Politics report-wave-2-part-2-eng-1

REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF
THE SOCIO-POLITICAL SURVEY
Друга хвиля, листопад 2016 р.
Second wave, November 2016

Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Research methodology
● Object of the research: Ukraine residents aged 18 years and older
● Subject of the research: socio-political situation in the country
● Objective: to identify the attitude of citizens of Ukraine to the socio-political and economic situation in the country, to
determine the electoral preferences and level of confidence towards the civil and public institutions, as well as to form
an estimate of judgments of the situation in the Donbas, e-declaration and other high-profile events
● Method of data collection: face-to-face interviews
● Population: 29,6 million people
● Population sample: probabilistic stratified in three stages with quota screening by age and sex in the last stage
● Sample size: 2,000 people
● Geography of the research: The survey was conducted during 21-28 November 2016 in 106 settlements in all provinces
of Ukraine except Crimea. Survey was not held in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
(provinces).
● Theoretical sampling error: 2.3% at 0.95 confidence level
● Distribution by provinces:
● East - Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk provinces.
● West - Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Volyn, Rivne provinces.
● North - Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv provinces.
● Center - Kirovohrad, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia provinces.
● South - Odessa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson provinces.

ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE
EUROPEAN UNION,
NEUTRAL STATUS OF UKRAINE

Conclusions: Attitude towards the European Union, neutral status of Ukraine
● Every second respondent thinks that sooner or later Ukraine will become a member of the European Union: 25.6% of the
respondents believe that it will happen in 5-10 years, and almost as many (24.7%) believe that it will happen in the longer term
of 15-20 years. At the same time, nearly 30% of respondents believe that Ukraine will never join the EU.
● Remarkably, in comparison with the previous wave of research the Ukrainians became more pessimistic about the prospects of
membership in the European Union: in May, according to our survey, 32.9% of respondents believed that Ukraine would join the
EU within 5-10 years, and only 24.6% believed that Ukraine would never become a member of the EU six months ago.
● More than half of respondents indicated that their attitude towards the EU has not changed in the recent years, 27.7% indicated
that it has changed for the worse, and 11.2% - for the better. It should be noted that in comparison with the results of May 2016
the number of those who improved their attitude towards the EU reduced, while the number of those whose attitude worsened
or remained unchanged has slightly increased.
● Almost 65% of respondents believe that the main reasons for non-granting a visa-free regime to Ukraine are connected to the
internal factors: 48% of respondents believe that the reason is that we frighten the Europeans with our problems, and 16.9%
believe that the reason is the failure of Ukraine to comply with the EU requirements. And according to 22.7% of respondents,
non-granting a visa-free regime is due to the external factors: 12.1% of respondents believe the EU is afraid to irritate Russia, and
one in ten believes that the reason is the EU being in deep crisis.
● Regarding the Ukraine's announcement of the neutral status for the purpose of removal of the problem of conflict with Russia
from the agenda, which is discussed by some politicians in the West, a quarter of respondents believe that this option is possible
provided a powerful army, economy and state. 16.2% of respondents agree that this is not the best outcome but it is acceptable
provided that Ukraine obtains reliable security guarantees from the West. Almost as many (15.7%) believe that it is an
impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine. 12% support the idea that this would be the best way out of the situation that
emerged, and 9% believe that such an idea is just a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give Ukraine into the Russian
influence.

Attitude towards the EU
25.6%
24.7%
31.4%
3.7% 14.6%
Will join the EU in 5 years
Will join the EU in 15-20 years
Will never join the EU
Other
Hard to tell
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
10. In your opinion, will Ukraine join the EU in the future and how soon may this happen?

25.6%
24.7%
31.4%
3.7%
14.6%
Other
Hard to tell
32.9%
30.6%
24.6%
0.0%
11.8%
November 2016 May 2016
respondents, n=2000

BREAKDOWN BY REGION, %
14.3%
20.9%
37.2%
6.6%
20.9%
31.7%
26.0%
28.8%
2.1%
11.4%
29.2%
30.7%
25.7%
4.4%
10.0%
20.6%
26.4%
39.0%
2.5%
11.5%
26.1%
15.2%
28.0%
5.3%
25.4%
Other
Hard to tell
Region
East West North Center South
respondents, n=2000

24.3%
25.9%
35.0%
3.5%
11.3%
26.6%
23.7%
28.3%
4.0%
17.3%
Gender
Male Female
36.0%
26.9%
25.7%
4.0%
7.4%
32.3%
24.5%
27.6%
2.5%
13.0%
23.8%
28.5%
30.2%
3.2%
14.3%
20.9%
22.0%
35.2%
4.6%
17.4%
Other
Hard to tell
Age
18-24 25-34 35-49 50 +
BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, %
respondents, n=2000

11. Has your attitude towards the EU changed within the last 3 years, and if yes – how?
11.2%
27.7%
55.4%
5.7%
Yes, has changed for the better
Yes, has changed for the worse
Has not changed
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000

