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Sustainable China?

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What means economical growth, rollover migration and urbanisation for China and the world?

Input presentation for a Social Mobility workshop.

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Sustainable China?

  1. 1. SUSTAINABLE CHINA? SAM Forum, 27.01.2009 Dirk Jehmlich, General Manager Asia-Pacific >> 1 www.trendbuero.com
  2. 2. THE WORLD IS URBANIZING. CHINA FASTEST. Sustainable China? >> 2 www.trendbuero.com
  3. 3. IN 2025 CHINA WILL HAVE 221 CITIES WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 1 MILLION. EUROPE HAS 35 TODAY. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 3 www.trendbuero.com
  4. 4. 800 MILLION CHINESE WILL LIVE IN CITIES BY 2020. 930 MILLION BEFORE 2030. UN, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 4 www.trendbuero.com
  5. 5. 700 MILLION OF THEM WILL German Center for Industry and Trade, Shanghai, 2007 HAVE WESTERN SPENDING CAPACITY BY 2015? Sustainable China? >> 5 www.trendbuero.com
  6. 6. THEY WANT TO MOVE OUT FROM THEIR PARENTS INTO BIGGER APARTMENTS, WORK IN OFFICES AND DRIVE THEIR OWN CARS. Sustainable China? >> 6 www.trendbuero.com
  7. 7. MEANS… Sustainable China? >> 7 www.trendbuero.com
  8. 8. 40 BILLION SQM OF FLOOR SPACE WILL BE BUILT IN 5 MILLION BUILDINGS UNTIL 2025. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 8 www.trendbuero.com
  9. 9. 50,000 OF THESE BUILDINGS COULD BE SKYSCRAPERS = 10 NEW YORK CITIES McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 9 www.trendbuero.com
  10. 10. THIS MEANS 1 NEW BEIJING EVERY YEAR FOR 35 YEARS. 35 X BEIJING = 2 X THE TOTAL BUILT VOLUME OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 10 www.trendbuero.com
  11. 11. 5 BILLION SQM STREETS WILL BE PAVED UNTIL 2025 = A TWO LANE ROAD 40 X AROUND THE WORLD. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 11 www.trendbuero.com
  12. 12. TO HOST 140 MILLION CARS ON THE ROADS BY 2020. China Daily, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 12 www.trendbuero.com
  13. 13. BUT STILL, SHANGHAI’S TRAFFIC WILL EXCEED ITS ROAD CAPACITY THREE TIMES. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 13 www.trendbuero.com
  14. 14. EVEN THOUGH 64% OF PEOPLE RANK THE CURRENT TRAFFIC SITUATION AS ‘BAD’ Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OR ‘VERY BAD’, 75% EXPECT TO OWN A CAR IN 2020. Sustainable China? >> 14 www.trendbuero.com
  15. 15. 41% OF THOSE WHO NOW TRAVEL BY NON-CAR METHODS HOPE SOON TO BE DRIVING. THOSE PRESENTLY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 IN CARS INSIST THEY WILL KEEP ON USING THEM. Sustainable China? >> 15 www.trendbuero.com
  16. 16. BY 2050 CHINA WILL HAVE ALMOST AS MANY CARS AS THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS TODAY. Economist, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 16 www.trendbuero.com
  17. 17. TWO MILLION MORE CARS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE TO BEIJING'S ROADS BY 2012. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 17 www.trendbuero.com
  18. 18. THEY WILL NEED ANOTHER 60 SQ KM OF PARKING SPACE = THE TOTAL AREA WITHIN THE 2ND RING ROAD AND AT LEAST 1.3 BILLION China Daily, 2008 LITERS OF GAS EACH YEAR. Sustainable China? >> 18 www.trendbuero.com
  19. 19. IT WILL BE DENSE. 17,150 PEOPLE PER SQKM IN SHENZHEN; 13,400 IN Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 SHANGHAI; 11,500 IN BEIJING. Sustainable China? >> 19 www.trendbuero.com
  20. 20. URBAN EXPANSION IS CONCENTRATED IN A MINORITY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 20 www.trendbuero.com
  21. 21. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 21 www.trendbuero.com
  22. 22. SEPARATE IT FROM CHINA AND YOU GET: PEOPLE’S URBANITY OF CHINA Sustainable China? >> 22 www.trendbuero.com
  23. 23. PUC AREA IS ONLY 1/3 OF THE USA AND YET PUC’S POPULATION IN 2020 WILL Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 BE MORE THAN 1.5 TIMES OF (EUROPE + USA). Sustainable China? >> 23 www.trendbuero.com
  24. 24. 96% OF… CHINA’S POPULATION, CHINA’S GDP, Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 CHINA’S ARABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 24 www.trendbuero.com
  25. 25. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 26 www.trendbuero.com
  26. 26. THE EMERGENCE OF A SINGLE MEGALOPOLIS OF OVER 470 MILLION Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 INHABITANTS. Sustainable China? >> 27 www.trendbuero.com
  27. 27. INHABITANTS = CONSUMERS Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 28 www.trendbuero.com
  28. 28. CONSUMERS CAUSE CONSUMPTION. Sustainable China? >> 29 www.trendbuero.com
  29. 29. CONSUMPTION CONSUMES RESOURCES. Sustainable China? >> 30 www.trendbuero.com
  30. 30. BUT WE ARE LIVING IN AN AGE OF RESOURCE SCARCITY. Sustainable China? >> 31 www.trendbuero.com
  31. 31. CHINA OFFERS GREAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL INDUSTRIES. BUT THESE OPPORTUNITIES ARE TIED TO SERIOUS CHALLENGES. Sustainable China? >> 32 www.trendbuero.com
  32. 32. AGRICULTURAL GROUND China State Environmental Protection Administration, 2007 AFFECTED BY ACID RAIN NOW ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF CHINA’S TOTAL USABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 33 www.trendbuero.com
