2. 2Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
Reimagining an automaker’s business “as usual”
From partner collaboration to the ownership market, automakers are being driven towards a business “unusual” mindset as
they respond to consumer trends such as always-on digital natives and the sharing economy.3
FIGURE01
1
Deloitte. “The Internet of Things Moves In.” http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/files/2015/08/Internet-of-things-GMCS_Infographic-2015.pdf.
2
Speaking at The Code Conference, May 2015. Mobile World Live. “Apple Says Car Is the ‘Ultimate Mobile Device.’” http://www.mobileworldlive.com/apple-says-car-ultimate-mo-
bile-device.
3
IBM. Digital Disruption and the Future of the Automotive Industry. https://www.ibm.com/multimedia/portal/H752407R29967B14/IBMCAI-Digital-disruption-in-automotive.pdf.
Business unusual
Market development and
diversification
Non-traditional
partner collaboration
Shrink
development
times
Alternative
to ownership
markets
New retail
formats
The sharing
economy
Always connected
digital natives
Lifetime
customer value
Business as usual
Market penetration,
product development
Business as
usual R&D
Aspiration
to own cars
Engineering
heritage
Growth market
land and expand
Transactional
one-time sales
Sustainability
of dealerships
Services
businesses
Multimodal
experimentation
Ten years from now, cars will be
unrecognizable. Technological ad-
vancements, government mandates,
consumer trends, and emerging mar-
kets will continue to drive evolution
in the auto industry.
Indeed, our interconnected lives and
need for immediate information and
sharing of content are pushing auto-
motive manufacturers to rethink how
they create cars. From a technology
perspective, our smartphones play the
biggest role in development with 72
percent of smartphone users finding
The auto industry
is poised for more
change in the next
five-to-ten years
than it’s seen in the
past 50.
– Mary Barra,
CEO of General Motors2
value in a connected vehicle solution,
particularly when it comes to safety,
traffic, weather, navigation, mainte-
nance, access, and entertainment1
.
But with the rapid rate of technological
advancements, automotive manufac-
turers are facing the nearly impossi-
ble challenge of creating innovative
solutions and integrating them quickly
(see Figure 1). By understanding how
technologies and manufacturing will
change, these organizations can deter-
mine where future business opportuni-
ties can be utilized.
3. 3Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
The future evolution and simultaneous
convergence of powertrain technolo-
gies, lightweight materials, advances
in connected vehicles, shifts in mobility
preferences, and the emergence of
autonomous vehicles are the most
effective growth strategies to broaden
the automotive industry’s focus beyond
just products. Undoubtedly, there will
be contrast by regions and demograph-
ics of inhabitants pertaining to needs
and use, but the overarching trend is
clear: The automotive future stems from
tech-enabled convenience, safety,
and efficiency.
Convenience
Vehicle lifecycles in the automotive
industry used to require a five-year
process — from a new model’s initial
concept phase to it being displayed in
a showroom for consumer purchase.
Through automation of the design with
computer-aided design (CAD), opti-
mized timing and tracking of approvals,
and parts and manufacturing with
computer-aided manufacturing (CAM),
the total process has been reduced to
three years. That process is helped fur-
ther by automation through a Product
Life Management software (PLM) – an
information management system that
details a product’s lifecycle from its
inception and engineering, through its
design and manufacturing, up until its
service and disposal.
Yet, even with these new tools, shaving
two years off the process is not fast
enough to be able to keep up with
technology, government regulations,
and consumer demands. Smartphones,
for example, average an upgrade every
24 months. The battle over in-vehicle
experiences between original equip-
ment manufacturers (OEMs) and
smartphones will be for control of the
hardware and the ability to make in-car
features adaptable enough to survive
rapid technology shifts in the market.
Besides wheels, what does a car offer
that a smartphone doesn’t? There are
already many existing apps that offer
navigation, e-commerce, and entertain-
ment. And electronics systems contrib-
ute to more than 90% of innovations
and new features brought forth in new
car models.4
But that’s not enough.
Current disruption in the automotive
market is filled with new-age consumer
expectations and competition to not
just deliver a good driving experience,
but also an enhanced experience that
provides important safety and naviga-
tion features. What has been an indus-
try for more than 100 years creating
and introducing new advancements in
the pursuit of a better driving experi-
ence, now has been busily transforming
itself into consumer connectivity and
improved experiences.
Disruption in
the auto industry:
It’s time to embrace
change.
– Carlos Ghosn,
CEO of Renault-Nissan
Alliance5
4
PwC’s Strategy&. Automotive Perspective. http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/reports/automotive-trends-2015.
5
Keynote speech at the opening of the 2016 New York International Auto Show. “Disruption in the Auto Industry: It’s Time to Embrace the Change.” http://nissannews.com/en-US/
nissan/usa/channels/Executive-Speeches/releases/disruption-in-the-auto-industry-it-s-time-to-embrace-the-change.
4. 4Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
Furthermore, biometric access will
likely soon be provided with unique
fingerprint or retina scan, much like
cell phones are unlocked today. MIT
is currently developing tattoos that will
connect with mobile devices to control
the devices or communicate data with
other devices via near-field technology.
By using your connected technology,
many types of convenient preferences
– such as seat settings, climate set-
tings, music preferences, and previous
destinations – may be set in the car as
you enter and even adapt across any
car (whether it’s yours, your friend’s, or
an on-demand ride).
In addition, a connected vehicle tells
you the price of gas, provides you the
weather report, navigates directions, al-
lows you to make calls, sends voice-re-
cited text messages, accesses a
variety of music and media options, and
reports traffic issues. The future gets
a little closer each day as connected
vehicles and the utilization of smart-
phones allow cars to communicate
through multiple options – like Wi-Fi,
Bluetooth, vehicle-to-vehicle,
and vehicle-to-business sources – for
information from friends, marketing
services, or retailers that want to better
inform and serve consumers’ “in the
moment” experiences.
More so, this level of progress means
that in just a few short years there will
be an influx of self-driving capabilities
and ultimately an autonomous transpor-
tation experience. As with connected
technology, self-driving technology is
challenging the traditional automotive
manufacturer to keep up with constant
new driving innovations. And smart cars
(connected and autonomous vehicles)
are being developed by more than 30
different corporations, not all of which
are traditional car manufacturers. The
leaders among the automotive compa-
nies considered to be at the forefront of
connectivity, self-driving, and autono-
mous technology are BMW, Daimler,
GM, and Tesla.7
When we think of ourselves as a mobility
company, it comes back to our vision of
making people’s lives better by changing
the way the world moves.
– Mark Fields,
CEO of Ford Motor Company6
6
Deloitte. “Examining the Evolving Mobility Ecosystem.” http://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/examining-the-evolving-mobility-ecosystem.html.
7
KPMG. “Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015.” http://docplayer.net/6734787-Kpmg-s-global-automotive-executive-survey.html.
5. 5Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
In response, tech giants like Google,
Microsoft, Apple, Nauto, nuTonomy,
comma.ai – alongside startups like Re-
moto, navdy, TriLumina, PathSense, Em,
and Amprus – are all targeting specific
pieces of automotive components and
disrupting an OEM’s traditional way of
doing things (see Figure 2).
The idea that there’s some intelligence
embedded there in a vehicle is going to
be a big idea.
– James Kuffner,
Chief Technology Officer at Toyota Research Institute8
8
Automotive News. “2016 Car Management Briefing Seminars.” http://www.autonews.com/article/20160803/OEM06/160809910?template=print.
Unbundling the automobile
A combination of tech giants, startups, and other high-tech companies are tackling various components of the automobile in
an effort to better users’ driving experiences.
FIGURE02
Battery Storage
Amprius, Boston-Power,
Envia, QuantumScape,
SolidEnergy
Connected Car
Airbiquity, AutoBot,
Automatic, Automile,
CarIQ, CarVi, Dash,
Metromile, Mojio,
Remoto, Truvolo, Zubie
Driver Safety
Augary, CelluDrive,
Exploride, HeadsUP!,
Lytx, Navdy, SmartDrive,
Zendrive
V2V/V2X
Communication
Autotalks, Cohda Wireless,
Kymeta, RoboCV, Savari,
TTTech, Veniam
ADAS/Car
Automation
AdasWorks, Drive.ai,
Comma.ai, Nauto,
nuTonomy, Oxbotica,
ZMP, Zoox
Auto Repair
Autobutler.dk, Carz,
ClickMechanic, Fayette
Fabrication, HONK,
Openbay, Pitstop,
RepairPal, Urgent.ly,
YourMechanic
Navigation/
Mapping
BirdsEye, INRIX,
Mapkin, MapmyIndia,
Navmii, PathSense,
Swift Navigation
Vehicle
Cybersecurity
Argus Cyber Security,
Karamba Security,
Visual Threat
Engine
Efficiency
ACAT Global, Achates Power,
Agility, EcoMotors, ePower,
Pinnacle Engines, Yan Engines
Sensor Hardware
LeddarTech, Phantom
Intelligence, Quanergy,
TriLumina
Tires
Aperia Technologies,
DMACK, LDL Technology
Source: CB Insights.
6. 6Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
Speaking of which, the simple manu-
facturing of a vehicle is having its own
disruption. New robot technologies,
along with machines and sensors on
assembly lines, are innovating cur-
rent processes, while analytics and
breakthroughs in overall quality are
contributing to reduced costs and
greater efficiencies. In addition, current
gas-driven vehicles require many parts
in the assembly process and operation,
while newer technology like electric
and fuel-cell require up to one-third the
number of parts, and components are
more integrated and less mechanical.
This results in lower barriers to entry for
new, non-traditional automotive manu-
facturers establishing their own supply
chains and large assembly lines.
When it comes to innovation opportu-
nities, OEMs will need to collaborate
more with these modern tech compa-
nies and welcome novel ways of man-
ufacturing. Choosing the right partners
will be crucial as they look to transform
and advance their research and devel-
opment beyond current solutions
and limitations.
Safety
The worldwide connected vehicle
market stood at $37.5 billion in 2015,
and is expected to increase to $151.8
billion in 2020.9
New revenue opportu-
nities come from the Internet of Things
(IoT) and its data connectivity services
— consumers’ behaviors, consumers’
preferences, apps, mobility services,
and upgrades can all provide profitability
in the future for the auto industry.
But all of this desire for convenience
and instant information comes with the
price of allowing technology to fully
access the data in our lives — where we
have been, what we have purchased,
things we have liked on social plat-
forms, friends, our bank/credit balances,
products we use, or references to what
our current mood is. The good news is
that people seem more and more will-
ing to allow the collection of data to be
used if it makes things easier for them.
There is, of course, an ongoing con-
cern with cybersecurity as cars have
increasing technology integrated into
them – a concern that was recently
validated by Tencent with their hack
of a Tesla S.10
Seventy-five percent of
auto executives admit they do not have
a strategy in place in case their vehicles
are hacked, while 40 percent of vehicle
owners desire the most innovative
safety features, such as Blind Spot,
Forward Collision, Adaptive Cruise,
Lane Departure Warning, and Automat-
ic Braking, when considering points in
making decisions about a purchase.11,12
Today, sophisticated onboard platforms
are now transforming large amounts
of collected data into information that
helps the technology and its driver
be aware of the surroundings. This
information from various data sources
appears clearly in front of you even in
decreased visibility conditions like rain,
fog, or low light situations.
9
GSMA. “Transforming the Connected Car Market.” http://www.gsma.com/connectedliving/the-evolving-connected-car-market/.
10
Wired. “Tesla Responds to Chinese Hack with a Major Security Upgrade.” https://www.wired.com/2016/09/tesla-responds-chinese-hack-major-security-upgrade/.
11
McKinsey & Company. “How Carmakers Can Compete for the Connected Consumer.” http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/how-carmak-
ers-can-compete-for-the-connected-consumer.