11.2%
27.7%
55.4%
5.7%
Yes, has changed for the
better
Yes, has changed for the
worse
Has not changed
Hard to tell
20.7%
24.8%
52.0%
2.5%
respondents, n=2000

BREAKDOWN BY AGE, %
17.1%
23.4%
54.9%
4.6%
13.7%
24.5%
58.4%
3.4%
10.6%
29.0%
57.0%
3.4%
8.9%
29.4%
53.2%
8.5%
Has not changed
Hard to tell
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
respondents, n=2000

10.0%
28.2%
57.1%
4.7%
13.7%
26.6%
51.9%
7.8%
Has not changed
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, %
5.1%
28.6%
58.7%
7.7%
13.9%
28.1%
54.6%
3.4%
15.0%
16.5%
64.0%
4.4%
11.8%
33.8%
47.8%
6.6%
5.3%
32.2%
53.8%
8.7%
Region
respondents, n=2000

48.0%
16.9%
12.1%
10.6%
9.4%
3.1%
Ukraine frightens the Europeans with its problems
Ukraine does not comply with the EU requirements
EU is afraid to irritate Russia
EU is in a deep crisis
Hard to tell
Other
respondents, n=2000
64,9%
22,7%
Internal reasons
External reasons
12. Despite all promises, the EU has not yet granted Ukraine a visa-free regime. Why is it so?

12. Despite all promises, the EU has not yet granted Ukraine a visa-free regime. Why is it so?
48.0%
11.2%
9.7%
8.7%
7.7%
14.8%
48.6%
18.7%
17.8%
6.8%
2.3%
5.7%
51.0%
18.3%
12.1%
10.6%
1.5%
6.5%
45.9%
19.0%
8.2%
15.7%
1.1%
10.2%
46.2%
13.3%
9.5%
11.4%
5.7%
14.0%
Ukraine frightens the Europeans with its
problems
Ukraine does not comply with the EU
requirements
EU is afraid to irritate Russia
EU is in a deep crisis
Other
Hard to tell
Region
respondents, n=2000

13. Some Western politicians believe that Ukraine should announce a neutral status in order to remove the
problem of the conflict with Russia from the agenda. In your opinion, can this become a solution for the problem?
12.0%
16.2%
24.1%
9.0%
15.7%
1.2%
21.7%
Yes, it would be the best way out of the situation that
emerged
This is not the best outcome but it is acceptable provided
that Ukraine obtains reliable security guarantees from
the West
We could, if Ukraine had the powerful army, economy
and state
It is a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give
Ukraine into the Russian influence
It is an impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
Attitude towards the neural status of Ukraine
respondents, n=2000

13. Some Western politicians believe that Ukraine should announce a neutral status in order to remove the
problem of the conflict with Russia from the agenda. In your opinion, can this become a solution for the problem?
BREAKDOWN BY REGION AND AGE, %
13.1%
12.0%
28.0%
11.4%
12.0%
3.4%
20.0%
10.9%
17.1%
24.8%
11.5%
15.8%
0.3%
19.6%
10.6%
18.7%
24.1%
8.6%
18.2%
1.2%
18.7%
13.1%
15.4%
22.8%
7.5%
15.2%
1.1%
25.0%
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
Attitude towards the neural status of Ukraine
respondents, n=2000
9.7%
13.8%
19.9%
5.1%
21.4%
1.5%
28.6%
10.0%
18.0%
31.3%
8.4%
18.7%
1.1%
12.3%
9.4%
17.4%
24.8%
8.3%
15.9%
0.9%
23.3%
16.8%
14.3%
17.3%
11.3%
14.8%
0.8%
24.7%
13.6%
15.9%
23.9%
10.6%
7.6%
2.3%
26.1%
Yes, it would be the best way out of the situation that emerged
This is not the best outcome but it is acceptable provided that Ukraine obtains
reliable security guarantees from the West
We could, if Ukraine had the powerful army, economy and state
It is a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give Ukraine into the Russian
influence
It is an impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
Region
Age

