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Wisconsin Economic Update

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Wisconsin Economic Update

  1. 1. D E N N I S K . W I N T E R S C h i e f E c o n o m i s t W i s c o n s i n D e p a r t m e n t o f W o r k f o r c e D e v e l o p m e n t Milwauke e
  2. 2. Be Careful
  3. 3. -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gross domestic product, (Q/Q % Change, Real $) Gross Domestic Product
  4. 4. Sales, Food and Beverage Stores Source: Advance Retail Sales: Food and Beverage Stores; BEA; FRED
  5. 5. Unemployment Rate 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Percent Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted) Wisconsin U.S.
  6. 6. Employment 2,500,000 2,600,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 2,900,000 3,000,000 3,100,000 3,200,000 Wisconsin Laborforce & Employment (SA) Laborforce Employed
  7. 7. Unemployment 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Wisconsin Unemployed
  8. 8. Wisconsin Jobs 2100.0 2200.0 2300.0 2400.0 2500.0 2600.0 2700.0 2800.0 2900.0 3000.0 3100.0 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Wisconsin Jobs TNF SA TNF NSA Priv SA Priv NSA
  9. 9. How Jobs are Tracking Source: LMI, OEA 2,500,000 2,600,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 2,900,000 3,000,000 3,100,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Wisconsin Total Nonfarm Jobs (NSA) 2007 2010 2019 2020 2021 2022
  10. 10. Average Monthly Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
  11. 11. Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Jan-90 Oct-90 Jul-91 Apr-92 Jan-93 Oct-93 Jul-94 Apr-95 Jan-96 Oct-96 Jul-97 Apr-98 Jan-99 Oct-99 Jul-00 Apr-01 Jan-02 Oct-02 Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jul-18 Apr-19 Jan-20 Oct-20 Jul-21 Unemployment Rate New North Manitowoc Co
  12. 12. Employment Reactions
  13. 13. Employment Reactions
  14. 14. Gross Domestic Product Source: BEA
  15. 15. Jobs 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 150,000 155,000 06-Jan Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Jan-21 Total U.S. Non-Farm Jobs (SA) Thousands Still down 2.1 MM Source: BLS
  16. 16. Output Recovery Source: BEA 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 Wisconsin Industry Recovery (MM real 2012 $) All industry total Construction Manufacturing Retail trade Accommodation and food services
  17. 17. Job Recovery 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Wisconsin Job Recovery Total NonFarm Construction Manufacturing Retail trade Accommodation and food services Source: CES
  18. 18. Industry Costs
  19. 19. Wages
  20. 20. Industry Wages 40% 83% 27% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Manufacturing v. Retail % Manufacturing v. Food Service Relative Industry Wages April 2011 April 2021
  21. 21. Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth Source: Bureau of Census, OEA 22 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 ( x 1000 ) Wisconsin Population and Labor Force POPULATION CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
  22. 22. Fertility Rates Source: Office of Health Informatics, Division of Public Health, Wisconsin Department of Health Services
  23. 23. Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Source: 2016 American Community Survey (ACS), US Census; sourced from IPUMS.org
  24. 24. Labor Force Participation Rate Source: 2016 American Community Survey (ACS), US Census; sourced from IPUMS.org
  25. 25. Labor Force Participation Rate by Age
  26. 26. Workforce 1,560 1,483 77 22 1,064 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Total Do not want a job now Want a job Available now Over 55 years of age Civilians not in the Labor Force Source: CPS, 12-month average thousands
  27. 27. Workforce/Jobs Balance Source: CPS, 12-month average
  28. 28. Other considerations of supply: 1. Those that are making higher wages may now not need second job 2. If wages for primary household earner have increased, may not have incremental income need -- especially with high cost of dependent care 3. Those that now have full-time work aren’t working multiple part-time jobs Worker Dearth
  29. 29. Workforce Challenge is a Macro problem Most active solutions are Micro fixes Macro v. Micro
  30. 30. • Off-shoring • Immigration • Eliminate barriers of chronically unemployed • Technology • Worker skills set must match • Buy American • Willingness to pay higher prices Four Solutions
  31. 31. Im- & Migration -16,000 -12,000 -8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wisconsin Net Migration Net Domestic Net International Total Net Source: US Census Bureau: National Population Totals and Components of Population Change: 2010-2019
  32. 32. Migration State Out of WI Into WI Net Minnesota 18,403 17,524 -879 Illinois 12,021 22,402 10,381 All US State Total 101,668 107,973 6,305 Net IL -4,076 IL and MN account for 29.9% of WI's domestic out-migration IL and MN account for 37.0% of WI's domestic in-migration Source: US Census Bureau; State-to-State Migration Flows, 2019
  33. 33. Lack of Childcare Access* 5,064,173 1,290,630 1,137,057 1,325,972 811,256 382,727 827,667 1,304,780 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Total Childcare Disruptions Unpaid Leave Paid Leave Cut Work Hours Left a Job Lost a Job Did not Look for a Job Supervised Children While Working Children Were Unable to Attend Daycare or Another Childcare Arrangement Due to the Pandemic in the Last 4 Weeks Source: US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey *Note: Categories are NOT mutually exclusive
  34. 34. There are two classes of jobs in the new age: 1. Those that are augmented by automation 2. Those that are replaced by automation Automation
  35. 35. Propensity for Automation by Occupational Group Management Financial Operations Math & Comp Arch & Engr Science Social Services Legal Ed & Training Arts Healthcare Pract & Tech Healthcare Support Protective Food Prep & Serving Building Maintenance Personal Care Sales Admin Support Farming Construction Install, Maint, & Repair Production Transport & Material Moving 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Percent of Employment Source: The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation, C.B. Frey and M.A. Osborne, September 17, 2013, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford; OES, OEA.
  36. 36. AI Skill Exposure Source: Brookings analysis of Webb (2019) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Automation v. AI Propensity Automation Propensity AI
  37. 37. Who are the Players
  38. 38. Be Careful
  39. 39. Takeaways • Economic recovery is underway • We are facing a labor Quantity challenge • Technology will continue to advance
  40. 40. Questions? D E N N I S K . W I N T E R S C h i e f E c o n o m i s t D e n n i s . W i n t e r s @ d w d . W i s c o n s i n . g o v

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