1. ckoff Anal SIS
Key Highlights:
1.) Relative Strength
2.) Wyckoff Points
3.) Point and Figure: Count/Price objective, & Risk/Reward Ratio's
Tom Bopp
2. Without speciJic, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not hsve
any real chance of success. Why? Because speculators without a
plan are like il general without a strateglt, and therefore without
an actionable battle plan. Speculators without a single clear
plan can only act and react, act and react, to the slings and
&rrows of stock murket misfortune, until they ure defeated
-Reminiscences of a Stock Operutor't by Edwin Lefevre
3. By producing exhibit A.) a vertical chart of the stock Exxon Mobile, ticker (XOM) we
begin by doing an overlay depicted as a red line of the bench mark (I.{ew York Stock Exchange:
$NYA). We can conclude that the relative strength comparison of XOM is weaker than the
market. The stocks highs are lower than the benchmark (red line). Further explained the green
bars are riding consistently under the red line and compared to the red bars which are much
longer ten to ride on top of the red line.
Moreover in exhibit 8.1) Vertical Chart for XOM we can identify the Wyckoff points on
a trading range for distribution. In exhibit 8.2.) we can cross reference the Wyckoff points to a
point and figure chart, do a count, and obtain our price objective minimum and maximum as well
as the mid-point. We place all stop loss points in 3's just above the high of the trading rallge with
the intent to go short utilizing the price projection for that aspect as depicted on exhibit 8.2.) of
the point and figure chart's count. Looking at the vertical chart for XOM we can see a classic
distribution area. This trading range begins with a buying climax in the halting upward
direction, followed by a break downward to an automatic reaction. Fufiher, a resumption in the
upward direction to a secondary test followed by another break into the downside called a sign of
weakness concluding with a last point of support in the upside push.
On a special note, we confirm this classic trading range of distribution by the vertical
chart revealing a tight congestion area of green bars in the upward direction and the red bars in
the downward direction of which are in the confines of narrow price movement. More volume
analysis reveals these WyckotT points, and we can reference the point and figure chart to relate
the Wyckoff points to the 9 Selling tests afforded by Dr. Pruden's book, "The Three Skills of Top
Trading". Tests 1.) can be seen put at the buying climax where the upside price objective is
accomplished. Test 3.) can also be placed at the buying climax in perspective with the end point
of the trading range the last point of support, these two points define the trading range and tend
to match up pretty well most of the time.
Test 2.) aiso revealed at the secondary test and sign of weakness. Test 4.) was passed in
the relative strength analysis whereby XOM is weaker than the market $NYA. In tests 5 and
6.) Lower tops and bottoms play out tow'ards the end of the trading range, also revealed in the
point and figure chart and also leading to test 7 .) of lower supports. A principle within a
principle whereby old support becomes new resistance and the stock is not likely to break back
into the trading range. We can also call this new resistance the ICE where XOM broke through
the ICE in a downward projection and not likely to resume in the uptrend fashion. Test 8.) was
the crowning formation of the entire trading range.
Lastly, estimated upside profit potential is at least three times the indicated risk at 4.01
times. Please see calculations for reward to risk ration in exhibitB.2.). In conclusion, exhibit
C.l.) reveals a more technical confirmation of XOM's distribution in the form of redistribution
withmost of the same Wyckoffpoints of atrading range as well as most of the 9 selling
tests. Redistribution ranges may not necessarily reveal all of the points as a traditional
distribution range, nonetheless it is great for seeking confirmation.
Regarding volume analysis of XOM the buying climax was confirmed with heavy
volume that is climatic in nature and stops the uptrend, thereby initiating the preliminary support.
4. as well as the automatic reaction. Further on into the trading range the lower tops and bottoms
generally occur on lighter volume. Moving to the Wyckoff point, sign of weakness long red bars
in the downward range may reveal heavy spikes in volume by smaft money and professional
interests with strong hands unloading the remaining stock they marched up in their campaign of
the distribution's trading range.
Further, we can identify Accumulation and reaccumulation phases by looking at an
exchange traded fund (ETF) in exhibit D.1.) and D.2.)GOLD in comparison with another leading
ETF: GLD. These to ETF's have large congestion areas whereby we can identifo all the
Wyckoff points of accumulation and reaccumulation in the vertical charts and then cross
reference those points on the point and figure charts. In much the same fashion as in our
example of distribution and redistribution in XOM and the New York Stock Exchange the
analysis on the Gold ETF's is just the reverse, in other words flipped upside down. Let us take a
look at the vertical chart of GOLD in exhibit D.1.) where a selling climax is reached also known
as capitulation evident by long red bars. We then get a push up with the green bars to an
automatic reaction, followed by a pull back down to a secondary test, followed by another push
up to break the confines of the trading range known as resistance into a sign of strength.
