Boise When Will It Be Normal Again 1st Quarter 2010

THE “NORMALCY” REPORT
BOISE - WHEN WILL IT BE “NORMAL” AGAIN?
THE DEFINITIVE REPORT ON THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF ADA/CANYON COUNTIES

HOMEBUILDING INDUSTRY AND RELATED INDUSTRIES REPORT

1ST QUARTER 2010

BY

Douglas Swallow Trey Langford
Founder Founder
Organizational Genetics Build Idaho
Risk Mitigation and Performance Advertising Strategists &
Improvement Advisors Internet Advisors

Copyright 2010 © by Douglas E. Swallow

All rights reserved. No Part of this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever
without written permission from Douglas E. Swallow. For information and/or questions regarding this
Report, please call (702) 303-1047, email doug@organizationalgenetics.com or write
Organizational Genetics at 411-F Deinhard Lane, McCall Idaho 83638

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THE “NORMACLY” REPORT
Welcome to our quarterly national, local, and homebuilding and related industries economic analysis
and forecast for Ada and Canyon Counties. This analysis is of the 1st quarter of 2010.

The normalcy report is a new type of economic analysis; one based on the normalcy theory of econom-
ics and normalcy index. This new theory and index increases the clarity with which CEO’s see the eco-
nomic landscape over traditional methodologies. As a colleague of mine said, “its not going to endear
the hearts of academia or economist, but it does tells us what traditional economic theory cannot, which
is where the economy is relative to the new normal, what the new normal looks like, and how long it will
most likely take to reach full normalcy.”

By knowing where the national and local economies are relative to normal, as well as, the key eco-
nomic measures for a particular industry; business owners and CEO’s in that industry can make more
accurate business projections, manage risk, and communicate to their partners, investors, lenders, and
employees what’s really going on in their environment and what it means to them and the company.

The recession has hit the homebuilding, banking and related businesses sectors of Ada and Canyon
Counties economy’s harder than most. To help in the recovery, we will be providing this quarterly report
free of charge to the owners, CEO’s, and industry leaders in homebuilding, land development, banking,
and related businesses, until the market returns to normal.

My name is Douglas Swallow. I am an organizational and human performance scientist, consultant, and
founder of Organizational Genetics (OG). For nearly 30 years, I have been conducting organizational

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performance research and helping owners and CEO's, and their key executives be better, do better,
and build better performing companies and workforces. Trey Langford, co-developer of the Ada/
Canyon Counties normalcy report is an advertising strategist and internet advisor. He has been in
advertising since 1991. We are both in the business of helping owners and CEO’s improve the per-
formance of their businesses and reduce risk.

Trey does this by developing advertising and internet strategies that maximize new customers and
return on advertising dollars. He does this by taking the time to truly understanding each client’s
value orientation, unique value proposition, business objectives, and available financial resources.
From this perspective he formulates world-class performing advertising strategies.

I empower owners and CEO’s to reduce risk and increase results by providing them with world’s
leading CEO dashboard instrument panel. A panel of Instruments that empower CEO’s to see with
more than twice the clarity of the average CEO the performance capability of an organization and the
markets in which it operates. I then provide them with today’s leading organizational, leadership, and
employee performance paradigms and programs for optimizing their performance capability and the
capability of their managers and employees. The combination of the world’s leading CEO instrument
panel, paradigms and human performance development programs enhances owners and CEO’s
ability to decrease risk and increase cash flow, profitability or EBITDA, sales, and CSI.

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The term CEO dashboard refers to the collective set of reports a CEO uses to navigate his or her or-
ganization. The number of instruments on a CEO dashboard varies by size of company and degree of
market competitiveness. The number of instruments on a CEO dashboards range from less than 5 to
over 150.

Regardless of the size of company, included in every business owner’s or CEO’s set of reports is a
collection of reports that tell them what’s going on in the market and what the future holds one, three,
and five years down the road, as well as, estimates on what the long term future holds, 10 and 20
years down the road. In talking with owners and CEO’s about the recession, I repeatedly heard the
external environment assessment instruments on their dashboard’s didn’t accurately tell them what
was going on in the market, what the changes in economic key performance measures meant, when
they would return to normal, or what the short and long term outlooks were for the markets in which
they operated. Enter the normalcy theory of economics and index.

At the center of the normalcy report is the normalcy index. A ten point index that classifies each key
performance measure between the worst data point of all time and the best. 1.0 is the worst data point
of all time, 5.0 is normal, and 10.0 is the best.

The classification of a key performance measure, either side of normal, is determined by a percent-
age. A measure is considered normal when it is less than 10% above or below normal. It is below

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or above normal when it varies 10% to 19% from normal. A poor classification is for any measure
greater than 20% below normal, but less than a top five worst data point of all time. A
very good classification is for all measures between 20% and 29% above normal. An excellent classi-
fication is for all measures greater than 30% above normal. The balance of classifications are as they
are titled. The Normalcy Index is as follows and its data sets have been color coded in for ease and
rapid interpretation.

THE OG NORMALCY INDEX

1. Worst data point of all time
2. Top five worst data points of all time
3. Poor
4. Below normal
5. Normal
6. Above normal
7. Very Good
8. Excellent
9. One of the best data points of all time
10. Best data point of all time

The Normalcy Report includes an introduction i.e. when will it get back to normal, the normalcy index,
the bottom line, actionable intelligence summary of each key performance measure, and an overview
of each key performance measure with charts, where appropriate.

Trey and I met and teamed up a year ago to help owners and CEO’s reduce risk and improve results.
At the time, I had just developed the 1st prototype of the normalcy report on the Las Vegas, Nevada

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market. We decided to develop one together for owners and CEO’s in the homebuilding and related
businesses sector of the Ada and County market areas.

If you would like a customized version of this or future reports with your logo on the front and each
page, as well as, as your own introduction and company story to send to lenders, shareholders, and/
or customers, we would be happy to do so for the opportunity for Trey and I to introduce our busi-
nesses and show you how we can help you and your business. If you would like to take advantage of
this opportunity just email or call Trey at Trey@buildidaho.com or (208) 724-9636. Additionally, if you
would like us to provide an overview of this analysis to a professional group of yours, we would be
happy to do so.

Trey and I would like to help you and your business perform better in these difficult times. Please
email or call us at the addresses or numbers listed below, schedule an appointment, take advantage
of our offer.

Thank you.

Douglas Swallow Trey Langford
Founder Founder
Organizational Genetics Build Idaho
Doug@orggenetics.com Trey@buildidaho.com
(208) 325-7887 (208) 724-9636

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BOISE - WHEN WILL IT GET BACK TO NORMAL?
The recovery has begun. This analysis indicates the national normalcy index is improving rapidly
and now stands at 86.6% of normal. The Ada and Canyon county’s economies normalcy index is
trending at 36% below normal. The homebuilding and related industries index for greater Treasure
Valley is 50% of normal. The national economic normalcy index is projected to reach normalcy by
the end of the 1st quarter of 2011 and full normalcy, by 2nd quarter of 2013. The local economy will
trail these dates by one year. Homebuilding and related industries will achieve normalcy by the end
of the 1st quarter of in 2014.

The Ada/Canyon County Homebuilding and Related Industries Normalcy Index is comprised of 21
key performance measures; six national, five local, and ten specific to the homebuilding industry. On
the following page is the Ada/Canyon County Homebuilding and Related Industries Normalcy Index.

