1.
How the Future of Mobility
is driving changes to
business models
Warwick Goodall
techUK Intelligent Mobility, Intelligent Cities
02 October 2017
@whereswarwick

2.
2
Big changes to business models in the Future of Mobility
Economics
Market Positioning
Business Model Questions
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2
3
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2
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3
Energy
£37bn
UK extended
mobility ecosystem
revenues
~£500bn
Finance
£37bn
Transportation
£90bn
Automotive
£249bn
Media
£4bn
Insurance
£14bn
Technology
£5bn
Medical
& Legal
£8bn
Public
sector
£55bn
Stakes are high – with approximately £500bn UK ecosystem
Data from 2014-2015
Sources: Deloitte analysis, with data from Office of National Statistics, TechUK, Finance and Leasing Association, Legal Services Board,
Department of Communities and Local Government, SMMT, Department for Transport, Magnetic, Statista.
Disruption is coming…how will it impact the business model?
Decreasing revenuesIncreasing revenues Unchanged TBD

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Converging forces will likely give rise to the emergence of four
future states of mobility, which will exist in parallel
Personal Shared
AutonomousDriverAssisted
Vehicle Ownership
Vehiclecontrol
Shared
Autonomous
Shared
Driver-Driven
Personally Owned
Autonomous
Personally Owned
Driver-Driven1 2
3 4
Low
Asset
efficiency

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Autonomous drive and shared mobility offer significant economic
benefits to passengers
Source: Deloitte analysis, based on publicly available information (US DOT, AAA, etc).
Personal Shared
AutonomousDriverAssisted
Vehicle Ownership
Vehiclecontrol
Shared
Autonomous
Shared
Driver-Driven
Personally Owned
Autonomous
Personally Owned
Driver-Driven1 2
3 4
Low
Asset
efficiency
The low-cost economics of autonomous drive and shared mobility will
be a driving force behind widespread adoption
~$0.97 ~$0.63
~$0.46 ~$0.31

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The disruptive nature of this transformation will result in massive
shifts in economic value
Increased consumption
of multimedia/ information and
value derived from
curating holistic in-transit
experience
Decrease in personally-owned
vehicle sales and profound mix
shifts. Value shifts to managing
end-to-end mobility experience
Shared mobility
funding rises but
may not offset lower
levels of personal
loans and leasing
Rapid growth of AD operating
system and mobility
management technology &
services providers
Shifts from personal
liability to
catastrophic
systems-failure
insurance
Lower energy
consumed due to
rise of electric
vehicles
Erosion of tax
revenues related to
sales/ registration and
fuel taxes, parking and
traffic citations and shift
to dynamic pricing
models
More efficient last mile
delivery lowers costs and
accelerates shift away from
physical stores
Bandwidth greatly
expands to meet
increased demand
for connectivity &
reliability
Significant
reduction in EMS
and legal costs as
accidents plummet
Rise of seamless intermodal
transportation and significant
increases in efficiency of LH
trucking/cargo delivery
EnergyFinance
TransportInsurance
Telecom
Automotive
Retail
Public
sector
Medical
& Legal
Technology
Media

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Effects on the Automotive Value Chain
A multitude of different scenarios across
time/markets/segments.
• The technology hype cools down
• Industry outsiders like Uber enter
the market and provide affordable
mass mobility
• Strong displacement competition
• The automotive value chain remains
mostly unchanged
• Hype around connectivity
technologies is gone – cars are mere
vehicles for transportation
Below technological
possibilities
Suppliers and
outsiders set
the rules
OEMs
dominate the
automotive
world
• OEMs dominate the automotive
value chain through gated
platforms
• OEMs set standards for
connected services and
modern life infrastructure
The fallen giant
• Cars are software based high-
tech products with OEMs providing
the shell
• Tech players manage in-vehicle
services and platforms
Hardware platform provider Data & mobility manager
Stagnant car maker
of Power
CapabilitiesofCars
Balance
To the full extent

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Changing business models
The “Fourth Emergency Service”
From a model based on road-side
assistance…
… to a digital service to predict
and prevent break-downs
• AA Car Genie uses state-of-the art
Internet of Things (IoT) technologies
• Real-time data flow to AA help desk
• Predictive analytics to spot trouble
before it happens

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Merging business models will generate value to multiple players
Citymapper’s Project Black Bus
Journey
planner
Data
insight
Taxi
platform
Taxi
drivers

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Mobility as a Service (MaaS) players provide a service that
orchestrates the supply and demand for transportation to move
people and goods
MaaS Provider
Characteristics
1.User-facing interface (such
as a mobile app)
2.Integration across
transportation modes
3.Seamless planning through
to payment
4.Subscription and/or
transactional-based
billing
If Netflix’s business model
was applied to urban
transportation, how might
that change the way city
dwellers get around?

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More business model questions to be explored
What will the mobility
operating platform
look like?
Will users pay for
transportation, or will
other services
generate more
revenue?
What is the impact
and role of regulators
in constraining
business models?
Who processes and
monetises the data?

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1 Industries rise and fall. Cycles take long periods
to play out but eventually change occurs.
2
The system benefits and fundamental
economics of the Future of Mobility are
overwhelmingly compelling.
3
There is a pathway for legacy incumbents to lead
the transition to the future of mobility, but this will
require fundamental and expeditious business
model change and major investment.
4
Collaboration across the ecosystem will
continue to increase as new value capture
opportunities arise.
5
Future market leadership will be gained from
determining “where to play” and “how to win”
in a more complex and expansive mobility
ecosystem.
As the new business models evolve,
organisations could benefit from
recognising the following:

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Deloitte Perspectives on The Future of MobilityTM
www.deloitte.com/FOM
@whereswarwick