A look into Social and Political Dynamics of Tunisia; pre- and post- Arab Spring.

1. Official Name: Tunisian Republic
Population: 10,732,900 (est. July 2012)
Language: Arabic, (French used in
government and commerce)
Religion: Islam 98% Christian 1%
Judaism 1%
Ethnicities: Arab 98% , Berber 1%
Other 1%

2.  The authoritarian and oppressive regime attempted to
implement liberal reforms in order to maintain power. These
proved to be a double-edged sword; prompting significant
economic growth, while spawning popular uprisings against
the regime and ultimately leading to the Arab Spring.
 A successful transition will serve as a model for other
countries, while a failure potentially stands to unravel the
progress of the Arab Spring.

3.  1956 20 March - Tunisia becomes independent with Bourguiba as prime minister.
 1981 - First multi-party parliamentary elections since independence. President Bourguiba's party wins by a
landslide.
 1987 - Bloodless palace coup: Prime Minister Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has President Bourguiba declared
mentally unfit to rule and takes power himself.
 1989 - Ben Ali wins presidential elections. He goes on to be re-elected four more times.
 1999 - First multi-party presidential elections; Ben Ali wins a third term.
 2002 May - President Ben Ali wins a referendum on constitutional changes, paving the way for his fourth
term.
 2009 October - President Ben Ali wins a fifth term in office.
 2010 December - Protests break out over unemployment and political restrictions, and spread nationwide.
 2011 January - President Ben Ali goes into exile amid continuing protests.
 Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi announces an interim national unity government, only partly
satisfying protesters.
 2011 October 23 - Parliamentary elections. Ennahda Islamist party wins, but falls short of an outright
majority.
 2011 November - National assembly which will draft a new constitution meets for first time.
 2012 May - Hundreds of Salafi Islamic extremists clash with security forces and attack a police station
 2012 June - Former president Ben Ali is sentenced to life in prison over the killing of protesters

4. THEN Now
•Strong rates of growth since independence •Economy is suffering post Arab
•Economic success in large part due to manufacturing but Spring
industry and services also significant •Tourism, remittances, FDI all hit
•Well-educated workforce; 80% are considered middle class hard
citizens with a per capita income of $3000
•Most open trading of the Maghreb countries
(imports/exports reached 92.5% GDP in 2004)
•Relied heavily on West/EU for trade
•Remittances, tourism, export agriculture, FDI bolstered
economy
•Unemployment was still an issue despite economic growth
and was exacerbated by world economic crisis
•State economic involvement highest in heavy industry,
infrastructure, and domestic services
•6 period of political economic development (institutional
development, nationalization, private sector promotion,
economic crisis and adjustment, limited structural reforms)

5. THEN NOW (POST ARAB SPRING)
 Government Type: Republic
Strong Central Executive  National Constitutional Assembly
Mixed legal system of civil law and French Multi-Party elections
civil code
Rise of Islamist Party - Ennahda
Single Party System?
Article 8 Appointment of an Interim Government
President – Moncef Marzouki
President Habib Bourguiba Prime Minister – Hamadi Jebali
Partie Democratique Socialiste (PSD) Draft a Constitution
“President for life”
Bloodless coup d’etat Mixed Parliamentary System?
Announced elections
President Zine al-Albidine Ben Ali
Rassemblement Constitutionel
Democratique (RCD)
Secular vs Salafists Movement
Many Political Reforms

6. THEN NOW
•French rule had heavy influence •Salafist movement
•3 groups propelled nationalism: •Not official political party
•Young Tunisians thus taking shape within
•Destour movement society
•Neo Destour •Able to develop alongside
•Bourguiba reformed Personal Status Code with political new freedom
motivation
•Creating the Parti Democratique Socialiste (PSD) tied the •http://www.youtube.com/
government to society even further watch?v=YFqv9dkWEN4
•Focused most of its social development in education and
creating private sector
•“technos” and away from “ethnos”
•State control over society not always secure;
widespread strikes and labor protests in 1978 and
1983
•Ben Ali utilized extreme secularism
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0b8hPCMuAk

7. Foreign Policy Goals

8. •Army and police force constitutionally under command of the President
•Army is conscripted; police/national guards recruit members
•Network of clandestine intelligence services permeated society
•Military and security were not formally attached to politics but Ben Ali rose to
power through intelligence
•Security played major role in policing after bloodless coup
•Under Ben Ali, Islamist “threat” met by zero tolerance policy and was monitored
by security
•Military serves with UN intl peacekeeping forces
•Close relationship with the West
•-Support of US anti-terrorism efforts

9. Relations with
Neighbors
Then:
Relations with Algeria and Libya are complicated, at best.
Fear of “Revolutionary Socialism”
Initially supported the FLN in Algeria and worked
for cease-fire
Relations deteriorated with failure of diplomatic
agreement
Moderate-Arab nationalism
Arab-Israeli Negotiations
Support for Yemeni Royalists
Expulsion from the Arab League
Now:
Algeria is cautious of Tunisia, fearing spill over from the popular
uprisings
Libyan-Tunisian relations have strengthened
Rebuilding of Eastern Libya

10. THEN: NOW:
•History of close ties with the West •West is hesitant to become
involved in Tunisian affairs
•Joined IMF in 1958
•Growing presence of
•Housed the PLO after Lebanese invasion in Salafists/Islamists deepen West’s
1981 fears of instability/failure of Arab
Spring
•First country to sign EU European-
Mediterranean partnership (MEDA)
agreement
•Opposed the first Gulf War against Iraq and
the US led invasion in 2003

11. - Tunisia remains a strategic ally for the United States and the West in
their goal to stop the spread of religious extremism and a model for
development and progress in a volatile region.
- Tunisia is on the precipice of two different paths. If Tunisia can maintain
stability and democratize, it will serve as a model for other Arab Spring
states and future states undergoing similar processes. If Tunisia fails, it
stands to potentially further destabilize the volatile region and unravel
the progress made by the Arab Spring, as the others will most likely fail.

12.  The Middle East (Text). “Tunisia” (Pp 702-729)
 Hachana, Mohamed Nejib. "Twenty Years of Change: Tunisia's Journey of Progress Continues."
Mediterranean Quarterly 19, no. 2 (Spring2008): 1-4.
 Sanchez, Alejandro. "Tunisia: Trading Freedom for Stability May Not Last - An International
Security Perspective." Defense Studies 9, no. 1 (March 1, 2009): 85-92.
 “Tunisia Country Report.” Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2010
 US State Department: Tunisia:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5439.htm
 CIA World Factbook: Tunisia
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ts.html