Український інститут майбутнього (UIF) провів велику презентацію нової програми «Трильйон доларів для України» за участі її керівника та експерта UIF Андрія Ілларіонова.
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
One trillion 2021.10.18
1. ONE TRILLION DOLLARS
FOR UKRAINE
Andrei Illarionov,
Head of the Program, Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Kyiv, Ukraine
Senior Fellow, Center for Security Policy, Washington, USA
President, Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia
Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Kyiv, October 18, 2021
13. 13
Ukraine’s GDP per capita in 2020 is 30% less than in 1989
GDP per capita growth index, 1989-2020 (1989=100%)
Russia
Poland
Ukraine
Belarus
Romania
Turkey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
14. 14
Ukraine’s 30 years cumulative economic growth is negative
GDP per capita average annual growth rates in 1989-2020, %
3.1
2.7
2.4
1.6
0.6
-1.1
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Poland Turkey Belarus Romania Russia Ukraine
15. 15
Ukraine’s GDP per capita in 2020 is one-third of Poland’s
GDP per capita in Ukraine as % of Poland, 1989-2020
141.0
46.6 50.4
38.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1989 2000 2010 2020
16. 16
- To solve most of country’s problems (living standards,
health, education, social protection, science, defense,
foreign policy, etc.) one needs financial resources.
- Necessary financial resources can be produced by only
economic growth.
- Economic growth is the result of entrepreneurial
activities of millions of people affected by external
environment, social institutions and government policies.
Economic growth is the key to success
17. 17
- External Security
- Internal Rule of Law
- Government policies: Optimum Size of Government
Three pillars of fast and sustainable economic growth
18. 18
External security: NATO membership
Frequency of the USSR/Russia aggressions against neighbors
per 100 neighbors-years
0.72
0.00
0.97
1.55
0.00
2.72
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Total Against Nato members Against non-Nato
members
1945-1991 1991-2014
Source: author’s calculations.
23. 23
Relative Size of General Government:
• Share of Government employees in total employment
• Share of Government-owned assets in all national assets
• Share of Government output in total national output
• Share of Government investments in total national investments
• Share of Government revenues in GDP
• Share of Government expenditures in GDP
24. 24
Size of Government in the USA
Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1789−2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1789
1796
1803
1810
1817
1824
1831
1838
1845
1852
1859
1866
1873
1880
1887
1894
1901
1908
1915
1922
1929
1936
1943
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
2020
25. 25
Size of Government in the World
Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
26. 26
Size of Government in the World
Government expenditure in 3 groups of countries, 1870−2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
All countries Developed countries Developing countries Communist and post-Communist countries
28. 28
y = -0,31x + 13,23
R² = 0,29
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
22 27 32 37 42 47 52
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in the USA, 1950−2020
29. 29
y = -0,371x + 18,856
R² = 0,595
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Germany, 1950−2020
30. 30
y = -0,645x + 25,572
R² = 0,681
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Japan, 1950−2020
31. 31
Size of Government and Economic Growth
in OECD countries, 1960-2020
(24 countries, 6 decades, 144 observations)
А 1 percentage point increase in the share of
government spending in GDP was accompanied
with about a 0.1% decline in average annual
GDP growth rate
SP60
JA60
GR10
y = -0.11x + 7.18
R² = 0.45
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Average
annual
GDP
growth
rates,
%
Government expenditures as % of GDP
33. 33
y = -1,127x + 43,838
R² = 0,40
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Lithuania, 1994−2020
34. 34
y = -1,569x + 63,196
R² = 0,547
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Latvia, 1994−2020
35. 35
y = -1,074x + 45,619
R² = 0,522
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Estonia, 1994−2020
36. 36
y = -0,462x + 16,637
R² = 0,304
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
15 20 25 30 35 40
GDP
Growth
Rate,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Georgia, 1994−2020
37. 37
y = -0,995x + 26,383
R² = 0,274
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan,
1992−2020
38. 38
y = -0,966x + 37,336
R² = 0,526
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Russia, 1994−2020
39. 39
y = -0,652x + 27,798
R² = 0,142
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 35 40 45 50 55
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Ukraine, 1994−2020
81. 81
Canada: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
2.4
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1982-1995 1996-2007
47.9
41.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1982-1995 1996-2007
82. 82
Finland: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
58.4
47.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1991-1998 1999-2007
1.4
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1991-1998 1999-2007
83. 83
Netherlands: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
51.9
42.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1980-1995 1996-2007
2.1
2.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1980-1995 1996-2007
84. 84
New Zealand: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
48.4
38.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1985-1993 1994-2004
1.1
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1985-1993 1994-2004
85. 85
Spain: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
44.4
38.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1990-1998 1999-2007
2.5
3.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1990-1998 1999-2007
86. 86
Sweden: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
61.4
51.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1990-1998 1999-2007
1.3
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1990-1998 1999-2007
87. 87
Ireland-1: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
55.2
36.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1980-1988 1989-2007
2.8
6.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1980-1988 1989-2007
88. 88
Ireland-2: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
45.5
26.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GvtExpend%GDP
2008-2014 2015-2019
0.5
10.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2008-2014 2015-2019
89. 89
Slovenia: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
51.8
45.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
2009-2014 2015-2019
-1.3
3.5
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2009-2014 2015-2019
90. 90
Lithuania: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
40.9
33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
GvtExpend%GDP
2008-2011 2012-2019
0.6
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2008-2011 2012-2019
92. Root of the Ukraine’s growth failure: excessive size of government
Government revenue, expenditure, deficit as % of GDP, 1992-2020
92
93. 93
Excessive Size of Government kills economic growth in Ukraine
Government expenditure as % of GDP and GDP Growth
94. 94
One Trillion Dollars for Ukraine.
National strategy till 2040:
• NATO membership
• Corruption Perception Index – 6,0
• Rule of Law Index – 65
• Budget Surplus since 2025
• Optimum Size of Government (~ 20% GDP)
95. Engine for Ukraine’s economic success:
to reach Optimum Size of Government (~20% GDP) by 2040
95
99. 99
• Government Revenue as % of GDP – 20,5%
• Government Expenditure as % of GDP – 17,5%
• Budget Surplus as % of GDP – 3,0%
• Financing from the IMF as % of GDP – 0,0%
• Price level (USA = 100%) – 47,6%
• Real GDP growth rate per annum, 2022-2040 – 7,1%
• Real GDP per capita growth rate per annum, 2022-
2040 – 7,6%
• Real GDP growth index, 2020-2040 – 3,8 times
• Real GDP per capita growth index, 2020-2040 – 4,2
times
• GDP in US$ by ER, bn – 1053
• GDP in US$ by PPP in 2017 prices, bn – 1955
• GDP per capita in US$ by ER – 28077
• GDP per capita in US$ by PPP in 2017 prices – 52108
One Trillion Dollars for Ukraine.
Expected Results by 2040: