This document provides valuation details for five companies - Container Corporation of India Limited, ICICI Bank Limited, LIC Housing Finance Limited, Balmer Lawrie and Company Limited, and Suzlon Energy Limited. Valuation methodologies used include free cash flow to equity discounted at cost of equity, relative valuation using enterprise value to sales ratio, and equity as an option. The document compares the valuation results to the market prices of the stocks as of 21-10-2016 and finds most to be overvalued except Balmer Lawrie which is undervalued. Key assumptions and considerations for each valuation are outlined.
1. Name of the company Type of company Valuation Methodology
Price as per
Valuation
Methodology
used
Market Price as
on 21-10-2016
NSE Comparison result Remarks
Container Corporation of India
Limited
Profit making Logistics
service provider
Free Cash Flow to Equity
discounted at the cost of
equity Rs.320.93 Rs.1347.00 Overvalued
1.Year 2022 calculation represents the
Terminal Value calculation.
2. The cost of equity has been calculated
by arriving at the USD cost of equity and
the infation differential between USD
and India.
ICICI Bank Limited
Financial services
conglomerate
Free Cash Flow to Equity
discounted at the cost of
equity Rs. 124.77 Rs.277.95 Overvalued
1. The FCFE for the group calculation is
based on the average profit after tax
calculated for each company in the
group.
2. The cost of equity has been calculated
by arriving at the USD cost of equity and
the infation differential between USD
and India.
LIC Housing Finance Limited Housing Finance company
Free Cash Flow to Equity
discounted at the cost of
equity Rs.409.86 Rs.599.50 Overvalued
1.The FCFE has been calculated based on
the forecasted growth in its assets and
the equity capital required to generate
that growth.
2.The cost of equity has been calculated
by arriving at the USD cost of equity and
the infation differential between USD
and India.
Balmer Lawrie and Company Limited
Diversified company with
interests in Industrial
Packaging, Travel and
Vacation, Greases and
Lubricants, and Logistics.
Relative Valuation using the
Enterprise Value to Sales
Ratio Rs.2985.33 Rs.697.00 Undervalued.
1. For each of the 4 businesses, a list of
comparable firms was taken and
relationship between EV/ Sales on one
hand and the Operating Profit Margin
(proxy for return)and Debt- Equity Ratio
(proxy for risk) was obtained using
multiple regression analysis.
2. The debt equity ratio for each business
is obtained using the median debt equity
ratio for the sector and the segmental
information provided in the Annual
Report of the company.
3. The reasons for the low valuation of
the stock can be seen from a comparison
between the business-wise OPMfor
Balmer Lawrie and the average OPMfor
the companies in each of the business
that it is operating in
Free Cash Flow to the Firm
discounted at the cost of
capital. Negative N A
1. Calculation of FCFF is based on the
Asset Turnover Ratio and growth
forecasts for its domestic sales and
foreign sales .
2. The cost of debt used for the cost of
capital calculation is based by applying a
spread based on its credit rating.
2. The analysis is based on the optimistic
assumption that the company will grow
out of its debt overhang , maintaining a
heathy market share in the domestic
market and regaining its overseas market
share.
3. Calculation of FCFF also considers the
option overhang in the capital structure
and uses the Black Scholes option
valuation model to value the sam.
Equity as an Option Rs.5.49 Overvalued
1. The Firm Value needed to calculate
the value of equity as an option is based
on Relative Valation using the EV/ Sales
multiple.Suzlon Energy Limited
Loss making company in the
renewable energy sector Rs 14.85
2. CONTAINER CORPORATION OF
INDIA/ FORECASTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores
Growth in net income after tax 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09
Net Income after tax 1031.38 1144.83 1270.77 1410.55 1565.71 1698.80
ROE (in decimals) 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.16
Equity reinvestment rate 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.65 0.52
Equity reinvestment in amount 567.26 645.80 735.71 838.70 1013.11 882.63
FCFE 464.12 499.03 535.06 571.84 552.60 816.17
Beta Unlevered 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81
Debt Equity Ratio 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Levered Beta 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.90 1.00
risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
equity risk premium 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78
cost of equity in US dollars 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.74 11.28 12.36
cost of equity in INR (in %) 14.44 14.44 14.44 14.69 15.25 16.36
Inflation rate in US 1.58%
Inflation rate in INR 5.20%
Year 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
PV of FCFE 405.56 381.03 356.99 332.67 278.94 10378.33
4502.02
Sum of PV of FCFE 6257.21
No of shares 194974191.00
Intrinsic Value per share 320.93
CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED
3. CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA/
ACTUALS in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores
Month and year for financial statement March 31 2016 March 31 2015 Mar 31, 2014 Mar 31, 2013 Mar 31, 2012
Profit before exceptional item &
extraordinary items and tax as per P and
L 1072.70 1319.93 1253.60 1202.69
Net Income before tax as per P and L 1072.21 1319.81 1253.60 1202.69
Current Tax as per Pand L 299.84 319.01 268.02 241.60
Deferred tax as per P and L -10.08 -55.05 29.04 31.47
Total tax 289.76 263.96 297.06 273.07
Net Income,i.e after tax; as per
calculations 782.94 1055.97 956.54 929.62
Net income after tax as per P & L 781.78 1054.44 949.86 930.61
Interest and Dividend Income as per
Cash Flow statement 290.23 323.45 311.09 300.77
After tax interest and dividend income 211.80 258.76 237.37 232.48
Non Cash Net Income 571.14 797.21 719.17 697.14