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Copyright 2010 © by Douglas E. Swallow and Trey Langford, All rights reserved
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THE BOTTOM LINE
The bottom line is the homebuilding and related industries sector of the Ada and Canyon county
economies have two to three years of tough times to go. Yes, the future is exceptionally bright. In
five to seven years there will be more demand than the industry can handle. Its true, nearly all of
the key economic indicators have bottomed and most have improved, with the exception of fore-
closures. The level of notices of default continue coming in a record levels. Although the latest
declines in unemployment are encouraging several other key indicators remain at their all time
worst levels.

That’s the bad news. The good news is even as bad as it is, and its bad, the homebuilding and
related industries sector of the economy is still a $300,000,000 to $350,000,000 dollar a year in-
dustry in the Treasure Valley. Companies have had to reduce their workforces by 40% to 60%
and wring every non-essential dime out of their operating budgets, but those who are able to re-
align their business models and adopt pro-active business development strategies, can and are
cash flowing and in many cases making a profit.

The bottom line is the homebuilding sector of the Ada and Canyon County economies are trend-
ing at nearly 1,800 units and $350,000,000 in annualized revenue today. It will get better, but
both economies together have lost over 24,000 jobs. It won’t be normal until the Ada and Canyon
Counties add these jobs back and realistically this is two and half to three years from now.


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U.S. Leading Economic
Key Performance Measures


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1. NATIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP): POOR
The national economy is recovering relatively quickly. In just 3 quarters the economy, as measured by its out-
put or gross domestic product, has recovered nearly 72% of what it lost in the great recession of 2008 and
2009. Current trends indicate by the end of 3rd quarter of this year the economy will be producing more than
it did at its high in the 2nd quarter of 2008. In the 1st quarter of 2010 the economy grew by $105.2 billion dol-
lars to 13.254 trillion dollars. The all time high for GDP was 13.415 trillion dollars.


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2. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: POOR
The consumer confidence level re-
mains 40% below normal. The con-
sumer confidence is considered nor-
mal when it is between 70 and 90, and
high in excess of 90.

Should the majority of the other vari-
ables stabilize by the end of the sec-
ond quarter of 2010, it can be ex-
pected the consumer confidence index
will be back to 70 by the end of the 1st
quarter of 2011.

The first quarter was virtually identical
to the 4th quarter. In the fourth quarter
the index averaged 50.67, In the first
quarter the average was 51.7.


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3. U.S. STOCK MARKET: NORMAL
The stock market or in particular the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a leading economic indicator of the
health of the national economy. Normal is defined by fair market stock prices for the companies which
make-up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The new “normal” is projected to be between 10,000 and
12,000. For the first three months of the year, Dow Jones Industrial Average was in the normal range at
10,430.69.


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4. GAS / OIL PRICES: POOR
When not normal, gas and oil prices are a leading de-stabilizer of the U.S. economy. The new normal range
for unleaded gas is projected to be $2.60 to $2.80 per gallon. The average price for a gallon of unleaded
gasoline is currently $2.89.

The ten year average price for a barrel of oil has been $60.00. At the end of the 4th quarter the price per
barrel was $79.4, which is down from the high of $145.2. Currently, the price stands at $84.0 per barrel.
The new normal is projected to be between $68 and $78 dollars per barrel.

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5. U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
ONE OF THE TOP FIVE WORST DATA POINTS OF ALL TIME
The new normal for the U.S. unemployment rate will be 4.8% and 5.8%. The current rate is 9.7%, which
is unchanged from the 4th quarter of 2009. Presently, there are 138,133,000 people are employed in
the U.S.. Since the recession began in the 1st quarter of 2008 the U.S. labor force lost approximately
7,275,000. To achieve normalcy the U.S economy need to add this number of jobs. As of the date of
this report the U.S. Department of Labor reported its first monthly gain of the recovery of 290,000 jobs.
The U.S economy can create between 2.0M and 3.0M jobs per year. At an optimistic rate of 2.5M new
jobs per year, unemployment will be back to the new normal by the end of the 1st quarter of 2013.


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6. MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES: EXCELLENT
The 30-year average interest rate percentage, excluding the highs of 1981 through 1983, have histori-
cally averaged 7.5%. For the past ten years interest rates have remained below 7.5%. The rate fluctu-
ated throughout 2009 and ended precisely where it started at 5.14%. At the end of the 1st quarter of
2010 the rate was 5.07%.


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Ada/Canyon Counties Local Economic
Key Performance Measures


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1. ADA/CANYON COUNTIES POPULATION LEVEL, LONG TERM
1. OUTLOOK, AND HOUSEHOLDS: NORMAL
Despite the current recession, Ada and Canyon Counties are projected to see substantial growth in the
coming decade. According to Proximity One, SRC Demographics, and the Idaho state Demographers Of-
fice, over the next ten years population levels in Ada and Canyon counties combined are projected to in-
crease by 298,805 or by 45.23%. The number of households is expected to increase by 108,371 by 2020.
Over the next five years the figure is projected to increase by 25,782 or an average of 5,156. Between
2014 and 2020 the figure is expected to increase by 82,589 or 13,764 per year.

ADA/CANYON COUNTIES HISTORICAL GROWTH:

% Change in
Population Annual Number of Number of Percent In-
Year Population Change Years Growth Households Households crease

2020 est. 894,796 192,232 6 years 27.36% 324,201 82,589 34.18%

2014 est. 702,564 106,573 5 years 17.87% 241,612 25,782 11.95%

2009 est. 596,027 159,836 9 years 36.64% 215,830 57,404 36.23%

2000 436,191 137,793 10 years 46.18.% 158,426 49,667 45.67%

1990 298,398 108,759
Sources: Proximity One, SRC Demographics, and Idaho Department of Labor/ State Demographer


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2. ADA/CANYON COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL:
ONE OF THE WORST DATA POINT OF ALL TIME
Recovery has begun. Although the first quarter BOISE MSA HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT:
data did not indicate this, April data showed a de-
crease in the unemployment rate. Ada County un- Year/ Increase/
employment rate dropped 15% from 9.7% to (January Total Nonfarm Decline From % Annual
Figures) Employment Previous Year Growth
8.2%. Canyon County’s unemployment rate de-
clined 16% from 11.2% to 9.4%. Boise Meridian, 2010 244,500 (11,600) (4.5%)
Nampa, and Caldwell all posted significant de- 2009 256,100 (12,200) (4.5%)
clines in their unemployment rates. The normal 2008 268,300 (1,800) (0.07%)
unemployment rate for both counties is 4% to 5%.
2007 270,100 13,400 5.2%
2006 256,700 13,200 5.5%
Revised Idaho Department of Labor figures sug-
gest job loss since the beginning of the recession 2005 243,400 12,200 5.3%
are higher than previously reported. Since the be- 2004 231,200 1,600 0.07%
ginning of the recession Ada and Canyon Coun-
2003 229,600 2,700 1.2%
ties have now shed 25,600 jobs, 4,300 more than
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
reported in our last report. This adjustment sug-
gest now that the recovery is underway, it will re-
quire 24 to 36 months to recover these loses.


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3. IDAHO GROSS STATE PRODUCT: POOR
The total value of goods and services in Idaho grew modestly in 2008 to $52.7 billion dollars, a 1.2% increase
from 2007’s revised total of $52.2 billion. The depth of the recession offset productivity gains in the first half of
2008, holding the annual increase to its lowest level since 1986. The 2008 growth rate was 47th nationally.
Between 2002, following the recession, and 2007 Idaho’s gross state product rose 44%, eight points higher
than the national average and was the 13th highest rate in the nation. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics and Idaho Department of Labor.


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4. AIR TRAFFIC: POOR
Passenger levels through the Boise Air Terminal continue to decline. 1st quarter figures declined 3% or
16,600. With the projected improvements in the national and regional economies, annualized figures, while
currently trending at the lowest level in 10 years, we project will recover to the 2009 level by year-end.


