NXT Energy Solutions has developed a quantum gravity sensor called the Stress Field Detector (SFD) technology that can detect fluid reservoirs by identifying changes in gravitational fields 10 times faster and at 1/10th the cost of existing methods. The SFD technology has successfully identified hydrocarbon reservoirs during tests and is gaining commercial acceptance from oil and gas companies. While commercialization remains a risk, increased revenue, new contracts, and proof of technology provide upside potential. Management aims to achieve $2-5 million in earnings in 2012, which could value the company significantly higher based on peers.
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Rocks to Riches Report on NXT Energy Solutions
1. Rocks To Riches
Published: NXT Energy Solutions
th
August 14 2012 (SFD-TSX.V) (NSFDF:OTC)
www.nxtenergy.com
Capital
Structure Weighted Avg Weighted Avg
Basic Options Option Warrants Warrant Fully Diluted
Exercise Price Exercise Price
39.5 million 3.23 million $1.02 4.5 million US$1.20 57.3 million
The fully diluted value includes 10 million preferred shares held by the CEO George Liszicasz. Refer to end of report for details.
Market Cap CDN$31.6 million (as of August 13th 2012)
Cash Position About $3 million. No debt. Enterprise Value: $28.6 million (As of August 13th 2012)
Liquidity Average 6 month trading volume: 12,337 shares/day
Top
Shareholders Major Shareholders Shares or percentage held
George Liszicasz 5.2 million shares and 10 million preferred shares
Director and Officer holdings 15.9% basic and 32.0% diluted
Mork Capital Management and its Fund Manager 2.4 million shares (6%)
Goodman & Company 1.5 million shares (3.8%)
Investment The successful application of new technologies can have profound effects on businesses, saving time
Opportunity and money, increasing production and improving safety. But these new technologies must first be
proven in the real world before they gain commercial acceptance.
I rarely get excited by new technologies, and I am often more skeptical of them then of fast talking
mining promoters. That being said, I have become very excited with NXT Energy Solutions. This
company has developed a quantum gravity sensor that can detect fluid reservoirs. This has exciting
applications in the oil and gas industry.
It is not a direct hydrocarbon indicator, nor can it determine exact drill locations or different fluid
types. The Stress Field Detector (“SFD”) technology effectively identifies geological structures and
reservoir potential which enables oil companies to quickly focus their more expensive exploration
activities (Seismic surveys and drilling) on the most prospective areas. This significantly reduces time,
money and risk. NXT intends to have its SFD technology become an integral part of every
explorationist’s toolbox.
After years of development and validation, NXT Energy Solutions has introduced its unique airborne
service in 2006. I believe the company is now on the verge of commercial acceptance and its SFD
technology will become an integral tool in the oil and gas exploration industry. The company is on
track to post a record year in revenues in 2012.
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Bottom Line: The SFD technology identifies and ranks high potential oil reservoir prospects 10 times faster
Why I like and at 1/10th the cost of existing methods onshore. The cost of conducting seismic programs
SFD
can range between $20,000-to-$60,000/line km and is a time intensive process. The SFD tool
works equally well over difficult terrains and offshore environments.
By identifying the best targets on massive regional-scale properties, the technology
significantly reduces the environmental footprint an oil and gas company would normally
make, in addition to reducing permitting time and exploration costs.
The annual global geophysics market is valued at $12 billion. Acquiring even a small fraction
of this market share is significant in terms of revenue.
The company leases its planes and builds its own instruments and normally has a 50% to 85%
gross margin. NXT Energy Solutions is the sole global supplier of the SFD Technology.
NXT plans to develop multiple steams of revenue that vertically integrate its technology, with
the most exciting revenue stream coming in the form of a prospect generator. By leveraging
its proprietary data collected outside of client contracts, the company hopes to farm out
quality reservoir targets to newly seeded public companies in return for an equity stake, or
royalty.
The company already has a 1.5% Gross Overriding Royalty (GORR) on a shale gas resource in
the Horn River Basin and Puskwa oil/gas play with Pengrowth Energy Corporation. This
represents another potential future revenue stream.
Big Picture potential – Everything, including matter, has wave properties, just like light or
sound. Can this quantum technology be applied effectively to hard rock exploration? NXT
says yes.
Most NXT must show that it can significantly build its cash flow which will depend largely on its ability to
Significant demonstrate the value of the NXT survey system to a much wider client base. This commercialization
Risks
phase of the business can last for several years and the company’s financial position is currently
dependent upon attracting new clients.
Towards that end, the company is ramping up its survey capacity, outfitting more planes and building
and calibrating more SFD instruments. In addition, it has hired and is training more quality
interpreters to handle increased business demand. In December 2011, Grafton Withers joined NXT as
Vice-President, Marketing & Sales. Mr. Withers spent 20 years in senior management roles in
international postings with the Schlumberger group, one of the top international service providers to
the oil & gas exploration and production sectors.
Upcoming NXT has recently made technical presentations to new client prospects in Mexico, Brazil,
Catalysts
Columbia, the Middle East and Africa. I anticipate the company will announce a string of new
contracts in the coming months.
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Additional contracts will add to the company’s revenue stream and build investor confidence.
Proof of In Columbia, NXT Energy flew blind across the Rubiales oil field complex in May 2009 and identified
Technology high-grade anomalies over areas with known oil traps, further confirmation that the SFD Technology
can effectively identify oil/gas reservoirs (Refer to Figure 1). Pacific Rubiales, a producing oil company
with a market capitalization of $7 billion, is a repeat customer for NXT. To date, NXT has completed
contracts and tests valued at $2.6 million and has recently completed $3.5 million of a signed Letter
of Intent valued at $4.5 million to explore 6 blocks in Columbia and Guatemala.
Figure 1) Pacific Rubiales oil field SFD Signal response
The Ladyfern natural gas fields were discovered in 2000 and hosts 825 Billion Cubic Feet (BCF) of
proven gas reserves. In 2007 NXT flew across the Ladyfern Reef and as you can see by the diagram
(Figure 2) on the next page, the SFD technology clearly identified the reservoir and even managed to
discover smaller untested anomalies.
There are numerous other examples on the company website that shows proof of technology. Follow
this link SFD Case Studies
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Figure 2). Ladyfern Reef Gas Field SFD Signal Response
How SFD The SFD technology measures changes in the gravitational field using quantum detectors. The
Works company uses multiple sensors since each responds to changes in the gravity field differently.
Additional sensors are always in the process of being calibrated in order to be able to quickly expand
operations and replace old sensors when necessary. The detectors do not respond to magnitude
changes in gravity (like traditional gravity meters). Instead they are sensitive to changes in the
orientation of the gravitational field caused by stress changes in the rocks.
SFD technology takes advantage of the fact that everything, including all matter, has wave properties.
The wave properties of gravity are affected by stress, just as light propagation is affected by stress. It
is true that quantum devices can detect changes in the direction of the gravitational field [this is the
basis of quantum gravity gradiometers that was first demonstrated by M. Snadden et al., Phys. Rev.
Lett. 81, 971 (1998)]. Stress energy caused by regional tectonics acting on a rock mass can lead to
changes in the direction (and magnitude) of the gravitational field: this follows from the theory of
General Relativity that holds that all forms of energy are sources for the gravitational field.
Anisotropic stress in turn will cause a re-orientation (rotation) of the horizontal gravity field.
The SFD quantum detectors identify directional changes in stress fields that deviate from larger scale
background trends. These anomalies can be correlated to subsurface stress anomalies caused by the
development of fluid traps, fault systems and lithologic boundaries. Refer to Figure 3 on next page.
This is especially useful with respect to oil exploration, since oil traps are often associated with
pressure shadows (areas of lower stress related to areas of higher stress). The SFD sensors detect and
record the changes in the orientation of the gravity-stress field as it is flown over an oil field as seen
in figures 1 and 2.
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SFD sensors are designed to be immersed and ‘float’ in the regional gravity field using a proprietary
approach that utilizes the wave/particle duality of matter. Each sensor element has a near zero mass
and is sensitive to the rotational effects of the horizontal gravity field as opposed to the vertical
gravity field.
What the SFD devise does and does not respond to:
Magnitude changes in the density of the local rock will not affect the equilibrium state of the
SFD sensors.
Sudden lithologic contrasts may ‘knock’ the sensor out of its equilibrium (which is a
recognizable signal response). The sensors will then return to their equilibrium state.
In order to detect variations of the in‐situ ‘stress‐states’ the sensors are moved across the
field at high velocity in a straight line. If the aircraft is turning sharply, it is perceived by the
sensor that stress orientation is changing.
SFD sensors do not respond to topographic changes. Shear stress does not exist at surface,
only at depth.
Figure 3) SFD Response to Horizontal Stress Fields
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Potential applications in hard rock exploration
NXT personnel are successfully using their SFD quantum detectors to identify the distinct patterns of
gravity waves over hydrocarbon traps. In the future, a version of the tool could potentially be applied
to determine if there are identifiable wave patterns over specific styles of hard rock deposits, like
gold, copper, nickel, etc.
Valuation At this early stage of the commercialization process, it is difficult to assess value other then the
purely speculative potential. If we look at a group of successful, publicly traded, geophysical
companies, such as the ones in the chart below, we can derive an average Enterprise Value per
EBITDA ratio and compare it with what we expect NXT Energy will earn in 2012. (The Data below was
sourced from Bloomberg).