MINUS
Capex as per Cash Flow stataemnt 761.07 998.65 534.35 585.80
Less: Depriciation as per cash flow
stataement 402.73 410.89 193.38 176.32
Net Capex 358.34 587.76 340.97 409.48
MINUS
Change in non cash WC as per Cash Flow
statement 159.39 -105.91 232.42 -42.45
ADD
New Debt raised as per Cash Flow
stataement 47.58 17.18 0.00 10.01
Less: debt Repayment(INCL INTEREST
PAID)as per cash flow stataement 35.31 52.82 39.74 32.96
Net Debt raised 12.27 -35.64 -39.74 -22.95
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY 65.68 279.72 106.04 307.16
D/E ratio
tax rate 0.27 0.20 0.24 0.23
Equity reinvested 505.46 517.49 613.13 389.98
Equity Reinvestment Rate 0.65 0.49 0.64 0.42
Return on Equity= Net Income as per P
and L / Book Value of equity as per
balance sheet 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.17
Return on Equity excl Cash= Non cash
Net Income/ Non Cash Book Value of
Equity 0.13 0.19 0.22 0.25
BookValue of equity as per Balance
Sheet 7975.20 7516.79 6889.75 6220.47 5,555.19
Less: Cash and Marketable securities
(Current Investments) as per Balance
Sheet 1112.55 2950.99 2698.41 2945.95 2,761.63
Non cash book value of equity 6862.65 4565.80 4191.34 3274.52 2793.56
4. ICICI Bank Group Forecasts
Year Year PAT (in crores)
Reinvestment
Rate ROE Growth
Reinvestment
(in Rs crores)
FCFE
(in Rs
crores)
Cost of equity
(in %)
PV of FCFE
(in crores)
cost of equity
in decimals
2017 1 12391.98 0.39 31.00 12.00 4796.89 7595.08 23.39 6155.36 0.2339
2018 2 13817.05 0.40 29.00 11.50 5479.18 8337.88 21.93 5541.96 0.2193
2019 3 15371.47 0.43 26.00 11.25 6651.12 8720.35 20.82 4797.55 0.2082
2020 4 17062.33 0.43 25.50 11.00 7360.22 9702.11 19.70 4459.21 0.1970
2021 5 18853.88 0.48 22.00 10.50 8998.44 9855.44 18.58 3819.79 0.1858
2022 6 20739.27 0.50 20.00 10.00 10369.63 10369.63 18.58 3389.21 0.1858
2023 7 22502.11 0.44 19.50 8.50 9808.61 12693.50 18.03 3515.08 0.1803
2024 8 24358.53 0.44 18.75 8.25 10717.75 13640.78 17.47 3215.66 0.1747
2025 9 26246.32 0.46 17.00 7.75 11965.23 14281.08 16.91 2879.61 0.1691
2026 10 28214.79 0.46 16.35 7.50 12942.56 15272.23 16.35 2646.64 0.1635
TERMINAL
VALUE 30330.90 0.46 16.35 7.50 13913.26 16417.64 16.35
32134.62
PV of FCFE (in
Rs crores) 72554.69
No of shares in
crores 581.5034519
Intrinsic Value
(in Rs/ )share 124.77
Cost of equity calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
beta 1.63 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1
equity risk premium 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77
inflation rate -US (in %) 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
inflation rate- India (in %) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
cost of equity-in USD (in %) 19.14 17.74 16.66 15.58 14.50 14.50 13.97 13.43 12.89 12.35
cost of equity- in INR (in %) 23.39 21.93 20.82 19.70 18.58 18.58 18.03 17.47 16.91 16.35
ICICI BANK LIMITED
5. ACTUALS
The details of the individual companies are as below:
ICICI Bank Group- Actuals
Name Average PAT Average FCFE
% shareholding of
ICICI Group
Average PAT share
belonging to ICICI
Group
in Rs. crores
Average of 5 years from 2012
to 2016
in Rs crores
Average of 5 years from
2012 to 2016 in Rs crores
ICICI Bank standalone 9,100.57 2,172.92 100 9,100.57
Pru ICICI Life Insurance 1,546.30 1,489.37 54.89 848.77
ICICI Securities Primary
Dealer 150.41 93.99 100 150.41
ICICI Securities Ltd 140.00 119.41 100 140.00
ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC
LTD 190.69 88.13 51 97.25
ICICI Lombard General
Insurance 288.77 -40.19 63.82 184.29
ICICI Home Finance 216.02 178.26 100 216.02
ICICI Venture Funds
Management Company
Limited. 20.15 4.09 100 20.15
ICICI International
Limited -0.36 -0.77 100 -0.36
ICICI Prudential Pension
Funds Management
Company Limited -0.29 -3.20 100 -0.29
ICICI Investment
Management Company
Limited -0.22 - 100 -0.22
ICICI Trusteeship
Services Limited 0.04 - 100 0.04
ICICI Bank UK PLC 98.35 70.79 100 98.35
ICICI Bank Canada 209.17 445.44 100 209.17
ICICI Prudential Trust
Limited 0.20 0.15 50.8 0.10
TOTAL 11,959.82 4,618.41 11,064.26
6. ICICI BANK STANDALONE/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s
Profit before tax 1219,57,196.00 1581,99,234.00 1396,81,708.00 1139,66,897.00 880,34,223.00
Profit before tax and AFTER
adjustments for non cash and provisions
and non operating income 1953,13,721.00 1856,08,386.00 1568,61,048.00 1313,39,572.00 1091,68,978.00
Profit after tax 972,62,873.00 1117,53,549.00 981,04,770.00 832,54,727.00 646,52,572.00
Profit after tax as a % of Profit before
tax and AFTER adj 49.80 60.21 62.54 63.39 59.22
Capital 116,31,656.00 115,96,608.00 115,50,446.00 115,36,362.00 115,27,683.00
Reserves and and Surplus 8856,57,157.00 7926,22,557.00 7205,17,086.00 6554,78,392.00 5925,00,885.00
TOTAL Share Capital (CLOSING) 8972,88,813.00 8042,19,165.00 7320,67,532.00 6670,14,754.00 6040,28,568.00
ASSETS 59567,57,385.00 54565,12,924.00 51572,44,656.00 46164,30,344.00 41328,77,009.00
Investments 16041,17,966.00 15812,92,196.00 17702,18,164.00 17139,35,993.00 15956,00,430.00
Advances 43526,39,419.00 38752,20,728.00 33870,26,492.00 29024,94,351.00 25372,76,579.00
Advances as a % of Investments 271.34 245.07 191.33 169.35 159.02
Contingent liabilities 90079,87,789.00 85197,76,091.00 78143,04,451.00 78998,93,146.00 91546,51,059.00
Interest earned 5273,94,348.00 4909,11,399.00 4417,81,528.00 4007,55,969.00 3354,26,522.00
Interest expended 3151,53,949.00 3005,15,294.00 2770,25,886.00 2620,91,848.00 2280,84,964.00
Average Rate of interest earned in % 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08
Average rate of interest paid in % 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Net Interest Margin 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
Ratios
Equity Capital/ (Investments + Advances
) Ratio 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.15
Growth in Share Capital in % 11.57 9.86 9.75 10.43 9.64
Growth in Assets in % 9.17 5.80 11.71 11.70 17.73
Return on Equity in % 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.12
