1. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Damir Cosic
World Bank
January 2014
Middle East &
North Africa
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

3. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

4. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

5. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

6. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

7. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
100
80
60
40
20
Tunisia
0
-20
Jordan
-40
Egypt, Arab Rep.
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13
- 44%

8. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) survey crossed into positive
territory in November 2013 for the
first time in 13 months, signaling an
improvement in manufacturing
output going forward.

9. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
80
60
Exports
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

10. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
80
60
Exports
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

11. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
80
60
Exports
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

12. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
80
60
Exports
40
20
0
-20
-40
Tourist
Arrivals
-60
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

13. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
80
60
Exports
40
20
0
-20
-40
Tourist
Arrivals
-60
- 57%
-80
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

14. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10
Jul '10
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

15. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10
Jul '10
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

16. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10
Jul '10
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

17. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d
10.0
10.5
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10
Jul '10
Jan '11
Jul '11
Jan '12
Jul '12
Jan '13
Jul '13

18. External imbalances have worsened in the region
Current account balance as a share of GDP
Forecast
8
6
4
Oil Exporters
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Developing
MENA
Oil Importers
-8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

19. External imbalances have worsened in the region
Current account balance as a share of GDP
Forecast
8
6
4
Oil Exporters
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Developing
MENA
Oil Importers
-8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

20. External imbalances have worsened in the region
Current account balance as a share of GDP
Forecast
8
6
4
Oil Exporters
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Developing
MENA
Oil Importers
-8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

21. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
5
Forecast
Oil Exporters
0
-5
Developing
MENA
-10
Oil Importers
-15
-20
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

22. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
5
Forecast
Oil Exporters
0
-5
Developing
MENA
-10
Oil Importers
-15
-20
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

23. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is
subject to a significant downside risks
% change
6
Forecast
5
4
3
Oil Importers
2
Developing
MENA
1
0
-1
-2
Oil Exporters
-3
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

24. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is
subject to a significant downside risks
% change
6
Forecast
5
4
3
Oil Importers
2.8%
2
Developing
MENA
1
0
-1
-2
Oil Exporters
-3
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

25. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is
subject to a significant downside risks
% change
6
Forecast
5
4
3
Oil Importers
3.6%
2
Developing
MENA
1
0
-1
-2
Oil Exporters
-3
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

26. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Damir Cosic
World Bank
January 2014
Middle East &
North Africa
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook