SarahWynn_Prague_June11

Monsanto Weed Workshop “North”
13th – 15th June 2011
Movenpick - Prague

Agro-economic analysis
of the use of glyphosate
in UK agriculture
Sarah Wynn
Sarah.Wynn@adas.co.uk
James Clarke & Sarah Cook

www.adas.co.uk

Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture

Agro-economic analysis of the use of
glyphosate in UK agriculture
Background
Project methodology
Major uses of glyphosate in the UK
Major implications and value of use
Economic
Environmental
Social
Conclusions
Key issues to address


Glyphosate in context
Important in agriculture and amenity
Controls most vegetation growing at the time of application
Wide range of UK crops and grass
Amenity and home and garden sectors
Concerns to be addressed
Frequently detected in surface water at low levels
Above 0.1µg/l drinking water limit
Some residues in grain
Concentrations below level of health issues
Concern that restrictions may be put on its use

Monsanto adopting pro-active approach to
managing the concerns and ensuring
continued availability


Glyphosate: world’s best-selling herbicide
4,000

3,500

3,000
• First marketed 1973
2,500 • No1 selling herbicide since 1980
Sales $M

2,000 • US Patent expired 2000
1,500
• Roundup Ready® patents since 1996

1,000

500

0
r or at yr
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e lo -D op ne al
in ne te te lin ba op
s h hl qu ,4 pr zi h io na sa ap ra m af
o oc ac a 2 a tr
a
et tr si fo h flu a
di
n
ph et ol ar ox A so fo ul et ri ic
ly c e t P n im e lu S az T D lo
G A M Fe e nd M G Im C
P
Source: Phillips McDougall, 2008

4


Glyphosate in Europe

Pre-harvest
Cereals, oilseeds, pulses
Pre-planting or pre-emergence
Wide range of crops
Vegetation control
Orchards, vineyards, non-agricultural,
amenity


Herbicide use in UK – area sprayed (ha) and
active substance (kg) – arable crops 2008
1,800,000 1,800
Ha Active substance
1,600,000 1,600

1,400,000 1,400

Kg active substance used
1,200,000 1,200
Ha treated

1,000,000 1,000

800,000 800

600,000 600

400,000 Approval 400

200,000 ceased 2008 200

0 0
in
on

yr
e

-P

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at

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ur

p
ha
ur
os

fu
ro
t

ox
ro

if l

ul
et

op
ph

Tr

ur
op

os
im

ec
ly

Fl
Is

es
nd
G

M

/m
e
/p

n
et

ro
ac

lf u
en

su
uf

do
Fl

Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008
Io


Project methodology

Desk based project
Literature and expert knowledge
Project reports and experiments
Data sources and validation
Pesticides Usage Survey 2008
Agronomists and farmers workshops
Gross margin calculations
Environmental calculations
GHG emissions (CO2e) based on PAS2050


Main glyphosate use in UK
Pre-harvest Pre-planting Pre-emergence
• Perennial weed control • Annual and perennial weed • Annual weed
• Harvest aid – reducing control (stale seed bed) control
moisture • Can reduce need for
cultivation and reduces
herbicide within crop


Establishing the impacts

Identify key benefits
Identify alternative approaches
Herbicides: diquat, glufosinate-ammonium,
pyraflufen-ethyl
Other: cultivation, later planting, direct combining
Calculate implications of unavailability
Cost
Social and environmental


Benefits of pre-harvest use
Timing Benefit
Weed control Elytrigia repens control: 100 shoots/m2
could cause at least 10% yield reductions
10% in wheat, 15% in OSR, greater in
spring crops
Uneven or Dries out green material
weedy crops lowers harvest moisture (1-2%)
General Increased combine efficiency – increased
speed of travel
Lower harvest cost 3.5L/ha fuel saved


Benefits pre-planting/pre-emergence
Timing Benefit
Stale seed beds Controls weeds and volunteer
crops
Pre-planting Bare soil prior to planting reduces
pest and disease infection
Pre-planting and Mode of action reduces herbicide
pre-emergence resistance pressures