Reinvestment in Amounts 930,69,648.00 721,51,633.00 650,52,778.00 629,86,186.00 531,22,124.00
Reinvestment Rate in % 0.96 0.65 0.66 0.76 0.82
Fundamental Growth rate in % 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Interest cost to interest income ratio 59.76 61.22 62.71 65.40 68.00
Total Borrowings 59623,30,865.00 53398,00,799.00 48667,27,109.00 43795,51,201.00 39566,48,634.00
Deposits 42142,57,086.00 36156,27,301.00 33191,36,570.00 29261,36,257.00 25549,99,561.00
Borrowings 17480,73,779.00 17241,73,498.00 15475,90,539.00 14534,14,944.00 14016,49,073.00
Deposits as a % of Borrowings 241.08 209.70 214.47 201.33 182.29
FCFE 41,93,225.00 396,01,916.00 330,51,992.00 202,68,541.00 115,30,448.00
7. PRU ICICI LIFE INSURANCE / ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
(in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s)
Premiums earned 1899,86,971.00 1516,04,465.00 1228,26,527.00 1341,72,372.00 1392,78,800.00
Cash Receipts from customers- Premiums
and Other Receipts 2151,47,600.00 1783,69,212.00 1465,36,074.00 1600,89,949.00 1651,02,805.00
Benefits paid 1240,86,821.00 1224,57,230.00 1207,39,625.00 1328,78,583.00 845,43,802.00
Change in the valuation of policy liabilities 351,54,814.00 1795,61,032.00 566,17,344.00 259,30,741.00 170,25,834.00
Surplus in the Revenue Account after tax 134,20,678.00 116,20,461.00 125,99,650.00 144,96,763.00 133,19,646.00
Transer from Revenue Account to
Shareholders Account 120,76,435.00 113,85,962.00 126,41,803.00 170,06,388.00 154,49,503.00
Contribution from Shareholders Account to
Revenue Account - 4,14,567.00 9,46,523.00 54,12,458.00 34,98,006.00
Net Cash from Operating Activities 363,70,897.00 52,82,743.00 -236,82,181.00 -265,20,476.00 281,51,092.00
Profit After Tax 165,04,607.00 163,42,915.00 156,66,555.00 149,59,392.00 138,41,737.00
Transfer from Revenue account (Net=
Transfer to MINUS Transfer from) as a % of
the PAT 73.17 67.13 74.65 77.50 86.34
Shareholders Funds- CLOSING 507,38,205.00 486,37,623.00 479,56,404.00 479,34,495.00 493,12,180.00
Share Capital 143,23,193.00 143,17,170.00 142,92,557.00 142,89,392.00 142,88,491.00
Reserves and Surplus 364,15,012.00 343,20,453.00 336,63,847.00 336,45,103.00 350,23,689.00
Policy Liability= Non Unit Liabilities+ Total
inked liabilities (Total linked liabilities=
provision for linked liabilities + funds for
discontinued policies) 9554,95,047.00 9203,40,233.00 7407,79,201.00 6841,61,856.00 6582,31,115.00
Borrowings - - - - -
Investments:-
Policy Holders Investments 2151,56,198.00 1885,79,514.00 1445,67,076.00 1128,69,878.00 911,07,635.00
Policy Holders Assets to cover Linked
Liabilities 7529,57,948.00 7477,75,359.00 6031,04,321.00 5752,08,274.00 5781,73,746.00
Income from investments- Net 120,83,680.00 1872,44,458.00 921,67,437.00 619,03,123.00 -14,18,084.00
Income from investments - Gross 381,69,027.00 354,02,718.00 316,93,174.00 279,92,314.00 262,62,326.00
Return earned for policy holders % 3.94 3.78 4.24 4.07 3.92
Shareholders Investments 621,56,674.00 585,67,710.00 535,27,703.00 491,99,607.00 347,70,112.00
Income from investments 59,95,701.00 53,35,126.00 39,73,950.00 41,60,630.00 22,02,900.00
Income from Investments- Gross 38,77,663.00 37,69,054.00 35,92,152.00 30,03,955.00 20,65,785.00
Return earned for shareholders % 6.24 6.44 6.71 6.11 5.94
Growth in Share Capital in % 4.32 1.42 0.05 -2.79 2.97
Return on Equity in % 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.29
Reinvestment in Amounts 21,00,582.00 6,81,219.00 21,909.00 -13,77,685.00 14,20,644.00
Reinvestment Rate in % 0.13 0.04 0.00 -0.09 0.10
Fundamental Growth rate in % 0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.03
Policy Assets / Policy Liabilities 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02
Change in the valuation of policy liabilities/
Policy liabilities 3.68 19.51 7.64 3.79 2.59
FCFE 144,04,025.00 156,61,696.00 156,44,646.00 163,37,077.00 124,21,093.00
8. ICICI Prudential Pension
Funds Management
Company Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share
Capital FCFE
in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs
2012 -445000 1098,60,000 1094,15,000.00 -4,45,000 0
2013 -10,41,073 1094,15,000 2683,74,175.00 1589,59,175
-
1600,00,248
2014 -106,57,593 2683,74,175 2577,16,582.00 -106,57,593 0
2015 10,01,311 2577,16,582 2587,17,893.00 10,01,311 0
2016 -31,51,629 2587,17,893 2555,66,264.00 -31,51,629 0
ICICI Venture Funds
Management Company Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs
2012 683.6 1,172.50 1,681.80 509.30 174.30
2013 197.9 1,681.80 1,862.30 180.50 17.40
2014 329.8 1,862.30 2,180.40 318.10 11.70
2015 8.7 2,180.40 2,187.90 7.50 1.20
2016 -212.3 2,187.90 1,975.60 -212.30 0.00
ICICI International Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs
2012(in '000 for Net profit, op
and closing balance AND in Rs
for Increase/ Decrease and
FCFE ) -4,411 73,356 82,692 9336000 -137,47,000
2013 20,59,957 82,692 902,90,557 7598557 -55,38,600
2014 -27,29,426 902,90,557 969,48,042 66,57,485 -93,86,911
2015 -79,37,208 969,48,042 930,20,312 -39,27,730 -40,09,478
2016 -48,88,424 930,20,312 937,20,546 7,00,234 -55,88,658
9. ICICI Investment Management
Company Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000
2012 17,156 1,26,310 1,43,466 17,156 0
2013 8,976 1,43,466 1,52,442 8,976 0
2014 1,899 1,52,442 1,54,341 1,899 0
2015 -20,253 1,54,341 1,34,088 -20,253 0
2016 -18,544 1,34,088 1,15,544 -18,544 0
ICICI Trusteeship Services
Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000
2012 338 3,271 3,609 338 0
2013 470 3,609 4,079 470 0
2014 388 4,079 4,467 388 0
2015 321 4,467 4,788 321 0
2016 531 4,788 5,319 531 0
ICICI Bank UK PLC
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs
2012 1,291.70 34,766.00 36,102.90 1,337 -45
2013 864 36,102.90 37,279 1,176 -312
2014 1,512 37,279 37,690 411 1,101
2015 1,214 37,690 36,137 -1,553 2,767
2016 36 36,137 36,144 7 29
ICICI Bank Canada
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
as of 31st Dec and NOT 31st
March in millions Rs. in millions Rs. in millions Rs.
in millions
Rs.
in millions
Rs.
