[Feb 2020] - India @ 2030 - Mohandas Pai

India@2030
How Tech Entrepreneurship will create a
USD 10 Trillion Economy
TV Mohandas Pai | 3one4 Capital
@TVMohandasPai | @3one4Capital | #India2030

India is ready to take its place as a top
3 economy in the world by 2030
“
”
TV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 Capital

India at a glance
Population 1.38 Bn 2020
Population Growth Rate 0.99% 2020
Total Fertility Rate (Replacement rate - 2.1) 2.0 2019
Life Expectancy: Male 68.4 yrs 2020
Life Expectancy: Female 71.2 yrs 2020
Literacy 79.3% 2011
GDP (at current prices) USD 2,903 Bn 2020
Real GDP growth 5% 2020
GDP (in PPP) (3rd Largest Economy) USD 12,584 Bn 2020
Per capita Income (nominal) USD 2,104 2020
Exports USD 536 Bn 2020
Imports USD 616 Bn 2020
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD 467 Bn Dec 2019
Government External Borrowings USD 111 Bn 2019
External Debt (Govt & Non-Govt) USD 580 Bn 2020
Interest to Gross Revenue 23% 2020
Gross Debt / GDP ratio 69% 2019

Key
Economic
Indicators
29Years’Snapshot
Post-Liberalization
2020 vs 1991
2020 1991 CAGR
Population (Bn) 1.38 0.89 1.5%
Life Expectancy (Years) 69 58.8 0.6%
Literacy Rate 79.3% (2011) 52%
GDP Growth Rate 5% 5.3%
GDP (at current prices) - INR Cr 204.4 lakhs 5.32 lakhs 13.4%
GDP (at current prices) - USD Bn 2,903 275 8.5%
Per capita income (nominal) - USD 2,104 310 6.8%
Exports - USD Bn 2019 536 18 12.4%
Imports - USD Bn 2019 616 24 11.8%
Share in world trade (exports +
imports)
3% 1%
Foreign Currency Reserves - USD Bn 467 5.8 16.3%
Exchange Rate - USD 70.04 17.9 4.8%
Savings Rate 30.1% 22.9%
Investment Rate 29.7% 22.5%

GDP Growth (%)
Regaining Growth Momentum
Source: CSO
5.2%
5.5%
6.4%
7.4%
8.0%
8.2%
7.2%
6.8%
5.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Consumer Price Index
(Average Annual Inflation %)
Source: MOSPI, RBI
(*CPI-IW for 2009-11)
12.4%
10.4%
8.4%
10.2%
9.5%
5.9%
4.9%
4.5%
3.6%
4.7%
3.4%
4.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Source: RBI, CSO
Growth without impacting deficit & CPI
8.4%
10.2%
9.5%
5.9%
4.9%
4.5%
3.6%
4.7%
3.4%
4.1%
4.8%
5.9%
4.9%
4.5%
4.1%
3.9%
3.5%
3.3% 3.4%
3.8%
8.9%
5.2%
5.5%
6.4%
7.4%
8.0%
8.2%
7.2%
6.8%
5.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
CPI (Annual Inflation %) Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) GDP Growth Rate (%)

GDP Projections
We are where China was in 2002
India needs to grow at 9% CAGR net of inflation (~4%) to build a USD 10T economy by 2030
China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.4% p.a. from 1979 to 2019
TRILLIONS

Regions
GDP 2018 GDP 2025 GDP 2030 CAGR
USD Tn USD Tn USD Tn 2018-2031
US 20.5 24.0 26.9 2.3%
EU16 17.9 19.7 21.1 1.4%
Japan 4.5 4.7 4.8 0.5%
Other 9.6 9.9 9.9 2.3%
Total OECD 52.5 58.3 62.8 1.5%
China 13.3 20.1 26.9 6.0%
India 2.6 4.7 7.2 8.8%
Others 17.3 25.3 33.0 5.5%
Total RoW 33.3 50.0 67.0 6.0%
Total World 86.6 108.3 129.8 3.5%
The world is changing
TV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 Capital Currency appreciations considered
Source: OECD, analyst estimates

