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:
18. “The real voyage of discovery
consists not in seeking new
landscapes, but in having new
eyes” Marcel Proust
19. Acknowledgements
• Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists
• Various inputs local scientists, activists and
government actors from the past and present!
• Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for
graphics and figures.
Editor's Notes
Fig 1.8.2. Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
Fig 1.9.1 Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation) scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR