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ECONOMICS AND POLICY ADVICE
A Farewell Seminar for Mr. Antti Suvanto
Christian KASTROP
Director of the Policy Studies Branch
Economics Department, OECD, Paris
Helsinki, Monday, 11th April 2016
Rebalancing is happening in China ?
2
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-World
Financial exposures and vulnerabilities
have increased in EMEs
3
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-World
Increase in debt levels
End- period stock, % of GDP
Advanced economies have therefore been
more resilient
4
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-World
Revisions to OECD Economic Outlook projections between June and
November 2015
But there were growth shortfalls in the euro
area
5
Source: OECD.
Macroforecasts-World
The estimated impact on GDP growth in 2015 of changes in
forces acting since June 2014
Difference from baseline, percentage points
Growth recovery is still very subdued
6
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-World
Global GDP growth
What keeps investment down in important
European countries?
7
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-Europe
Total investment
Overall unemployment - except few countries -
only slowly comes down
8
Macroforecasts-Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unemployment rate (%, left axis) Coefficient of variation¹ (right axis)
Unemployment dispersion in the European Union
1. Weighted standard deviation of unemployment rate observations for European Union (28) countries divided by
the average EU unemployment rate.
Source: Calculations based on Eurostat (2016), “Employment and unemployment (LFS)”, Eurostat Database.
Inflation is projected to remain below the target
9
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Macroforecasts-Europe
Harmonised index of consumer prices
Interest rates are low
10
Last observation: 1-Feb-16.
Monetarypolicy
Policy determined and money market interest rates
Central bank assets expanded
11
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank,
Bank of Japan, and Bank of England; and OECD calculations.
Monetarypolicy
Non-performing loans have been coming
down – but not in all countries
12
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Monetarypolicy
As a percentage of gross debt instruments
Inflation expectations still low
13
Source: Thomson Reuters; and Consensus Economics.
Last observation: 2-Feb-16.
Monetarypolicy
Proxies for long-term expected inflation
Euro area
Interest rates now negative for short term
maturity
14Source: Thomson Reuters.
Monetarypolicy
2-year government bond yields
German government bond yield curve
Besides some austerity successes fiscal
space is limited in many euro area countries
15
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Fiscalpolicy
Debt-to-GDP ratio
Maastricht definition
Fiscal now neutral or slightly positive -
Recent and planned consolidation
16
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
PRT
GRC
ESP
IRL
USA
ITA
NLD
SVN
SVK
ISL
NZL
POL
CZE
DNK
EST
AUT
CAN
FRA
HUN
AUS
BEL
JPN
DEU
GBR
KOR
FIN
CHE
ISR
SWE
NOR
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
SVN
GBR
JPN
SWE
BEL
AUS
FRA
ISR
NZL
ESP
CAN
USA
ISL
FIN
GRC
POL
CZE
CHE
IRL
SVK
NLD
ITA
EST
HUN
PRT
KOR
DEU
AUT
NOR
DNK
2011 - 2014 2014 - 2016
Change in the underlying primary balance
Fiscalpolicy
Consolidation relied to a large extent on tax
increases up to 2014
17
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Change in key components of the primary balance
Fiscalpolicy
In the coming years, the focus is going to
be expenditure restraints
18
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Change in key components of the primary balance
Fiscalpolicy
In the past, some countries have adjusted
public investment
19
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
Change in key components of the primary balance
Fiscalpolicy
Juncker’s problem: Divergent product market
regulation harms investment
20
Fiscalpolicy
Product market regulation heterogeneity
Deviation from OECD average bilateral heterogeneity, 2013, per cent
“Source: Fournier, J.-M. (2015), “The Negative Effect of Regulatory Divergence on Foreign Direct Investment”,
OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1268 (forthcoming), OECD Publishing, Paris.
