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Thinking about Global Infrastructure
        The Next Few Years
           Global Infrastructure Summit

                 May 19th, 2010

                   London, UK
Agenda


Strategic Infrastructure           Public Works


 Economics                           Internal Issues


 Trends                              Politics


 Projects                            Economics


 People                              Trends


 Public Sector

 Enhance Country/Regional Competitiveness • Public Goods Creation
World Infrastructure Spending
                                                                                                         1980-2030


                                                                                                   $3,000,000
                Infrastructure Spending in Millions of Dollars




                                                                                                   $2,250,000




                                                                                               $1,500,000




                                                                                              $750,000




                                                                                              $0
1980    1985    1990      1995       2000       2005       2010   2015   2020   2025   2030


Source: CG/LA Infrastructure Global 2030 Projections Model
                                                                                                                3
PART 1 - Overall Market Shape
GRAPH 6
            The Two Infrastructures - Old/Liquids & New/Electrons
                              General Fund            Venture Infrastructure Bank

                                                                                    Renewables
Central Generation (Coal)
                                                                              Smart Meters & Batteries
       Analog Grid
                                                                           Massive Technology Innovation
       Big Utilities

                                    1.3% of GDP       +1.7% of GDP
                                   State-Centered     Federal Driven
Interstate Highway System           High Carbon       Carbon Neutral                  Smart Grid
                                   Public Control     Public + Private
                                      Liquids           Electrons
     Diesel Rail                                                                     Electric Rail

    Large Vehicles                                                              Electric & Hybrid Cars

    Diesel Trucks                                                                   High Speed Rail




               A 50 Year Old Infrastructure Matrix   Innovation - Business Model, Finance,
                    & Project Delivery Model                 Technology, Operation
GRAPH 10
                                 The Ebb & Flow of Infrastructure Creation Models

              1960 - 1990               1990-1999          2000-2009                      2010 -
              State Investment           Privatization   Public/Private Partnership   Public Leadership


Concept               Public                Private        Public or Private          Public or Private


Feasibility           Public                Private             Private                    Private


   Bid                Public                Public              Public                      Public

 Finance              Public                Private             Private                    Public
                                                                                           Public


Construct             Private               Private             Private                     Private


  O&M                 Public                Private             Private                     Private



   REG                Public                 Public              Public                     Public
PART 2 - Country Infrastructure Capacity (CIC)
BRAZIL

48.9/1                                           !"#$
                                             +,-,./$
                                           *($
                                            &$           0123,4$5647.8$964:/,4;3$
            B.4;3$FH1,7>$<;=;4,7>$
                                                                <;=;4,7>$
                        '"#$                '$
                                                                !"%$
                                            %$
                                            )$
                                                                0123,4$5647.8$578;76?,4$
          B.4;3$F0<$G,8D-$                  ($
                                                                       <;=;4,7>$
                 &"($                                                  %"&$


               B./?$968D$08.A647$
                                                         @86;7$08.A647-$
                 068E.8D;/46$
                                                               '"%$
                          '"($
                                           B6;C68-:,=$
                                                 !"'$

         Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey
                                                                                           8
Russia

47.8/1                                           !"!#
                                             ,-.-/0#
                                           +&#

              C/5<4#GI2-8?#=<><5-8?#
                                            (#             1234-5#6758/9#
                                                         :75;0-5<4#=<><5-8?#
                                            $#
                       )"&#
                                                                 $"%#
                                            )#
                                            *#
                                                               1234-5#6758/9#689<87@-5#
             C/5<4#G1=#H-9E.#               &#
                                                                      =<><5-8?#
                      $"(#
                                                                           !"&#


                 C/0@#:79E#19/B758#
                                                         A97<8#19/B758.#
                   179F/9E<057#
                                                             '"%#
                          $"(#
                                           C7<D79.;->#
                                              $"%#


         Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey
                                                                                          9
India
                                              !"#$
51.3/3                                       ,-.-/0$
                                           +'$
                     C/5<4$GI2-8?$          )$             1234-5$6758/9$
                   )"'$
                      =<><5-8?$                          :75;0-5<4$=<><5-8?$
                                            !$
                                                                  %"&$
                                            *$
                                            ($
                                                                    1234-5$6758/9$
          C/5<4$G1=$H-9E.$                  '$
                                                                 689<87@-5$=<><5-8?$
                  &")$
                                                                         %"'$

