3. 4 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 5
The VOLANTE roadmap emphasises that there are alternative, not
necessarily compatible, visions of future sustainable land use in Europe.
Under current socio-economic and policy conditions, however, none of
these visions can be achieved without the need for trade-offs. Local
Multi-functional, in particular, seems the most challenging vision to
achieve without a thorough transformation in society and decision-
making processes, underpinned by individual behavioural change. Best
Land in Europe would supply the greatest quantity of ecosystem services
on a continental scale, but remote rural areas would struggle to support
local communities unless land use and economic activities were
restructured, for example by moving away from a dependence on
agriculture to new rural businesses that require new infrastructure.
Regional Connected would require strong regional governance and
regulation and a broad acceptance of this by society. Despite major
contrasts between the three VOLANTE visions, there are important
similarities which highlight the need for bold and coordinated change in
European land use.
Moving towards the visions requires targeted policy intervention that
takes account of the diverse regional contexts across Europe and which
balances trade-offs in a transparent and well-informed way. To be
effective and relevant, such policies also require cross-sectoral strategies
for land use and management that depart from the traditional focus on
sectoral policy. The incentive for such strategies is that European land
resources must be used more efficiently, providing a wider range of
benefits, including a better environment, enhanced socio-economic
wellbeing, and ultimately a more equitable European society.
1. What is the VOLANTE roadmap?
This document sets out a roadmap to a future Europe that manages its
land better to achieve several societal and environmental goals. In a
Europe facing many challenges and changing aspirations, the roadmap
explores alternative visions of future sustainable land use, and ways in
which various pathways can create these futures. These visions of a
future Europe are based on the views of a range of stakeholders as well
as on established targets of European policy. The roadmap seeks to
guide decision makers, land managers and European citizens in
achieving sustainable land resource management within an equitable
European society. It explores where we want to go and what we need to
do to get there. The roadmap is a product of the FP7-funded VOLANTE
project and is supported by further documentation available at www.
volante-project.eu.
Why does Europe need a land use vision?
The landscapes of Europe have changed rapidly over the last few
decades, with profound changes in the ways we use the land to support
a growing, and increasingly affluent and urban population. The past
50 years have seen significant and unprecedented human impacts on
our landscapes and we have now entered a critical decision space: a
window of several decades within which it is still possible to avoid
crossing planetary boundaries. Current trends are leading to
a polarisation of land functions in Europe, a greening of marginal
agricultural land, and a displacement of food production to other
regions in the world. A balanced land use vision is needed in order to
focus on desired outcomes, and on the policy instruments that can
influence the delivery of those outcomes, rather than a wait-and-see
strategy of reacting to external developments.
What are the main challenges for land resource management
in Europe?
Land use change varies across European territory in ways that are
determined by diverse socio-economic and biophysical conditions.
There is clear geographic variation in the number of agricultural land
abandonment hotspots and in trends in cropland expansion and forest
dynamics (Figure 1). It is likely that these trends will continue into the
near future. Reallocation of land use and the further concentration,
specialisation and intensification of agriculture are all likely to increase
as well. Agricultural land abandonment can provide opportunities for
the re-establishment of natural areas through re-wilding and other
ecological restoration processes. But these changes need to be carefully
implemented and acceptable to local communities. Forests are
expanding on land that is no longer used for agriculture. There is a clear
challenge, however, in balancing demands for the intensification of
forest land use with the aim of setting aside larger protected forest
areas.
At the same time there is an increasing demand in some regions for
urban development and the establishment of industrial zones, leading
to urban sprawl and a reorientation of the urban-rural relationship. This
challenges metropolitan areas to use precious land resources
sustainably. In other regions, shrinking cities and the abandonment of
remote areas diminish the capacity of land systems to support local
communities. Current trends in biodiversity loss, pollution and soil
degradation are fundamentally related to land management, which
presents a considerable additional challenge to land managers and
decision makers. Major challenges are also posed by external – and
4. 6 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 7
2. Where are we trying to get to?
Figure 2 | Sustainable land management involves the careful balance of a wide range of
demands, within a complex context of multilateral agreements and EU policy.
