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10 Trends Impacting Higher Education Wfs 7 09

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Ralph A. Wolff, President and Executive Director
Western Association of Schools and Colleges
Accrediting Commission for Senior Colleges and Universities

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10 Trends Impacting Higher Education Wfs 7 09

  1. 1. 10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society
  2. 2. Overview of U.S. Higher Education <ul><li>Greatest diversity of institutions in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Long considered the best system in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community colleges, open access </li></ul><ul><li>Massification since Korean War </li></ul>
  3. 3. Mission Differentiation <ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><li>Liberal arts </li></ul><ul><li>Comprehensive universities </li></ul><ul><li>Community colleges </li></ul><ul><li>Faith-based </li></ul><ul><li>Specialized/single purpose </li></ul><ul><li>“ One solution never fits all.” </li></ul>
  4. 4. Institutions <ul><li>Public 4-year institutions 643 </li></ul><ul><li>Public 2-year institutions 1,045 </li></ul><ul><li>Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533 </li></ul><ul><li>Private 4-year institutions, for-profit 453 </li></ul><ul><li>Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107 </li></ul><ul><li>Private 2-year institutions, for-profit 533 </li></ul><ul><li>Total 4,314 </li></ul>
  5. 5. Where Students Go <ul><li>Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%) </li></ul><ul><li>Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120 (35%) </li></ul><ul><li>Private 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24%) </li></ul><ul><li>Private 2-year institutions 293,420 (1%) </li></ul><ul><li>Total 17,758,870 </li></ul><ul><li>81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had graduated from high school in the previous year attended colleges in their home states. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Demographics <ul><li>Women 57.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Full-time 61.7% </li></ul><ul><li>Minority 31.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign 3.4% </li></ul>
  7. 7. 1. Financial Meltdown <ul><li>At a time of increased need for higher education: </li></ul><ul><li>Public funding cuts </li></ul><ul><li>Endowment decline > 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Crunch on lines of credit </li></ul><ul><li>Limits on tuition increases at private institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Increases at public universities </li></ul>
  8. 9. 3-5 Year Setting <ul><li>Every state will have a structural deficit </li></ul><ul><li>Pell increases do not make up differences </li></ul><ul><li>$50 billion stimulus money for higher education is one time, focused </li></ul><ul><li>Student debt load increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Student work hours increasing </li></ul>
  9. 10. Short –Medium Term Consequences <ul><li>Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructure </li></ul><ul><li>Will shift most public supported institutions to “public assisted” </li></ul><ul><li>Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint ventures </li></ul><ul><li>Need for new models – are they out there? </li></ul>
  10. 11. 2. President Obama’s Priorities <ul><li>Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % -> 60%) </li></ul><ul><li>National high school exit standards </li></ul><ul><li>Linked to college readiness standards </li></ul><ul><li>$15 billion community college initiative </li></ul><ul><li>$50 million for free online courses </li></ul><ul><li>Centers to develop and share best practices </li></ul>
  11. 12. Short – Medium Term Impact <ul><li>Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation Initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years ago </li></ul><ul><li>Increased access through open admissions </li></ul><ul><li>Increased participation of underrepresented groups </li></ul>
  12. 13. 3. Influence of For Profits and Market Capital <ul><li>Fastest growing sector </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing mergers, acquisitions </li></ul><ul><li>Conversion of nonprofit universities </li></ul><ul><li>Joint ventures with mainline institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Growth, scalability and high profitability of proprietary systems </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley </li></ul>
  13. 14. 4. Technology and Distance Education <ul><li>> 2 million students </li></ul><ul><li>Growing rapidly, increasing competition </li></ul><ul><li>Hybrid programs most effective </li></ul><ul><li>Greatest number within traditional settings </li></ul><ul><li>High tech does not always mean high enrollment </li></ul><ul><li>Can be centers of high profit </li></ul><ul><li>Continuing Congressional concerns </li></ul>
  14. 15. 5. Internationalization <ul><li>Lincoln Commission – value to US students of study abroad </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in international students in US </li></ul><ul><li>Increased competition here and abroad for best international students </li></ul><ul><li>Infusion of international perspectives -- a course or a holistic perspective? </li></ul>
  15. 16. 6. Globalization <ul><li>International recognition of importance of higher education </li></ul><ul><li>Major investments in local systems </li></ul><ul><li>Bologna Process will have significant impact over time </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degrees </li></ul>
  16. 17. 7. Quality Assurance and Accountability <ul><li>Completion rates </li></ul><ul><li>Placement rates </li></ul><ul><li>Learning results </li></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul><ul><li>Debt load </li></ul><ul><li>Executive compensation </li></ul><ul><li>Board accountability </li></ul>
  17. 18. Has Quality Declined? <ul><li>NAAL : Performance of college graduates and those with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003: </li></ul><ul><li>-- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to 31% </li></ul><ul><li>-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41% </li></ul><ul><li>National Survey of America’s College Students : significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skills </li></ul><ul><li>No significant differences between public and private institutions </li></ul><ul><li>In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curricula </li></ul><ul><li>Employers : college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys) </li></ul>
  18. 19. 6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutions <ul><li>All 56.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Men 53.0% </li></ul><ul><li>Women 59.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results Online </li></ul>
  19. 20. Global Competitiveness <ul><li>Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%) </li></ul><ul><li>Dropped from 1 st to 7 th in college participation rates of 18-24 year olds </li></ul><ul><li>2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10 th for 25-34 </li></ul><ul><li>15 th in completion rates </li></ul><ul><li>Lower than OECD average for science and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores) </li></ul>
  20. 21. 8. Sustainability and the University <ul><li>President’s Climate Commitment </li></ul><ul><li>Involvement of professional associations </li></ul><ul><li>Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization </li></ul><ul><li>Major area of scientific research </li></ul><ul><li>Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed </li></ul>
  21. 22. 9. 21 st Century Learning Competencies <ul><li>“We are responsible for preparing our students to address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge that has not yet been developed using technology not yet invented.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert Einstein </li></ul>
  22. 23. Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Gain?
  23. 24. Or Developing the Nation’s Talent and Creativity?
  24. 25. Changing Character of Knowledge <ul><li>Sources of Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li> education institution -> everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning) </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding of Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li> static -> dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to “unlearn”) </li></ul><ul><li>Structure of Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li> compartmental -> holistic </li></ul><ul><li>Nature of Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li> external authority -> personal and contextual </li></ul>
  25. 26. 21 st Century Skills 11 5 Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’ 1 8 Problem solving 4 7 Originality and inventiveness in work 10 6 Fundamental curiosity 6 4 Ability to originate new ideas 2 3 Integration of knowledge across different disciplines 3 2 Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of actions 9 1 Problem identification or articulation
  26. 27. 10. New Forms of Institutions <ul><li>Institutional consolidations/closures </li></ul><ul><li>“Cloud” programs across institutions </li></ul><ul><li>The “partnering” university </li></ul><ul><li>Privatized public universities </li></ul><ul><li>Credit banks </li></ul><ul><li>Transnational universities </li></ul>
  27. 28. What Is On Your List? <ul><li>Ralph Wolff </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>