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The drivers of productivity: The role of organisational change and other firm-level factors, Catherine Mann

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Presentation by Catherine Mann, "The drivers of productivity: The role of organisational change and other firm-level factors"

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The drivers of productivity: The role of organisational change and other firm-level factors, Catherine Mann

  1. 1. Session 5: "The drivers of productivity: The role of organisational change and other firm-level factors” Catherine L. Mann Brandeis University, OECD Chief Economist (designate) 1
  2. 2. Weave a narrative • Rising IT intensity and productivity overall – But overall slowdown from 1990s to post-crisis • IT-intensity and employment dynamics – Tighter matching of employment to demand Implications for employment and wages 2 IT Intensity, Productivity, Employment
  3. 3. On the Productivity Slowdown • 90s to 20s to pre/post-crisis: –Increase in productivity overall –Leading sectors: lead less –Lagging sectors: many lag more –Middle sectors: broader group 3 IT Intensity and Productivity
  4. 4. On cyclical labor market dynamics • Over the 20s boom and bust: –Greater pro-cyclicality of IT intensive firms –Particularly mfg, but also services –Small IT-intensive services • greatest job growth 4 IT Intensity and Employment
  5. 5. • Real IT-intensity – Hardware, software, IT services –KLEMS, BEA – BLS prices • Employment and firm size – Statistics of US Business Dynamics • GDP/FTE – BEA 5 Data Construction
  6. 6. 6 IT-intensity Contribution to Labor Productivity: 1990s Mann, Accelerating the Globalization of America: The Role for Information Technology, 2006
  7. 7. -0.70% -0.50% -0.30% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70% (3.00) (2.00) (1.00) - 1.00 2.00 3.00 Average Contribution to real GDP per FTE Growth (2001-2007) IT Intensity of Industry (Log of IT/FTE Rank 2001-2007)(2)(3) Top-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE> .20 Bottom-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE<.20 (Size of bubble indicates the industries average share of GDP) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting Information Retail Trade Insurance carriers and related activities Utilities Construction Mining Wholesale Accomodations and Food Services Other Services Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments Rental and Leasing services Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Sources: Data--Bureau of Economic Analysis, Methodology--Digital Economy 2002/2003, Visualization-- Mann, 2006; Stephanie Postles, Economic and Strategic Research, FannieMae, Sept 2014. (1) per FTE per FTE IT-intensity Contribution to Labor Productivity: 2000s to boom
  8. 8. -0.70% -0.50% -0.30% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70% (3.00) (2.00) (1.00) - 1.00 2.00 3.00 Average Contribution to real GDP per FTE Growth (2008-2012) IT Intensity of Industry (Log of IT/FTE Rank 2008-2012)(2)(3) Top-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE> .17 Bottom-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE<.17 (Size of bubble indicates the industries average share of GDP) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting Information Retail Trade Insurance carriers and related activities Construction Mining Wholesale Accomodations and Food Services Other Services Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments Administrative and Waste Mgmt Sources: Data--Bureau of Economic Analysis, Methodology--Digital Economy 2002/2003, Visualization--Mann, 2006; Stephanie Postles, Economic and Strategic Research, FannieMae, Sept 2014. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (1) per FTE per FTE IT-intensity Contribution to Labor Productivity: 2000s bust
  9. 9. Real IT-Intensity 2002 vs. 2010 all using sectors all firm sizes 9
  10. 10. 10 Real IT-Intensity 2002 vs 2010 below average-using sectors
  11. 11. 11 Real IT-Intensity Over Time: above average using sectors
  12. 12. IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics IT-intensive net growth more volatile esp. mfg 12
  13. 13. IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics small (1-99) IT intensive services greatest net growth 13
  14. 14. IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics greatest growth in small IT producers 14
  15. 15. On the slowdown in productivity •Productivity Convergence –but not in a ‘good’ way –leaders stop leading –but some laggards catch-up •Why sectoral experience differ? –Size, management, complementarity 15 IT Intensity and Productivity Implications
  16. 16. On cyclical labor market dynamics Implications: •Tighter employment management to business cycle demand •Bifurcate labor market into high/low employment volatility => wages? 16 IT Intensity and Employment Implications

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