The Brundtland report (1987) and the Rio
Declaration on Environment and Development
(1992) provided explicit EU and global
acknowledgement of the need for
sustainable development that meets
present needs without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs. Within the context of
land use, this implies managing
natural capital to ensure the
continued provision of ecosystem
services while minimising trade-offs.
A wide range of international
commitments, EU policy strategies
and directives are aimed at ensuring
plentiful biomass production (food,
timber and energy) without degrading
land, polluting air, soil and water, or
harming biodiversity (Figure 2). At the
same time, land use has an important role to
play in regulating the climate through
land-based mitigation of, and adaptation to,
climate change by providing nature-based
solutions such as cooling and flood prevention. These
demands need to be balanced without limiting access to
open space or threatening cultural heritage and a sense of
place, and without exporting negative externalities to other parts of
the world.
largely unpredictable – drivers of change such as the global market,
political conditions at local to global levels, and climate change.
Meanwhile, land is increasingly used for multiple functions that shift
according to changing societal demands. The traditional needs of
providing food, fibre and timber are changing, with land now expected
to provide a wider range of ecosystem services, from energy production
and carbon sequestration to amenity and cultural values.
Figure 1 | Hotspots (upper/lower decile) of changes in cropland extent (left) and forest extent (right) 1990 - 2006.
(VOLANTE assessment of Hotspots of land use transitions in Europe)
5. 8 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 9
3. What could this Europe look like?
This Europe would need to greatly increase its resource use efficiency
and reduce its ecological footprint, both within and outside Europe,
through better governance, integrated land use policies, and by
adopting appropriate technology. It would need to deal with the
growing demands on land to provide a wide range of services, requiring
careful land use planning and management. Rural areas will provide
many of these services, and will have an important role to play in
supporting sustainable development in Europe. All of this requires bold
and coordinated change in European land use and its management.
The VOLANTE visions provide evidence suggesting that the best way of
achieving these aspirations is through multifunctional landscapes that
support as many land functions as possible (i.e. the capacity of the land
to deliver goods and services). There are, however, alternative visions of
what‘multifunctional’means in practice that differ in the scale on which
services are delivered: local, regional or EU-wide. The VOLANTE project
used a participatory stakeholder process to explore the structure and
consequences of these alternatives leading to three consolidated
visions – Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local
Multifunctional – which are outlined below. Further details about the
visions are available at www.volante-project.eu.
Best Land in Europe
Optimal use of land is crucial to ensuring maximum production of food and other natural
products. Land across the EU is matched to the most appropriate use.
A Europe in a globalised world with intensive movement of products, money and people
and good accessibility linking distant urban centres. Political collaboration exists between
and beyond the EU Member States. There is intense global competition for resources
requiring more efficient land use to meet society’s needs. Across the EU, land provides for
multiple functions, in a well-planned, well-ordered and zoned use of space. Some land is
used for multiple purposes. Other land is better suited to just one function, leading to
specialisation.
Regional Connected
Society’s needs are met regionally in a coherent relationship between people and their
resources. In a non-globalised economy, there is a move away from regional specialisation.
A Europe that has a greater appreciation of the resources that are available regionally and
of the value of trying to live without external inputs, with the help of technological
developments. Serving the regional population and keeping regional coherence is a key
priority. This reduces the need for transportation and its negative effects. Territorial
cohesion at the regional scale does not isolate communities or close borders, but creates
local autonomy, more resilience, more involvement by the population, and more
democracy.
Local Multifunctional
Land functions are localised in small areas based on innovative approaches to living, working
and recreation. There is high diversity in goods and services, land use and society.
A Europe that incorporates multi-functionality locally, without distinct sectoral land use
areas (for agriculture, settlement, nature conservation, etc.) This generates multiple
ecosystem services everywhere. Localised thinking and decision-making is supported by
a radical shift in behaviour and‘bottom-up’politics. Rural areas flourish by having a strong
green economy where biodiversity is improved through a clean environment and green
infrastructure. There is a huge reduction in‘food miles’as products are grown and
consumed locally. Technology facilitates the sustainable management of natural
resources.