The world is changing
Asia’s Share of Global GDP (Historical & Projected)
Source: ADB, Maddison, CGI

India & China at a glance
China has grown faster
Population 1.38 Bn2020 (E)
Population Growth Rate
Life Expectancy: Male
Life Expectancy: Female
Literacy
GDP (at current prices)
Real GDP growth
GDP (in PPP)
Per capita Income (nominal)
Exports
Imports
Foreign Exchange Reserves
External Debt (Govt & Non-Govt)
Gross Debt / GDP ratio
0.99%
68.4 yrs
71.2 yrs
79.3% (2011)
USD 2,903 Bn
5.0%
USD 12,584 Bn
USD 2,104
USD 536 Bn
USD 616 Bn
USD 467 Bn
USD 543 Bn
68%
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2019 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
2020 (E)
Dec 2019 (E)
Dec 2019 (E)
2020 (E)
1.44 Bn
0.39%
74 yrs
78.4 yrs
96.4%
USD 15,468 Bn
6.1%
USD 29,609 Bn
USD 10,741
USD 2,490 Bn
USD 2,140 Bn
USD 3,236 Bn
USD 1,598 Bn
249%
INDIA CHINA

Government Fiscal Getting Better
Strong reforms and the use of JAM has reduced subsidy leakage
(INR Cr) 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 (A) 2017-18 (RE) 2018-19 (BE)
Oil (Petroleum) 60,269 30,000 27,539 24,460 24,933
Food 1,17,671 1,39,419 1,10,172 1,40,282 1,69,323
Fertiliser 71,076 72,438 66,313 64,974 70,080
Interest 7,632 16,730 17,888 23,635 20,917
Other Subsidies 9,252 15,944 12,896 10,774 7,572
Total - Budget 2,65,900 2,74,531 2,34,808 2,64,125 2,92,825
MGNREGA 36,025 44,003 48,215 55,000 55,000
Total Actual Subsidy 3,01,925 3,18,534 2,83,023 3,19,125 3,47,825
% GDP 2.43% 2.33% 1.86% 1.88% 1.86%
DBT enabled transfer to beneficiaries (FY 14-19) INR 9.21 Lakh Crore ($131.5Bn)
DBT enabled transfer to beneficiaries (FY 18) INR 2.18 Lakh Crore ($31.1Bn)
DBT enabled savings for the Government (FY 14-18) INR 1.70 Lakh Crore ($24.3Bn)
Ayushman India (Healthcare, INR 500K per family per year) Covers 100Mn Families
Source: Budget, dbtbharat.gov.in, M/o Finance

Strong Industrial & Infrastructure Base
INDIA
JAPAN
USA
107
(Second largest
in the world)
104
87
502
(Second largest
in the world)
55
120
24.5
(Largest
in the world)
-
-
5.1
(Fifth largest
in the world)
9.7
11.3
1
(Sixth largest
in the world)
-
-
191
(Fourth largest
in the world)
-
1,600
1,260
(Third largest
in the world)
1,020
4,280
1,162
(Second largest
in the world)
173
392
Production
in Mn
tonnes
Capacity in
Mn tonnes
Production
in Mn Units
Production
in Mn
Units
Bn Sq. ft. Revenue
in USD Bn
TWh Subscribers
in Mn
Steel Cement
Two
Wheeler
Four
Wheeler
Construction ITeS
Electricity
Production
Wireless
Phone

INDIA
739.4
(Second largest
in the world)
220
(Fourth largest
in the world)
345
(Seventh largest
in the world)
5.6
(Third largest
in the world)
1.2
(2.5 by 2020)
1260
(Third largest
in the world)
67.5
(Second largest
in the world)
Production
(Mn MT)
Production
(Mn tonnes)
Passenger
Traffic (Mn)
Network
(‘000 Kms)
Network
(Mn Kms)
Cargo Traffic
(Bn MT)
Production
(Bn Units)
Production
(USD Bn)
Coal Iron Ore Aviation Railway Roadway Ports Electricity Textile
67.4
(Fourth largest
in the world)
Strong Industrial & Infrastructural Base
− Exports stood at USD 331 billion in 2018-19, growing at 10%
− Ranked 35th in Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2016 (up 19 ranks)
− Air passenger traffic is growing at 16.5%, to become 3rd largest by 2024
− Automobile production is growing at 14.8% and exports at 16.1%
− Produces 95 minerals - 4 fuel-related, 10 metallic, 23 non-metallic, 3 atomic, and
55 others

Strong Agricultural Base
INDIA
283
(Second largest
in the world)
176
(Largest in
the world)
33
(Largest in
the world)
35.5
(Second largest
in the world)
2.8
(Largest
in the world)
179.8
(Largest
in the world)
512
(Largest
in the world)
Production
(Mn tonnes)
Production
(Mn tonnes)
Production
(Mn bales)
Production
(Mn tonnes)
Production
(Mn tonnes)
Exports
(in USD Bn)
(Mn hectares)
Population
(Mn)
Food Grains Milk Cotton Horticulture Sugar Spices Cropland Livestock
315
(Second largest
in the world)
− Major producer of agrochemicals, tea, cashew, jute, oilseeds, etc.
− Largest exporter of cereal products, cotton, bovine meat, sugar, etc.
− All 15 major climates in the world; 46 of the 60 soil types in the world
− Largest manufacturers of farm equipment
− Proximity to food importing nations
− Consumer spending to reach USD 3.6 Tn by 2020

INR 28.19 Lakh Crore ~= USD 400 Bn
Source: BSE, RBI, AMFI
15.40
30.86
74.15
158.98
2003-04 2008-09 2013-14 2018-19
Indian Equity Market Capitalisation
(in INR Lakh Crores)
INR 158.98 Lakh Crore ~= USD 2.3 Tn
Strong Financial Base
5.41 7.61
28.19
July 2008 July 2013 Jan 2020
Indian Mutual Fund Total AUM
(in INR Lakh Crores)
9.31
23.47
64.37
2006-07 2011-12 2019-20
FDI into India
(in USD Bn)
2019-20

We have a Young Population
We are NOT an aging country!
29
37 37
45
48
INDIA CHINA USA W EUROPE JAPAN
AVERAGE AGE BY GEOGRAPHY 2020

We will continue to have a Young
Population
India’s working population is
expected to total two-thirds of
the total population in 2025
Higher aspirations & increased
demand for skilled labor leads
to higher education levels
We have a growing middle class
(~300Mn) which is increasing its
consumption
India
Source: UN

Enrolment in
professional
courses grew at
20% CAGR
Pvt Institutions
account for 78%
institutions &
67% of enrolment
500 Mn
population in
5-24 age bracket
Higher Education Infrastructure
Growth is about people, we have increased access
in Higher Education
Number of Universities
993
Number of Colleges
50,656
Total: 32.77 Mn
Gross Enrolment
Ratio in Higher
Education in
India is 26.3%
General Courses (Mn) Specialised Courses (Mn)
Arts 9.35 Engineering 4.08
Commerce 4.49 IT / CS 0.95
Science 5.35 Management 1.30
Education 1.67 Medical 1.36
Social Science 1.64 Law 0.43
Others 2.16
Total 23.6 9.10
Source: AISHE 2018-19

We have adequate savings for investments
and growth
In addition to exports, China’s GDP
growth is investment-led
Investment as a % of GDP stands at
>50% over the last few years
Consumption, on the other
hand, is very low @ 48% of GDP
This results in high savings at
over 50% of GDP
V S
Source: Economic Survey Data Table
INDIA
CHINA

GDP by sector
We have different patterns
INDIA CHINA
16%
30%
54%
Agriculture Industry Services
7%
41%
52%
Agriculture Industry Services

INDIA’S
CHALLENGES

33.48%
53.66%
23.79%
29.02%
42.74%
17.32%
WORKFORCE DISTRIBUTION 2017 GVA BY SECTOR, 2016-17
1. Dependency on the Agriculture sector
Source: RBI, World Bank, MOSPI
₹41,621
₹125,231
₹164,569
PER CAPITA GVA BY
SECTOR, 2017
GVA GROWTH
RATE, 2017-18
PRODUCTIVITY = WORKFORCE VS. GVA