12
RougeWave. Survey by Ponemon Institute. “Car Cybersecurity: What Do the Automakers Really Think?” http://www.roguewave.com/getattachment/7771decd-9c2d-4853-b3f5-f7d-
87d460afa/car-cybersecurity-what-automakers-really-think?sitename=RogueWave.
The good news is
that people seem
more and more
willing to allow
the collection of
data to be used if
it makes things
easier for them.
7. 7Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
The heads-up-display (HUD), which
has been around for a while, is now
being researched and developed as a
high-tech solution, and is beginning to
reach into the realm of the high-resolu-
tion display. HUD (which is essentially
augmented reality) will actually be able
to display your speed, objects on the
road or in your blind spot, clear passing
lanes nearby, and recommended stop-
ping distances all on the windshield
glass, while allowing the driver to re-
main focused on the road ahead. A few
models already have an HUD option,
but the feature will be integrated into
mainstream vehicles over the next few
years as automakers work to add more
functional information to their displays.
Furthermore, improved GPS in smart-
phones and cars means that location
services will only get more accurate,
thereby improving travel time estimates
and allowing for better navigation
where multiple exits/turns are possible.
And proximity does not stop there.
Safety in cars that can communicate
with each other and with the world at
large will not only make travel more
efficient, but also more connected
and secure. Self-driving options like
auto-braking, lane-change avoidance,
and auto parallel parking are just the
tip of the iceberg. As humans become
more comfortable with letting cars
drive themselves and make decisions,
major traffic issues in main cities stand
to decrease.
The connected car will also be able to
monitor passengers’ health. Think of
astronauts who are hundreds of thou-
sands of miles away, but have NASA
effectively reading and monitoring their
vital signs. Future steering wheels and
seats will be able to monitor a number
of vital signs, as well. For example, a car
could call a paramedic or take someone
to a hospital when vital signs detect
someone having a heart attack or stroke,
going into labor, or having a seizure, and
can even alert the driver to sleepiness/
distracted driving – or simply not allow
the car to start if the driver is drunk.
These driver monitoring systems are
currently in concept or testing phases
at Nissan, Audi, Ford, Mercedes, major
universities, and app developers, and
will be introduced into the market in as
little as one to two years.
We are witnessing
a revolution in auto
technology that has
the potential to save
thousands of lives.
– Anthony Foxx,
U.S. Transportation
Secretary13
13
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “U.S. DOT to Host Public Meetings on Safe Operation of Automated Vehicles.” http://www.nhtsa.gov/About-NHTSA/Press-Releases/
nhtsa_meetings_automated_vehicles_03112016.
8. 8Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
Efficiency
Most of us hear “efficiency” and think
about reducing pollution. Hybrid, plug-
in hybrid, electric, and fuel-cell vehicles
have been around for years. And with
continued technological advancements,
these power sources (at first too ex-
pensive to get much real consideration)
have become more mainstream.
After a four-year study, researchers at
MIT concluded that electric vehicles
on the market today could replace 90
percent of the cars used in the U.S.14
These vehicles would only need to be
charged once a day at home or work
to meet the travel distances required
by consumers, and could reduce 30
percent of greenhouse gas emissions.
Indeed, manufacturers like Tesla are
generating interest in using electric
power sources as a way to lower emis-
sions – pairing this with the fact that
electric vehicles generate less noise
while still having substantial power,
even when compared to gas engines.
The viability and speed of adoption are
mainly hanging on consumers’ percep-
tions of their driving habits and distan-
ces, lower battery costs, the availability
to manufacture the new cells, charging
infrastructure, the life of the batteries,
and cost of ownership.
Fuel-cells, which have been said to be
perpetually five years away, are getting
a huge second look because they
are environmentally friendly, the only
by-product being water vapor. Auto
companies such as Toyota and Hyundai
have been evaluating different mod-
els since 2002, with the first models
rolling out this year. Much like electric
vehicles, fuel-cell vehicles have an infra-
structure hurdle to cross, necessitating
that gas refueling stations be replaced
with hydrogen ones. This is not out of
the realm of possibility: Rather than
filling ground tanks with gasoline,
hydrogen tankers would just stand up
a fresh hydrogen tank in the corner
(California currently has 25 of these
stations, with a goal of having 68 by
the end of 2016). Unlike batteries, fuel
cells are capable of long-range driving
and can be recharged in minutes –
great if you live in California, but limiting
if you’re driving out of state. However,
seeing as conservation trends suggest
that we’ll be relying more on alternative
power sources in the future, fuel-cell
networks will certainly expand.
of cars used in the U.S. could be
replaced by the electric vehicles
available on the market today.15
90%
According to MIT
14
Digital Trends. “Electric Vehicles Available Now Could Replace 90 Percent of Cars Used Today, Study Says.” http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/today-electric-cars-replace-90-per-
cent-todays-cars/.
15
Ibid.
9. 9Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
The dream, of course, is comprised
of vehicles that run on renewable
energy, like sunlight. And that dream
is a little closer to reality now, thanks
to an invention that beams the sun’s
power into a car like a giant magnifying
glass. This invention, being developed
by researchers at Georgia Tech and
Ford Motor Company, would solve the
problem of current solar panels not
generating energy quickly enough to
make solar cars feasible. While the
technology is already being developed,
it will be more than 20 years before so-
lar vehicles are ready for the consumer
market and mass consumption.
In the meantime, manufacturers have
been searching for other modes of
meeting government guidelines for
efficiency – one being lightweight ma-
terials. Steel is heavy and aluminum is
lighter, but carbon fiber and reinforced
plastic are very light and deliver laud-
able low-weight-to-high-strength ratios,
corrosion resistance, and workability.
Unfortunately, manufacturing costs
only increase as we move up the scale
of lowering weight without sacrificing
strength. Carbon fiber production,
for example, can increase costs by
anywhere from 6 to 40 times
per kilogram.16
That being said, carbon fiber is expect-
ed to go mainstream in automobiles by
the mid-2020s and, to take advan-
tage, manufacturers must position
themselves to shift to this material.17
High-end luxury car manufacturer
BMW stands out, leading the way to
large-scale implementation into all their
models. But they’re not the only ones.
Most major automotive companies are
now forming partnerships with experi-
enced carbon fiber players in order to
bring the material closer to a commer-
cial reality. For example, carbon fiber
(due to its strength and light weight)
has always been a staple for sports car
manufacturers, aerospace, and oil and
gas organizations — making them prime
partner opportunities for OEMs.
16
Goldman Sachs. “Cars 2025.” http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/technology-driving-innovation/cars-2025/.
17
Lux Research. “Carbon Fiber to Go Mainstream in Automobile by 2025.” http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/carbon-fiber-go-mainstream-automo-
bile-2025.
As conservation trends suggest that we’ll
be relying more on alternative power
sources in the future, fuel-cell networks
will certainly expand.
10. 10Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY 10
Efficiency will constitute more than
thinking green or having lighter mate-
rials. It will also be about the desire to
use cars without the cost and handling
of actually owning one. This idea of
shared mobility seems to be especially
popular with Millennials with 42%
frequently using multiple transpor-
tation options.18
Zipcars, carpooling,
taxi alternatives, apps that help with
on-demand pick-up (e.g., Uber and Lyft),
and capacity availability will begin to
grow. More so, the cost of implementing
new technologies continues to raise the
cost of ownership, thereby propelling
this shift in car ownership even more.
The same way Millennials’ smartphone
usage transformed the whole tele-
communication business by virtually
eliminating hardline connections in
the home, so too will the idea of
shared mobility disrupt the status
quo of car ownership.
Big cities stand to be affected the most
by on-demand ride-sharing for several
reasons. For example, did you know that
most vehicles worldwide are idle 95% of
the time, used solely for short trips, and
parked for extended periods of time?
