UNIMED, General Assembly 2019

1. LABOUR MARKET, YOUTH
EMPLOYABILITYAND
ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN
Francesca Rosso, European Training Foundation
12 December 2019, Rome
UNIMED General Assembly 2019, Shaping the Mediterranean from Cooperation to Integration

2. CHANGING LABOUR
MARKETS AND
ECONOMIC CONTEXTS

3. A diversified picture
SEMED COUNTRIES IN
2019:
Level of
Economic
development
Economic
Structure
Integration in
Global economy
Income
Distribution
and poverty
3

4. DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
GDP/capita (2017 or LAD)
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Data source: ETF KIESE
4
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2015 2016 2017
GDP growth rate (%)
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN

5. SPREAD POVERTY AND GROWING INEQUALITIES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day
(% of population), 2016
Data source: World Bank
At least 1/4
of the population under the poverty
line in Egypt, Lebanon, Palestine
Polarisation of societies
happens both between countries
and within countries, with high
picks in Israel, Morocco, Palestine
0
10
20
30
40
50
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Gini Coefficient
5

6. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF SERVICES AND DECLINING
AGRICULTURE (BUT STILL PROMINENT IN SOME COUNTRIES)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN UE
Employment share of services and agriculture (%)
SERV 2017 or LAD SERV 2011 AGR 2017 or LAD AGR 2011
Data source: ETF KIESE
6

7. VERY HIGH INFORMALITY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Share of informal employment, 2014 or
LAD
4 out of 5 workers
are informal in Morocco, and
3 out of 5 in Egypt,
Palestine and Tunisia
Data source: ILO
7

8. CONSIDERABLE INTEGRATION IN GLOBAL ECONOMY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Exports (% of GDP) FDI flows(% of GDP) Remittances (% of GDP)
Data source: World Bank, UNDP,
2017 or LAD
8

9. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VS. INNOVATION CAPACITY AND
DIGITAL READINESS
DZ - [Y
VALUE]
EG - [Y
VALUE]
IL - 11
JO - [Y
VALUE]
LB - [Y
VALUE]
MA - [Y
VALUE]
TN - [Y
VALUE]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GlobalInnvoationIndexrank(2018)
GDP per capita PPP crt. $ (2017)
Global innovation index
(2018)
Data source: ETF KIESE, INSEAD,
WIPO
9
DZ - [Y VALUE]EG - [Y VALUE]
IL - [Y VALUE]
JO - [Y VALUE]
MA - [Y VALUE]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
DigitalReadinessIndexrank(2018)
GDP per capita PPP crt. $ (2017)
Digital readiness index
(2018)

10. DEMOGRAPHYAND
SKILLS

11. DECREASING BUT VERY YOUNG POPULATION
Share of youths (0-24) in the population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN
2020 2005 2010 2015
Data source: ETF KIESE
11

12. LESS LOW EDUCATED, MORE TERTIARY EDUCATED
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN
PRIMARY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
OF ADULT POPULATION (% AGED)
2012 2017 OR LAD
Data source: ETF KIESE
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
IL DZ EG JO LB MA PS TN EU
TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF
ADULT POPULATION (%AGED 25+)
2012 2017 OR LAD
12

13. RAISING YEARS OF SCHOOLING BUT HIGH DROP OUTS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN UE
Average Adjusted Expected
Data source: ETF KIESEACCESS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU
Early leavers from education (%aged
18-24)
2012 2017 OR LAD
2017 or LAD 13

14. AND HIGH NUMBER OF LOW ACHIEVERS
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU
Underachievement in key competences (2015) (% of 15 years olds)
Reading Mathematics Science
QUALITY
Data source: ETF KIESE
14DIGITAL SKILLS AND
ENTREPRENEURSHIP?

15. AND SKILLS POLARISATION
9,1
68,2
42
49,8
66,5
81,7
59,3 56,4
33,0
34,4
19,3
38,1 18,7
15,3
10,5
16,3 20,8
48,0
56,5
12,5
19,8
31,5
17,9
7,9
24,4 22,8 19,0
I L DZ E G J O LB MA P S T N E U
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ACTIVE POPULATION (% AGED 15+),
2017 OR LAD
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Data source: ETF KIESE
15

16. LOW ENROLMENT IN VET
Students in vocational programmes as % of
total upper secondary students
0 10 20 30 40 50
DZ
EG
IL
JO
LB
MA
PS
TN
UE
24.2 Lebanon
11.6 Morocco
2.2 Palestine
9.6 Tunisia
9.7 Algeria
46 Egypt
40.3 Israel
13.1 Jordan
Data source: ETF KIESE, 2017 or
LAD
16

17. LOW PARTICIPATION IN LIFELONG LEARNING
Adult participation in lifelong learning (2016/2017)
(% of 25-64-year-olds)
10.2 Israel
1 Morocco
1.3 Tunisia
10.9 EU
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
IL
MA
TN
EU
Data source: ETF KIESE
17
HOW TO RUN BUSINESS IN
CHANGING CONTEXTS?

18. SKILLS UTLISATION

19. HIGHER INCIDENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG
GRADUATES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN EU
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (% AGED 15+)
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VET
Data source: ETF KIESE, 2017 or
LAD
19

20. HIGH SKILLS MISMATCH: EXAMPLE FROM EGYPT
0
5
10
15
20
25
OCCUPATIONAL MISMATCH HIGH
LEVEL (2016) (TERTIARY
GRADUATES WORKING IN SEMI-
SKILLED JOBS) (ISCO 4-9)
TOTAL MALE FEMALE
0
5
10
15
20
OCCUPATIONAL MISMATCH:
MEDIUM LEVEL (2017) HIGH-
SCHOOL GRADUATES WORKING IN
LOW-SKILLED JOBS (ISCO 9)
TOTAL MALE FEMALE
Data source: ETF
20ROLE OF HIGH QUALITY JOB
CREATION?

21. HIGH NUMBER OF NEETS, VERY HETEROGENEOUS
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
DZ EG IL JO LB MA PS TN
Persons not in employment, education
or training-NEETs (% aged 15-24)
2017 OR LAD 2012
Data source: ETF KIESE
Share of NEETS (15-29 years
old) by sub-category (2013)
Unemployed Inactive Family carers Discouraged
Palestine
Egypt
21

22. WOMEN ARE AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE
FACTORS OF EXCLUSION…
… with young women’s
opportunity to enter in the
labour market being
almost non existent in
some countries
Data source: ETF calculations,
2017 or LAD
22

23. PARADOXES AND
OPPORTUNITIES

24. PARADOXES
 Higher education vs. not higher labour
market outcomes
 More women educated vs women
substantially out of the market
 Less jobs in PA vs. youth expectations
 Right skills missing vs missing
information on which «right» skills?
 Higher integration in global economy
vs. low regional integration/dialogue
 Job creation mostly in informal
economy vs decent jobs agenda
24

25. OPPORTUNITIES
 New jobs and skills set:
• Further integration in GVC
• Automation and digitalisation
• Upgrading traditional sectors
• Platform economy
• Greening of economies
• Support to entrepreneurship and start
up /SMEs growth
• Holistic approach to informality (incl.
Skills programmes for informal
workers)
25

26. (SOME)
SUCCESS FACTORS
26

27. METHODS OF WORK
 Holistic approaches to skills and
employability
 Long term systemic actions+ quick
wins
 Co- work the future through
partnership (enterprises but not only)
 Action at local level
27

28. THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON
Starting point Choices Institutions
BA C
28