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ONE TRILLION DOLLARS
FOR UKRAINE
Andrei Illarionov,
Head of the Program, Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Kyiv, Ukraine
Senior Fellow, Center for Security Policy, Washington, USA
President, Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia
Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Kyiv, October 18, 2021
2
Ukraine’s 30 Years Main Achievements,
1991-2021
1. Ukraine’s independence
All Ukrainian regions voted for independence on 12.01.1991
3
2. Ukraine’s anti-imperial choice
Per cent of Ukrainians voted for pro-Ukrainian leaders and parties
4
3. Ukraine’s statehood
Rule of Law Index, V-Dem, 2020
5
4. Ukraine’s non-authoritarian political regime
Freedom in the World Index, Freedom House, 2021
6
5. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Aggressor’s plans, 2003: Tuzla
7
Тузла
5. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Aggressor’s plans, 2008: “Novorossia”
8
5. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Aggressor’s plans, 2012: “Historic Russia”
9
5. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Aggressor’s plans, 2021: all Ukraine
10
5. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Aggressor’s plans and fact, 2021
11
12
Ukraine’s 30 Years Main Failure:
Economic Growth
13
Ukraine’s GDP per capita in 2020 is 30% less than in 1989
GDP per capita growth index, 1989-2020 (1989=100%)
Russia
Poland
Ukraine
Belarus
Romania
Turkey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
14
Ukraine’s 30 years cumulative economic growth is negative
GDP per capita average annual growth rates in 1989-2020, %
3.1
2.7
2.4
1.6
0.6
-1.1
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Poland Turkey Belarus Romania Russia Ukraine
15
Ukraine’s GDP per capita in 2020 is one-third of Poland’s
GDP per capita in Ukraine as % of Poland, 1989-2020
141.0
46.6 50.4
38.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1989 2000 2010 2020
16
- To solve most of country’s problems (living standards,
health, education, social protection, science, defense,
foreign policy, etc.) one needs financial resources.
- Necessary financial resources can be produced by only
economic growth.
- Economic growth is the result of entrepreneurial
activities of millions of people affected by external
environment, social institutions and government policies.
Economic growth is the key to success
17
- External Security
- Internal Rule of Law
- Government policies: Optimum Size of Government
Three pillars of fast and sustainable economic growth
18
External security: NATO membership
Frequency of the USSR/Russia aggressions against neighbors
per 100 neighbors-years
0.72
0.00
0.97
1.55
0.00
2.72
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Total Against Nato members Against non-Nato
members
1945-1991 1991-2014
Source: author’s calculations.
© ИЭА
19
Legal Institutions and Economic Growth
Corruption and GDP per capita as % of OECD level, 1998−2019,
173 countries
20
Rule of Law and GDP per capita as % of OECD level, 1996−2019,
174 countries
21
22
Optimum Size of Government
23
Relative Size of General Government:
• Share of Government employees in total employment
• Share of Government-owned assets in all national assets
• Share of Government output in total national output
• Share of Government investments in total national investments
• Share of Government revenues in GDP
• Share of Government expenditures in GDP
24
Size of Government in the USA
Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1789−2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1789
1796
1803
1810
1817
1824
1831
1838
1845
1852
1859
1866
1873
1880
1887
1894
1901
1908
1915
1922
1929
1936
1943
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
2020
25
Size of Government in the World
Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
26
Size of Government in the World
Government expenditure in 3 groups of countries, 1870−2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
All countries Developed countries Developing countries Communist and post-Communist countries
27
Size of Government and Economic Growth:
High-Income Economies
28
y = -0,31x + 13,23
R² = 0,29
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
22 27 32 37 42 47 52
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in the USA, 1950−2020
29
y = -0,371x + 18,856
R² = 0,595
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Germany, 1950−2020
30
y = -0,645x + 25,572
R² = 0,681
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Japan, 1950−2020
31
Size of Government and Economic Growth
in OECD countries, 1960-2020
(24 countries, 6 decades, 144 observations)
А 1 percentage point increase in the share of
government spending in GDP was accompanied
with about a 0.1% decline in average annual
GDP growth rate
SP60
JA60
GR10
y = -0.11x + 7.18
R² = 0.45
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Average
annual
GDP
growth
rates,
%
Government expenditures as % of GDP
