Noemi Pace's (FAO) presentation at the Transfer Project Workshop in Arusha, Tanzania on 2nd April 2019.

1. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Direct and indirect impacts of an unconditional
cash transfer programme: Zimbabwe's Harmonized
Social Cash Transfer
Noemi Pace
Transfer Project Workshop
Arusha, April 2-4, 2019

2. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Objective of the study
• Analysis of the impact of the Zimbabwe
Harmonized Social Cash Transfer (HSCT)
programme on food security and nutrition (FSN)
after 12 months of implementation
• We disentangle the total impact of the programme
on FSN on:
- Direct impact due to an increase of purchasing power of
households
- Indirect impact mediated through an increase in agricultural
production

3. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Policy question
• Four dimensions of food security: availability of
food, access to food, utilization of food, stability
- Availability of food: supply-driven component
- Access to food: demand-driven component
• Does part of the observed impact on household
consumption in more and better quality food come
from increased own agricultural production?
• Social protection interventions, such as the HSCT,
can affect FSN playing a key role in both availability
of food and access to food

4. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Description of the program
• The HSCT is an unconditional cash transfer programme
targeted to food-poor and labor-constrained
households
• Eligibility: labor-constrained families living below the
food poverty line are selected using ZIMSTATS
household census data
• Transfer size ranges from USD 10 to 25, representing
20% of median household consumption expenditure

5. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Data
• Data based on a twelve-
month, longitudinal, non-
experimental design study
• Baseline: May-June 2013
• Follow-up: May-June 2014

6. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
From cash to Food Security and Nutrition
HSCT
programme
Food Security and
Nutrition
TOTAL IMPACT
HSCT
programme
Agricultural
production
Food Security and
Nutrition
INDIRECT IMPACT
DIRECT IMPACT
WEATHER
ANOMALIES

7. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
• Number of distinct food items consumed
• Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS): number
of groups of food items consumed (12 food groups:
cereals, roots and tubers, pulses, legumes and nuts,
meat/poultry, vegetables, fruits, eggs, fish and seafood, milk and
milk products, oil and fat, sugar and honey, miscellaneous)
• Household Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES):
based on answers to eight questions capturing a
range of food insecurity severity - from “no food
insecure” to “severely food insecure”
Measuring Food Security and Nutrition

8. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Measuring agricultural production
• Indicator of agricultural production:
- number of crops that a household grows (maize, sorghum,
groundnut, finger millet, pearl millet, roundnuts, cowpeas)
• Indicators of weather anomalies from the NASA
POWER project dataset:
- Rainfall anomalies: deviation of the current planting total
rainfall from the long-term mean at ward level, divided by
the long-run rainfall standard deviation
- Temperature anomalies: deviation of current planting mean
temperature degree from the long-term mean at ward level,
divided by the long-run temperature standard deviation

9. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Results
Analysis of total impact:
• significant increase of the number of food items
consumed, ranging between 1.3 to 1.7 with respect
to the baseline mean (increase of 13 to 16 percent)
• significant increase of the Household Dietary
Diversity Score, ranging between 0.62 to 0.72
(increase of 10 to 12 percent)
• significant impact on the Food Insecurity
Experience Scale (FIES) but only for households
with labour capacity

10. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Results
Impacts on number of food items:
• Direct impact: 95 percent of the total impact is due to
increased access to food thanks to the cash transfers
• Indirect impact: 5 percent of the total impact is due to
increased availability of food thanks to the agricultural
production
Impacts on the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS):
• Direct impact: 60 percent of the total impact is due to
increased access to food thanks to the cash transfers
• Indirect impact: 40 percent of the total impact is due to
increased availability of food thanks to the agricultural
production

11. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Conclusions
• The analysis contributes to shed light on the channels
through which a social protection programme affects
FSN
• The HSCT programme positively contributes to
household welfare not only playing a protective
function but also allowing households to invest in their
main livelihood activity
• Since some of the impacts on FSN is through own
production, further improvements can be achieved by
providing training, information and services aimed at
raising productivity and diversifying agricultural
production

12. Social Protection - From Protection to Production
Thank you!