ASSESSMENT OF THE
SITUATION IN THE DONBAS,
MINSK AGREEMENTS

Conclusions: Assessment of the situation in the Donbas, Minsk agreements (1)
● We have asked the respondents whether they are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements. It turned out that only 11.4% of respondents
are well acquainted with the content of the agreements. Most of the population (60.3%) has a superficial knowledge or heard about them in
the media, and one in four (25.8%) is absolutely unfamiliar with the contents of the agreements.
● Compared with the results of May, there is a significant decrease in the number of those who believe that Ukraine should adhere to the
implementation of the Minsk agreements (from 54.9% to 42.3%). Also slightly smaller proportion of respondents believes that the Minsk
agreements will solve the problem of conflict in the Donbas (21.8% - in May, 19.3% - in November).
● Respondents are quite pessimistic about the end of the conflict in the Donbas: 37.5% of respondents believe that the conflict will be frozen
and the search for solution will last for a decade, 38.5% believe that the conflict will be resolved within 2-5 years, and only 7.1% believe that
the Donbas conflict will be resolved within a year.
● Ukrainians don't have a clear idea on how to solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories:
 20% believe that a referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of
social transfers and other liabilities;
 19.6% think that the occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by force;
 11.1% - Ukraine should provide autonomy to the "LNR-DNR" in line with the Minsk agreements;
 21% - nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation changes for the better;
 Only 7,1% support the idea of a referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent states;
 21.1% did not answer this question at all.
● Compared to the results of the May survey, the number of those who consider it necessary to grant autonomy to the "LNR" and "DNR" in
accordance with Minsk agreements decreased by 7% during the past six months; 6% fewer are those who chose the option of holding a
referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities. In
contrast, the number of respondents who see no way out of the situation increased by 6.6%; there are more - by 5.5% - supporters of the idea
of waiting until the situation changes for the better; and there is a 2% increase in the number of those who support the idea of holding a
referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as independent states.

Conclusions: Assessment of the situation in the Donbas, Minsk agreements (2)
● If there was a referendum to be held in the nearest future on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories with termination of social
transfers and other liabilities, 38.3% of respondents would support such an initiative and vote affirmatively. One out of 5
respondents would vote against (20%), while 27.2% would not go to the referendum. 35.7% of residents of the East indicated that
they would not go to such a referendum, and 20.9% - that they would not support such an initiative. However, 21.9% would vote
affirmatively. For comparison, 49.5% of the residents of the Western provinces would support such an initiative, 38.6% - of the
Southern and the Northern ones, and 33% - of the population of the Central provinces.
● As for the causes of presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in Donetsk, 27.7% of respondents
noted that it is difficult to understand what is happening; 18.7% believe that the occupation authorities simply drove state
employees together to show a desired TV picture for the Kremlin; for 17.5% this indicates that some of the people support the
invaders, but this does not mean that everyone does; 15.9% believe that we should not believe what the invaders broadcast, and
11.8% believe that this is the evidence of formation of the own identity on the occupied territory of Donbas which is hostile to
Ukraine. And if respondents in the Eastern, Northern, Central and Southern provinces most frequently noted that it is difficult to
understand what is happening there, in the Western ones the respondents tended to believe that the occupation authorities were
creating a TV-picture for the Kremlin by means of the state employees.

14. Please indicate whether you are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements.
Donbas issue
11.4%
60.3%
25.8%
0.3% 2.1%
Yes, I am familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements
Superficially familiar, heard about it from the media
Not familiar
Other
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000

20.4%
64.8%
13.8%
1.0%
0.0%
13.2%
56.6%
29.0%
0.2%
0.9%
5.3%
65.8%
26.8%
0.0%
2.1%
12.1%
60.4%
26.6%
0.3%
0.5%
8.7%
56.1%
26.9%
0.4%
8.0%
Yes, I am familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements
Superficially familiar, heard about it from the media
Not familiar
Other
Hard to tell
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

13.4%
63.3%
20.9%
0.1%
2.4%
9.9%
57.9%
29.8%
0.5%
1.9%
Gender
Male Female
8.0%
46.9%
42.9%
0.6%
1.7%
9.9%
60.6%
28.3%
0.3%
0.9%
13.0%
60.9%
23.6%
0.2%
2.2%
12.1%
63.3%
21.7%
0.3%
2.7%
Yes, I am familiar with the
content of the Minsk
agreements
Superficially familiar, heard
about it from the media
Not familiar
Other
Hard to tell
Age
18-24 25-34 35-49 50 +
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

15. In your opinion, should Ukraine adhere to the Minsk agreements?
42.3%
26.0%
31.7%
Yes No Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

42.3%
26.0%
31.7%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
54.9%
27.0%
18.0%
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

43.8%
28.4%
27.8%
41.0%
24.1%
34.8%
Gender
Male Female
32.6%
21.1%
46.3%
40.1%
31.4%
28.6%
42.0%
25.1%
32.9%
45.9%
25.4%
28.7%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Age
18-24 25-34 35-49 50 +
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

BREAKDOWN BY GENDER, %
45.9%
25.0%
29.1%
39.5%
38.1%
22.4%
40.1%
23.6%
36.3%
48.9%
15.1%
36.0%
37.9%
25.0%
37.1%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

16. Will Minsk agreements solve a problem of conflict in the Donbas?
19.3%
52.3%
28.4%
Yes No Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

19.3%
52.3%
28.4%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
21.8%
61.5%
16.7%
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

19.2%
56.2%
24.6%
19.4%
49.1%
31.5%
Gender
Male Female
11.4%
47.4%
41.1%
17.7%
57.8%
24.5%
18.4%
52.3%
29.2%
22.5%
50.9%
26.5%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Age
18-24 25-34 35-49 50 +
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

17. In your opinion, when will the conflict in the Donbas end?
7.1%
21.7%
16.8%
37.5%
3.1%
13.7%
Within a year
In the nearest 2-3 years
In 5 years
This conflict will be frozen and the solution won't be
found for decade
Other
Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