2011 1,858.00 51,494.60
2012 2,473.30 51,494.60 58,822.20 7,327.60 -4,854.30
2013 2,816.30 58,822.20 55,530.60 -3,291.60 6,107.90
2014 1,776.10 55,530.60 45,797.60 -9,733.00 11,509.10
2015 1,301.00 45,797.60 42,043.70 -3,753.90 5,054.90
10. ICICI Prudential Trust Limited
Year Net Profit
Op balance of
Share Capital
Closing Balance
of Share Capital
Increase/
Decrease in
Share Capital FCFE
in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000
2012 1,705 10653 10895 242 1,463
2013 2,820 10895 11654 759 2,061
2014 2,730 11654 12323 669 2,061
2015 2,236 12323 12,436 113 2,123
2016 349 12,436 12,787 351 -2
11. ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP
LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions
Share Capital 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40
Reserves and Surplus 7105.20 6543.00 5859.50 5227.10 4646.30
Shareholders funds 8668.60 8106.40 7422.90 6790.50 6209.70
Growth in Share Capital OR Reinvestment
amount 562.20 683.50 632.40 580.80 361.70
Growth in share capital % 6.94 9.21 9.31 9.35 6.19
Reinvestment Rate 28.76 31.44 47.97 47.73 42.22
Profit after tax 1954.70 2173.70 1318.30 1216.80 856.80
ROE 24.11 29.28 19.41 19.60 14.65
Fundamental Growth rate 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.06
Long Term Borrowings 3800.00 2850.00 3650.00 3100.00 3400.00
Short Term Borrowings 132143.50 127642.80 82213.30 78628.10 68171.00
Current maturities of Long term Borrowings 0.00 800.00 800.00 2000.00 1100.00
Total Borrowings 135943.50 131292.80 86663.30 83728.10 72671.00
Interest and Dividend Income 10315.30 9111.10 6764.10 6147.40 4460.20
Profit and Loss on securities 2889.50 3528.00 1499.70 1898.60 1349.20
Total 13204.80 12639.10 8263.80 8046.00 5809.40
Total of "Revenue from Operations" 13602.30 13047.80 9016.40 8256.90 5972.30
Interest earned 7.42 7.05 7.47 6.34 5.82
Interest Expenses 9450.40 8642.40 6106.60 5636.60 4034.10
Rate of interest paid 6.95 6.58 7.05 6.73 5.55
Interest spread 0.47 0.47 0.42 -0.40 0.26
Non Current Investments:
Govt Securities- market value and NOT the
FV. The Schedule will have the market value 1808.80 7539.00 9379.90 3155.20 0.00
Current Investments:
Inventories - Securities held as stock in
Trade- market value 137141.00 121715.60 81224.20 93864.90 76698.40
Total Investments 138949.80 129254.60 90604.10 97020.10 76698.40
Purchases of Securities- market value 6863703.70 7438516.60 6384677.10 4132028.60 3138574.40
Sales of securities- market value 6849067.00 7400878.10 6397837.30 4116853.30 3117656.10
Borrowings as a multiple of share capital 15.68 16.20 11.68 12.33 11.70
Investments as a multiple of share capital 16.03 15.94 12.21 14.29 12.35
Short term borrowings as a % of stock in
trade (current investments) 96.36 104.87 101.22 83.77 88.88
FCFE 1392.50 1490.20 685.90 636.00 495.10
12. ICICI SECURITIES LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million
Share Capital 1,610.70 1,610.70 1,610.70 2,110.70 2,110.70
Reserves and Surplus 2,331.60 1,910.60 1,385.00 1,157.60 897.5
Total 3942.3 3521.3 2995.7 3,268.30 3008.2
Change in Share Capital/ Reinvestment 421 525.6 -272.6 260.1 95.4
Net Profit 2,357.40 2,439.60 749.4 682.1 771.3
Return on Equity 0.67 0.81 0.23 0.23 0.26
Reinvestment Rate 0.18 0.22 -0.36 0.38 0.12
Fundamental Growth rate 0.12 0.18 -0.08 0.09 0.03
FCFE 1936.4 1914 1022 422 675.9
ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC
LTD/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
(in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs)
Share Capital 176.5 176.5 176.5 176.5 176.5
Reserves and Surplus 6,196.00 4,213.80 2,687.10 1,686.30 1,281.80
Total 6372.5 4390.3 2863.6 1862.8 1458.3
Change in Share Capital/
Reinvestment 1982.2 1526.7 1000.8 404.5 213.9
Net Profit 3,256.90 2,468.20 1,826.90 1,102.00 880.6
Net Profit growth 0.319544607 0.351031803 0.657803993 0.251419487 0.22595016
Return on Equity 0.741839965 0.861922056 0.980727936 0.755674415 0.707650273
Reinvestment Rate 0.608615555 0.61854793 0.547813236 0.367059891 0.242902566
Fundamental Growth Rate 0.451495342 0.533140103 0.537255744 0.277377769 0.171890068
FCFE 1,274.70 941.50 826.10 697.50 666.70
13. ICICI LOMBARD GENERAL INSURANCE/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
(in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s)
Premium from direct business
written-net of service tax 809,07,071 667,77,956 685,61,645 613,39,850 515,01,386
Net Premium (i.e after adjusting for premium on
reinsurenace accepted and reinsurance ceded) 543,48,919 442,76,854 449,79,957 414,54,927 410,87,394
change in reserve for unexpired risks 61,32,746 19,23,506 14,50,824 13,62,412 55,97,396
Total premium earned (net) 482,16,173 423,53,348 435,29,133 400,92,515 354,89,998
Premium received from policyholders, including advance
receipt 880,77,170 735,25,871 716,75,899 635,84,389 569,51,264
Claims paid- Direct 487,13,929 403,85,749 372,48,084 315,62,427 297,57,757
Net Claims paid(i.e adj for claims on reinsurance accepted
or reins ceded) 275,31,698 405,89,331 310,15,669 286,00,091 223,35,884
Total Claims incurred (i.e adj for opening and closing
balance of claims outstanding) 392,82,142 344,34,368 361,89,051 338,06,189 360,09,054
Payments of claims (net of salvage) 494,12,253 561,71,861 442,08,778 405,73,786 344,64,546
Operating Profit 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877
Transfer to Shareholders' Account 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877
Reserve for unexpired risks 307,35,580 246,02,834 226,79,328 212,28,505 198,66,094
Claims Outstanding (gross) 754,07,234 656,23,094 707,70,449 652,32,383 615,48,048
Reserve for premium deficiency 0 0 0 0 17,300
Fair value change account 30,90,130 35,59,494 11,34,613 6,90,462 4,95,909
Investments 1156,25,186 1019,97,176 930,89,768 781,25,187 603,36,193