86.6
82.3
74.5
59.2
55.3 55.3
50.3
42.5
34.0
BRAZIL USA EUROPE CHINA INDONESIA WORLD NIGERIA AFRICA INDIA
URBAN POPULATION (%) - MOST POPULOUS REGIONS, 2017
2. Low rate of Urbanisation
Source: United NationsTV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 Capital

3. 11 Mn new formal sector jobs in FY2017-18
TV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 Capital Source: Census, Ghosh & Ghosh Report
3.4 Mn
0.2 Mn
0.3 Mn
3.9 Mn
11 Mn
4 MnJobs that need to be created

4. Access to the basic necessities of living
Health assurance to 346M beneficiaries
under Ayushman Bharat Scheme
HEALTHCARE
Drop off rate to be curbed - enrollment in
class 10 at 77% vs. class 11 at 52%
EDUCATION
"Housing for All" has subsidized financing
for 1.5 Crore homes since 2014
HOUSING
93% of India’s population has access to
clean water close to home
WATER
100% village electrification achieved in 988
days covering 18,452 villages
ELECTRIFICATION
85% of the country’s habitations connected
with all-weather roads under PMGSY
ROADS
99% individual household latrines (IHHL)
achieved under Swachh Bharat Mission
SANITATION
All 36 states/UTs now covered under NFSA
vs. 11 in 2014
FOOD SECURITY
775Mn Mobile phone users in India in 2018,
158Mn smartphones sold p.a.
MOBILE
85% Indians owned a bank account in 2019
owing to Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana
BANKING
Rose from 120M to 250M since 2014, 72M
rural women provided free connectivity
GAS CONNECTIONS
500Mn first-time internet users are
expected to come online by 2020
INTERNET
TV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 Capital Source: Government bodies, World Bank, Global Carbon Project, UNESCO, UNDP, WaterAid

“
”
The Startup Ecosystem will help
create a USD 10 Trillion
economy in India by 2030

Digitization has transformed the world…
Source: We Are Social

…and India has benefited tremendously
Source: We Are Social

3rd
largest startup
ecosystem in the World
270%
growth in 6 years
40,000+
startups
USD 160Bn
Value Created
India Startup
Ecosystem
Source: Yourstory, Inc42, Tracxn

Startups at a glance
Startups have raised
USD 60Bn since 2014
250+ Accelerators &
Incubators
500+ Institutional Investors
2000+ Active Investors
495 Acquisitions
67%
of all active
startups
are concentrated in
Bengaluru, Mumbai
and Delhi-NCR
Bengaluru saw 47%
of the total deal value
between 2017-19
Delhi
Mumbai
Bengaluru
15%
15%
20%
% deals per city
Source: Yourstory, Inc42
Startups raised USD 14.5Bn across 1,185 deals in 2019,
against USD 13.7Bn across 820 deals that was invested in 2017
Hyderabad
9%
Chennai
6%

New flywheel ramping up
IT Services took off
2015
USD 191 Bn revenue
USD 137 Bn exports
4.5 Mn People Employed
1989
2025
100,000
Startups
Employ
3.25 Mn
USD 500 Bn
Market Value
#2
after US
100
Unicorns
Projections
ITServices
2025
Startups take off
Startups
What lies in store
TV Mohandas Pai © 3one4 CapitalSource: IBEF, Nasscom

India’s
33+ unicorns
have created
100Bn in value
There will be
100+ unicorns in
India by 2025
Source: Yourstory, Inc42, tracxn

Enterprise Tech
16,000+ startups
~35% of all active
startups in India
583 deals
$3Bn Funding
(2014-2018)
Source: Inc42 – Indian Startup Funding Report

Top New Age
DeepTech
Companies

Most Active Venture Capital Investors
Source: Yourstory

Corporate Investors increasing confidence
Source: CBInsights

Accelerated growth led to the creation of
global giants
Source: KPCB, BCG
China has shown the way

The scale that digital platforms reach,
allowed vertical leaders to become
ecosystem orchestrators
Source: McKinsey
Internet giants are
seeding the next
frontier

So what will the future of.
Startups look like?.