  33. 33. HEAVY METAL-TAINTED FOODS AMOUNT TO 12 Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM, WITH ECONOMIC DAMAGE AMOUNTING TO 20 BILLION YUAN. Sustainable China? >> 34 www.trendbuero.com
  34. 34. POLLUTION HAS MADE Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 CANCER THE NATION’S NO. 1 KILLER. LUNG CANCER CASES GREW UP 18.6% IN 2006 FROM 2005. Sustainable China? >> 35 www.trendbuero.com
  35. 35. ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM AIR AND WATER POLLUTION TOTALED 781 BILLION YUAN IN 2007. World Bank, 2007 Sustainable China? >> 36 www.trendbuero.com
  36. 36. SOCIAL COST OF POLLUTION NOW AMOUNTS TO 8-13% OF Pan Yue, Vice Chairman of the CNEMC, 2006 GDP. Sustainable China? >> 37 www.trendbuero.com
  37. 37. STILL… Sustainable China? >> 38 www.trendbuero.com
  38. 38. CHINESE CONSUMERS WILL DOUBLE THEIR FOOD CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2020. CHINA WILL ACCOUNT FOR http://www.foodnavigator.com 1/3 OF WORLD MEAT CONSUMPTION. Sustainable China? >> 39 www.trendbuero.com
  39. 39. 48% WANT TO COMMUTE BY CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 40 www.trendbuero.com
  40. 40. 63% WANT TO OWN A CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 41 www.trendbuero.com
  41. 41. 75% DREAM OF HAVING A GARDEN. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 42 www.trendbuero.com
  42. 42. 79% A SPACIOUS HOME. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 43 www.trendbuero.com
  43. 43. AND 90% WANT TO LIVE IN A SUSTAINABLE Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 ENVIRONMENT. Sustainable China? >> 44 www.trendbuero.com
  44. 44. BUT… Sustainable China? >> 45 www.trendbuero.com
  45. 45. s fish’ the h e bot v ’t ha paw an r’s eat it too. c e beaae and You th k andt have your c tail can’ u , yo – or Sustainable China? >> 46 www.trendbuero.com
  46. 46. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINABILITY COMES INTO THE GAME. Sustainable China? >> 47 www.trendbuero.com
  47. 47. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –What if you built the whole mass –Politics: China will be in transition –Sustainability in China is crucial for of Western Europe in 20 years from centralized China to a United national security. and 400 million urbanites then States of China. sustainability = peace move in? –Economics: Sustainability will be –Environmental pollution consumes key to sustain economic growth and a serious share of economic growth –What are impacts on brands, increase living standards. sustainability = profit products and services? –Society: China will be dominated by –Resource scarcity and wastage of a urban middle class. resources risk global competiveness –What are emerging challenges sustainability = growth –Technology: China will be a global and opportunities for you? –High-speed urbanization powerhouse for R&D and production and a lab for new technical and sustainability = future –What does it mean for Europe if social innovations. R&D, production and –Consumption: Shift from Made in consumption all shift to Asia? China to Made for China. –Resources: Massive demand for raw –What are quick wins of materials, energy, skills and food sustainable behaviour for each outpace supply stakeholder? –How can planet earth deal with a billion new middle class consumers (long-term achievements)? Sustainable China? >> 48 www.trendbuero.com
  48. 48. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –How will consumption patterns –Economic growth: GDP will fourfold Consumption Pattern be affected by shifts of wealth? until 2020; EUR 74 billion –Qualities: efficiency, identity, investment for housing & design, authenticity, quality, infrastructure –What is the impact of comfort, convenience –Urbanization: 400 mio new immigration on market demand? –Behaviours: access, value for urbanites by 2020 money, diversification –How will increased global –Migration: 96% of China’s GDP is distribution of talent change the consumed in east China corporate landscape? Migration –Weak social security: 300 to 600 –Global: Talent Tango – learn in the billion USD by 2020 (best case USD –Will we have climate migrants? 400 per capita) West, earn in the East –Growing income: 700 mio. –National: from west to east; rollover –Will walls be built up or will consumers with western spending migration migration flow more freely? capacity in 2015 –Climate: soil erosion, deforestation –Environment: 130 mio. hectares of and desertification will force millions –What are corresponding of northern China’s arable land is to move investment opportunities? shrinking; EUR 39 billion –Barriers: barrier-free migration for investment for ecological and educated workforce only environmental projects –Individualization: 79% of young Chinese assume to live without parents by 2020 Social Mobility in China >> 49 www.trendbuero.com
  49. 49. Thank you! Hamburg | Beijing Dirk Jehmlich General Manager Asia-Pacific 研究中心 Trendbüro #2108 Xintai Building | 8 Xiaguangli | Chaoyang District | 100016 Beijing | China Email: d.jehmlich@trendbuero.com | http://www.trendbuero.com Contact >> 50 www.trendbuero.com

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