A 20% reduction in regulatory heterogeneity across EU countries
could increase cross-border FDI in the EU by around 15%
Fiscal tools have a different impact on
growth and inequality
21
Growth Equity
Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term
Spending cuts
Education -- -- - --
Health services provided in kind -- - - -
Other government consumption (excluding family
policy) -- + -
Pensions ++
Sickness and disability payments - + -- -
Unemployment benefits - + -
Family - - -- --
Subsidies - ++ + +
Public investment -- --
Revenue increases
Personal income taxes - -- + +
Social security contributions - -- - -
Corporate income taxes - -- + +
Environmental taxes - + -
Consumption taxes (other than environmental) - - -
Recurrent taxes on immovable property -
Other property taxes - ++ +
Sales of goods and services - + - -
Source: Cournède, Goujard and Pina (2014).
Fiscalpolicy
22
Optimal consolidation packages
(growth/equality) in OECD countries
Fiscalpolicy
Ranking from most to least desirable instruments of consolidation
Education
Childcare and family
Social security contributions
Health services in kind
Public investment
Consumption taxes
Sickness payments
Sales of goods and services
Other gov. consumption
Rec. taxes on imm. property
Environmental taxes
Corporate income taxes
Personal income taxes
Unemployment insurance
Other property taxes
Pensions
Subsidies
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Instrument rank
Equal weights
Simulated interdecile range
Source: Cournède, Goujard and Pina (2014).
Limits to sustainability:
– Debt sustainability depends on market assessment of
the probability to default, which is state contingent
and, therefore, debt sustainability limit can vanish
quickly, if market confidence evaporates.
23
24
Country by country prudent debt target
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Prudent debt levels
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Average annual fiscal effort
• The role of the prudent debt target: effective in anchoring
expectations about future fiscal policy. The prudent debt target
serves as the reference point to define numerical fiscal rules.
• Fiscal rules:
– Role: Ensure fiscal discipline and long term growth (well-being)
– Objectives: (1) anchor fiscal policy expectations by targeting a
prudent debt level and (2) allow for macroeconomic
stabilisation.
– Benchmarking existing rules: Budget balance + spending rule
seem the best.
25
… and effective fiscal frameworks
Budget balance Structural balance Expenditure rule Revenue rule
Fiscal stabilisation - + + -
Fiscal discipline ++ + + -+
Side-effects and risks - -- - -
26
EU fiscal rules support debt-sustainability
with a set of several rules
Fiscalrules
Source: Barnes, Botev, Rawdanowicz and Strasky (forthcoming).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
starting debt levels (2016) 2026
Debt levels in 2026 if EU fiscal rules are followed exactly
( % of GDP)  Debt rule
(both nominal and
cyclically-adjusted;
backward- and
forward-looking)
 Nominal budget
balance rule
 Structural
budget balance
rule
 Expenditure rule
The Productivity Problem: Aggregate productivity
growth goes down even before the crisis
Labour productivity growth since 1990
GDP per hour worked (China and India refer to GDP per worker)
Diffusion from frontier is key !
Average of labour productivity across each 2-digit sector (log, 2001=0)
Source: Andrews, D. C. Criscuolo and P. Gal (2015), “Frontier firms, technology diffusion and public policy: micro
evidence from OECD countries”, OECD Productivity Working Papers No. 2.
Diffusion comes easier to some
economies than others
Estimated frontier spillover (% pa) associated with a 2% point increase in
MFP growth at the global productivity frontier
Source: Saia, A., D. Andrews and S. Albrizio (2015), “Public Policy and Spillovers From the Global Productivity Frontier:
Industry Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1238.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Trade with the Frontier Participation in GVCs Efficiency of skill
allocation
Managerial quality Business R&D
Minimum
(Italy)
Minimum
(Italy)
Minimum
(Austria)
Maximum
(Finland)
Maximum
(Belgium)
Maximum
(Sweden)
Maximum
(Canada)
Minimum
(Australia)
Minimum
(Canada)
Maximum
(Belgium)
Globalisation Reallocation Knowledge-Based Capital
Finland
Policies shape the diffusion of new
innovations from the global frontier
Estimated frontier spillover (% pa) associated with a 2% point increase in MFP
growth at the global productivity frontier
Source: Saia, A., D. Andrews and S. Albrizio (2015), “Public Policy and Spillovers From the Global Productivity Frontier:
Industry Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1238.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Barriers to Entrepreneurship Cost of Bankruptcy Legislation
for Entrepreneurs
Basic Research University-Industry Collaboration
Minimum
(Sweden) Minimum
(Norway)
Maximum
(Greece)
Maximum
(Italy)
Maximum
(France)
Maximum
(Belgium)
Minimum
(Belgium) Minimum
(Italy)
Entry and Exit Innovation policies
Finland
Skill mismatch and public policy
Source: Adalet McGowan, M and D. Andrews (2015), “Skill mismatch and public policy in OECD countries”
OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1210.