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 16,02,584 14,31,530 11,29,758 10,04,751 8,72,639
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 65,94,781 58,86,745 53,76,232 40,59,412 26,38,263
Total 8197365 7318275 6505990 5064163 3510902
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross; as a % of investments 7.089601568 7.17497806 6.988942114 6.482113124 5.818898783
Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
Premium Deficiency 0 0 0 -17,300 -1,200
Net Profit 50,74,467 53,56,145 51,13,559 30,57,753 -41,63,292
Share Capital: 317,56,464 282,33,291 238,10,921 176,57,566 145,80,600
Share capital 44,75,384 44,65,940 44,50,555 43,70,152 43,65,839
Reserves and Surplus 272,81,080 237,67,351 193,60,366 142,16,414 142,01,514
Misc expenditure to the extent not written off 0 0 0 0 0
Debit balance in the P and L account 0 0 0 9,29,000 39,86,753
Growth in Share Capital Reinvestment 3523173 4422370 6153355 3076966 -727665
FCFE 15,51,294 9,33,775 -10,39,796 -19,213 -34,35,627
Return on Equity 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.21 -0.27
Equity Reinvestment rate 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.01 0.17
Fundamental Growth Rate 0.12 0.19 0.35 0.21 -0.05
14. ICICI HOME FINANCE/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs
Share Capital 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50
Reserves and Surplus 4,304.60 3,929.10 4,221.80 3,658.30 3,097.70
Misc expenditure not written off 0 0 0 0 0
P & L a/c debit balance 0 0 0 0 0
Share Capital 15292.1 14916.6 15209.3 14645.8 14085.2
Growth in Share Capital/
Reinvestement 375.5 -292.7 563.5 560.6 681
Borrowings 74478 64093 53329.5 53404.2 55942.8
Long term Borrowings 49,016.50 39,707.30 39,956.30 38,686.70 38,485.90
Short term Borrowings 8,272.60 7,783.20 4,645.00 1,950.90 2,032.20
Current maturities of long term
debt 17,188.90 16,602.50 8,728.20 12766.6 15424.7
Interest paid 6,547.10 5,701.10 5,245.60 5,290.10 6,101.70
Interest rate paid % 8.79% 8.90% 9.84% 9.91% 10.91%
Net profit 1,798.50 1,975.70 2,228.20 2,202.20 2,596.50
Return on Equity 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.19
FCFE 1423.00 2268.40 1664.70 1641.60 1915.50
Reinvestment Rate 0.21 -0.15 0.25 0.25 0.26
Fundamental Growth rate 0.03 -0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05
15. ICICI LOMBARD GENERAL INSURANCE/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
(in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s)
Premium from direct business
written-net of service tax 809,07,071 667,77,956 685,61,645 613,39,850 515,01,386
Net Premium (i.e after adjusting for premium on
reinsurenace accepted and reinsurance ceded) 543,48,919 442,76,854 449,79,957 414,54,927 410,87,394
change in reserve for unexpired risks 61,32,746 19,23,506 14,50,824 13,62,412 55,97,396
Total premium earned (net) 482,16,173 423,53,348 435,29,133 400,92,515 354,89,998
Premium received from policyholders, including advance
receipt 880,77,170 735,25,871 716,75,899 635,84,389 569,51,264
Claims paid- Direct 487,13,929 403,85,749 372,48,084 315,62,427 297,57,757
Net Claims paid(i.e adj for claims on reinsurance accepted
or reins ceded) 275,31,698 405,89,331 310,15,669 286,00,091 223,35,884
Total Claims incurred (i.e adj for opening and closing
balance of claims outstanding) 392,82,142 344,34,368 361,89,051 338,06,189 360,09,054
Payments of claims (net of salvage) 494,12,253 561,71,861 442,08,778 405,73,786 344,64,546
Operating Profit 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877
Transfer to Shareholders' Account 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877
Reserve for unexpired risks 307,35,580 246,02,834 226,79,328 212,28,505 198,66,094
Claims Outstanding (gross) 754,07,234 656,23,094 707,70,449 652,32,383 615,48,048
Reserve for premium deficiency 0 0 0 0 17,300
Fair value change account 30,90,130 35,59,494 11,34,613 6,90,462 4,95,909
Investments 1156,25,186 1019,97,176 930,89,768 781,25,187 603,36,193
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 16,02,584 14,31,530 11,29,758 10,04,751 8,72,639
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 65,94,781 58,86,745 53,76,232 40,59,412 26,38,263
Total 8197365 7318275 6505990 5064163 3510902
Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross; as a % of investments 7.089601568 7.17497806 6.988942114 6.482113124 5.818898783
Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
Premium Deficiency 0 0 0 -17,300 -1,200
Net Profit 50,74,467 53,56,145 51,13,559 30,57,753 -41,63,292
Share Capital: 317,56,464 282,33,291 238,10,921 176,57,566 145,80,600
Share capital 44,75,384 44,65,940 44,50,555 43,70,152 43,65,839
Reserves and Surplus 272,81,080 237,67,351 193,60,366 142,16,414 142,01,514
Misc expenditure to the extent not written off 0 0 0 0 0
Debit balance in the P and L account 0 0 0 9,29,000 39,86,753
Growth in Share Capital Reinvestment 3523173 4422370 6153355 3076966 -727665
FCFE 15,51,294 9,33,775 -10,39,796 -19,213 -34,35,627
Return on Equity 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.21 -0.27
Equity Reinvestment rate 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.01 0.17
Fundamental Growth Rate 0.12 0.19 0.35 0.21 -0.05
16. LIC HOUSING FINANCE
/ FORECASTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Terminal
Value
Growth in Assets (in %) 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 23.00 21.00 19.00 18.00 10.00 8.50
Assets (in Rs. Lakhs) 156,46,649.86 195,58,312.33 244,47,890.41 305,59,863.01 381,99,828.77 469,85,789.38 568,52,805.15 676,54,838.13 798,32,708.99 878,15,979.89 952,80,338.19
Capital (in Rs. Lakhs)
Assuming a Capital to
Asset ratio of 9%. 14,08,198.49 17,60,248.11 22,00,310.14 27,50,387.67 34,37,984.59 42,28,721.04 51,16,752.46 60,88,935.43 71,84,943.81 79,03,438.19 85,75,230.44
Existing Capital (in Rs.
