Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: Unlocking the Opportunities - SMMT

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: Unlocking the Opportunities - SMMT
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED Connected and autonomous vehicles: unlocking the opportunities David Wong Senior Technology and Innovation Manager Intelligent Mobility, Intelligent Cities techUK 2 October 2017
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 2 ‘Connected’ and autonomous’ vehicles – one and the same? How will CAVs improve our lives? How can we unlock the opportunities?
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 4PAGE 4 Connectivity: enabling V2X
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 5 Connected vehicle services today and in the future Vehicle-to- Infrastructure (V2I) Vehicle-to- Vehicle (V2V) Vehicle-to-Cloud Vehicle-to- Person Smartphone Mirroring Navigation Location-based Services Emergency Call Stolen Vehicle Tracking Roadside Assistance Software-over- the-air Fleet Management Remote Vehicle Interaction Connected vehicle services Entertainment High-Definition Map Updates Insurance In-car WiFi Mobility Services
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 7PAGE 7 Defined levels of automation L0 L1 L3 L4 AutomationLevel Driver continuously in control of speed and direction Driver continuously performs the longitudinal or lateral dynamic driving task Driver must monitor the dynamic driving task and the driving environment at all times Driver does not need to monitor the dynamic driving task nor the driving environment at all times; must always be in a position to resume control Driver is not required during defined use case No intervening vehicle system active The other driving task is performed by the system System performs longitudinal and lateral driving task in a defined use case System performs longitudinal and lateral driving task in a defined use case. Recognises its performance limits and requests driver to resume the dynamic driving task with sufficient time margin System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations in a defined use case System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations encountered during the entire journey. No driver required Driver only Assisted Partial Automation Conditional automation High automation Full automation Driver L5L2 Example: Park Assist Traffic Jam Assist Highway Patrol Urban Automated Driving Full end-to-end journey OICA’s Levels of Automated Driving, based on SAE J3016 Longitudinal + lateral control Adaptive Cruise Control with Lane Departure Warning and Lane Keeping Assistance Traffic Jam Assist ACC with Lane Keeping Assistance Parking and manoeuvring Automated Cross Parking Assistance Automated Parallel Parking Assistance
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 8 Connected cars in the UK fleet: deployment projection Source: KPMG (2015), Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: The UK Economic Opportunity. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 Non-Connected Connected
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 9 Over 1.5m British new car buyers benefit from driver assistance systems Source: JATO Dynamics analysis based on SMMT new car registration data 2015.
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 10 Testing and announced early stage deployment
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 11 Convergence: a future of ACES
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 13PAGE 13 Unprecedented opportunities • >94% of accidents due to human error • Low-speed AEB – ↓38% real world rear-end crashes • 2,500 lives saved, 25,000 serious accidents prevented (2014-2030) • Truck platooning: potential headway gap 6- 22m (0.3-1.0 sec) at 50mph • Urban roads, peak traffic, low numbers of AVs: -12% delays, +21% journey time reliability • ITS using V2V and V2I: ↓CO2 emission ≤20% • 6/10 with limited mobility –  quality of life • 1/2 young people would use an AV today if they could • 1/2 with mobility-related disabilities – pursue hobbies outside home; 2/5 – better access to healthcare • 47% older people – more easily fulfil day- to-day tasks (e.g. grocery shopping) • £51bn value added p.a. by 2030 (2014 prices) • 320,000 additional jobs by 2030 (25,000 in automotive manufacturing) • US study: 15% tighter parking spaces, overall ↓5.7bn m2
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 14PAGE 14 An estimate of the value of time where consumers can make more use of the time spent in their vehicles through increased connectivity £20bn More efficient journeys lead to greater productivity and labour market flexibility £15bn Other savings for consumers including reduced costs in insurance, running costs and parking £5bn Producer impact is based on expected growth in profit from increased sales due to demand of connected and autonomous vehicles and increased local content • An increase in tax revenues is assumed from direct taxations such as revenue from income tax due to the increased number of jobs and increased revenue from corporation tax • Increased revenue from indirect taxes such as increased demand in fuel therefore an increase in revenue generated from related taxes • It is assumed that 94% of accidents occur due to human error as estimated by the DfT. This is forecast to halve by 2030. • Infrastructure investments and road maintenance costs will rise • Travel and freight costs reduce across the economy • Trade and exports increase across the economy • Telecommunications data traffic increases by 12% CAGR • Consolidation of monoline motor insurers • Revenue growth for creative industries including digital, advertising, media • Revenue growth for digital retailers • Revenue growth for service industries – IT, technology, electronics • Better use of space in cities, energy management and impact on property values £40bnConsumer Impacts £2bnProducer Impacts £16bnWider Impacts £2bnTaxation £2bnSafety (£11bn)Cost Source: KPMG (2015), Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: The UK Economic Opportunity. £51bn economic impact
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 15PAGE 15 CAV market value forecast Source: Transport Systems Catapult (2017), Market Forecast for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles.