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5. ADA/CANYON COUNTIES IN-MIGRATION: BELOW NORMAL
Revised 2009 new residents figures, as defined by drivers licensed relinquished, indicate 8,606 in Ada
County and 3,450 in Canyon County. Since 2005, 74,017 licenses have been relinquished, 50,697 in Ada
County and 19,388 in Canyon County. The combined aver-
age for the last five years has been 14,803. 2009 Ada County In-Migration
by State
In Ada County twenty-four percent (24%) of new residents
come from California. Twelve percent (12%) are relocating All Other
States California
Minnesota
Virginia 24%
21%
from Washington and ten (10%) are from Oregon. New resi- 2%
1%
Alaska
Florida
2%
dents from Utah, Nevada, and Arizona comprise 17% of new 2%
Montana
Washington
12%
3%
residents. Canyon County in-migration is virtually identical
Colorado
Nevada
3% Texas Arizona Utah Oregon
with the exception of Oregon at 15%. 3%
5%
5% 7% 10%

Ada and Canyon County's In-Migration
2005 - 2009
14000
11485 11647
12000 10336
10000 8623 8606
8000
Ada County
6000 4264 4488
3771 3415 3450
4000 Canyon County
2000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


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Ada/Canyon Counties

Homebuilding and Related Industries

Economic Key Performance Measures

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1. NEW HOME PERMITS: POOR
In the 1st quarter of 2010, Ada and Canyon Counties had a combined permit level of 440 units. Based on
an imputed 1st quarter permit recovery percentage of 25% the annualized permit level is trending at 1,760
or 3.6% less than initially forecasted. The annual new normal permit level is projected to be 4,200. It is an-
ticipated permit levels will cross this point in 2015 with the annualized projected increase of 20% for the
balance of the decade. The years shaded in blue below indicate the recovery rate for each of the last three
recessions.

Ada/Canyon Counties Historical Permit Analysis

New Normal


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2. NEW HOME SALES (CLOSINGS):
In the first quarter of 2009 new home sales came in at 256 units. The number of pending new home
sales also came in at 256 units. Historically, the first quarter of the year generates between 30% and
35% of the annual sales. However, due to the nature of the recession and recovery, we anticipate sales
will increase in each of the next three quarters and the yearend figure will come in between 1,500 and
1,700 units. The projected new normal is 3,400 units and it is anticipated it will reach this level by 2015.

Ada and Canyon Counties New Home Sales 1998 - 2015

8,000

7,000 6,728

6,000 5,612

5,000 4,494
4,139 3,974
4,000 3,738
3,211 3,209 3,298 3,312
2,893 2,760
3,000 2,564
2,137 2,300
1,920
2,000 1,660 1,600

1,000

-
'98

'99

'00

'01

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09
'02

'T-10

'P-11

'P-12

'P-14

'P-15
'P-13

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3. DEGREE OF MARKET COMPETITIVENSS:
ONE OF THE FIVE WORST DATA POINTS OF ALL TIME
The degree of market competitiveness indicator is
comprised of two measures: adjusted permits to
number of builders and closings to number of active
subdivisions. The first is one of the five worst data
points of all time the other the worst data point of all
time.

The first measure is determined by the total number
of permits, less the number of permits by the top 3
builders. The remaining figure is divided by the num-
Canyon County Adjusted
ber of active builders. The adjusted permit to builder
Permit Per Active Builder Level
ratio in 2010 in Ada County is trending at 2.90. In
5.00 4.29
Canyon County the figure increased in the 1st quar- 4.04
4.00
3.04 3.01
ter to 1.82. Normal is projected to 4.0. 3.00
1.70 1.82
2.00

1.00

0.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


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3. DEGREE OF MARKET COMPETITIVENSS:
Conversely, closings per subdivision has declined from a high of 31.5 in 2005 to the lowest level on re-
cord at 4.16. According to New Home Trends there are 384 active single family detached subdivisions
in Ada and Canyon counties, chasing a projected annualized permit level of 1,600 units. The number of
finished unsold lots totals 17,770 or approximately 46 lots per subdivision on the average.

