HR 2020
Brian Dickson
Senior Vice President, Professional Development
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
December 12, 2012

Society for Human Resource Management
 250,000+ HR professional members
 600 US chapters
 400 staff with HQ in Alexandria, Virginia USA
 Offices in India, UAE, China
 140,000 certified
 HR research, best practices, emerging trends
 Elevate the profession, support the professional
2

HR 2020
 A fool’s errand?
 “Recency Bias”
 Pattern Recognition
 Pattern Discontinuities
 US energy industry
 The rise of Dubai
 Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
 The more we know, the less we know
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
3

Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Innovation
Managing Change
2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
4

HR 2022 Poll ©SHRM 2012
5

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
China
India
Nigeria
Vietnam
Indonesia
Colombia
Egypt
Turkey
Brazil
Russia
South Korea
Mexico
South Africa
US
Canada
Japan
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Real GDP, average annual % change, 2012-2016.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
6

Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the three
biggest challenges facing HR executives at your
organization?
Retaining and rewarding the best employees
51%
Developing the next generation of corporate
leaders
36%
Remaining competitive in the talent
marketplace
21%
Finding employees with the increasingly
specialized skills we need
15%
Creating an employee-centric, serviceoriented HR organization
41%
2012 (n = 483)
2010 (n = 465)
20%
17%
Finding the right employees in the right
markets where we do business around the…
44%
34%
33%
Creating smooth and efficient HR processes
that ensure a good employee experience
33%
13%
12%
Breaking down cultural barriers that make it
difficult to create a truly global company
Other
52%
29%
Creating a corporate culture that attracts the
best employees to our organization
59%
11%
1%
24%
6%
Note: Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options. Respondents who answered “don’t know” were excluded from this
analysis.
7

Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the
biggest investment challenge facing organizations?
43%
Obtaining human capital and optimizing
human capital investments
47%
22%
Obtaining financial capital and optimizing
financial capital investments
29%
19%
Obtaining technology and optimizing
technological capital investments
11%
2010 (n = 449)
14%
Obtaining intellectual capital and
optimizing intellectual capital investments
Obtaining physical capital and optimizing
physical capital investments
2012 (n = 484)
12%
3%
2%
Note: n = 484. Percentages do not total 100% due to rounding.
8

Recruiting Difficulty
Compared with [previous month], have labor market conditions during [current
month], made it more or less difficult to recruit highly qualified individuals to fill those
positions that are of the greatest strategic importance to your firm, i.e., to put “A” 9
candidates into your “A” jobs?

Global Talent Supply – Stress Factors

Demographic trends / aging workforce in some key countries
 Europe, Japan, China

Suboptimal educational systems
 Many graduates lacking needed skills (US)
 Policy Distortions
 US immigration policies
 Low labor force participation rates in some countries
 Declining labor mobility in some markets
 Skill need vs. skill development cycle time mismatch
 Exploding demand for STEM skills
 BRIC nations and other emerging economies
 Global STEM deficiency
10

Global Talent Challenge
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012, Prepare for Opportunity
11

Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Innovation
Managing Change
2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
12

Technology and Innovation
 Moore’s Law

Sustained pace of technology advance
 Increasing efficiency in diffusion of innovation



Printing press = hundreds of years
Internet = decade +
Smartphones = 3 years?
 Rapid emergence of new eco-systems




Apple
Facebook
US energy reinvigoration
Dubai
13

An Age of “Creative Upheaval”
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
14

Workforce of 2020+
 Exceptional Technical Talent

Specialized, committed, globally-sourced
 Exceptional Generalists

Interdisciplinary, left & right brained, strong
communication skills
 Exceptional Leaders


The integrating force, creators of new ecosystems
Steve Jobs
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
15

Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Technology
Managing Change
2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
16

Change Acceleration
 “Change is the only Constant” (Herodotus)
 A required core competency for HR
 Strong team of internal consultants



Interdisciplinary
Business focus
Thorough knowledge of operations
 Challenge – and opportunity – for HR
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
17

HR Competencies for the Future
18

Ten years from now, which of the following competencies
do you see being most critical for the HR professional?
Business Acumen
42%
Organizational Leadership and Navigation
40%
Relationship Management
37%
Communication
35%
Critical Evaluation
30%
HR Technical Expertise and Practice
26%
Consultation
25%
Ethical Practice
Global and Cultural Effectiveness
21%
17%
Note: n = 472. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options.
19

Ten years from now, when considering Business Acumen
for HR professionals, which of the following components
(i.e., sub-competencies) will be most critical?
HR and Organizational Metrics/Analytics/Business…
45%
Knowledge of Business Operations/Logistics
41%
Strategic Agility
41%
Business Knowledge
28%
Knowledge of Government and Regulatory Guidelines
25%
Knowledge of Finance and Accounting
18%
Economic Awareness
17%
Knowledge of Labor Markets
17%
Knowledge of Technology
16%
Systems Thinking
14%
Effective Administration
11%
Knowledge of Sales and Marketing
Other
6%
1%
Note: n = 469. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options.
20

The HR Team for the Future
 Strong technical and behavioral competencies

Emphasis on analytical skills, operational knowledge,
technology fluency
 Invest in data systems, analysis, & psychometrics

More science, less art in HR
 Partner with IT

Understand impacts of technology on business

Leverage technology to transform of HR functions
 Build in-house capabilities to drive change
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
21

Thank You!
Brian Dickson
SVP, Professional Development
brian.dickson@shrm.org
www.shrm.org
22