Lakhs) 9,14,597.70 16,96,014.79 17,60,248.11 22,44,316.34 27,51,487.83 35,05,396.59 42,28,721.04 51,16,752.46 60,88,935.43 71,84,943.81 79,03,438.19
Reinvestment needed
(in Rs. Lakhs) 4,93,600.79 64,233.32 4,40,062.03 5,06,071.33 6,86,496.76 7,23,324.45 8,88,031.42 9,72,182.97 10,96,008.38 7,18,494.38 6,71,792.25
Return on Equity (in %) 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.00 21.50 20.00 20.00 18.00 15.00
Profit after tax (in Rs.
Lakhs) 2,05,784.48 3,81,603.33 3,96,055.82 5,04,971.18 6,19,084.76 7,71,187.25 9,09,175.02 10,23,350.49 12,17,787.09 12,93,289.89 11,85,515.73
FCFE (in Rs. Lakhs) -2,87,816.31 3,17,370.01 -44,006.20 -1,100.16 -67,412.00 47,862.80 21,143.61 51,167.52 1,21,778.71 5,74,795.50 5,13,723.48
Cost of equity
risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
beta 1.42 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00
equity risk premium 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78
inflation rate -india 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20
inflation rate- US 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
cost of equity-in USD
(in %) 16.85 16.67 16.13 15.59 15.06 14.52 13.98 13.44 12.90 12.36
cost of equity- in
INR(in %) 17.46 17.27 16.71 16.15 15.59 15.03 14.48 13.92 13.36 12.80
cost of capital in
decimals 0.1746 0.1727 0.1671 0.1615 0.1559 0.1503 0.1448 0.1392 0.1336 0.1280
1 + cost of capital in
decimals 1.1746 1.1727 1.1671 1.1615 1.1559 1.1503 1.1448 1.1392 1.1336 1.1280
PV of FCFE (in Rs.
Lakhs) -2,45,043.04 2,30,420.04 -27,375.87 -589.24 -31,235.40 19,278.99 7,439.68 15,804.53 33,182.09 1,57,394.50 79,03,438.19
19,09,138.68
Total FCFE (in Rs. 20,68,414.96
No of shares 5046,63,000.00
Intrinsic Value
(Rs./share) 409.86
LIC HOUSING FINANCE /
ACTUALS 2016 (in Rs. lakhs) 2015(in Rs.lakhs) 2014 (in Rs. lakhs) 2013 (in Rs. lakhs) 2012 (in Rs. lakhs) 2011( in Rs.) 2010(in Rs)
Share Capital 9,14,597.70 7,81,843.78 7,53,289.62 6,48,129.06 5,68,220.54 416910,41,272.00 338767,23,594.00
Profit after tax 1,66,079.05 1,38,618.87 1,31,718.63 1,02,320.66 91,419.61 97448,62,002.00 66217,60,807.00
Dividends 27,756.69 25,233.00 22,710.00 19,177.00 18,168.00 16613,00,000.00 14239,00,000.00
Dividend % 16.71 18.20 17.24 18.74 19.87 17.05 21.50
Retention % 83.29 81.80 82.76 81.26 80.13 82.95 78.50
Revenue from Operations 12,39,614.56 10,66,934.62 9,18,138.22 7,57,592.03 6,11,486.04 468008,58,227.00 345576,97,060.00
Interest Income 12,25,085.30 10,54,667.50 9,07,333.66 7,45,908.67 5,98,268.79 446965,56,020.00 328266,56,394.00
Interest cost 9,30,675.81 8,31,024.58 7,17,437.57 5,92,459.63 4,59,106.52 309771,00,788.00 239571,12,365.00
Ratios
Equity Capital/ Total Assets
Ratio (in %) 7.31 7.22 8.25 8.33 9.01 8.16 8.90
Growth in Share Capital 16.98 3.79 16.23 14.06 36.29 23.07
Growth in Assets 15.52 18.63 17.39 23.36 23.47 34.16
Return on Equity 21.24 18.40 20.32 18.01 21.93 28.77
Reinvestment 1,32,753.92 28,554.16 1,05,160.56 79,908.52 1,51,310.13 78,143.18
Reinvestment Rate 79.93 20.60 79.84 78.10 165.51 80.19
Fundamental Growth rate 16.98 3.79 16.23 14.06 36.29 23.07
Interest cost to interest
income ratio 75.08 77.89 78.14 78.20 75.08 66.19 69.32
Total Borrowings 114,78,422.55 99,40,346.71 84,10,662.28 70,65,090.23 57,40,718.45 4625542,20,711.00 3562421,20,216.00
Long Term 90,65,813.59 80,51,855.04 67,71,232.88 56,26,793.67 46,11,129.74 4070060,87,696.00 3101498,22,039.00
Short Term 5,44,044.21 2,69,800.96 3,73,811.08 2,43,724.47 1,75,862.14 446222,40,744.00 374317,45,717.00
Current Maturities of Long
term Debt 14,83,259.17 13,31,530.99 10,58,514.24 10,05,890.74 8,21,735.01 - -
Temporary Book OverDraft 3,85,305.58 2,87,159.72 2,07,104.08 1,88,681.35 1,31,991.56 109258,92,271.00 86605,52,460.00
Interest rate paid 8.11 8.36 8.53 8.39 8.00 6.70 6.72
Interest rate received 9.79 9.73 9.93 9.59 9.48 8.75 8.62
Net Interest Margin 1.68 1.37 1.40 1.20 1.49 2.05 1.90
LIC HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED
17. Calculation of value per share based on relative valuation using the EV/ Sales approach:
Calculations for business-wise Debt Equity Ratio:
As per Balance Sheet:
Borrowings as on 31Mar
2016
in lakhs (figures as per
"Consolidated Subsidiary &
Joint Venture Companies"
in Consolidated Balance
Sheet as at 2016.