To achieve equilibrium with the number of subdivisions remaining constant and selling at an annualized
pace of 24 units per year, the permit level will need to increase to 9,200 permits per year. Based on the
projected new normal of 4,200 permits per year, 24 unit per year absorption rate per site, the two mar-
kets will support 175 subdivisions or 46% of the current number of active subdivisions.

What this analysis does not tell us is the concentration of subdivisions by market segment and/or
neighborhood/submarket consumer preferences. This additional analysis could indicate one or more
market segments and areas have insufficient lots relative to demand, while others may have substan-
tially more inventory.


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4. AVERAGE SFD RESIDUAL LAND PRICES PER ACRE:
Residual land prices per acre in Ada county declined 12.9% to an estimated $38,831 in the first
quarter of 2010. According to Mike Pennington the average new home sales price in Ada County
declined $26,199 in the first quarter of 2010 from $202,112 at the end of December of 2009 to
$175,913 at the end of March of 2010.

In Canyon County the residual land prices per acre declined 8.8% to an estimated $25,367 in the
first quarter of 2010. The average new home sales price in Ada County declined in the first quarter
$12,477 from $140,607 in December of 2009 to $128,130 in March of 2010.

The aforementioned figures were based on a residual raw lot cost of 6% of sales price with an aver-
age density of 3.3 units per acre. While base sales prices are the leading variable in the model there
are eight other variables, which include: lot size, density, average square footage, direct and indirect
construction costs, improvement costs, soft costs, and net margin. Note actual average residual
land prices per acre vary by sub-market and market segment. The numbers reflect herein are an av-
erage of all sub-markets and single family detached market segments in Ada and Canyon counties.

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5. FORECLOSURES: WORST DATA POINT OF ALL TIME
According to Idaho Data Providers, first quarter notices of default reseeded from the all time high in
the 4th quarter of 2009 of 2883 to 2408. Notices of default in Ada County increased each month of
the quarter: 408 in January, 420 in February, and 597 in March. In Canyon County 983 notices of
default were filled in the 1st quarter. The monthly figures were 365 in January, 266 in February, and
352 in March. Normalcy for quarterly notices of default range between 250 and 400. Bank owned
listings now comprised 41% of the listings on MLS. The quarterly level of notices of default exceed
the currently quarterly sales rate of existing homes by 233%.

Ada/Canyon Counties
Quarterly Notics of Default
3500

3000 2883

2408
2500 2268
2117 2150
2000
1540
1430
1500
1083 1149
1000 861
606
457 478
500

0
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

2007 2008 2009 2010

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8. EXISTING HOME MLS LISTING INVENTORY:
Ada and Canyon counties end of year existing home MLS listings are both at top five worst data points of
all time. Currently, Ada County supply to sales ratio is 7.15 months. Normal is 4 months. The current level
of listings is trending at 2,856 or 90% higher than the projected new normal of 1,500. Canyon County’s
current supply to sales ratio is 7.4 months. Normal is also 4 months. The current level of listings of 1,336
or 37% higher than the projected new normal of 975. Data provided by Mike Pennington.

Ada County MLS Existing Home Listings Canyon County MLS Existing Home Listings
1998 - 2010 1998 - 2010
3000
2856 1600
2731
2662 1419
1400 1336
2500 2455
1281
1231
1200

2000
1782 1000 New Normal 925
881 899
832 810
New Normal 1483
1500 800 761
1375
1301 1307 705

1120 608
600 557
990
1000
880
812
400

500
200

0 0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 T-10 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 T-10


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6. REAL ESTATE FINANCING:
ONE OF THE TOP FIVE WORST MARKETS OF ALL TIME
The real estate financing picture remained unchanged in the first quarter on the heals of the continued
decline in quality of the local economy and additional bank closures throughout the country. New project
financing remains virtually nonexistent at this time, regardless of net worth, backstops, or relationships.
However, purchaser secured construction financing is available. Normalcy in the real estate lending
segment of the economy is not expected until early 2012.

7. NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION COSTS: POOR
According to Franklin Building Supply, construction costs increased sharply in the first quarter.
Lumber costs increased 23% or $2.20 to $2.30 per foot. Finish products are also up sharply be
cause of the earthquake in Chili. The ports used to ship pine and other materials were destroyed.
The construction materials market eroded quickly in the first quarter, but as some predict, it is nothing
compared to what will happen when we see a substantial rise in demand. The housing starts pace
remains under 700,000, less than half the historical level and 1/4th the high point in 2008. When
demand returns and the starts level gets closer to the 1,000,000 per year pace the true impact of the
last two years of devastation on the supply chain will drive costs up sharply.


33

9. EXISTING HOME SALES: BELOW NORMAL
In 2009, 6,301 existing home sold. The new
Total Existing Home Sales
normal is projected to be between 6,500 and
12000
10517
7,000. Population and recession recovery es- 9404
10000
timates suggest the level of existing home 7987
8000 New Nornal 6814 7030
sales will increase by 7% in 2010 and 10% 5823
6301 6244
6000 4955 5192 5102
per year their after for balance of the decade. 4266 4287
4000
At this pace existing homes will double in the
2000
next ten years to over 13,000.
0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 T-10

Ada County Existing Home Sales Total Existing Home Sales
8000 12000
6917 10517
7000
6229 9404
10000
6000 5616
New Nornal 4950 4948 7987
5000 8000 New Nornal 7030
4395 4337 4200 6814
6301 6244
3765 3798 3747 5823
4000 6000
3299 3320 4955 5192 5102
4266 4287
3000
4000
2000
2000
1000

0 0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 T-10 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 T-10


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10. EXISTING HOME SALES DAYS ON THE MARKET:
ONE OF THE FIVE WORST DATA POINTS OF ALL TIME
The Ada County Days on Market Index is one
Ada County DOM
of the five worst data points of all time. Since
2010
2000, the average number of days on the
2008
market in Ada county has been 61.2. The 2006
current level is 93, and increase of 7 days 2004

over the 2009 average. This figure sets the 2002

new high over the 2003 figure which was 89 2000

days. 0 15 30 45 60 75 90

The Canyon County Days on Market index is Canyon County DOM
also one of the worst data points of all time. 2010
2009
Over the past decade the average number of 2008
2007
days on the market in Canyon County has 2006
2005
been 72.1. The current level is 92. An in 2004
2003
crease of 18 days over the 2009 average of 2002
2001
74. Normal in Canyon county is considered
2000
60. 0 20 40 60 80 100


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INTRODUCTION TO ORGANIZATIONAL GENETICS:
My name is Douglas Swallow. I am an organizational and human performance scientist,

consultant, and founder of Organizational Genetics (OG). Since 1980, I have helping business

owners, CEO’s and their managers be better, do better, and build better performing company’s

and workgroups; by providing them with the tools and paradigms to elevate their clarity with which

they see their environment, reduce risk, and maximize their performance capability and the perform-

ance capability of their workgroups.

Budgets for CEO and organizational development have never been tighter. It is also never been more important to miti-

gate risk wherever possible, maximize sales, and optimize the productivity of every workgroup, manager, employee, and

product. I would like the opportunity to share with you the most powerful insights into each of these areas and show you

how you can significant reduce risk and increase your organization's results in these unprecedented times.

Over the past 28 years, my research has resulted in the identification of 14 breakthrough paradigms and development of

nearly 100 software based technologies. It has taken me across America and around the world and provided me the op-

portunity to work closely with nearly 150 CEO's and talk about how to mitigate risk and achieve world-class results with

over 4,000 more.

