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An inconvenient truth!
The Hell Niño in South Africa
Coleen Vogel
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand
Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050
(top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are
shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation)
scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The
maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
© CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za
Annual change in extreme rainfall events over
southern Africa (2070-2100 vs 1975-2005)
• Units: change
in the annual
number of events
per grid box
• Extreme
rainfall events
are projected to
increase over
most of southern
Africa
• More intense
thunderstorms
projected to
occur over
eastern SA
Engelbrecht et
Science – society interactions:
The case of South Africa
• Long and extensive science on climate change
and climate variability
• Strong policy focus (dating back to early
1900s)
• Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s)
that had the potential to fundamentally shift
‘science imaginaries’ on drought.
Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa
(after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)
Science – society interactions
National Consultative Forum on Drought
• Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s
• ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change
and climate stress
• CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South
Africa) national-level process influenced by strong
activists shaping the Drought Forum
• Evolution:
• Drought forum – rural development forum –
reconstruction and development action.
Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum
(Source: Various)
Fast forward to 2014-2016
1. Knowledge about climate change science and
climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge).
2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles
of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic
society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and
planning still located in silos of action
3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix
1 of paper).
Example of current response
(extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov.
2015).
Policy &
decision
-making
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decision-
making
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decision
-making
Climate
Change
research
After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000
Transdisciplinary Co-design & Co-production Model
(After: Future Earth and Cornell et al.,
2013)
Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes
(courtesy J. Colvin)
Multiple stakeholders, actors
and stake/actor holdings
Controversy of
knowledge claims
Complexity of
ecological – societal
relationships
Uncertainty about current
state and predictions
Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:
“The real voyage of discovery
consists not in seeking new
landscapes, but in having new
eyes” Marcel Proust
Acknowledgements
• Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists
• Various inputs local scientists, activists and
government actors from the past and present!
• Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for
graphics and figures.

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Coleen Vogel - An inconvenient truth - the Hell Niño in south africa

  • 1. An inconvenient truth! The Hell Niño in South Africa Coleen Vogel Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute University of the Witwatersrand
  • 2.
  • 3. Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
  • 4. Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation) scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
  • 5. © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Annual change in extreme rainfall events over southern Africa (2070-2100 vs 1975-2005) • Units: change in the annual number of events per grid box • Extreme rainfall events are projected to increase over most of southern Africa • More intense thunderstorms projected to occur over eastern SA Engelbrecht et
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Science – society interactions: The case of South Africa • Long and extensive science on climate change and climate variability • Strong policy focus (dating back to early 1900s) • Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s) that had the potential to fundamentally shift ‘science imaginaries’ on drought.
  • 9. Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa (after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)
  • 10. Science – society interactions National Consultative Forum on Drought • Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s • ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change and climate stress • CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South Africa) national-level process influenced by strong activists shaping the Drought Forum • Evolution: • Drought forum – rural development forum – reconstruction and development action.
  • 11.
  • 12. Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum (Source: Various)
  • 13. Fast forward to 2014-2016 1. Knowledge about climate change science and climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge). 2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and planning still located in silos of action 3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix 1 of paper).
  • 14. Example of current response (extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov. 2015).
  • 15. Policy & decision -making Climate Change research Policy & decision- making Climate Change research Policy & decision -making Climate Change research After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000
  • 16. Transdisciplinary Co-design & Co-production Model (After: Future Earth and Cornell et al., 2013)
  • 17. Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes (courtesy J. Colvin) Multiple stakeholders, actors and stake/actor holdings Controversy of knowledge claims Complexity of ecological – societal relationships Uncertainty about current state and predictions Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:
  • 18. “The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes” Marcel Proust
  • 19. Acknowledgements • Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists • Various inputs local scientists, activists and government actors from the past and present! • Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for graphics and figures.

Editor's Notes

  1. Fig 1.8.2. Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
  2. Fig 1.9.1 Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation) scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
  3. 5