6.9%
20.7%
15.6%
40.9%
3.1%
12.8%
7.6%
24.0%
19.2%
30.6%
3.0%
15.6%
Within a year
In the nearest 2-3 years
In 5 years
This conflict will be frozen and
the solution won't be found
for decade
Other
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
17. In your opinion, when will the conflict in the Donbas end?
6.1%
10.7%
17.9%
41.3%
5.1%
18.9%
4.8%
29.0%
21.5%
36.1%
1.4%
7.3%
11.8%
19.8%
12.7%
42.8%
2.4%
10.6%
5.2%
19.2%
17.9%
41.5%
1.6%
14.6%
8.3%
23.9%
12.1%
25.0%
7.2%
23.5%
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

18. The West demands that Ukraine holds elections in the “LDNR” before the border with Russia is
taken under control. How should Ukraine act?
10.8%
26.4%
45.7%
2.1%
14.9%
Ukraine should comply with this demand
Ukraine should not comply with this demand until the
border with Russia is taken under control
There is no sence at all for Ukraine to hold elections on
the occupied territories
Other
Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

18. The West demands that Ukraine holds elections in the “LDNR” before the border with Russia is taken under control.
How should Ukraine act?
7.1%
24.0%
53.6%
3.6%
11.7%
7.8%
31.5%
50.7%
1.6%
8.4%
7.1%
26.8%
51.3%
0.6%
14.2%
19.8%
22.3%
37.4%
1.9%
18.7%
11.0%
25.0%
36.0%
4.2%
23.9%
Ukraine should comply with this demand
Ukraine should not comply with this demand until the border with
Russia is taken under control
There is no sence at all for Ukraine to hold elections on the occupied
territories
Other
Hard to tell
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

19. How should Ukraine solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories?
11.1%
20.0%
7.1%
21.0%
19.6%
21.1%
Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line with
the Minsk agreements
A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR"
and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination
of social transfers and other liabilities
A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR"
and "DNR" recognition as the independent states
Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until
the situation changes for the better
Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be
brought back by force
Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

15.4%
25.8%
20.9%
18.2%
5.2%
14.4%
21.0%
20.0%
19.6%
11.1%
7.1%
21.1%
Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting
until the situation changes for the better
A referendum should be held on recognition of the
"LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with
termination of social transfers and other liabilities
Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to
be brought back by force
Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line
with the Minsk agreements
A referendum should be held on recognition of the
"LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent
states
Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

9.2%
14.8%
16.3%
23.5%
12.8%
23.5%
5.9%
26.3%
4.3%
24.2%
25.1%
14.2%
8.0%
24.8%
5.9%
19.2%
23.6%
18.6%
17.0%
12.4%
8.0%
19.8%
18.1%
24.7%
17.0%
18.2%
5.3%
18.2%
12.1%
29.2%
Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line with the Minsk
agreements
A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as
the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other
liabilities
A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR"
recognition as the independent states
Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation
changes for the better
Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by
force
Hard to tell
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

20. If there was a referendum to be held tomorrow on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories
with termination of social transfers and other liabilities, how would you vote?
38.3%
20.0%
27.2%
14.6%
Yes, I would support this initiative
No, I would not support this initiative
I would not participate in such a referendum
Hard to tell
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

38.3%
20.0%
27.2%
14.6%
Yes, I would support this initiative
No, I would not support this initiative
I would not participate in such a
referendum
Hard to tell
42.2%
24.6%
23.1%
10.1%
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

36.1%
21.5%
28.8%
13.6%
42.8%
16.9%
23.8%
16.5%
Yes, I would support this
initiative
No, I would not support this
initiative
I would not participate in such
a referendum
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
21.9%
20.9%
35.7%
21.4%
49.5%
18.5%
21.5%
10.5%
38.6%
18.9%
33.9%
8.6%
33.0%
24.7%
29.1%
13.2%
38.6%
16.7%
18.9%
25.8%
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

21. In your opinion, presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in
Donetsk is the evidence of:
27.7%
18.7%
17.5%
15.9%
11.8%
7.3%
1.1%
Tt is difficult to understand what is happening there
Occupation authorities drove state employees together
to show a desired TV picture for the Kremlin
This indicates that some of the people support the
invaders, but this does not mean that everyone supports
them
We should not believe what the invaders broadcast
Own identity hostile to Ukraine is being formed of the
occupied territory of Donbas
Hard to tell
Other
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

21. In your opinion, presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in
Donetsk is the evidence of:
29.6%
13.3%
18.4%
16.8%
12.2%
9.7%
0.0%
22.6%
24.7%
18.9%
17.1%
12.8%
3.7%
0.2%
29.5%
15.3%
22.4%
15.0%
9.1%
6.8%
1.8%
26.4%
20.3%
15.9%
15.9%
11.5%
9.3%
0.5%
34.1%
15.2%
10.2%
14.4%
13.6%
9.5%
3.0%
Tt is difficult to understand what is happening there
Occupation authorities drove state employees together to show a
desired TV picture for the Kremlin
This indicates that some of the people support the invaders, but this
does not mean that everyone supports them
We should not believe what the invaders broadcast
Own identity hostile to Ukraine is being formed of the occupied
territory of Donbas
Hard to tell
Other
Region
Donbas issue
respondents, n=2000

FUTURE
AND THE ASSESSMENT OF
HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS

Conclusions: Future and the assessment of high-profile events
● In anticipation of 2017 respondents pondered over events that might happen next year. 37.2% don't expect any fundamental changes, but
23.9% believe that next year early parliamentary elections will be held, and 17.2% think that there will be early presidential election, whereas
7.6% predict a violent overthrow of Poroshenko. One in ten anticipates that in 2017 Russia will begin a new military advance in Ukraine.
Comfortingly, there is a part of the respondents optimistic about the next year: 21.6% expect the emergence of new political leaders who will
change the country for the better, and 12.1% expect that there will be stabilization and economic growth in Ukraine.
● However, 45.4% of respondents think that early election to the Verkhovna Rada won't happen anytime soon, although 37.7% are convinced of
its necessity.
● If one looks at a longer term, 21.2% of respondents believe that in 15 years Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the
level of development of countries of the Central Europe; 13.7% think that Ukraine will be strong non-aligned country with a strong economics,
army and navy; 8.5% suppose that Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-
Black Sea region. However, according to 18.1% Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today; 10.9% expect that Ukraine will be torn
into parts by its neighbors; 6.4% think that Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia. Thus, 43.4% of respondents are
poised for positive changes within next 15 years, and 35.4% - for negative ones.
● Hope for a better future for Ukraine originates in every third respondent from the possibility of appearance of a new generation of politicians
and public figures (33.1%), in every tenth - strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West (10.9%). For 8% of Ukrainian nation it is
connected to our maturing in 25 years of independence, as well as weakening of the oligarchs. For 6% this hope is tied with a rapid spread of
information and technology revolution that creates new opportunities. However, one in five respondents sees no prospects for a better future
of Ukraine.
● The biggest threat to the future of Ukraine as according to 71% of respondents is corruption, half of the respondents added politicians and
oligarchs to the threats, 30% included Russia, and 23% of respondents believe that the threat to Ukraine is Ukrainians themselves.

22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017?
23.9%
21.6%
17.2%
12.1%
10.7%
7.6%
37.2%
1.8%
9.7%
Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada
New political leaders will emerge and start changing the
country for the better
Early presidential elections will be held
Stabilization and economic growth will begin
Russia will start a new military advance in Ukraine
A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko will take place
Nothing will change fundamentally
Other
Hard to tell
Future and the assessment of high-profile events
respondents, n=2000

BREAKDOWN BY AGE, %
21.1%
9.7%
8.0%
10.3%
17.7%
22.3%
33.7%
1.1%
14.9%
24.5%
20.5%
9.3%
12.7%
10.9%
18.6%
37.3%
0.9%
8.4%
23.6%
17.2%
10.3%
7.6%
11.3%
22.6%
37.8%
2.2%
8.8%
24.5%
17.6%
5.0%
11.6%
11.6%
22.2%
37.7%
2.2%
9.6%
Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada
Early presidential elections will be held
A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko will take place
Russia will start a new military advance in Ukraine
Stabilization and economic growth will begin
New political leaders will emerge and start changing the
country for the better
Other
Hard to tell
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
respondents, n=2000

26.5%
18.7%
7.6%
9.2%
12.3%
21.2%
39.3%
2.0%
8.4%
18.6%
14.3%
7.4%
13.7%
11.6%
22.4%
32.9%
1.3%
12.5%
Early elections to the Verkhovna
Rada
Early presidential elections will be
held
A violent overthrow of Petro
Poroshenko will take place
Russia will start a new military
advance in Ukraine
Stabilization and economic growth
will begin
New political leaders will emerge and
start changing the country for the…
Other
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
27.6%
12.8%
6.6%
2.6%
6.1%
13.8%
33.2%
4.6%
15.3%
20.1%
16.2%
9.4%
12.1%
16.4%
26.0%
34.7%
0.2%
8.9%
25.7%
18.6%
5.3%
9.4%
15.0%
25.1%
44.8%
2.1%
7.1%
24.2%
19.8%
8.0%
11.5%
8.5%
17.6%
39.3%
0.5%
10.7%
25.0%
17.0%
7.6%
14.8%
10.2%
21.2%
31.8%
3.8%
9.1%
Region
respondents, n=2000

37.7%
45.4%
16.9%
Yes No Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000
23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna Rada?