Large cities today, like Los Angeles
New York City, and Beijing, are heavily
burdened by traffic jams and have a
lack of adequate parking. Vehicles are
an additional expense to maintain, add
pollution to the air (which causes health
issues), and raise insurance costs.
Services that provide ease of use and
accessibility, such as Zipcar, Turo, and
Car2go, will continue to grow towards
On-demand
in the U.S., and
Millennials are
leading the trend.20
but vehicle sales will shift
to private companies that
operate large fleets.
18
American Public Transportation Association. Millennials & Mobility: Understanding the Millennial Mindset. http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/AP-
TA-Millennials-and-Mobility.pdf.
19
Los Angeles Times. “Ride-sharing Forces Automakers to Rethink How They Sell Cars.” http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-0628-ford-car-sharing-20150628-story.html.
20
American Public Transportation Association. Millennials & Mobility: Understanding the Millennial Mindset. http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/AP-
TA-Millennials-and-Mobility.pdf.
21
Deloitte. “Examining the Evolving Mobility Ecosystem.” http://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/examining-the-evolving-mobility-ecosystem.html.
Rates
ofdriving
aredown
Autosaleswill
decreaseforthe
individualowner
segment,
becoming the main sources of transpor-
tation. Even in developing countries and
emerging markets like China and India
where there are large populations and
booming car ownership, ride-sharing
and electric or fuel-cell technology will
provide the automotive industry with
future growth by lowering pollution.
However, as the popularity of on-
demand ride-sharing takes shape, it
will be a mixed blessing for the auto
industry as profitability still remains
an issue.19
On one hand, the continued
growth of car-sharing reduces the
number of individual sales. At the same
time, there are now more than 4.8 mil-
lion members and more than 104,000
vehicles in 33 countries across five con-
tinents (with Asia, Europe, and North
America leading the market) — which
means that sales are increasing among
private companies that operate. As Mark
Fields, CEO of Ford Motor Company,
stated, “The business of transportation
products and services — think of it as
revenue spent on miles traveled via
mass transit, taxis, ride-sharing, etc. —
that’s worth about $5.4 trillion. Today,
we — and the rest of the traditional
automotive industry — get 0 percent of
that business.”21
In turn, new segments will be crea-
ted for the growth of on-demand use
and will lead to specialized vehicle
designs fulfilling very specific needs:
vehicles specifically built for hauling
goods, tight areas, passenger comfort,
various volumes of people, and availa-
ble connectivity.
11. 11Trends at the Intersection of Technology & STORY
Conclusion
Driven by new technology, the global
automobile industry is poised for a
major transformation. Our vehicles will
become smarter, better connected,
and, eventually, self-thinking. The auto
industry will change and continue to
have new competition from high-tech
companies. Meanwhile, consumer be-
havior is simply changing what it means
to use a vehicle. Drivers will continue
to look at vehicles and how they use
them differently.
All of the aforementioned factors
have a silver lining – one that includes
potential revenues. An estimated 112
million vehicles will be purchased by
2025, with emerging markets dominat-
ing the future growth of the automobile
business.22
Auto leaders who begin
looking at emerging and developing
markets — along with revenue pools
driven by shared mobility, connectivity
services, and feature upgrades — stand
to take a slice of 2030’s estimated 1.5
trillion-dollar market.23
In the end, consumers will decide
which technologies and business
strategies survive.
Becoming both an
automotive and
mobility company
helps make our
customers’ lives
better, but it also
makes good business
sense as well.
22
Goldman Sachs. “Cars 2025.” http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/technology-driving-innovation/cars-2025/.
23
McKinsey & Company. “Disruptive Trends That Will Transform the Auto Industry.” http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/
high-tech/our-insights/disruptive-trends-that-will-transform-the-auto-industry.
24
Deloitte. “Examining the Evolving Mobility Ecosystem.” http://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/
examining-the-evolving-mobility-ecosystem.html.
– Mark Fields,
CEO of Ford Motor
Company24
12. COPYRIGHT 2016 SAPIENT CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.COPYRIGHT 2016 SAPIENT CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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