36

INTRODUCTION TO ORGANIZATIONAL GENETICS:
In 1997, I made an accidental discovery that genetic structure of all living organisms is identical in form and function to

strategic foundation on which all organization's operate and was able to create an instrument that allows CEO’s to see,

for the first time, their organization’s DNA and performance capability of each gene. The subsequently study of the DNA

profiles of 100's of company's has led to the answers to the three most sought after questions in business today, the 7

trigger elements that enable and inhibit an organization from producing world-class results, and the tools and process to

safely see and adjust organizational DNA. What I would like to do is share with you my research and provide you with

the opportunity to be better, do better, and build a better performing company.

My first two consultations are free. Every client's needs are unique and available financial resources different. All pro-

grams are customized. They range is duration from one day to multi-year and in price from $2,500 to over $2,000,000.

My return on consultant ratio for the past 15 years has ranged between $20:1 and $230:1. To schedule your free intro-

duction to the theory of Organizational Genetics email of call me, Douglas Swallow at Doug@orggenetics.com. or on

my cell at (702) 303-1047. To learn more about my company, please go to my website at www.orggenetics.com.

37

BUILD IDAHO: ADVERTISING STRATEGISTS & INTERNET ADVISORS
THE resource for maximizing your advertising dollar and driving the most prospects to your business.
What’s the best advertising strategy in a weak economy that won’t be back to normal for at least two years? Is it to

stop advertising eliminate and zero out the advertising budget? Is it to align the budget with revenue projections? Is it

to develop a tough market advertising strategy and budget? What is the best advertising strategy for tough times?

If your are reading the normalcy report it is highly unlikely that this is your first rodeo i.e. your first recession, and it will

not be your last. Funding an advertising budget is a tough sell to shareholders in recessions, especially when the com-

pany has laid off a significant percentage of employees and is reaching into its rainy day reserves to make up for cash

shortfalls, is difficult, if not impossible. But if one was so inclined to undertake the challenge, what would he or she

need to make the argument? That’s where I come in, my name is Trey Langford. I have been helping CEO’s with their

advertising issues, budgets, and strategies for over 15 years and I would like to help you.

Build Idaho is not an advertising agency and does not make money off the advertising budget or from advertising

placement or vendor mark-ups. I make money the old fashion way, I earn it, by delivering results, i.e. advertising

strategies the deliver traffic, leads, prospects, or hits. Build Idaho is a business that has two revenue streams: consult-

ing and a website. Consulting is billed on an hourly basis advertising strategies and internet marketing. My website is

for consumers seeking a new home and businesses seeking to reach these customers.

38

BUILD IDAHO: ADVERTISING STRATEGISTS & INTERNET ADVISORS
I would like to provide you with a free assessment of your advertising and internet budgets and strategies. It simple,

its quick, and best of all its free. What you will receive is my 2010 advertising and internet cost benchmark report, a

zero budget strategy and probable out comes assessment, and a minimum adverting and internet budget. With this

assessment and tools, you will be able to determine the short and long term impact of eliminating all advertising

dollars, develop a high return on advertising (ROA) dollar tough market advertising and internet strategy, and sell

that strategy to your shareholders and lenders.

For those of you in the homebuilding and related industries you may or may not be aware that the return on adver-

tising ratios for each of the advertising mediums change in difficult times. In difficult times the highest return on ad-

vertising dollars and lowest cost per lead is the internet. My site, BuildIdaho.com is currently generating 9,800 visi-

tors per month, 40% of which are from out of state. If you would like to explore how for as little as $75.00 per month

you can bring 3 to 5 new qualified leads to your business, I would like to talk with you. To schedule an appointment

email or call me today Trey@BuildIdaho.com or (208) 724-9636

39

Boise When Will It Be Normal Again 1st Quarter 2010

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