6. 10 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 11
4. How could we get there?
Current trends will not lead to the visions outlined above, and especially
not to the multi-functionality that they aspire to. So what can we do to
achieve these visions? The scientific evidence supports a number of key
trends. In VOLANTE we developed a framework that links plausible
visions of future land use to simulations of future land use changes,
based on four scenarios of global developments and eleven policy
alternatives. While the visions represent normative views on preferred
developments, the scenarios created by a series of global and European
simulation models provide a description of likely developments in the
near future based on projections of the main driving factors of land use
change. The policy options indicate possible interventions that may
steer the simulated developments closer to the visions. These two
fundamentally different approaches to exploring the future of land use
in Europe were brought together in the VOLANTE project by identifying
pathways. Pathways are those combinations of scenarios and policy
options that lead to land use that corresponds as closely as possible to
the defined visions (Figure 3). In so doing, pathways reconcile
descriptive scenarios and normative visions.
When applying the framework, we identified five pathways to the vision
Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but
no pathways to the vision Local Multifunctional. The two policy
alternatives that were pathways to Best Land in Europe were also
pathways to Regional Connected. None of the pathways were
completely in agreement with any of the visions.
In general, all of the identified pathways foresee land use that is
regulated with respect to changes in land use and management
intensity. The global context, with its scenarios of future development,
can either facilitate or constrain the desired visions. For example,
international trade is relevant to multi-functionality at the landscape
level: increasing international trade makes it more difficult to achieve
local multi-functionality. Social networks are important for knowledge
exchange about new land uses and improving the connectivity of social
networks increases the rate of knowledge diffusion and therefore land
use change. The capacity of individual land managers to stimulate
multi-functionality affects the overall potential for multi-functional
landscapes, which implies that education and training of land managers
could support this goal. At the same time, a variety of personalities and
behaviour among land managers increases the diversity of services
supplied, which is in the interests of multi-functionality. Change towards
the visions is stimulated when land users are more sensitive to the gap
between supply and demand in relation to ecosystem services.
Multifunctional and diverse local landscapes require small-scale land
use which is supported by land users who are more willing to balance
current land use practices with benefits from alternative services from
the land system. The actions required to achieve each vision are
summarised in Table 1.
Commonalities in governance opportunities
All of the visions require resource efficiency, increased delivery of
services from rural land, and multi-functionality.
For all three visions, several win-win actions can be identified that would
enhance sustainable land management. A major prerequisite is that
society is willing to embrace different governance structures with strong
land use planning policy, and is willing and able to reallocate budgets,
Figure 3 | VOLANTE framework of scenarios and pathways to visions
leading to landscapes that will in some cases be quite different from
those of today. To realise long-term visions, it is important that
governments are willing to provide incentives and support for better
land use management. The private and public sector can contribute by
establishing appropriate mechanisms to support better management of
natural capital and mainstream nature-based solutions. Strong land use
planning is needed to reverse the progress of urban sprawl, by
exploiting opportunities to redevelop urban brownfield sites, for
instance. For all the visions, community engagement in equitable
decision-making would be crucial for success. In any case there is a clear
need for targeted interventions in marginal and remote rural areas,
which involves either reversing abandonment or managing a transition
to a new landscape structure. As a consequence, the role of the different
governance levels (from individual to EU) will change in relation to land
use and land management, as summarised in Table 2.