Typical benefit 20% increase in yield


Value of key benefits of glyphosate
Use Key benefits Value
(£/ha
treated)
Pre-harvest in Elytrigia repens control to prevent 56
winter wheat yield loss across a rotation, reduction
in drying costs
Pre-harvest in Desiccant and harvest aid, reduced 108
oilseed rape drying and earlier harvest
Pre-planting of Reduce grass weeds, such as 310
winter wheat Alopecurus myosuroides, volunteers
and perennial weeds


Assessing impacts at UK scale

Crop areas
Average areas affected by weeds
Usage patterns/area treated
Pesticide Usage Survey
Agronomist/farmer workshops


Wheat and oilseed rape: major UK crops

2,500
000 ha £m value
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Wheat Winter Spring Oats OSR Peas Beans
barley barley

Source: Defra Statistics 2008, UK


Area treated with glyphosate in UK 2008
Crop Area treated No of % crop % Pre-
(spray ha) applications treated harvest
Wheat 651,000 1.16 27 78
Winter barley 120,000 1.18 25 77
Spring barley 175,000 1.14 26 83
Oats 23,000 1.17 19 94
OSR 529,000 1.25 70 96
Peas 19,000 1.39 45 87
Beans 73,000 1.20 51 41

Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008


% area treated, by crop, with glyphosate
Pre-planting PUS Pre-harvest PUS
100% Pre-planting West Pre-harvest West
Pre-planting East Pre-harvest East
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Wheat Spring Barley OSR

Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer
meetings in West & East of England


Yields reduced without glyphosate
Wheat Spring Barley OSR
0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%
Pre-planting Pre-harvest
-25%


Estimated % loss of production to UK, by crop,
without glyphosate

y

y
le

rle
ar

ba
rB

g

s
at

te

rin

n
as
s

SR
he

in

ea
at
Sp

Pe
W

W

O

O

B
0

-5

-10

-15

-20
-25


Estimated loss £m to UK, all crops, without glyphosate
0

-100

-200

-300

-400

-500

-600

-700

-800

-900


Impact of losses at farm scale

Wheat, wheat, oilseed rape (OSR)
On a 100 ha farm
£47,300 annual cost
Unprofitable to grow crops
Rotational change


Impact of loss on food prices

To maintain current farm income levels
requires increased price/tonne of:
Wheat 40%
Oilseed rape 26%
Increase in price of products
Bread 3.6p/loaf
Livestock feed and meat prices


Environmental impacts
Soils
- More cultivation , more erosion, poorer structure
Land use
- Limited availability, GHG impacts
Biodiversity
+ If more spring cropping
- Increased cultivation, Land Use Change (LUC)
Water quality
- Alternative herbicides, sediment
Greenhouse gas emissions


Implications for GHG emissions

Based on PAS20501 methodology
Default value for LUC (could be underestimate)
Increased fuel use
Low yields increase emissions per tonne
Estimate increase CO2e of 25-65% for UK
wheat production
1Publiclyavailable specification 2050 (PAS2050):2008 – Specification for the
assessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and
services. Available from www.bsigroup.com/pas2050


Social impacts

Quality of life for farm workers
100% increase in labour/time required for
cultivation and harvest
Reduced harvest flexibility


Loss of glyphosate would cause....
Severe losses to UK agriculture
Greatest loss is pre-planting use
£150m - £550m/year for wheat (c. £300/ha treated)
£225m - £810m/year for all crops
Additional losses pre-harvest use
£72m - £152m/year in wheat (c. £50/ha treated)
> £300m in all crops (c. £100/ha OSR treated)
Negative impacts to the environment
Crop area increased by 5-20% (if land available)
GHG emissions increased by up to 65%
Soil quality, water quality and biodiversity reduced


Actions required to retain availability of
valuable active substance

Need to resolve uncertainty over area treated if
greater precision of impact is required
Pro-active campaign to:
Remind farmers, agronomists and policymakers
of benefits
Remind policymakers levels are below level of
health impact
Ensure always used to best practice
Protect watercourses
Avoid point source contamination and drift
Ensure any use is always justified

SarahWynn_Prague_June11

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