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Minimum
Maximum
Maximum
(POL)
(DEU)
(FRA)
(ITA)
(BEL)
(SWE) (AUT)
(SVK)
(NLD )
(AUT)
(ITA)
(ITA)
(NLD )
(USA)
(CAN)
(NOR)
(DNK)
(FIN)
(CAN)
(KOR)
(USA)
(KOR)
(DNK)
(FIN)
0.14
0.18
0.22
0.26
0.30
0.34
Productmarket
regulation
Employment
protection
legislation…
Employmentprotection
legislation
(temporaryworkers)
Costofclosing
abusiness
Transactioncosts
Rentcontrol
Tenant-landlord
regulations
Costofobtaining
abuildingpermit
Responsiveness
ofhousingsupply
Coveragerateof
collectivebargaining
agreements
Participationin
lifelonglearning
Managerialquality
Framework policies Housing policies Other policies
FinlandProbability of mismatch
Skill mismatch as a constraint on
labour productivity
Source: Adalet McGowan, M and D. Andrews (2015), “Labour market mismatch and labour productivity:
evidence from PIAAC data ” OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1209.
Skill mismatch, particularly over-skilling, is harmful for productivity because it
constrains the ability of innovative firms to attract skilled workers and grow
• Global Economy: China and EME/ Trade and
Capital flows/ Data ?
• Monetary: Macro via bubbles ?, Financial markets
and Real Economy/ Channels / Long Term
Expectations
• Fiscal: Hysteresis, Multipliers and Non-Linearities
• Structural: Macro/Micro Data, Pass through QSR/
Global Integration-Technology/ GNP accounts
• Dynamic change of preferences, Behaviour and
(individual and group) “rationality”
If economists know what they don’t know,
do they tell ?
THANK YOU

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Christian KASTROP: Economics and Policy Advice – A Farewell Seminar for Mr. Antti Suvanto

  • 1. ECONOMICS AND POLICY ADVICE A Farewell Seminar for Mr. Antti Suvanto Christian KASTROP Director of the Policy Studies Branch Economics Department, OECD, Paris Helsinki, Monday, 11th April 2016
  • 2. Rebalancing is happening in China ? 2 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-World
  • 3. Financial exposures and vulnerabilities have increased in EMEs 3 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-World Increase in debt levels End- period stock, % of GDP
  • 4. Advanced economies have therefore been more resilient 4 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-World Revisions to OECD Economic Outlook projections between June and November 2015
  • 5. But there were growth shortfalls in the euro area 5 Source: OECD. Macroforecasts-World The estimated impact on GDP growth in 2015 of changes in forces acting since June 2014 Difference from baseline, percentage points
  • 6. Growth recovery is still very subdued 6 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-World Global GDP growth
  • 7. What keeps investment down in important European countries? 7 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-Europe Total investment
  • 8. Overall unemployment - except few countries - only slowly comes down 8 Macroforecasts-Europe 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment rate (%, left axis) Coefficient of variation¹ (right axis) Unemployment dispersion in the European Union 1. Weighted standard deviation of unemployment rate observations for European Union (28) countries divided by the average EU unemployment rate. Source: Calculations based on Eurostat (2016), “Employment and unemployment (LFS)”, Eurostat Database.
