2017 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through May 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Inquiries
Demographics
Job Postings
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation
System
§ Program profiles
§ Program development
§ City targeting
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Acquisition analysis
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks

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Agenda
1. Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.
§ GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present.
§ We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
In 2017, inquiries have fallen by an average of 8% year-over-year.
-8%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
In May, inquiry volumes declined 3%.
-3%
YoY

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External (or PPL) inquiries continued to plummet.
§ Last year they fell an average of 10% year over year.
§ May inquiries also dropped 10% year-over-year.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
National External Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017
-10%
YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries continued to decline in May.
§ In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
National Branded Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017
-7%
YoY

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80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates are already well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q1 2017 beat last year by 8% and Q1 inquiries will continue to convert.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+8%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For February inquiries, total conversions declined 9% year-over-year.
§ It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.
§ Nonetheless, February conversions will likely remain lower year-over-year.
§ March conversions have already surpassed last March’s volume.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2015 2016 2017
-9% YoY
Immature Months1

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2015 $40.71 $41.40 $41.40 $41.41 $41.07 $40.73 $42.63 $42.73 $43.24 $43.30 $43.13 $43.00
2016 $43.62 $43.93 $42.82 $43.30 $40.56 $43.18 $42.72 $42.93 $43.49 $43.34 $43.46 $44.14
2017 $44.25 $44.22 $44.39 $44.21 $44.14 $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $44.
§ In May, the average price increased 9% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+9%

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Medical Assistant.
Business Administration
Administrative Assistant
Medical Office Assistant
Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping.
Medical Insurance Specialist
Health Care Administration
Registered Nursing
Criminal Justice
Computer and Information Sciences
Inquiry Budgets for the 10 Largest Programs
(January to May, 2017 )
§ Computer and Information sciences has the smallest budget.
Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting has the highest spend for affiliate leads.
$ in Thousands

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
-100%-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Medical Office Assistant
Medical Insurance Specialist
Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping.
Medical Assistant
Health Care Administration
Administrative Assistant
Criminal Justice
Business Administration
Registered Nursing
Computer and Information Sciences
Inquiry Budget Trends for the 10 Largest Programs
Jan through May 2017 Year-Over Year Trend
§ Only Medical Office Assistant and Medical Insurance Specialist spending increased.
The program with the largest budget, Medical Assistant, declined 12% in 2017 YoY.
% Change YoY

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.
+0.5%

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Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 10% in May.
§ Inquiries for online programs have now increased in ten of the last eleven months.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
+10%
YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 53% in February.
§ This is the seventh consecutive increase in conversions.
§ The immature months have already passed last year’s volumes.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion).
Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+53%
YoY
Immature Months1

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.
§ 2016 fell short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2015 2016
-15%

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Inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.
§ In April, inquiries for on-campus programs plunged 18% year-over-year.
§ May inquiries for on-campus higher education programs performed much better, only dropping 5%.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
-5% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 21% year-over-year in February.
§ January conversions improved 4% this month, but still fell short year-over-year.
§ The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-21% YOY
Immature Months1

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing awards.
§ Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (17%).
§ The more advanced degrees declined.
-15%
-15%
-11%
0%
17%
90%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
March through May YoY

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Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries.
§ Two different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
-84%
-56%
-38%
-36%
-31%
-23%
-19%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-6%
0%
11%
56%
127%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Display: Branded
Referral: Branded
PPL: External
Email: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Interactive: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
All Other Internal: Branded
Event: Branded
PPC: Branded
Affiliate: External
Website: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(March through May YoY)
Branded
External

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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The Big 5 Programs: May Growth
Inquiries for the Big Five Programs shrank again.
§ Medical Assisting, which was the best performer last month, dropped 21%.
§ Registered Nursing was down 19%
§ Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 27%.
§ The two business programs continued to drop, both down more than 38%.
-19%
-21%
-27%
-38%
-42%-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Business Admin:
Associate's -
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in May 2017 Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change

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243%
104%
56%
42% 41%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Medical Insurance
Coding
Cosmetology Construction
Management
Electrician. Welding Tech
The Fast 5 Programs
Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 40%.
§ At 243%, Medical Insurance Coding grew the fastest in May.
§ Second on the list, Cosmetology grew nearly 104%.
§ Medical Insurance Coding was the only program that was in last month’s top 5 list.
1. Only includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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-88%
-82%
-72%
-66%
-47%
-100%
-50%
0%
Computer and
Information Sciences
Electrical Engineering
Tech
Cyber Security Curriculum and
Instruction
Counseling Psychology
The Slow 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth
All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 47%.
§ Computer and Information Sciences declined 88% YoY.
§ Second on the list, Electrical Engineering Tech declined 82%.
1. Limited to the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only three of The Big 5 fell double digits year-over-year.
§ Inquiries for New York grew 5% in May.
§ Atlanta was flat year-over-year.
-17%
-34%
1%
-28%
-15%-16%
-12% -12%
0%
5%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA New York, NY
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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Job Postings: Demand Map
Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Public Relations
MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4,430 16.84% 2.5 Very High
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1,778 6.76% 3.0 Very High
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 1,609 6.12% 3.6 Very High
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,503 5.71% 1.3 High
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 923 3.51% 1.1 Average
Total (specified) 26,309
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. June 1, 2016-May 31,2017
SOCs: Public Relations Specialists, Public Relations and Fundraising Managers, Advertising and Promotions Managers were used in this analysis. Source: Employer Sites