Use of Digital Platforms

Provides a modern
privacy data sharing
framework
Game changing
electronic payment
systems and transition
to cashless economy
Rapidly growing base
of paperless systems
with billions of
artefacts
Unique digital
biometric identity
with open access of
nearly a Billion users
CONSENT
LAYER
CASHLESS
LAYER
PAPERLESS
LAYER
PRESENCE-LESS
LAYER
Open Personal
Data Store
IMPS, AEPS, APB,
and UPI
Aadhaar e-KYC,
E-sign, Digital Locker
Aadhaar
Authentication
COMMERCE
(GSTn)
CREDIT
(RBI)
INVESTMENTS
(SEBI)
SKILLS OTHERS
JAM
Jan Dhan Aadhaar Mobile+ +
India
Stack

The evolution of India Stack
Source: BCG

Source: BCG, Ministry of Finance, GSTN, NPCI
Rapid formalisation & digitisation
12.3M unique GST
filers as on Oct 2019,
grew from 3.6M in Apr
2014, a 340% increase
8.74B UPI transactions
in LTM till Sep 2019, up
from 2.4B LTM till Sep
2018, a 365% increase
95% reduction in
Mobile data cost

India’s New Business Backbone
40% increase in one year
Registered Tax Payers
$24.3B (2014-2019)
DBT enabled savings
#142 in 2014 | #63 in 2019
Ease of Doing Business
Digital India
GST
India Stack
0.1B
2011 2020
1.25B
$0.4B
Mar ‘17 Feb‘20
$30.9B
7M
2014 2020
380M
Aadhar coverage is >90%
Monthly UPI Transacted Value
Jan Dhan Bank Accounts
$400B | 3X in 5yrs
Indian Mutual Funds AUM
Source: UIDAI, AMFI, DBT, NPCI

Aadhaar
Auth
Aadhaar
eKYC
eSign Digital Locker
Smart Devices Unified Payment
Mobile, Internet, GPS, Cloud
World-Class Products
are being built
on INDIA STACK,
a set of open API
based PUBLIC
PLATFORMS

Impact of the India Stack - Large Bank
Retail Customer Onboarding - Reimagining the User journey
with Aadhaar, eKYC, e-Sign and Digital Locker
Source: McKinsey & Company - Financial Services and Digital practices
Turnaround Time down from
6 days to 1 hour
Reduced Drop Offs First Time Right> 99%
Branch Capacity
Freed up by 10%
Back Office
No longer required

Impact of the India Stack - Large Asset Manager
Reimagining Channel Management - Digital Transformation
with Aadhaar eKYC
Source: McKinsey & Company - Financial Services and Digital practices
Transaction Time down from
4 hours to 2 mins
Statement processing time
Capacity freed up for lead generation
Reduced operational cost
Down from 1hr to 1 min
Improved customer retention

Impact of the India Stack – New Telecom
Customer Onboarding - Digital Transformation
with Aadhaar eKYC
Source: Conversations
Customer Experience
Onboarding time down from
1 day to 4 mins
Onboarding Rate
Saved INR 15 / SIM issued
50M in < 2 months
Saved 15,000 Trees
“Walk Out Working”

The rise of smartphones…
Current
smartphone sales
are at 37Mn per
quarter
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, IDC
45
468
859
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2015 2019 2022 (Projected)
Millions
Smartphone Penetration

Source: Kotak Equity Research, App Annie, Google, Kantar IMRB
57
190
493
627
2008
2013
2019
(MAU)
2019
(Total)
Internet Users in
India (Mn)
└ ACCESS
• Jio helped cut data-access costs significantly in
2017, helping increase India’s internet
penetration to 627M users in 2019
• Exponential increase in data traffic in India, with
consumption reaching 10.6GB/user/month
Data usage per customer
Q2FY20 - 10.59GB
Avg Daily Hours Spent on Mobile in
2019 in India – 3.5 Hrs
… is augmented by
a leap in data