  • 9. Inflation is projected to remain below the target 9 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Macroforecasts-Europe Harmonised index of consumer prices
  • 10. Interest rates are low 10 Last observation: 1-Feb-16. Monetarypolicy Policy determined and money market interest rates
  • 11. Central bank assets expanded 11 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England; and OECD calculations. Monetarypolicy
  • 12. Non-performing loans have been coming down – but not in all countries 12 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Monetarypolicy As a percentage of gross debt instruments
  • 13. Inflation expectations still low 13 Source: Thomson Reuters; and Consensus Economics. Last observation: 2-Feb-16. Monetarypolicy Proxies for long-term expected inflation Euro area
  • 14. Interest rates now negative for short term maturity 14Source: Thomson Reuters. Monetarypolicy 2-year government bond yields German government bond yield curve
  • 15. Besides some austerity successes fiscal space is limited in many euro area countries 15 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Fiscalpolicy Debt-to-GDP ratio Maastricht definition
  • 16. Fiscal now neutral or slightly positive - Recent and planned consolidation 16 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 PRT GRC ESP IRL USA ITA NLD SVN SVK ISL NZL POL CZE DNK EST AUT CAN FRA HUN AUS BEL JPN DEU GBR KOR FIN CHE ISR SWE NOR -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 SVN GBR JPN SWE BEL AUS FRA ISR NZL ESP CAN USA ISL FIN GRC POL CZE CHE IRL SVK NLD ITA EST HUN PRT KOR DEU AUT NOR DNK 2011 - 2014 2014 - 2016 Change in the underlying primary balance Fiscalpolicy
  • 17. Consolidation relied to a large extent on tax increases up to 2014 17 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Change in key components of the primary balance Fiscalpolicy
  • 18. In the coming years, the focus is going to be expenditure restraints 18 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Change in key components of the primary balance Fiscalpolicy
  • 19. In the past, some countries have adjusted public investment 19 Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Change in key components of the primary balance Fiscalpolicy
  • 20. Juncker’s problem: Divergent product market regulation harms investment 20 Fiscalpolicy Product market regulation heterogeneity Deviation from OECD average bilateral heterogeneity, 2013, per cent “Source: Fournier, J.-M. (2015), “The Negative Effect of Regulatory Divergence on Foreign Direct Investment”, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1268 (forthcoming), OECD Publishing, Paris. A 20% reduction in regulatory heterogeneity across EU countries could increase cross-border FDI in the EU by around 15%
  • 21. Fiscal tools have a different impact on growth and inequality 21 Growth Equity Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term Spending cuts Education -- -- - -- Health services provided in kind -- - - - Other government consumption (excluding family policy) -- + - Pensions ++ Sickness and disability payments - + -- - Unemployment benefits - + - Family - - -- -- Subsidies - ++ + + Public investment -- -- Revenue increases Personal income taxes - -- + + Social security contributions - -- - - Corporate income taxes - -- + + Environmental taxes - + - Consumption taxes (other than environmental) - - - Recurrent taxes on immovable property - Other property taxes - ++ + Sales of goods and services - + - - Source: Cournède, Goujard and Pina (2014). Fiscalpolicy
  • 22. 22 Optimal consolidation packages (growth/equality) in OECD countries Fiscalpolicy Ranking from most to least desirable instruments of consolidation Education Childcare and family Social security contributions Health services in kind Public investment Consumption taxes Sickness payments Sales of goods and services Other gov. consumption Rec. taxes on imm. property Environmental taxes Corporate income taxes Personal income taxes Unemployment insurance Other property taxes Pensions Subsidies 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Instrument rank Equal weights Simulated interdecile range Source: Cournède, Goujard and Pina (2014).
  • 23. Limits to sustainability: – Debt sustainability depends on market assessment of the probability to default, which is state contingent and, therefore, debt sustainability limit can vanish quickly, if market confidence evaporates. 23
  • 24. 24 Country by country prudent debt target 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Prudent debt levels 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Average annual fiscal effort
  • 25. • The role of the prudent debt target: effective in anchoring expectations about future fiscal policy. The prudent debt target serves as the reference point to define numerical fiscal rules. • Fiscal rules: – Role: Ensure fiscal discipline and long term growth (well-being) – Objectives: (1) anchor fiscal policy expectations by targeting a prudent debt level and (2) allow for macroeconomic stabilisation. – Benchmarking existing rules: Budget balance + spending rule seem the best. 25 … and effective fiscal frameworks Budget balance Structural balance Expenditure rule Revenue rule Fiscal stabilisation - + + - Fiscal discipline ++ + + -+ Side-effects and risks - -- - -
  • 26. 26 EU fiscal rules support debt-sustainability with a set of several rules Fiscalrules Source: Barnes, Botev, Rawdanowicz and Strasky (forthcoming). 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 starting debt levels (2016) 2026 Debt levels in 2026 if EU fiscal rules are followed exactly ( % of GDP)  Debt rule (both nominal and cyclically-adjusted; backward- and forward-looking)  Nominal budget balance rule  Structural budget balance rule  Expenditure rule
  • 27. The Productivity Problem: Aggregate productivity growth goes down even before the crisis Labour productivity growth since 1990 GDP per hour worked (China and India refer to GDP per worker)
  • 28. Diffusion from frontier is key ! Average of labour productivity across each 2-digit sector (log, 2001=0) Source: Andrews, D. C. Criscuolo and P. Gal (2015), “Frontier firms, technology diffusion and public policy: micro evidence from OECD countries”, OECD Productivity Working Papers No. 2.