              C/0@$:79E$19/B758$
                                                         A97<8$19/B758.$
                179F/9E<057$                              %"($
                         &"'$              C7<D79.;->$
                                                 !"#$

         Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey                                               10
China

                                             !"#$
65.3/8                                   +,-,./$
                                       *&$
                                        !$           0123,4$5647.8$964:/,4;3$
             B.4;3$FH1,7>$<;=;4,7>$
                                                            <;=;4,7>$
                            !"%$        )$                    !"%$
                                        ($
                                        '$
                                                            0123,4$5647.8$578;76?,4$
            B.4;3$F0<$G,8D-$            &$
                                                                   <;=;4,7>$
                     #"#$
                                                                       !"#$


                B./?$968D$08.A647$
                                                     @86;7$08.A647-$
                  068E.8D;/46$
                               #"%$
                                                           !"#$
                                       B6;C68-:,=$

                                          !"#$

     Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey                                                   11
U.S.

41.2/0                                           !"#$
                                             ,-.-/0$
                                           +#$
                     C/5<4$GI2-8?$          *$             1234-5$6758/9$
                       =<><5-8?$                         :75;0-5<4$=<><5-8?$
                                            !$
                        %"($                                    %"&$
                                            %$
                                            )$
                                                                   1234-5$6758/9$
          C/5<4$G1=$H-9E.$                  #$
                                                                689<87@-5$=<><5-8?$
                    ("&$                                               %"'$


               C/0@$:79E$19/B758$
                                                         A97<8$19/B758.$
                 179F/9E<057$
                                                             ("!$
                           (")$
                                           C7<D79.;->$
                                                 %"&$

         Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey
                                                                                         12
United States Infrastructure Investment
                                                                                                             2008-2015


                                                                                      296,935.0
                                                                                                   $300,000


                                                                        254,777.0




                                                                                                  $225,000

                                                            192,306.0



                                                158,116.0
                                                                                                  $150,000
                                    133,726.0
126,396.0   128,165.0

                        112,972.0




                                                                                              $75,000




                                                                                             $0
   2008       2009        2010       2011        2012       2013        2014        2015




                                                                                                                  13
BRICUS SCORING




                                                                                                           9




                                                                                                          6.75




                                                                                                          4.5




                                                                                                      2.25

VISION
         PS TECHNICAL
                        PS STRATEGIC
                                       GREAT PROJECTS
                                                        LEADERSHIP                                    0
                                                                     LT PERFORMANCE
                                                                                       EPC
                                                                                             EQUITY




                                                                                                                 15
PART 3 - What’s the Strategy Meaning?
BNDES - An Example of Strong Local Finance

Financial Piece - The Limiting Fact?
Brazil Does this Internally, through Their Development Bank


                                                                                      $US B
                                                                                30




                                                                               22.5




                                                                               15


                                                                    25.2
                                                            19.4           7.5
                                                    13.6
            3.4          5.2          7.1     8
            2003
                        2004
                                     2005                                  0
                                             2006
                                                    2007
                                                           2008
                                                                   2009



           Source: BNDES; CG/LA Interviews

                                                                                              17

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Norman anderson presentation gif