32
Size of Government and Economic Growth:
Transition Economies
33
y = -1,127x + 43,838
R² = 0,40
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Lithuania, 1994−2020
34
y = -1,569x + 63,196
R² = 0,547
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Latvia, 1994−2020
35
y = -1,074x + 45,619
R² = 0,522
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Estonia, 1994−2020
36
y = -0,462x + 16,637
R² = 0,304
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
15 20 25 30 35 40
GDP
Growth
Rate,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Georgia, 1994−2020
37
y = -0,995x + 26,383
R² = 0,274
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan,
1992−2020
38
y = -0,966x + 37,336
R² = 0,526
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Russia, 1994−2020
39
y = -0,652x + 27,798
R² = 0,142
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 35 40 45 50 55
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth in Ukraine, 1994−2020
40
Alb
Arm
Aze
Bel
Bul
Cro
Cze
Est
Geo
Hun
Kaz
Kyr
Lat
Lit
Mac
Mol
Mon
Pol
Rom Rus Slk
Sln
Taj
Ukr
Uzb
Chi
VN
y = -0.1945x + 10.987
R² = 0.6345
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Average
Annual
GDP
Growth
Rates,
%
Government Expenditures as % of GDP
Size of Government and Economic Growth
in Transition Economies, 1999−2020 (27 countries)
41
Russia
Romania
Brazil
Algeria
Egypt
S.Africa
Morocco
Turkey
Colombia
Iran
Mexico Argentina
Venezuela
Peru
Thailand
Indonesia
Ukraine
China
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Real
GDP
Growth
Rate,
%
Government Expenditure as % of GDP
y = -0,02x2 + 0,53x + 0,78
R² = 0,88
Economic Growth Curve:
Size of Government and Economic Growth
in 18 Large Middle-Income Countries, 1991–2000
15-
19%
Economic
Growth Curve
42
Economic Growth Curve in Practice:
High-, Middle-, and Low-Income countries
43
47.4
Ireland
25.9
37.5
Japan 36.9
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
Size of Government in Ireland and Japan, 1979−2018
44
8,366
Ireland
43,624
13,163
Japan 24,727
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000 1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
64%
176%
GDP per capita in Ireland and Japan, 1979−2018
45
3969
Ireland
11295
4939
Japan 9114
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
Expenditure
per
capita
by
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
80%
124%
Government Expenditure per capita in Ireland and Japan,
1979−2018
46
29.9
Chile
25.1
39.4
Mexico
24.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
Size of Government in Chile and Mexico, 1979−2018
47
5,345
Chile
16,324
5,968
Mexico
8,595
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000 1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
90%
190%
GDP per capita in Chile and Mexico, 1979−2018
48
1599
Chile
4097
2350
Mexico
2126
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
Expenditure
per
capita
by
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
68%
193%
Government Expenditure per capita in Chile and Mexico,
1979−2018
49
36.4
China
32.8
27.0
India
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
Size of Government in China and India, 1979−2018
50
760
China
10,004
895
India
5,453
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000 1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
85%
183%
GDP per capita in China and India, 1979−2018
51
277
China
3282
242
India
1497
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Government
Expenditure
per
capita
by
1990
International
Geary-Khamis
dollars
114%
219%
Government Expenditure per capita in China and India, 1979−2018
52
«Economic Miracles»:
doubling size of GDP per capita in 10 years
for a period of no less than 10 years
53
«Economic Miracles», 1951−2018
(GDP above 50 US$ bn by PPP)
Japan,
1951-1973
Spain,
1961-1970
Taiwan,
1962-1992
Portugal,
1964-1973
S. Korea,
1964-1979
S. Korea,
1981-1996
Tailand,
1985-1996
China,
1994-2018
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
54
Size of Government in Japan, 1951−2018
23,3-29,8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
55
Size of Government in Spain, 1951−2018
11,5-22,2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
56
Size of Government in Taiwan, 1951−2018
15,5-31,6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
57
Size of Government in Portugal, 1951−2018
20,4-22,2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
58
Size of Government in South Korea, 1951−2018
13,3-21,0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
59
Size of Government in Thailand, 1951−2018
14,1-21,9%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
60
Size of Government in China, 1951−2018
11,8-32,8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
61
Optimum Size of Government
62
Size of Government in «Economic Miracles»
Japan
Spain
Taiwan
Portugal
Korea
Thailand
China
12-33%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Government
Expenditure
as
%
of
GDP
63
How to reduce
Size of Government?