Market Enterprise EBITDA
Company Capitalization Value (2011) EV/EBITDA
(millions) (millions) (millions)
Pulse Seismic (TSX-PSD) $148.89 $179.49 $42.94 4.18x
Ion Geophysical (NYSE-IO) $977.20 1024.87 $158.03 6.48x
Global Geophysical (NYSE-
$194.89 $457.26 $187.47 2.44x
GGS)
Fugro (NYSE-FURGF) $4,220.09 $5,530.82 $583.10 9.49x
TGC Industries (NASDAQ-
$189.15 $198.84 $37.38 5.32x
TGE)
5.58x
Average
-$3.47
NXT Energy Solutions $31.6 $28.6 -8.8x
(2011)
According to Bloomberg, the company’s 2011 EBITDA was -$3.47 million. However, in the first
quarter of 2012 NXT posted a record quarter as well as a profit. It seems that NXT is on track have
their best year ever. I believe it is not unreasonable to target $2-to-$5 million in earnings this year
based on the company’s recent increase in client contracts.
The average EV/EBITDA ratio for the group of companies listed above is 5.58. Based on NXT Energy’s
earnings growth potential in 2012, I believe the company is currently only trading at a fraction of its
potential value when we compare it with its potential peer group.
With a growing list of clients who are being won over by the SFD Technology, it’s not difficult to see
NXT Energy Solution’s future revenue generation potential. Some of the company’ past and present
clients include: Pengrowth, Pacific Rubiales, Ecopetrol, Hocol, BP Columbia, PCR (Argentina), PPL
(South Asia), Encal Energy, Renaissance Energy, Nexstar Energy Montana Exploration, CamWest
Exploration, Infinity Oil and Gas Rosetta Energy and Virtus Energy.
Independent Geoff Carrington, Ph.D., P. Geoph., made the following comments in a report he authored on the
Assessments SFD technology. “As a result of studies conducted by five independent third parties, the success rate
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7. Rocks To Riches
of SFD in detecting known hydrocarbon accumulations varies from over 60% to nearly 90%.”
The report concludes: “The time and cost savings realized when using the SFD as the first step in
evaluating a large block of land can amount to years and many millions of dollars.”
Dr. Jairo Lugo, Sr. VP Exploration, Pacific Rubiales Energy stated; “The SFD survey system allowed us
to do a timely evaluation of our TEA block in the Putumayo basin. We are making extensive us of the
SFD data concurrently with the rest of the information to select the best area for future exploration.”
Management Management and Board of Directors Position
Team
George Liszicasz Director, Chairman, CEO and inventor of the
SFD Technology
Andrew Steedman VP Operations
Greg Leavens VP Finance and CFO
Grafton Withers VP Sales and Marketing
Charles Selby Director
Brian Kohlhammer Director
John Agee Director
M. S. (Mickey) Abougoush Director
Thomas Valentine Director
Chart 1. Warrant and Option Pricing and Expiry Dates and detail on Preferred Shares
Warrants Exercise Price Expiry Date
March 7th-to May 4th,
4.5 million *US$1.20
2014
Options Price
105,600 $0.45
150,000 $0.53
640,000 $0.63
425,000 $0.75
890,000 $0.86
150,000 $0.89
455,000 $1.16
100,000 $1.00
100,000 $2.00
100,000 $3.00
100,000 $4.00
Total 3,215,600 Avg $1.02
*All options are priced in Canadian, only the warrants are in US$ as a result of the spring 2012 financing that was done in US$ at
US$0.75/unit.
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Preferred Shares: George Liszicasz: Director, Chairman, CEO and inventor of the SFD Technology holds 10 million
preferred shares that are convertible under the following circumstances. (To date none of the shares have been
converted).
2 million preferred shares became convertible into common shares upon issue.
The remaining 8 million preferred shares may become convertible into common shares in four separate tranches
when NXT achieves specific cumulative revenue thresholds of US$50 million, US$100 million, US$250 million and
US $500 million prior to December 31st 2015. (Cumulative revenue is the sum of total revenue earn plus
proceeds from the sale of assets accumulated since January 1st 2007).
In the event that the final cumulative revenue of US$500 million is not achieved by the end of 2015, NXT has the option
to either redeem any unconverted preferred shares for a price of $0.01 per share and forfeit the SFD technology or
retain the ownership of the technology by converting all the remaining preferred shares into common shares. As of
December 31st 2011, NXT has generated a cumulative revevnue of about US$12.2 million that can be applied to the
above conversion thresholds.
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All references to material contained in this Rocks To Riches report is public information sourced from the company’s website, press releases,
personal communication with Management.
Thomas Schuster, the author of the Rocks To Riches Report, was only compensated for his time to write this report about NXT Energy Solutions.
Thomas currently holds securities in NXT Energy Solutions.
To receive an electronic copy of this report and future reports please contact Mr. Schuster at Thomas@RockstoRiches.ca
About the Author
With a degree in Geological Sciences from the University of Toronto, Thomas started his career in the early 1990s as an exploration geologist in the
famous Timmins mining camp in Northern Ontario. He then moved to Vancouver and took a position as staff Journalist at the well-known mining
publication, The Northern Miner, reporting the merits and shortcomings of Canadian exploration and mining projects worldwide. This built a
foundation for his later work as a Mining Analyst for the Toronto-based institutional investment firm, Fraser Mackenzie. Thomas is currently based
in Vancouver working as an independent consulting mining analyst.
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