39.9%
45.0%
15.1%
33.1%
46.2%
20.7%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna Rada?
37.8%
41.8%
20.4%
32.0%
58.0%
10.0%
45.1%
37.5%
17.4%
34.9%
47.5%
17.6%
41.3%
34.5%
24.2%
Region
respondents, n=2000

33.1%
10.9%
8.1%
5.9%
5.6%
8.2%
21.9%
1.6%
4.7%
Emergence of a new generation of politicians and public
figures
Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West
Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25 years of
independence
Rapid spread of information, everything secret becomes
rapidly revealed
Technology revolution that creates new opportunities
Weakening of the oligarchs
I see no prospects for a better future of Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000
24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine?

24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine?
21.4%
8.7%
4.1%
7.7%
5.1%
2.6%
36.7%
5.1%
8.7%
34.5%
12.1%
11.4%
6.8%
5.5%
6.6%
19.2%
1.1%
2.7%
39.2%
15.6%
5.6%
2.9%
6.2%
5.9%
19.8%
1.8%
2.9%
30.2%
8.2%
8.2%
7.4%
5.8%
12.9%
20.3%
0.5%
6.3%
35.6%
8.0%
8.7%
4.9%
4.9%
11.4%
20.5%
1.1%
4.9%
Emergence of a new generation of politicians and public figures
Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West
Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25 years of independence
Rapid spread of information, everything secret becomes rapidly
revealed
Technology revolution that creates new opportunities
Weakening of the oligarchs
I see no prospects for a better future of Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
Region
respondents, n=2000

21.2%
18.1%
13.7%
10.9%
8.5%
6.4%
3.1%
18.2%
Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level of
development of countries of the Central Europe
Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a strong economics,
army and navy
Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors
Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland,
Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region
Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia
Other
Hard to tell
26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years?
respondents, n=2000
Positive
changes
Negative
changes
43,4% 35,4%

BREAKDOWN BY AGE, %
32.6%
10.9%
2.9%
18.9%
5.7%
10.9%
4.6%
13.7%
22.4%
14.6%
6.8%
17.1%
9.0%
9.6%
3.1%
17.4%
18.9%
16.0%
5.4%
21.1%
8.6%
11.1%
2.2%
16.7%
19.1%
12.6%
7.6%
16.6%
8.9%
11.3%
3.3%
20.5%
Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will
reach the level of development of countries of the
Central Europe
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a
strong economics, army and navy
Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance
with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the
Baltic-Black Sea region
Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed
by Russia
Other
Hard to tell
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
respondents, n=2000

6.6%
8.7%
7.7%
25.5%
7.7%
10.2%
4.1%
29.6%
26.7%
13.5%
3.9%
18.0%
10.5%
12.6%
3.4%
11.4%
25.1%
12.1%
5.0%
22.7%
10.0%
6.2%
2.4%
16.5%
19.2%
12.9%
11.3%
13.2%
6.3%
16.8%
0.3%
20.1%
20.5%
20.8%
4.5%
13.6%
6.8%
6.4%
6.8%
20.5%
Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level
of development of countries of the Central Europe
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a strong
economics, army and navy
Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland,
Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region
Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia
Other (please specify)
Hard to tell
Region
respondents, n=2000

27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine?
71.0%
49.6%
48.4%
30.2%
23.1%
9.1%
5.6%
4.1%
4.1%
1.5%
1.6%
2.4%
Corruption
Politicians
Oligarchs
Russia
Ukrainians themselves
Environmental problems
Collapse of the infrastructure
Technological innovations which make us
uncompetitive
Expansion of the West
Islamic extremists
Other
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000

27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine?
59.7%
32.7%
40.8%
20.4%
31.6%
0.5%
10.2%
6.1%
6.6%
8.2%
1.5%
6.6%
74.0%
47.7%
49.3%
41.1%
24.2%
2.5%
2.3%
2.5%
3.0%
10.3%
0.7%
0.2%
77.3%
43.4%
49.0%
38.3%
19.8%
1.2%
8.8%
4.1%
2.7%
12.1%
0.9%
1.8%
68.1%
61.3%
52.5%
22.0%
26.6%
1.6%
4.9%
5.2%
5.2%
6.6%
0.5%
2.5%
70.1%
50.0%
53.4%
20.5%
14.4%
0.8%
4.2%
3.8%
4.2%
7.2%
5.7%
3.4%
Corruption
Politicians
Oligarchs
Russia
Ukrainians themselves
Islamic extremists
Collapse of the infrastructure
Technological innovations which make us uncompetitive
Expansion of the West
Environmental problems
Other
Hard to tell
Region
respondents, n=2000

ASSESSMENT OF THE
MAIDAN EVENTS

Conclusions: Assessment of the Maidan events
● Almost every fourth respondent believes it is too early to sum up the Revolution of dignity and the events on the Maidan since the
revolution is not over yet. One in five indicated that did not support Maidan either back then or today, same number of
respondents noted that it was a great historic event, which marked a beginning of change for the better, and same number replied
that the regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left.
● Comparing to the results of the survey in May, the number of those who chose the answer "Yanukovych's regime brought people
to despair, therefore there was no alternative left" significantly decreased - from 28% to 20%. It can be also noted that there was
less of those who believe that it is too early to talk about results because the revolution is not over (from 26.3% to 23.5%), and
those who think that Maidan was a special operation of Russian or Western intelligence services (from 14.4 % to 11.4%); but the
number of those who currently can not express their assessment of these events increased (from 4.1% to 6.7%).

28. How do you assess the Maidan events and the Revolution of dignity?
23.5%
21.7%
21.0%
19.9%
17.6%
12.1%
6.2%
5.2%
0.7%
6.7%
Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too early to talk
about the conclusions
I did not support Maidan either back then or today
It was a great historic event, which marked a beginning
of change for the better
Regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair,
therefore there was no alternative left
We have done everything right but did not realise the
consequences in full
I would not have supported Maidan if I had known what
the situation would be today
This was a special operation of Russian intelligence
services to make a last straw on Ukraine
This was a special operation of the West
Other
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000

26.3%
20.3%
20.3%
28.3%
17.7%
13.4%
6.8%
7.6%
0.7%
4.1%
23.5%
21.7%
21.0%
19.9%
17.6%
12.1%
6.2%
5.2%
0.7%
6.7%
Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too early
to talk about the conclusions
I did not support Maidan either back then or
today
It was a great historic event, which marked a
beginning of change for the better
Regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair,
therefore there was no alternative left
We have done everything right but did not realise
the consequences in full
I would not have supported Maidan if I had
known what the situation would be today
This was a special operation of Russian
intelligence services
Other
Hard to tell
respondents, n=2000

5.6%
18.4%
13.8%
14.3%
5.6%
4.1%
4.6%
29.6%
1.0%
18.4%
36.5%
29.5%
24.0%
22.8%
10.3%
5.3%
3.2%
11.2%
1.1%
1.4%
22.1%
23.0%
22.1%
18.0%
15.0%
5.3%
6.2%
20.6%
0.0%
3.5%
14.3%
23.1%
11.8%
15.9%
14.0%
9.1%
7.1%
28.6%
0.0%
3.8%
14.4%
18.9%
26.1%
13.3%
13.3%
6.4%
5.3%
25.0%
1.5%
14.8%
Region
19.3%
23.0%
19.7%
17.4%
12.3%
6.4%
6.2%
23.4%
0.7%
5.6%
24.3%
24.7%
20.3%
18.1%
11.6%
5.7%
3.2%
18.1%
0.6%
8.9%
It was a great historic event, which marked a
beginning of change for the better
Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too
early to talk about the conclusions
Regime of Yanukovych brought people to
despair, therefore there was no alternative left
We have done everything right but did not
realise the consequences in full
I would not have supported Maidan if I had
known what the situation would be today
This was a special operation of Russian
intelligence services
I did not support Maidan either back then or
today
Other
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
respondents, n=2000

Conclusions: Social tension (1)
● Among respondents there still is a category of people ready to suffer deterioration of their circumstances for the sake of real
reform for a the year (19.9%), 2-3 years (15.7%) and even 3-5 years (5.6%). However, 58.8% of respondents say they can not
endure it any longer. It should be noted that according to figures there was no significant dynamics over the past six months.
● There is a clear dependence of the underlying strength on age: the older the respondents are, the greater is the percentage of
those who are no longer able to endure the deterioration. Most of such are among those interviewed of a senior age group -
64.1%. However, 35.9% of respondents aged 50 years and more are ready to suffer little longer provided the real reforms are
carried out. Among young people under 35, this figure is somewhat different - half of them can no longer endure; but same much
people are willing to endure the unfavorable situation: 23% - for a year, 16%- for 2-3 years, and 10% - for 3-5 years.
● In a regional context it is the most difficult to endure worsening of their conditions waiting for the reforms for inhabitants of the
South (73.1%) and East (67.9%). A somewhat larger is the strength among residents of the Western Region.
● Over the past six months, according to our respondents the threat of social upheaval and its escalation into a civil conflict has
increased: in May, 63.9% of respondents admitted the possibility of social upheaval (22.4% of them indicated that there is a high
likelihood of such a threat, and 41.5 % - low probability), in November there was only 68.3% of such respondents, and significantly
increased the proportion of those who noted a high probability of the threat of a social explosion - 39.2%; 29.1% of respondents
indicated a low probability of this threat. Remarkably, 30.2% of respondents indicated that there is no such threat in May, while in
November it was only 21%.
● It is notable that the respondents of the Central and the Northern regions indicated the threat of a social upheaval more
frequently (76.1% and 73.5%, respectively), and the least frequently - those of the Eastern region (58.7%).

Висновки: Social tension (2)
● Compared to the results of the May survey, the share of those who believe that forceful upheaval in Ukraine would be supported
by most or half of the population increased (from 29% to 40.5%). If in May 61% of respondents noted that it would not be
supported or would be supported by a small minority of the population, in November the number of respondents who think same
way considerably decreased - to 45.1%. Thus, we pinpoint a growth of the population's discontent with the situation in the
country, together with the increasing social tension.
● But the idea of the dictatorship of a tough leader at the head of state fell short of public support: in May it was supported by
41.3% of the respondents, whereas in November - only by 34.5%. The older the respondents are, the greater is the percentage of
supporters of this idea: if among youth aged18-24 this number is 28.6%, among respondents aged 50 and over - it is 38.2%.
● Also, there was a 10% reduction in a number of supporters of a military dictatorship under the condition that it would provide real
growth of living standards, fight with corruption, and stability (32.4% in November).

19.9%
15.7%
5.6%
58.8%
1 year
2-3 years
3-5 years
I can not endure it any longer
Social tension
29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms
in Ukraine?
respondents, n=2000

19.9%
15.7%
5.6%
58.8%
1 year
2-3 years
3-5 years
I can not endure it any
longer
19.4%
13.4%
7.3%
57.0%
Social tension
in Ukraine?
respondents, n=2000

20.7%
13.1%
5.5%
60.7%
18.4%
21.1%
5.7%
54.8%
Рiк
2-3 роки
3-5 рокiв
Немає уже можливостi
терпiти
Type of settlement
Місто Село
29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms in
Ukraine?
15.3%
11.2%
5.6%
67.9%
22.6%
20.3%
8.2%
48.9%
20.1%
20.1%
5.3%
54.6%
21.4%
14.0%
5.2%
59.3%
16.7%
8.3%
1.9%
73.1%
Region
Східний Західний Північний Центральний Південний
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

21.6%
17.1%
6.3%
55.1%
18.6%
14.6%
5.0%
61.8%
Gender
Male Female
27.4%
21.1%
4.0%
47.4%
21.7%
19.3%
5.3%
53.7%
18.9%
15.5%
7.1%
58.5%
17.8%
12.9%
5.2%
64.1%
1 year
2-3 years
3-5 years
I can not endure it any longer
Age
18-24 25-34 35-49 50 +
Social tension
in Ukraine?
respondents, n=2000

30. In your opinion, how big is a threat of a social upheaval in Ukraine and its and its escalation into a civil conflict (war)?
39.2%
29.1%
21.0%
10.7%
There is a high probability of this threat
There is a low probability of this threat
I think there is no such threat
Hard to tell
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

30. In your opinion, how big is a threat of a social upheaval in Ukraine and its and its escalation into a civil
conflict (war)?
26.0%
32.7%
27.0%
14.3%
39.5%
25.3%
30.1%
5.0%
44.0%
29.5%
17.4%
9.1%
42.6%
33.5%
14.0%
9.9%
37.5%
26.1%
15.9%
20.5%
There is a high probability of this threat
There is a low probability of this threat
I think there is no such threat
Hard to tell
Region
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

31. In your opinion, how many people are ready to support a forceful upheaval in Ukraine?
17.9%
22.6%
36.5%
8.6%
14.4%
Yes, a majority of population
Yes, a half of population
No, it would be supported by a minority of population
No, it would not be supported by anyone
Hard to tell
Social tension
respondents, n=2000
40,5%

17.9%
22.6%
36.5%
8.6%
14.4%
No, it would be supported by a
minority of population
No, it would not be supported by
anyone
Hard to tell
9.8%
19.4%
39.1%
21.5%
10.2%
Social tension
respondents, n=2000
40,5% 29,2%

BREAKDOWN BY REGION AND GENDER, %
5.1%
19.4%
37.8%
17.9%
19.9%
17.1%
23.5%
40.2%
11.2%
8.0%
18.0%
24.8%
39.5%
5.6%
12.1%
27.7%
17.9%
34.3%
7.7%
12.4%
15.2%
27.3%
28.4%
2.3%
26.9%
No, it would be supported by a minority of population
No, it would not be supported by anyone
Hard to tell
Region
n=2000
База: всі респонденти
Social tension
respondents, n=2000
18.9%
23.5%
37.4%
6.7%
13.5%
17.1%
21.9%
35.7%
10.1%
15.2%
Gender
Male Female

32. Do you agree that nowadays Ukraine needs a dictatorship with a tough leader at the head of state?
34.5%
48.9%
16.6%
Yes No Hard to tell
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

34.5%
48.9%
16.6%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
41.3%
52.5%
6.2%
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

32.7%
43.9%
23.5%
30.4%
60.5%
9.1%
38.1%
48.4%
13.6%
37.4%
48.9%
13.7%
34.5%
34.1%
31.4%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Region
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

33. Would you support a military dictatorship if it provides a real growth of living standards, fight
with corruption, and stability?
32.4%
50.7%
16.9%
Yes No Hard to tell
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

32.4%
50.7%
16.9%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
41.6%
51.9%
6.5%
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

23.5%
57.1%
19.4%
33.3%
57.8%
8.9%
33.6%
49.6%
16.8%
37.6%
47.0%
15.4%
28.8%
40.9%
30.3%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Region
Social tension
respondents, n=2000

Politics report-wave-2-part-2-eng-1

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