  • 29. Diffusion comes easier to some economies than others Estimated frontier spillover (% pa) associated with a 2% point increase in MFP growth at the global productivity frontier Source: Saia, A., D. Andrews and S. Albrizio (2015), “Public Policy and Spillovers From the Global Productivity Frontier: Industry Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1238. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Trade with the Frontier Participation in GVCs Efficiency of skill allocation Managerial quality Business R&D Minimum (Italy) Minimum (Italy) Minimum (Austria) Maximum (Finland) Maximum (Belgium) Maximum (Sweden) Maximum (Canada) Minimum (Australia) Minimum (Canada) Maximum (Belgium) Globalisation Reallocation Knowledge-Based Capital Finland
  • 30. Policies shape the diffusion of new innovations from the global frontier Estimated frontier spillover (% pa) associated with a 2% point increase in MFP growth at the global productivity frontier Source: Saia, A., D. Andrews and S. Albrizio (2015), “Public Policy and Spillovers From the Global Productivity Frontier: Industry Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1238. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Barriers to Entrepreneurship Cost of Bankruptcy Legislation for Entrepreneurs Basic Research University-Industry Collaboration Minimum (Sweden) Minimum (Norway) Maximum (Greece) Maximum (Italy) Maximum (France) Maximum (Belgium) Minimum (Belgium) Minimum (Italy) Entry and Exit Innovation policies Finland
  • 31. Skill mismatch and public policy Source: Adalet McGowan, M and D. Andrews (2015), “Skill mismatch and public policy in OECD countries” OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1210. Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum Maximum Maximum (POL) (DEU) (FRA) (ITA) (BEL) (SWE) (AUT) (SVK) (NLD ) (AUT) (ITA) (ITA) (NLD ) (USA) (CAN) (NOR) (DNK) (FIN) (CAN) (KOR) (USA) (KOR) (DNK) (FIN) 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.30 0.34 Productmarket regulation Employment protection legislation… Employmentprotection legislation (temporaryworkers) Costofclosing abusiness Transactioncosts Rentcontrol Tenant-landlord regulations Costofobtaining abuildingpermit Responsiveness ofhousingsupply Coveragerateof collectivebargaining agreements Participationin lifelonglearning Managerialquality Framework policies Housing policies Other policies FinlandProbability of mismatch
  • 32. Skill mismatch as a constraint on labour productivity Source: Adalet McGowan, M and D. Andrews (2015), “Labour market mismatch and labour productivity: evidence from PIAAC data ” OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1209. Skill mismatch, particularly over-skilling, is harmful for productivity because it constrains the ability of innovative firms to attract skilled workers and grow
  • 33. • Global Economy: China and EME/ Trade and Capital flows/ Data ? • Monetary: Macro via bubbles ?, Financial markets and Real Economy/ Channels / Long Term Expectations • Fiscal: Hysteresis, Multipliers and Non-Linearities • Structural: Macro/Micro Data, Pass through QSR/ Global Integration-Technology/ GNP accounts • Dynamic change of preferences, Behaviour and (individual and group) “rationality” If economists know what they don’t know, do they tell ?