Generally the trading range ends with a last point of support with the long red bars
pulling back to the downside in the support area of the trading range. Note the break out of the
resistance, whereby the price rides on the top of the resistance. In this action the old resistance
becomes new supporl, a principle within a principle at work also confirmation of the Creek
whereby the price is not likely to retrace back into the old trading range, the price breaks through
the creek and may back up to the edge of the creek (BUEC), then breakout into a major
uptrend. Price may then land into another congestion range tamiliar with technical analysts as a
stepping stone. Last point of supporl tends to be traced back to the same area where we landed
in with the selling climax.
We can now transfer these Wyckotf points on to the point and figure chart of GOLD and
get not only confirmation most of the time but also do our count, thereby reaching our price
objective and reward to risk ratio. Finally we close out with identifying the 9 buying tests as
referenced by, "The Three Skills of Top Trading" by Dr. Hank Pruden. In exhibitD.Z.) GOLD
passed test 1.) downside price objective was accomplished at the selling climax at point 1,,test2.
preliminary support, selling climax, and secondary test passed at our Wyckoff points2, the
automatic reaction and points 3 secondary test and test 4 passes at the break in the upside with
the sign of strength where the downward stride is indeed broken. Tests 5 and 6 indicated by the
higher tops and bottoms is also reflected by the break outs seen in the sign of strengths otherwise
known as upthrusts late in the trading range.
The stock would be compared to a bench mark such as a Gold Index. In our case we
wanted to match it up to a Gold Index (ticker: GDX), since Gold is such a strong Economic
indicator in and of itself, thus relative strength test has been passed for test 7. We can close out
test B, as a base has indeed formed. Test t has been passed with a reward to risk ration of 6.68
times. Our count for GOLD revealed that we would have gone long into the confines of our
price objectives. We would have placed our stops three points below our low of the trading
5. range. Thus our estimated upside protit potential is at least three times the loss is a protective
stop is hit.
You can see the counts on all the exhibits in the point and figure charts. in the
distributions w'e counted fiom the last point of support back to the left to the buying climax,
multiplied by 1 point box reversal (1 point). We take that number and subtract it from the count
line itself as well as the high of the trading range to get out price objective which indeed fell
right into the next congestion zone. Both point and figure charts were daily and utilized a one
point reversal as to get a magnified view of the markets over a span of approximately a six
month time range.
Our count in GOLD starJed at the end of the trading range, lows start with the o's from
last point of support back to selling climax. We take that number and add it to our count line and
also add it to the 1ow of the trading range to get our price objective which as evidenced by
exhibit D.2.) placed just into another congestion zone in the upward price area. We can conclude
test 9 passed with GOLD having a reward to risk ration of 6.68 times. In closing out the 9 tests a
classically quoted book in technical analysis excerpt follows from, "Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator" by Edrvin Lef-evre.
Success/ul traders always follow the line of least resistance.
Follow the trend, the trend is your friend.
Regarding volume analysis of GOLD, this classic example of an accumulation trading
range depicted heavy volume in the selling climax and automatic reaction. Further" these
Wyckoff points hit the bottom of the trading range known otherwise as support. Proceeding on
into the parameters of the trading range where we see the higher tops and bottoms generally may
occur on lighter volume. These higher tops and bottoms are indicative of a sign of strength with
a tendency to have a pullback otherwise known as springs back into the upper confines of the
trading range, particularly riding the top of resistance. A principle w'ithin a principle is at work
here , where old resistance becomes new support and a breakout into an uptrend may generally
follow.
6. Work cited
Lefevre, Edwin, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Pruden, H., "The three Skills of Top Trading"
Stockcharts.com : Point and figure charts
Tradingview.com: Vertical (bar or candle stick charts)
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Exxon Better Positioned Than Most:
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How Randgold Resources (GOLD) Stock
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atYahm FinaBce 10h
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i:I MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF, D, BATS
Vol (20, false) 138.242M102.131M
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Details
MARKETVECTORS GOLD
MINERS ETF (BATS:GDX)
19.71 -0.11 (-o.ss%)
market closed
19.56 Day's Range
Headlines for GDX S
Largest Gold ETF Takes Key Buy Point,
Miners Eye '160lo Weekly Gain
at lnvBtor's Busin6s Daily ii,
Where Will Gold Mining ETFs Go From
Here?
at Yah@ Finance ih
How To Play The "Trump Effect": Go
Long Gold, Short China
ar Yah@ Finance 23h
Gold Mining ETFs Build On Gains Amid
Weaker Dollar; XLU Booted
3t lnv6to/s Bssiness Daily 1c
Gold rally to continue?
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https : //www.tradingview. com/chart/?symbol:GDX 31412016
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14. Exhibit 8.2.)
Reward to risk ratios for Distribution:
Reward:
C*(l+o/o1-P
oA-PlC-1
_P.CIC
Risk:
C*(l-%):S
oh:1-S/C
Reward / Risk - o/oReward I % Risk
Reward risk ratio for Accumulation:
Reward:
c*(1-%):P
oh:1 - P i S
Risk:
Cn(I+o ):S
oh: S / C - I
Reward / Risk : o Reward / % Risk
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