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Job Postings: Demand Map
Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Public Relations
MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4,430 16.84% 2.5 Very High
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1,778 6.76% 3.0 Very High
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 1,609 6.12% 3.6 Very High
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,503 5.71% 1.3 High
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 923 3.51% 1.1 Average
Total (specified) 26,309

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Job Postings: Annual Job Counts
Demand for PR-related personnel in the New York Metro Area appears to rebounding.
4,584 4,696
5,596
3,678
4,029
2,311
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Job
Postings
Job Postings
Public Relations – New York MSA

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Job Postings: Job Titles
Communications Manager is the most common job title in PR.
Job Titles (Top 10) in NY MSA Count % to Total
Communications Manager 404 9.12%
Director of Communications 238 5.37%
Public Relations Manager 158 3.57%
Communications Specialist 155 3.50%
Communications Associate 128 2.89%
Media Planner 127 2.87%
Communications Coordinator 103 2.33%
Director of Development 78 1.76%
Director of Public Relations 76 1.72%
Major Gifts Officer 69 1.56%
Total 1,351

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Job Postings: Sample Salary
The majority of listed salaries are greater than $50,000.
20
27
67
68
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution in NY MSA (Advertised)
§ 96% of the job postings did not have any salary information.
§ The mean real-time salary is $68,682.

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Job Postings: Skill Clusters
Only four of the most frequently skills are specific to Public Relations.
§ PR requires strong general business skills, including MS Office, budgeting, strategy, and writing.
15%
15%
16%
17%
17%
25%
28%
32%
37%
40%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Marketing and Public Relations: Marketing Management
Media and Writing: Writing
Marketing and Public Relations: Corporate Communications
Business: People Management
Business: Business Strategy
Business: Project Management
Finance: Budget Management
Marketing and Public Relations: Social Media
Marketing and Public Relations: Public Relations
Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity
Tools
Most Frequently Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings
Other
Marketing/PR

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Job Postings: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job posting that specify education, 90% cite a bachelor’s degree.
§ Almost 90% of the specified job postings advertised a Bachelor’s degree.
3%
2%
90%
4%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)

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Job Postings: Employers
JP Morgan Chase Company is the largest employer for this field in the NY MSA.
76
69
45
45
42
40
38
37
36
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
JP Morgan Chase Company
Employer 2
Prudential
Reliefweb
Pfizer
Verizon Communications Incorporated
CBS Broadcasting
CUNY
NBC
Accenture
Employers by Volume in Job Postings (in NY MSA)
§ The largest employer accounts for 1.8% of the job postings.

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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Google Search: Top States for Searches per Capita
D.C. has the most searches per capita for Public Relations.
8.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
District of Columbia
New York
Rhode Island
Hawaii
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Georgia
Connecticut
California
Virginia
States by Searches per Capita
Program: Public Relations
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017.

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Google Search: Most and Least Expensive States for Public Relations
On a Cost per Click basis, Nevada is the most expensive – Arkansas is the least expensive.
$9.75
$8.34
$6.36
$6.28
$5.66
$0.42
$0.38
$0.14
$0.06
$0.02
$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Florida
Texas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Louisiana
Utah
Arkansas
Public Relations
States by Cost Per Click
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017, State with more than 1,000 searches.

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Google Search: Top States for Searches per Capita
The 10 fastest growing states for public relation searches are all growing over 234%.
290%
288%
261%
261%
255%
249%
244%
235%
235%
234%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Washington
California
New York
Texas
Virginia
Oregon
Colorado
Illinois
Ohio
Florida
Public Relations
Year-over-Year Search Growth
By State
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017.
§ Washington State grew the fastest.

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Agenda
1. National
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings
3. Google Search
4. Summary

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Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ Overall inquiry volumes continue to decline 8%
§ External inquiries dropped 10%, and Branded inquiries also dropped 7%.
§ But, some trends are strongly diverging by segment
─ Inquiries for on-campus programs fell 5%, while inquires for online grew 10%.
─ Conversions on-campus fell 21%, but online programs are up 53%
§ Medical Coding was the fastest-growing program.
§ Employment related to Public Relations has recently grown.
─ Public Relations was also one of the fastest-growing programs in terms of Google Search
Volumes.
─ It also appears to be a strong profession, with many advertised salaries over $50,000

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Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

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Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
July Webcast
(June Results)
Thursday, July 20th at 2:00 PM EDT

2017 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2017 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education