7. 12 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 13
Table 1 | Actions required to achieve the visions
ACTIONS
Governance Policy & planning Economy & investment in infrastructure
and technology
Society Management
Best Land in Europe Political collaboration between and beyond the
EU Member States and international trade
-- Create planning policy to decide on the best locations for land use
and land functions across scales;
-- Support managed abandonment or re-structuring in marginal and/
or remote rural areas though financial incentives and knowledge
creation, e.g. re-wilding, C storage, wood production, maintaining
cultural landscapes for tourism;
-- Plan to reverse urban sprawl and encourage compact city
development;
-- Establish appropriate mechanisms to support payments for
ecosystem services, better manage natural capital and mainstream
nature-based solutions
-- Implement appropriate market mechanisms
to encourage specialisation of land use;
-- Identify alternative land uses in rural areas
leading to new job opportunities;
-- Reduce the ecological footprint caused by
housing;
-- Protect good quality agricultural land from
urban development;
-- Invest in connectivity and mobility across
Europe through better infrastructure and
transport technology
-- Embrace the need to re-structure Europe’s
landscapes to obtain maximum benefits from
the land;
-- Accept the re-evaluation and use of marginal
and remote rural areas, e.g. accepting the
negative impacts of rewilding
-- Intensify production in highly productive
agricultural areas;
-- Make Natura2000 an ecologically
coherent network, with conservation
regulation being weakened elsewhere to
support other land use functions
Regional Connected Strong regional government and a stable
governance structure that promotes
collaboration between regions
-- Support regional initiatives, based on strong but flexible and
coherent land use planning that encourages the supply of multiple
services at the regional level;
-- A move away from specialisation to achieve regional self-sufficiency
across multiple services;
-- Establish appropriate mechanisms to support better management
of natural capital and mainstream nature-based solutions
-- Invest (public and private) in infrastructure,
technology and social cohesion to increase
connectivity within region;
-- Regulate trade between regions and
internationally;
-- Invest in EU energy grid
-- Embrace major lifestyle changes leading to
changes in regional landscapes, e.g. regional
food consumption, compact urban living, a
shift to public transport, enhancing regional
identity;
-- Be willing and able to pay for the cost of these
changes
-- Change agricultural practices to achieve
self-sufficiency in regional food
production, e.g. develop new production
methods, regionally focused education
and training in new and improved
practices, and encourage knowledge
exchange between land users
Local Multifunctional Local decision-making supported by a radical
shift in behaviour and‘bottom-up’governance
-- Promote the upscaling of grass-roots initiatives through incentives
and by removing barriers to success that leads to best practices;
-- Establish appropriate mechanisms to support better management
of natural capital and mainstream nature-based solutions
-- Invest in, and experiment with, new
technologies;
-- Regulate international trade to encourage
local consumption and local self-sufficiency;
-- Develop and mainstream smart technology,
e.g. district heating, urban agriculture,
renewable energy;
-- Invest in EU energy grid
-- Embrace major lifestyle changes in support of
a multi-functional world;
-- Be willing and able to pay for the cost of
multi-functionality, e.g. producing food locally
may be more expensive under sub-optimal
conditions;
-- Reconsider consumption patterns (diet,
seasonal food, waste reduction)
-- Change agricultural practices to achieve
self-sufficiency in local food production,
e.g. development of new production
methods, training in new and improved
practices, encouraging knowledge
exchange between land users;
-- Move away from specialisation to achieve
local self-sufficiency across multiple
services
8. The Volante Roadmap | 1514 |
Table 2 | Role of the different governance levels required to achieve the visions
ACTIONS
Individual Community Region EU
Best Land
in Europe
Less empowerment than
today; land use management
is automatically decided by
larger-scale priorities at
regional and EU level.
In some rural areas,
community power is lost as a
necessary trade-off to ensure
the‘vision as a whole’; in
others, new communities
evolve with power sharing
and a share in decision-
making.
Acts as a promoter of the
wider European ethos on
land use. Has considerable
power but it mainly depends
on EU policy and legislation.
Maintains a strong overall
position on the long-term
influence of land use issues.
Democratically defines and
locates the‘best land’areas
and promotes multi-
functionality and nature in
other areas.
Regional
Connected
Less influence on land use
management than today;
planning is democratically
decided mainly at regional
level, and even includes
management of land.
Local communities will have
some influence but mainly in
a consultative capacity in
relation to the higher
regional governance level.
Becomes stronger and in
many ways more dominant
in day-to-day life. Regional
parliaments provide much of
the policy and legislation.