  • 1. Thinking about Global Infrastructure The Next Few Years Global Infrastructure Summit May 19th, 2010 London, UK
  • 2. Agenda Strategic Infrastructure Public Works Economics Internal Issues Trends Politics Projects Economics People Trends Public Sector Enhance Country/Regional Competitiveness • Public Goods Creation
  • 3. World Infrastructure Spending 1980-2030 $3,000,000 Infrastructure Spending in Millions of Dollars $2,250,000 $1,500,000 $750,000 $0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: CG/LA Infrastructure Global 2030 Projections Model 3
  • 4. PART 1 - Overall Market Shape
  • 5. GRAPH 6 The Two Infrastructures - Old/Liquids & New/Electrons General Fund Venture Infrastructure Bank Renewables Central Generation (Coal) Smart Meters & Batteries Analog Grid Massive Technology Innovation Big Utilities 1.3% of GDP +1.7% of GDP State-Centered Federal Driven Interstate Highway System High Carbon Carbon Neutral Smart Grid Public Control Public + Private Liquids Electrons Diesel Rail Electric Rail Large Vehicles Electric & Hybrid Cars Diesel Trucks High Speed Rail A 50 Year Old Infrastructure Matrix Innovation - Business Model, Finance, & Project Delivery Model Technology, Operation
  • 6. GRAPH 10 The Ebb & Flow of Infrastructure Creation Models 1960 - 1990 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010 - State Investment Privatization Public/Private Partnership Public Leadership Concept Public Private Public or Private Public or Private Feasibility Public Private Private Private Bid Public Public Public Public Finance Public Private Private Public Public Construct Private Private Private Private O&M Public Private Private Private REG Public Public Public Public
  • 7. PART 2 - Country Infrastructure Capacity (CIC)
  • 8. BRAZIL 48.9/1 !"#$ +,-,./$ *($ &$ 0123,4$5647.8$964:/,4;3$ B.4;3$FH1,7>$<;=;4,7>$ <;=;4,7>$ '"#$ '$ !"%$ %$ )$ 0123,4$5647.8$578;76?,4$ B.4;3$F0<$G,8D-$ ($ <;=;4,7>$ &"($ %"&$ B./?$968D$08.A647$ @86;7$08.A647-$ 068E.8D;/46$ '"%$ '"($ B6;C68-:,=$ !"'$ Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey 8
  • 9. Russia 47.8/1 !"!# ,-.-/0# +&# C/5<4#GI2-8?#=<><5-8?# (# 1234-5#6758/9# :75;0-5<4#=<><5-8?# $# )"&# $"%# )# *# 1234-5#6758/9#689<87@-5# C/5<4#G1=#H-9E.# &# =<><5-8?# $"(# !"&# C/0@#:79E#19/B758# A97<8#19/B758.# 179F/9E<057# '"%# $"(# C7<D79.;-># $"%# Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey 9
  • 10. India !"#$ 51.3/3 ,-.-/0$ +'$ C/5<4$GI2-8?$ )$ 1234-5$6758/9$ )"'$ =<><5-8?$ :75;0-5<4$=<><5-8?$ !$ %"&$ *$ ($ 1234-5$6758/9$ C/5<4$G1=$H-9E.$ '$ 689<87@-5$=<><5-8?$ &")$ %"'$ C/0@$:79E$19/B758$ A97<8$19/B758.$ 179F/9E<057$ %"($ &"'$ C7<D79.;->$ !"#$ Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey 10
  • 11. China !"#$ 65.3/8 +,-,./$ *&$ !$ 0123,4$5647.8$964:/,4;3$ B.4;3$FH1,7>$<;=;4,7>$ <;=;4,7>$ !"%$ )$ !"%$ ($ '$ 0123,4$5647.8$578;76?,4$ B.4;3$F0<$G,8D-$ &$ <;=;4,7>$ #"#$ !"#$ B./?$968D$08.A647$ @86;7$08.A647-$ 068E.8D;/46$ #"%$ !"#$ B6;C68-:,=$ !"#$ Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey 11
  • 12. U.S. 41.2/0 !"#$ ,-.-/0$ +#$ C/5<4$GI2-8?$ *$ 1234-5$6758/9$ =<><5-8?$ :75;0-5<4$=<><5-8?$ !$ %"($ %"&$ %$ )$ 1234-5$6758/9$ C/5<4$G1=$H-9E.$ #$ 689<87@-5$=<><5-8?$ ("&$ %"'$ C/0@$:79E$19/B758$ A97<8$19/B758.$ 179F/9E<057$ ("!$ (")$ C7<D79.;->$ %"&$ Source: CG/LA Annual CIC Survey 12
  • 13. United States Infrastructure Investment 2008-2015 296,935.0 $300,000 254,777.0 $225,000 192,306.0 158,116.0 $150,000 133,726.0 126,396.0 128,165.0 112,972.0 $75,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 13
  • 14. BRICUS SCORING 9 6.75 4.5 2.25 VISION PS TECHNICAL PS STRATEGIC GREAT PROJECTS LEADERSHIP 0 LT PERFORMANCE EPC EQUITY 15
  • 15. PART 3 - What’s the Strategy Meaning?
  • 16. BNDES - An Example of Strong Local Finance Financial Piece - The Limiting Fact? Brazil Does this Internally, through Their Development Bank $US B 30 22.5 15 25.2 19.4 7.5 13.6 3.4 5.2 7.1 8 2003 2004 2005 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: BNDES; CG/LA Interviews 17