Long term borrowings 6438.4
Short Term Borrowings 6686.02
Current Maturities of Long
Term Debt 2923.36
Total Debt 16047.78
Equity 116767.92
Debt- Equity Ratio 0.137
Cash and Cash Equivalents 45751.45
Business wise split:
Total Industrial Packaging Travel and Vacation Greases and Lubricants Logistics
EV/ Sales arrived at based on
regression equation 1.69488176 2.138324809 1.732092359 5.710877
Sales (in Rs. Lakhs) 94823.07 124496.93 38403.39 57379.49
EV (in Rs. Lakhs) 160713.89 266214.87 66518.22 327687.21
Debt.(in Rs. Lakhs) 9957.94 44.58 3552.73 2492.53
Equity MINUS Cash (in Rs. Lakhs) 805086.42 150755.95 266170.29 62965.49 325194.68
Cash (Rs lakhs) 45751.45
Equity (Rs lakhs) 850837.87
No of shares 28500641
Value (in Rs per share) based on
Relative Valuation 2985.33
Business
Median
debt-equity
ratio
Segment Assets
(Source: Annual report
2015-16)
in Rs. lakhs
Total debt as per
the median debt
equity ratio
in Rs. lakhs
Debt seperated
business wise
in Rs. lakhs
Equity
(=Segment Assets
MINUS Segment
Debt)
in Rs Lakhs debt equity ratio
Industrial Packaging 0.81 64787.57 52477.93 9957.94 54829.63 0.182
Travel and Vacation 0.01 23493.56 234.94 44.58 23448.98 0.002
Lubricants and Greases 0.79 23699.66 18722.73 3552.73 20146.93 0.176
Logistics 0.47 28248.47 13135.54 2492.53 25755.94 0.097
140229.26 84571.14 16047.78
Note: 16047.78 124181.48
100% of the debt as per balance sheet spread over 70% of the assets as per segment info as the balance 30% o the assets are either "Other Assets" or "Unallocable
Assets". To that extent, the debt equity ratio is overstated.
BALMER LAWRIE AND COMPANY LIMITED
18. Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:
Comparison Table
Business
Operating Profit
Margin (%)
Debt equity
ratio
Balmer and Lawrie –Greases and
Lubricants 10.27 0.18
Median for the Lubricants and Greases
industry 7.14 0.79
Average for the Lubricants and Greases
industry 15.38 0.80
List of comparable firms for Greases
and Lubricants business:
Prices as on 06-Oct-2016
Company Price EV/ Sales
Operating
Margin (%)
Debt Equity
Ratio
Castrol India Ltd. 474 6.69 30.04 0
Goa Carbon Ltd. 135 0.65 3.88 2.82
GP Petroleums Ltd. 82.95 1.12 7.03 0.86
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. 771.05 3.55 17.51 0.79
Kavit Industries Ltd. 16.45 2.89 60.97 0.07
Panama Petrochem Ltd. 76.55 0.47 6.72 0.21
Savita Oil Technologies Ltd. 703.75 0.69 5.65 0.06
Tide Water Oil Co. (India) Ltd. 5816.75 1.81 15.07 0.01
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 670.7 0.63 8.56 1.04
Hindustan Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 451.55 0.43 6.57 2.1
Indian Oil Corpn. Ltd. 650.2 0.63 7.14 0.81
20. Comparison Table
Business
Operating Profit
Margin
(%) Debt equity ratio
Balmer Lawrie- Industrial Packaging 9.44 0.18
Median for the Industrial Packaging industry 9.22 0.81
Average for the Industrial Packaging industry 12.06 1.17
21. Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:
Comparison Table
Business
Operating
Profit
Margin (%)
Debt
equity
ratio
Balmer Lawrie- Logistics 24.54 0.10
Median in the Logistics Industry 17.29 0.47
Average in the Logistics Industry 21.13 0.61
List of comparable firms for Logistics
business:
Prices as on 06-Oct-2016
Company Price EV/ Sales Operating Margin (%) Debt Equity Ratio
Aegis Logistics Ltd. 153.25 2.37 8.76 0.37
Allcargo Logistics Ltd. 180.75 0.86 9.73 0.25
Arshiya International Ltd. 32 10.50 18.56 -2.56
Chartered Logistics Ltd. 20.3 1.65 9.8 2.7
Container Corpn. Of India Ltd. 1400.2 4.66 23.67 0.03
Dredging Corpn. Of India Ltd. 411.25 3.21 28.79 0.67
Gateway Distriparks Ltd. 259.4 10.44 25.64 0.18
Kesar Terminals & Infrastructure Ltd. 247.2 8.51 61.08 1.49
Mahasagar Travels Ltd. 8.31 0.25 7.51 1.16
Navkar Corporation Ltd. 195.75 8.65 45.13 0.42
North Eastern Carrying Corporation
Ltd. 39.55 0.49 4.09 1.07
Sical Logistics Ltd. 176.9 2.05 14.76 1.95
Snowman Logistics Ltd. 64.35 5.21 22.25 0.33
VRL Logistics Ltd. 311.65 1.78 16.02 0.51
22. Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:
Comparison Table
Business
Operating Profit
Margin (%)
Debt equity
ratio
Balmer Lawrie- Travel and Vacation 1.95 0.002
Median for the Travel and Vacations industry 13.18 0.010
Average for the Travel and Vacations industry 15.48 0.871
List of comparable firms for Travel and
Vacations business:
Prices as on 06-Oct-2016
Company Price EV/ Sales Operating Margin (%) Debt Equity Ratio
Cox & Kings Ltd. 224.5 1.65 38.14 1.72
Crown Tours Ltd. 46.3 1.99 5.05 0
India Tourism Devp. Corpn. Ltd. 207.85 3.41 9.78 0.01
International Travel House Ltd. 206.95 0.66 16.63 0
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd 457.45 6.45 18.79 3.57
South Asian Enterprises Ltd. 7.05 1.07 13.18 0.01
Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. 203.25 1.26 6.82 0.79
23. Note: The option value referred to above represents the value of the management/ employee
options issued by the company.