Plays a role in promoting
regional coherence and
togetherness, as well as
supporting innovation and
the uptake of sustainable
development solutions; most
power is devolved to the
regional level, though.
Local
Multifunctional
Considerably more influence
on land governance than
today. All citizens are seen as
stakeholders, not just
land-owners.
Community empowerment is
strengthened considerably;
local knowledge is given
high priority and decision-
making on land use issues is
largely overseen by the
community.
Regional governance is
designed to empower,
educate and advise local
communities on land use
issues but also takes a lead
role in biodiversity
conservation (e.g. to create
nature corridors).
Provides supervision and
encouragement for local
communities to govern more
themselves; otherwise, has a
more hands-off approach to
land use.
9. The Volante Roadmap | 1716 |
5. The trade-offs
Best Land
in Europe
While carbon stocks and to a certain extent biodiversity increase within this vision, some productive forest and agricultural
land will be taken out of conventional use. This leads to sustainable intensification of agriculture on the most suitable land,
but abandonment of more extensive land use in marginal areas. Of the three, this vision provides the largest total supply of
ecosystem services for Europe, but some remote rural areas may struggle to support local communities unless land use and
economic activities are restructured. This could include, for example, a move away from depending on agriculture to new
rural businesses that require infrastructural support.
Regional
Connected
The economic potential of land use in Europe underlies the main trade-offs in this vision. Within Europe this arises from
declines in the shadow value of agricultural land and limited climate change mitigation potential. Furthermore, there are
considerable consequences for land use outside of Europe, including cropland displacement to Africa, Latin-America and the
Pacific OECD regions, and increased timber imports. The need to intensify agricultural and forestry production everywhere
leads to negative impacts on nature protection. The implication of this is a need for strong regulatory and incentive-based
regional policy in order to minimise negative outcomes.
Local
Multifunctional
Scenario and modelling analysis suggests that it is extremely difficult to realise this vision because current policy was not
designed with this vision in mind. Local multi-functionality means diversifying land-use, increasing self-sufficiency, creating a
carbon-neutral economy and avoiding relocating land use activities overseas. Current European policy is unlikely to achieve
these goals, so this vision would require a substantial transformation of political and societal systems underpinned by
individual, behavioural change. This may still be possible, but it is hard to envisage a feasible route to fulfilling such
expectations at present.
None of the three visions can be achieved completely without the need for trade-offs. This leads to choices about which of the conditions to relax
within the visions so as to minimise the need for trade-offs.
10. 18 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 19
6. What are the policy implications?
Commonalities in policy implications
Not all of the visions apply equally well to all parts of Europe. For
example, the Local Multifunctional vision is difficult to implement in
regions where specialised or industrial agriculture is dominant, but
could be suitable for re-invigorating remote rural areas. This suggests
that EU policy support should be tailored to regional conditions, and
should aim to mitigate the negative consequences of the visions. Land
use planning is not an EU competence, although land use development
is largely determined by a range of EU sectoral policies. Hence, a priority
action in policy should be to foster cross-sectoral strategies that achieve
new images of land use in the future. Creative out-of-the-box thinking is
needed to provide innovative combinations of sectoral policy targets,
and mould a sustainable land use future in which ad-hoc external
developments are responded to proactively rather than reactively.
A common currency in defining such policy horizons is the ecosystem
services concept, including a combination of monetary and non-
monetary values in support of human wellbeing. Moreover, sustainable
intensification and overall efficiency can improve the connectivity of all
areas, including natural areas. This is because less land is needed for
food production, leaving land available for other purposes.
Best Land
in Europe
There are opportunities for this vision in adapting the existing Rural Development policy, Greening of the CAP and Climate
mitigation & adaptation policies. The health effects of concentrated services and green corridors may support this vision too.
Moreover, agricultural technology is already moving towards larger, more efficient machinery and management practices
suited to the intensively used regions, whereas forestry already shows trends towards more production in the north. Land
abandonment is already happening in many parts of Europe, and the practice of rewilding – which would meet many of the
vision’s objectives – has recently gained resonance. Unlike pure non-intervention areas with no access for the public (e.g.