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 17PAGE 17 Four overarching challenges Technology and infrastructure Policy, regulation and standards Behavioural issues and public acceptance Business models • Sensor fusion, AI, machine learning, deep learning for L4/5 • Fully fail-operational system • HMI and control handback • High precision mapping • Virtual testing and validation • Digital (e.g. LTE-V, 5G, ITS G5) and physical infrastructure • Insurance/liability framework • Highway Code and Construction & Use Regulations • Harmonised international regulations (UNECE Reg. 79) • Type approval, certification and future MOT • Data protection and data sharing • Driver licensing and future ‘driving test’ • 5G and IoT standards • Public perception and misconceptions • Co-existence with legacy motor parc and other traffic • Social behaviours (e.g. playing chickens) • Reshaping future cities and urban centres • New opportunities from ‘servitisation’ and ‘horizontalisation’ of the product • New insurance business models (e.g. PAYD) • Who pays for connectivity? • Towards integrated mobility solutions
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED 2014 2015 Summer 2015 2016 2017 2017 Government funding (match funded by industry) Dec: £19m for 3 driverless cars consortia Mar: £100m Intelligent Mobility Fund £5m EPSRC-JLR fundamental research £1.2m Traveller Needs & UK Capabilities Study Feb: £20m CAV1 Competition 8 CR&D projects + 14 feasibility studies Autumn Statement: £100m for CAV testing ecosystem; £740m for local full fibre networks and 5G test beds/trials Apr-May: £31m CAV2 Competition for 24 projects + £38m from the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund for Level 4 AI and control systems Jul: £16m for 5G test network at 3 universities Closed Jul 2017: £55m CAV Test Bed Competition; awaiting results Open until 25 Oct 2017: £25m CAV3 Competition
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 19PAGE 19 Government-industry funded projects Illustration courtesy of C-CAV
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 20 Homegrown British technology
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 21PAGE 21 UK testing ecosystem Illustration courtesy of C-CAV
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 22 Virtual testing and validation Illustration courtesy of HORIBA MIRA
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 23PAGE 23 The original Intelligent Mobility roadmap Source: Automotive Council Technology Group 2013
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 24PAGE 24 The new Intelligent Connected Vehicle roadmap Source: Automotive Council Technology Group 2017
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 25 5G test beds and trials Illustration courtesy of DCMS
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 26 Mobile network coverage on the UK road network Source: RAC Foundation analysis using Ofcom data, 2015. Almost 4,600 miles (2%) of British roads have no 2G coverage from any network provider, whereas only 43,000 miles (18%) and 119,000 miles (48%) have full 4G and 3G coverage respectively. Miles (%) of road in Britain with… Full network coverage Partial network coverage No network coverage 2G 211,753 (86%) 28,975 (12%) 4,561 (2%) 3G 119,057 (48%) 111,679 (45%) 14,554 (6%) 4G 43,070 (18%) 65,950 (27%) 136,271 (56%) Note: percentages might not add up to 100% because of rounding. Partial network coverage means that at least one of the four network providers – Vodafone, O2, EE, Three - will offer a signal.
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 27 VHS vs Betamax all over again? ITS-G5 (aka 802.11p, WAVE or DSRC) Cellular V2X (LTE-V, 5G in the future) Illustration courtesy of 5G Automotive Association
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 28 Physical infrastructure
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 29 Regulatory review and insurance reform Queen’s Speech 21 June 2017: Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 30 Security by design and default Illustration courtesy of BMW Group 5*StarS consortium on assurance framework for vehicle security
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 31 Using AVs: people’s willingness vs preference Source: VENTURER Consortium.
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 32 Vehicle generated and personal data Type of data Type 1: Non-brand differentiated data Type 2: Brand differentiated data Type 3: Personal data Description of datasets 1A: Data in the public interest that is contributed for improvement of traffic management and safety 1B: Defined datasets across participating vehicle manufacturers for potential third-party commercial services 2A: Data with vehicle manufacturer-specific IP relevance 2B: Data for component analysis and product improvement 3: Data that supports services requiring user or vehicle identification, or the use of personal data including but not limited to the VIN Examples Local hazard warning/activation of hazard warning light, accident position, position of active emergency vehicles, roadblocks, icy roads, potholes, average speed/traffic flow, ambient temperature Ambient temperature, average speed, road sign recognition, on- street parking Engine operating map, gearbox operating map, lane marking perception, proprietary sensor data, software algorithms Actuator data, engine injection behaviour, fuel pump performance, automatic transmission shifting behaviour, fault memory data, battery performance, stability control data, battery status, brake pad wear Vehicle location, movement profile, average speed, acceleration, fuel and consumption levels (along with VIN); navigation destinations, address book, personalised access to third-party services, infotainment settings, personalised in-car settings (e.g. seat), health and wellbeing data Potential data processors Public authorities (e.g. Highways England, local authorities) Commercial or non- commercial third parties (e.g. app developers, aftermarket) Vehicle manufacturer, partner(s) on vehicle manufacturer’s behalf (e.g. dealers, subsidiaries) Vehicle manufacturer, supplier(s), partner(s) on vehicle manufacturer’s behalf Only parties authorised to process data by law, contract and consent (e.g. insurers, app developers) IP relevance None None Vehicle manufacturer Vehicle manufacturer and its supplier(s) Some accruing to vehicle manufacturer but mostly none Anonymity Anonymised Anonymised Anonymised Anonymised User identified Personal data protection relevance None None None None Medium to high Data provision There must be no discrimination with regard to pricing, amount and type of data made available, timeliness of data transfer and other relevant quality criteria Data-sharing agreement Individual reciprocal agreements with vehicle manufacturers Individual agreements with customers and third-party market participants
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 33 New opportunities upstream and downstream
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 34 Vehicle-as-a-Platform and the Internet of Things
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 35 Car and ride sharing on the rise Global ride sharing membership Chart courtesy of Frost & SullivanSource: SMMT/Frost & Sullivan, The Importance of the UK Aftermarket to the UK Economy 2017
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 36 Beyond the traditional: towards mobility and services Illustration courtesy of PTOLEMUS
THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED None of us is as good as all of us
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited 71 Great Peter Street, London SW1P 2BN www.smmt.co.uk SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor industry’ brandline are registered trademarks of SMMT Ltd. Thank you

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