Equity Value of Suzlon:
in Rs. crores
FCFF 1230.76
Less: Debt 11430.76
Less: Minority Interest 3.19
Less: Option value calculated as below 0.07
Add: Investments under the heading
"CurrentAssets" 316.19
Add: Cash and Bank balance 629.29
Total -9257.78
No of equity shares in crores 502.05
Intrinsic Value per share (in Rs.) -18.44
SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED/ FORECASTS
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Terminal
Value
in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores
Segment Revenue
(India Sales + Other than India Sales) 11443.39 12381.08 14023.59 16719.89 20388.96 23513.12 29398.47 36746.21 45822.29 56486.04
India sales 8649.18 8371.67 8270.49 8464.76 8543.68 6516.32 5942.89 5081.17 4657.74 5030.36
Other than India Sales 2794.21 4009.41 5753.10 8255.13 11845.28 16996.80 23455.58 31665.04 41164.55 51455.68
Market share in the domestic market 0.26 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05
Total market in India 33266.06 38053.05 43528.88 49792.69 56957.85 65163.24 74286.10 84686.15 93154.77 100607.15
Total Assets= Fixed Assets + WorkingCapital 7581.86 8203.14 9291.39 11077.83 13508.79 15578.72 19478.08 24346.35 30359.75 37425.07
Incremental Total Assets. 3200.05 621.28 1088.25 1786.44 2430.96 2069.93 3899.36 4868.27 6013.40 7065.32
EBIT (1-t) as a % of sales 8.00 9.00 9.50 10.50 12.00 13.00 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.50
EBIT(1- T() 915.47 1114.30 1332.24 1755.59 2446.68 3056.71 4115.79 5328.20 6873.34 8755.34
FCFF -2284.58 493.02 243.99 -30.85 15.71 986.78 216.42 459.93 859.95 1690.02
Year 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
Cost of capital as per table below (in %) 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.50 23.00 22.50 20.00
PV of the FCFF -1842.85 320.80 128.06 -13.06 5.37 271.84 49.39 87.79 138.44 14083.50
2084.98
PV of the FCFF (in Rs. Crores) 1230.76
SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED
24. COST OF CAPITAL CALCULATION in %
risk free rate (10 year US govt bond rate) 1.58
levered beta (levered beta is negative
because of negative debt-equity ratio ;
which is because of the negative equity in
the company. -0.3423
equity risk premium for India 10.78
Cost of equity in USD -2.11
inflation rate in US 1.58
inflation rate in India 5.2
Cost of equity in INR 1.378505918
US risk free rate 1.58
country default spread 1.36
spread based on BBB- rating 3.25
cost of debt in USD 6.19
cost of debt in INR 9.97
Share Capital -7082.77
Debt 11430.76
Total 4347.99
Weighted Average Cost of Capital weighted
by the amount of debt and capital in the
capital structure. 23.97
Option Valuation:
Number of options outstanding 40340800
Exercise Period till 31-03-2019
Average exercise price (in rs.) 26.955
Volatility 12.48651
Average stated maturity (in days) 908
Stock price as on 04-10-2016 15.25
interest rate (in %) 5.46
Value per option (in Rs.) 0.018
Value of the options outstanding (in Rs.) 726134.4
Value of the options outstanding (in Rs. crores) 0.07
SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores
EBIT 902.61 -684.12 -303.91 -1465.98 1309.35 402.88 1290.58 2799.59
Tax rate (T) (effective tax rate) 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.34
EBIT (1-T) 312.39 -684.12 -303.91 -1465.98 884.47 272.19 851.91 1848.01
EBIT (1-T) as a % of sales 3.27 -3.43 -1.49 -7.75 4.14 1.50 4.09 6.97
Total Assets = Fixed Assets + Current
Assets 4381.81 7758.57 15383.10 16440.79 17715.53 16396.49 15800.12 21835.69
25. Valuing Equity as an option
Suzlon Energy Ltd. Source Amount (in Rrs. Crores)
Market Cap
as on 10-Oct-2016
(valueresearchonline.com) 7421
Debt Annual Report for 2015-16 11489.3
Firm Value Market Cap + Debt 18910.3
Firm Value
Calculated from EV/ Sales
approach as per below 12213.72
Life of the option
Average tenor of the debt
calculated as per below 1175
Volatility of firm value 12.48651
Riskless interest rate (in %) 5.46
Option Value of the equity
(in crores) 2756.9
Value of equity per share (in
Rs.) 5.49
26. Calculations for the life of
the option:
Source: Annual report 2015-
16
Loan Type Loan Tenor
Amount
in Rs crores
Tenor
considered
in days
Secured + unsecured upto 1
year upto 1 year 294.81 365
secured + unsecured from 2
to 5 years
average of 2 to 5 years is 3.5
years 7693.02 1277.5
secured + unsecured above 5
years
above 5 years is considered as 5
years 1533.26 1825
short term borrowings short term 1909.67 365
Leases
less than one year 8.98 365
> 1 and < 5 years, so average is 3
yrs 25.84 1095
> 5 years 23.72 1825
TOTAL 11489.3 1175.49
Weighted Average tenor
of the debt with the
amounts outstanding as
the weights
(rounded off) 1175
27. Calculations of Firm Value using EV/Sales approach:
Source: valueresearchonline.com
Prices as on 10-10-2016
Company Price Enterprise Value (Cr) Market Cap (Cr) Price / Sales Sales EV/ Sales
Advance Metering Technology Ltd. 29.2 34.92 47.29 1.8 26.27 1.33
Baroda Extrusion Ltd. 0.22 50.75 3.28 0.14 23.43 2.17
BGR Energy Systems Ltd. 116.85 2591.61 844.65 0.27 3128.33 0.83
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 134.95 25413.42 33079.31 1.23 26893.75 0.94
Crompton Greaves Ltd. 76.45 5473.15 4797.74 0.57 8417.09 0.65
Cummins India Ltd. 900.8 24489.37 24888.4 5.35 4652.04 5.26
Delta Magnets Ltd. 32 53.24 20.71 0.37 55.97 0.95
Electrotherm (India) Ltd. 181 3206.44 209.44 0.12 1745.33 1.84
Fluidomat Ltd. 183.7 82.98 90.51 3.36 26.94 3.08
GEE Ltd. 40.15 133.55 94.86 0.48 197.63 0.68
Goldstone Infratech Ltd. 22 119.69 79.38 0.87 91.24 1.31
JSL Industries Ltd. 130 15.69 14.51 0.33 43.97 0.36
Kirloskar Industries Ltd. 854 889.29 830.91 153.82 5.40 164.63
Permanent Magnets Ltd. 19.8 32.83 17.02 0.26 65.46 0.50
Ricoh India Ltd. 300.05 1824.37 1193.24 0.56 2130.79 0.86
S. E. Power Ltd. 6.5 73.94 27.98 2.62 10.68 6.92
Swaraj Engines Ltd. 1323.3 1455.43 1640.1 3.02 543.08 2.68
Windsor Machines Ltd. 34.65 251.14 225.64 0.84 268.62 0.93
WS Industries (India) Ltd. 9.95 329.49 22.68 6 3.78 87.17
Median EV/ Sales 1.31
TTMSales (Sept 2015- Jun 2016)(in Rs
crore) 8589.94
Enterprise Value (in Rs crore) 11268.24
Cash and Current Investments
Mar 2016 Consolidated
(in Rs crore) 945.48
Firm Value (in Rs. Crores) 12213.72