Lady Park Wood in the UK and Białowieża in Poland/Belarus), rewilding could still support recreational services in most
places.
Regional
Connected
Demands for denser cities and limiting urban sprawl are common in EU member states, but achieving this through planning
policy is context-specific. Restrictions on green belt development means planners are having to rethink ways of housing
people in cities. Current road development trends are in line with the connection aspect of this vision. Sustainable agriculture
does not necessarily mean low yields – there are several technologies such as precision farming that can potentially achieve
high yields while reducing environmental impact. Agri-environmental schemes are already well established in most EU
countries. Forest area is increasing in many EU countries, mainly as a result of government support through grants and the
abandonment of agricultural land. Many opportunities for nature are available; small gains (roofs, gardens, abandoned
industrial sites, road verges) can all make a difference. The EU is already supporting green infrastructure and nature-based
solutions. Strong support for this vision would also require policy to improve rural-urban connectivity.
Local
Multifunctional
Support from the EU’s Rural Development Funds could be used to support urban agriculture and a move towards sustainable
provisioning services (fuelwood, local food). Long waiting lists for urban allotments in many towns confirm the current trends
toward local food production. In urban areas a small but growing trend of greening can be observed, such as green roofs.
Marginal land is already being afforested, supported through grant schemes. Although agroforestry has been slow to
develop in Europe, it has a long history and new schemes could be initiated. In some countries coppice woodland is already
being restored, and mushroom harvesting is profitable too. Rural Development initiatives are already in place, often with EU
funding. Some rural areas are leading the way and others could learn from them. Increasingly, agricultural colleges are
teaching farm diversification in anticipation of the need to manage rural areas in different ways.
11. 20 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe The Volante Roadmap | 21
7. What should happen next?
Although society is often aware of the need for trade-offs in land use
planning, the consequences of alternative land use futures are difficult
to imagine. Traditional assessment methods are limited in their capacity
to simulate visions that firmly depart from existing land use patterns,
and the current European model has difficulty in accommodating local
multi-functionality. Furthermore, land use governance struggles to
achieve multi-functionality since policy strategies focus on sectoral
aims. Reaching any of these visions will require policy intervention
based on new, integrated policy approaches in support of multiple land
use functions. The VOLANTE roadmap demonstrates that:
1. A general consensus is emerging around the notions of multi-functionality on different
geographic scales, resource efficiency and the provision of services in rural areas.
2. Despite major contrasts between the three VOLANTE visions, there are important
similarities that highlight the need for bold and coordinated change in European land use.
3. To achieve the visions along robust pathways we need a broader range of land use policy
options and governance structures that balance trade-offs in a transparent and well-
informed way.
4. To be effective and relevant, land use policy needs to be sensitive to regional differences
across Europe, and based on
cross-sectoral strategies that move away from the traditional sectoral policy focus.
5. Under these preconditions land use management can offer huge opportunities for society
and promote socio-economic wellbeing and environmental improvement.
12. 22 |Towards Sustainable Land Resource Management in Europe
The VOLANTE Roadmap is supported by an
informative explanatory document: VOLANTE
Roadmap – The Scientific Basis, and a large body
of background information and
documentation (Figure 4 The VOLANTE
Roadmap and its supporting information). The
VOLANTE Roadmap – The Scientific Basis is also
available as an interactive internet-based file
at www.volante-project.eu, including access to
all supporting information. References (and
hyper-links) in the digital explanatory
document refer to the next layer supporting
the Roadmap itself: Syntheses of the VOLANTE
research activities in a large number of Fact
Sheets. Together with scientific papers and
project deliverables, these Fact Sheets provide
the scientific evidence in support of the
VOLANTE roadmap.
8. Structure of the supporting
documentation
Figure 4 The VOLANTE Roadmap and its supporting information
13. Visions of future land use in Europe
Stakeholder visions for 2040
Do you miss the brochure Visions of
future land use in Europe?
You can find a digital version at
www.volante-project.eu » documents »
brochures.
www.volante-project.eu
