Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future 12 October 2017

1. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future
Tony Meehan, Executive Manager, Regulation
All-Energy Australia, 12 October 2017

2. Backbone of Australia’s Electricity System
Centre of the NEM
connecting QLD and
VIC
32% of Australia’s
population
34% of energy
consumed in the NEM
NSW
NSW is the largest region in the
National Electricity Market
TransGrid is the operator and manager
of the NSW transmission network
Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future2 /

3. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future3 /
Disruption at the source of energy
Existing large generation
Coal
49%
CCGT
5%
OCGT
14%
Gas other
5%
Solar*
0.58%
Wind
9%
Water
17%
Biomass
1%
Other
0.30%
Coal CCGT OCGT Gas other Solar* Wind Water Biomass Other
NEM existing generation capacity mix

4. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future4
Dramatic change as generation retires
Source: AEC

5. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future
Role of Transmission in the Future Energy System
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1. Transmission networks maintain energy security through core expertise in power system security and
stability, and a thorough understanding of the planning and operation of the power system.
2. Transmission networks deliver affordability for consumers as the platform on which the competitive
wholesale electricity market operates.
3. Transmission networks are integral to reducing emissions in the electricity sector by transporting
energy between areas with abundant renewable resources and areas where electricity is used.

6. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future6 /
Significant impact for consumers
Price impact of expanding renewables, and coal-plant
closures
Source: Professor Ross Garnaut 550MW Topaz Solar Farm in California

7. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future7 /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Paul Maycock, company filings
PV module prices and learning curve calculation The cost of wind turbine continues to fall
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data by contract signing date
Cost of renewable generation is going down

8. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future8 /
A successful transition
Connection of large-scale
renewable generation
Sharing of geographically
diverse resources
New ancillary services to
manage system stability
Regulatory framework to
evolve to support the system

9. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future9 /
A trajectory towards 100%
renewable generation is feasible,
and the technical challenges
associated with this
transformation can be met in a
way that is affordable for
consumers.
Connection of large-scale renewable generation in areas with abundant renewable resources could
be enabled by extension of the transmission network to those areas.
The transition to large-scale renewable sources of energy will
be enabled by transmission

10. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future10 /
A strategic approach is required
A strategic approach to identifying renewable zones
at lowest cost, with the best renewable resources
and compatible land use is required Finkel recommendation
“By mid-2018, the Australian Energy Market
Operator, supported by transmission network
service providers and relevant stakeholders,
should develop an integrated grid plan to
facilitate the efficient development and
connection of renewable energy zones across
the National Electricity Market.”
(Source: Independent Review into the Future
Security of the National Electricity Market)

11. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future11 /
The following criteria were geographically mapped to the study area and used to determine
the suitability of each 50mx50m cell within that area:
Study of new energy zones
• Solar PV resource
• Wind resource
• Site elevation
• Site slope
• Parcel size
• Land tenure
• Land use
• Land cover
• Protected areas
• Prohibited areas

12. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future12 /
A significant amount of solar resource exists within
the study area.
In order to provide efficient and effective renewable
zones, solar generation should be located near to
the wind resource.
Approximately 40GW of solar has been identified
between Yass and Balranald and another 20GW
between Balranald and Casterton.
Study of new energy zones – solar resources

13. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future
Reforms to enable the Renewable Energy Future
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TransGrid proposes several reforms that will be essential to a successful transition:
1. Connection of large-scale renewable generation in areas with abundant renewable
resources will be enabled by extension of the transmission network to those areas.
2. An increasing proportion of intermittent generation will be made possible by greater
interregional transmission capacity and large-scale energy storage. This will allow
sharing of geographically diverse resources and smoothing of the intermittent
generation profile to fit the demand profile.
3. As existing synchronous generation is retired, there will be a need for new ancillary
services to manage system stability in place of inherent synchronous inertia.
4. The regulatory framework will need to evolve to support the energy system of the
future.

14. Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future
Tony Meehan, Executive Manager, Regulation
All-Energy Australia, 12 October 2017
Unlocking Australia’s Renewable Energy Future14 /