64
China’s Great Maneuver,
1979-1995
65
Government Expenditure as % of GDP in China, 1979–2001
Debt payments
Administration
Defense
Science
Economy and
subsidies
Social welfare
Education and culture
Other
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
GDP
per
cents
66
Government Expenditure per capita in China,
constant prices, 1979–2001
Debt payments
Administration
Defense
Science
Economy and
subsidies
Social welfare
Education and
culture
Other
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
US$
by
PPP
in
1999
prices
67
China’s Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
68
Russia’s Maneuver,
1998-2008
69
Russia’s Size of Government
Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1992-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
70
Russia’s Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
71
Is it possible to reduce
Size of Government in Ukraine?
Examples of democratic and transition countries.
72
Canada: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
73
Finland: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
74
Netherlands: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
75
Ireland: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
76
New Zealand: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
77
Spain: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
78
Sweden: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1950-2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
79
Lithuania: Government expenditure as % of GDP, 1991-2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
80
What happens when
Size of Government
is reduced?
81
Canada: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
2.4
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1982-1995 1996-2007
47.9
41.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1982-1995 1996-2007
82
Finland: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
58.4
47.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1991-1998 1999-2007
1.4
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1991-1998 1999-2007
83
Netherlands: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
51.9
42.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1980-1995 1996-2007
2.1
2.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1980-1995 1996-2007
84
New Zealand: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
48.4
38.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1985-1993 1994-2004
1.1
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1985-1993 1994-2004
85
Spain: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
44.4
38.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GvtExpend%GDP
1990-1998 1999-2007
2.5
3.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1990-1998 1999-2007
86
Sweden: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
61.4
51.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1990-1998 1999-2007
1.3
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1990-1998 1999-2007
87
Ireland-1: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
55.2
36.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GvtExpend%GDP
1980-1988 1989-2007
2.8
6.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
1980-1988 1989-2007
88
Ireland-2: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
45.5
26.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GvtExpend%GDP
2008-2014 2015-2019
0.5
10.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2008-2014 2015-2019
89
Slovenia: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
51.8
45.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
GvtExpend%GDP
2009-2014 2015-2019
-1.3
3.5
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2009-2014 2015-2019
90
Lithuania: Size of Government as % of GDP and GDP Growth
40.9
33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
GvtExpend%GDP
2008-2011 2012-2019
0.6
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annual Average GDP GR, %
2008-2011 2012-2019
91
Ukraine’s Economic Growth:
failure in 1992-2020
and
possible success in 2022-2040
Root of the Ukraine’s growth failure: excessive size of government
Government revenue, expenditure, deficit as % of GDP, 1992-2020
92
93
Excessive Size of Government kills economic growth in Ukraine
Government expenditure as % of GDP and GDP Growth
94
One Trillion Dollars for Ukraine.
National strategy till 2040:
• NATO membership
• Corruption Perception Index – 6,0
• Rule of Law Index – 65
• Budget Surplus since 2025
• Optimum Size of Government (~ 20% GDP)
Engine for Ukraine’s economic success:
to reach Optimum Size of Government (~20% GDP) by 2040
95
Ukraine’s GDP in 2017 PPP US$, 1992-2040
96
Ukraine’s GDP in current US$ bn, 1992-2040
97
Balassa-Samuelson Effect
GDP per capita and price level as % of USA
98
99
• Government Revenue as % of GDP – 20,5%
• Government Expenditure as % of GDP – 17,5%
• Budget Surplus as % of GDP – 3,0%
• Financing from the IMF as % of GDP – 0,0%
• Price level (USA = 100%) – 47,6%
• Real GDP growth rate per annum, 2022-2040 – 7,1%
• Real GDP per capita growth rate per annum, 2022-
2040 – 7,6%
• Real GDP growth index, 2020-2040 – 3,8 times
• Real GDP per capita growth index, 2020-2040 – 4,2
times
• GDP in US$ by ER, bn – 1053
• GDP in US$ by PPP in 2017 prices, bn – 1955
• GDP per capita in US$ by ER – 28077
• GDP per capita in US$ by PPP in 2017 prices – 52108
One Trillion Dollars for Ukraine.
Expected Results by 2040:
100
Thank You for Your attention!

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