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SEEING IS BELIEVING?
UKCCSRC, Glasgow
8 September 2015
Phil Hare, Director
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
DELIVERING ON PROMISES OF COST REDUCTION…
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 2
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 3
The road so far… Future cost evolution
Source: Fraunhofer Institute Source: Pöyry, BNEF, IRENA, EPA, NREL, Black & Veatch, DOE, DECC, STA
PHOTOVOLTAICS…
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 4
BATTERIES…
Li-ion cells (€/kWh, 2014 money)
Source: Pöyry, BNEF, EIA, Navigant, McKinsey, Tesla, Nature Climate Change
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
CFD AUCTION ROUND 1
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 5
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
OFFSHORE WIND…
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 6
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
FIRM PROMISE…OR ASPIRATION?
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 7
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
CCS…
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 8
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
COST REDUCTION TASK FORCE SET EXPECTATIONS
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 9
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
PUTTING FLESH ON THE BONES – ROLL OUT SCENARIOS
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 10
20252020/2021 2030
1 Mt 9 Mt 36 Mt
5 Mt
2 Mt 6 Mt 16 Mt
17 Mt
Shoreline terminals
Storage only
EOR fields
New offshore pipelines
New onshore pipelines
Re-use offshore pipelines
Re-use onshore pipelines
Goldeneye
5/42
aquifer
Captain aquifer
Teesside –
St. Fergus
trunk
pipeline
Feeder 10
EOR field 1
(2022)
EOR field 2
(2025) EOR field 3
EOR field 4
EOR field 5
CNS
aquifer 2
New parallel
onshore
pipeline
New over-sized
trunk pipeline
Existing over-sized
Goldeneye pipeline
20252020/2021 2030
1 Mt 5 Mt 11 Mt
2 Mt 8 Mt 29 Mt
Shoreline terminals
Storage only
EOR fields
New offshore pipelines
New onshore pipelines
Re-use offshore pipelines
Re-use onshore pipelines
Goldeneye
5/42
aquifer
Captain
aquifer
(2022)Feeder 10
Existing over-sized
Goldeneye pipeline
SNS aquifer 2
CNS aquifer 2
Potential EOR
development
New over-sized
trunk pipeline
20252020/2021 2030
1 Mt 5 Mt 9 Mt
2 Mt 6 Mt 13 Mt
Shoreline terminals
Storage only
EOR fields
New offshore pipelines
New onshore pipelines
Re-use offshore pipelines
Re-use onshore pipelines
Goldeneye
5/42
aquifer
Captain aquifer
Feeder 10
CNS
aquifer 2
5 Mt 9 Mt
5 Mt
2 Mt
12 Mt
SNS
aquifer 2
SNS
aquifer 3
EIS
hydrocarbon
Potential EOR
development
New over-sized
trunk pipeline
Existing over-sized
Goldeneye pipeline
Strike prices for concentrated
Concentrated
Balanced
CO2-EOR
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
CCC WORK FOLLOWED UP
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 11
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER
CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 12
DELIVERING COST REDUCTION
Fewer projects, faster timescales…how can/should research efforts support this?
www.poyry.comCOPYRIGHT©PÖYRY

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Opening Keynote - Phil Hare, Pöyry - UKCCSRC Strathclyde Biannual 8-9 September 2015

  • 1. SEEING IS BELIEVING? UKCCSRC, Glasgow 8 September 2015 Phil Hare, Director
  • 2. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY DELIVERING ON PROMISES OF COST REDUCTION… TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 2
  • 3. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 3 The road so far… Future cost evolution Source: Fraunhofer Institute Source: Pöyry, BNEF, IRENA, EPA, NREL, Black & Veatch, DOE, DECC, STA PHOTOVOLTAICS…
  • 4. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 4 BATTERIES… Li-ion cells (€/kWh, 2014 money) Source: Pöyry, BNEF, EIA, Navigant, McKinsey, Tesla, Nature Climate Change
  • 5. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY CFD AUCTION ROUND 1 TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 5
  • 6. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY OFFSHORE WIND… TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 6
  • 7. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY FIRM PROMISE…OR ASPIRATION? TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 7
  • 8. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY CCS… TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 8
  • 9. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY COST REDUCTION TASK FORCE SET EXPECTATIONS TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 9
  • 10. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY PUTTING FLESH ON THE BONES – ROLL OUT SCENARIOS TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 10 20252020/2021 2030 1 Mt 9 Mt 36 Mt 5 Mt 2 Mt 6 Mt 16 Mt 17 Mt Shoreline terminals Storage only EOR fields New offshore pipelines New onshore pipelines Re-use offshore pipelines Re-use onshore pipelines Goldeneye 5/42 aquifer Captain aquifer Teesside – St. Fergus trunk pipeline Feeder 10 EOR field 1 (2022) EOR field 2 (2025) EOR field 3 EOR field 4 EOR field 5 CNS aquifer 2 New parallel onshore pipeline New over-sized trunk pipeline Existing over-sized Goldeneye pipeline 20252020/2021 2030 1 Mt 5 Mt 11 Mt 2 Mt 8 Mt 29 Mt Shoreline terminals Storage only EOR fields New offshore pipelines New onshore pipelines Re-use offshore pipelines Re-use onshore pipelines Goldeneye 5/42 aquifer Captain aquifer (2022)Feeder 10 Existing over-sized Goldeneye pipeline SNS aquifer 2 CNS aquifer 2 Potential EOR development New over-sized trunk pipeline 20252020/2021 2030 1 Mt 5 Mt 9 Mt 2 Mt 6 Mt 13 Mt Shoreline terminals Storage only EOR fields New offshore pipelines New onshore pipelines Re-use offshore pipelines Re-use onshore pipelines Goldeneye 5/42 aquifer Captain aquifer Feeder 10 CNS aquifer 2 5 Mt 9 Mt 5 Mt 2 Mt 12 Mt SNS aquifer 2 SNS aquifer 3 EIS hydrocarbon Potential EOR development New over-sized trunk pipeline Existing over-sized Goldeneye pipeline Strike prices for concentrated Concentrated Balanced CO2-EOR
  • 11. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY CCC WORK FOLLOWED UP TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 11
  • 12. COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY TUESDAY 8TH SEPTEMBER CCS IN THE UK - SEEING IS BELIEVING 12 DELIVERING COST REDUCTION Fewer projects, faster timescales…how can/should research efforts support this?