We will go from data poor to data rich nation
in 5 years!
Cashless, Paperless & Presence-less
Service Delivery
Digital
Identity
Paperless
Process
Commerce
Payment
Social
Machine
Intelligence &
Automation

Initiatives to improve internet access has enabled
spurt in content consumption in India
Vasundhra Raje launched a monumental scheme to bring
digital access to 1Cr families, providing financial assistance to
the tune of ₹1,000perhouseholdtopurchasesm artphones.
State & Government Pushes
Monthly Data Consumption
Daily Video Consumption
86 MB
2014 2019
11 GB
2 mins
2012 2015
7 mins
2019
67 mins
Consumption proliferationRise of Jio
100,000,000 96,184,656

Novel drugs combating Antimicrobial Resistance
(AMR)
Methodology to enable entry of existing antibiotics
into pathogens
ML-based on cloud diagnostic analysis & reporting
5 major high-volume, screening processes – blood
smears, urine, semen, OCT scans, & chest x-rays
Deep tech innovations emerging in Healthcare

story - India is creating global
category leaders
Category leadership is opening up
large international opportunities
68
206
432
2018 2019 2020 (P)
REVENUE GROWTH
(USD MN)
Byju’s is now profitable,
revenues growing 3x
Top 10
cities
40%
Other
regions
60%
35MN REGISTERED
SUBSCRIBERS
The opportunity remains
large & growing
Source: Byju’s
Byju’s is the world’s largest
education tech company

leverages
its technology platform
to onboard assets at an
unprecedented pace
CAPABILITY TO TRANSFORM ALL FACETS OF A LODGING ASSET IN
14 DAYS
Source: Oyo Blog

is digitizing its ecosystem at scale
Service Providers
Large number of service
providers
Each service provider creates
multiple jobs
New Age Platforms
Create a few, high-value jobs
that can be leveraged to
enable service providers
1,000,000
Drivers
8,000
Employees
110
Cities
150,000,000
Customers
450,000
Cars

Clean mobility options are now a reality in India,
incumbents see value in partnerships
Machine-enhanced maps of urban clusters and hyper-
local commute optimizes deployment & utilization

is upgrading India’s Banks with it’s
SME-focused Neo-Banking platform
Source: Open
82K+
SMEs
$250M+
Deposits
3,000+
Live integrations with
Banks globally
$4B+
Annualised
transaction value

has created India’s largest blue-
collared employee life-cycle platform
Source: Betterplace
Supply-Demand matching platform
for the next billion jobs
Deliver digital financial accessibility across
spend, save, credit and investments
Managed life-cycle services to simplify
onboarding to exit formalities of employees
Upskill employees to meet the changing
demands of the Industry

Credit without friction
Sees
loan
offers
Accepts
best offer
Receives
loan
Gets
paid
digitally
Repays
loan
Agrees
to share
data
Data
sharing
norms &
tech
Credit
market-
place
Paperless
contract
Transaction
a/c & app
Payment
app
Payment
app
Need a
loan
Credit
marketplace
app
Aadhaar/
eKYC
Digi
locker
API for
loan
offers
eSign
Digilocker
UPI
Auth-
orization
api
UPI
UPI
Paperless instant
credit markets based
on digital exhaust
Bringing millions into
the formal economy

Regulatory
Policy
Market Making
Policy via Challenge
Grants
India Stack
as Digital
Infrastructure
A robust
foundation to
enable
innovative
solutions to
India’s hard
problems
Innovative Solutions to India’s
Hard Problems
- Commercially Viable
- Far reaching consumer impact
- Reinforces experimentation
100s of Experiments
- Low barriers to entry
- Level playing field
- Aligned to national issues
- Rapid success/failure cycle

“
”
India is optimizing to empower
problem solvers. Startups will be the
force multiplier to catapult the country
into a USD 10 Trillion economy by 2030.
Join the conversation on Twitter with @TVMohandasPai and @3one4Capital

[Feb 2020] - India @ 2030 - Mohandas Pai

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