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. The decline in oil prices since mid-2014 is estimated to boost GDP by around 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7 percentage point per annum in 2015 in the euro area. The euro effective exchange rate depreciations since mid-2014 could boost GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage point in the euro area in 2015. The observed decline in euro area long-term government bond rates and private sector borrowing rates since mid-2014 is estimated to have boosted GDP growth by a further 0.4‑0.5 percentage point in 2015. The additional public spending resulting from higher inflows of asylum seekers in Europe in 2015 should also be making a small positive contribution to euro area GDP growth of between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point in 2015-16. The positive stimulus has been offset, at least in part, by the greater-than-expected slowdown in China and other EMEs, reducing external demand. The slowdown relative to what was expected in mid-2014, has on average reduced GDP growth by close to ½ percentage point per annum over 2015-16 in the euro area.
  2. The solid line represents the policy rate of the central banks. United States: Federal Funds target rate; Euro area: EONIA (Euro overnight index average)
  3. 1. The sum of total assets of the four central banks, using actual exchange rates. 2. The Bank of England’s consolidated balance sheet is not available before May 2006. Following changes to the Bank of England’s weekly reporting regime, the total assets since September 2014 refer to the sum of balance sheet items that are released immediately.
  4. 1. Expected average annual inflation 5 to 10 years ahead, based on 5-year and 10-year inflation swaps. 2. Expected inflation implied by the yield differential between 10-year government benchmark bonds and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds. 3. Average of 6-10-year ahead inflation forecast by professional forecasters from Consensus Economics. Source: Thomson Reuters; and Consensus Economics."
  5. On average per year over the period 2014-16, fiscal consolidation is estimated to amount to less than one-fifth its value in 2011-2014 in euro area countries.
  6. Note: The sum correspond to the variation of the primary balance (cyclically adjusted). a positive number for spending correspond to a cut in spending
  7. Amongst spending, it is important to make a difference between current spending and investment. In the past, the adjustment has been done through investment, which is not a good strategy from a longer term perspective.
  8. d1 (estimated) is the first threshold over which governments react strongly to growing debt ration; at d2 (estimated, fragile because it depends on few countries), fiscal fatigue settle in and governments react less and less to the growing debt ratio. Between d (lower bar) and d (upper bar), default can occur depending on market confidence (assessment of default probability). That is, increasing interest rate due to evaporating market confidence leads the debt dynamics in defaulting path.
  9. In designing a fiscal framework, the starting point is to define the targets and instruments. A debt target can be effective in anchoring expectations about future fiscal policy. The prudent debt target serves as the reference point to define numerical fiscal rules, in particular, for countries with high debt that have to converge to a lower prudent debt ratio.
  10. Note: 2016 debt levels are taken from Economic Outlook No. 96 database. 2026 debt levels are results of a simulation, in which the countries follow the EU fiscal rules every year between 2017 and 2026 exactly, i.e. they do not over- or underperform relative to the requirements of the rules. Rules considered were: the debt rule (including its transition variant), 3% nominal budget balance rule, medium-term objective (MTO, structural balance) rule and adjustment towards MTO (change in the structural balance) rule. The size of the assumed fiscal multiplier is -0.5.
  11. Productivity growth slowed in many OECD countries even before the crisis… … and this was accompanied by a slowdown in KBC accumulation and decline in business start-ups, raising concerns of a structural slowing in productivity growth.
  12. Productivity growth of the globally most productive firms remained robust in the 21st century, despite the slowdown in aggregate productivity. Labour productivity at the global technological frontier increased at an average annual rate of 3.5% in the manufacturing sector over 2000s, compared to just 0.5% for non-frontier firms, while the gap is even more pronounced in the services sector. This rising gap raises questions about why seemingly non-rival technologies and knowledge do not diffuse to all firms …. and suggests that future growth will depend on re-harnessing the forces of knowledge diffusion, which propelled productivity growth for much of the 20th century.
  13. This diffusion process is shaped by some key structural factors…. Exposure to the knowledge of – and competition with – global frontier firms, via trade, participation in global value chains (GVCs) etc Complementary investments in KBC: technological adoption entails significant organisational restructuring, which requires managerial skill, and domestic R&D capabilities to absorb foreign technologies. Efficient resource allocation: firms need to achieve sufficient scale to cover the fixed costs of entry into international markets… BUT
  14. BTE and bankruptcy have a double-dividend in terms of resource allocation