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FIN 461: Weis Markets

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FIN 461: Sprouts
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FIN 461: Weis Markets

  1. 1. Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK) November 25th 2019 Alec Glynn | Zach Narcross | Andy Newman | Collin O’Sullivan
  2. 2. Table of Contents Industry Overview & Outlook 4-5 Company Overview 6-8 Comparable Companies Analysis 9 Precedent Transactions Analysis 10 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 11-12 Accretion/Dilution Analysis 13 Executive Summary 3 Leveraged Buyout Analysis 14-16 Summary & Closing Thoughts 17-18
  3. 3. Executive Summary 3 Weis Markets is an attractive target acquisition for Sprouts Farmers Market given recent deal experience and the potential for synergies realized and robust market positioning. Business Profile ● This deal would allow Sprouts to grow their presence dramatically in the mid-Atlantic states ● Weis’ recent move into market-based stores makes it a natural fit for the Sprouts portfolio ● Diversified consumer and distributor reliance would give Sprouts/Weis a stronger position against competitors Financial Profile ● Strong gross margins put Weis ahead in the competitive landscape, proving their stability and growth opportunity ● While Sprouts is currently, underperforming in terms of growth when compared to industry, and acquisition in combination with their current growth strategy could lead to big upsides Offer Price Premium ● At an assumed premium of 25%, Weis retains its status as an accretive acquisition for Sprouts Farmers Market
  4. 4. Industry Overview Industry at a Glance FY18 Revenues: $654.6bn | FY18 Profits: $10.5bn Annual Growth (2014-2019): 0.9% ● Industry operators range from large-scale conglomerates to small specialty stores ● Over the past five years, limited assortment stores like Trader Joe’s and Aldi have experienced the most rapid growth ● Limited-assortment stores sell primarily private-label products, which are both less expensive for consumers and more profitable for industry operators ○ Trader Joe’s, the leading supermarket in sales per square foot, sells more than 80.0% private-label goods ● Improving discretionary income has enabled consumers to purchase a wider variety of premium grocery items, specifically organic products 4 Sources: Yahoo Finance 10-K, IBISWorld, MarketLine
  5. 5. Industry Outlook Grocery Industry Outlook ● Over the five years to 2024, the Supermarkets and Grocery Stores industry is expected to benefit from the continually strengthening U.S. economy ● Shoppers will be more inclined to purchase premium-level, value-added products ● Operators will benefit from slowly growing input costs, as commodity markets steady compared with the cost spikes present during the previous five-year period Industry Trends ● Shifting demographics are anticipated to significantly influence the industry ● Millennials are typically characterized as being both health conscious and value driven 5 Sources: Marketline, IBISWorld, Business Insider Intelligence Online Competition ● E-commerce sales are expected to rise at an annualized rate of 8.0%. ● The steady adoption of online grocery services will hamper brick and mortar grocery revenue growth in the coming years Industry Life Cycle ● The Supermarkets and Grocery Stores industry is in the mature stage of its life cycle. The industry's contribution to the overall economy is expected to increase at a slow annualized rate of 1.5%
  6. 6. Company Overview WMK at a Glance Stock Price: $39.45 EPS (TTM): $2.32 Market Cap: $1.06B 6 Sources: Yahoo Finance 10-K, Marketline Financial Growth ● Net Sales up 11.7% from 2016 ● Gross profit rate increased to 26.6% from 2017 ● Increase in the quarterly dividend, amounting to a yearly $32.5 million payout ● In 2016, acquired 43 stores throughout mid-atlantic and today all generate positive cash flows Strategic Initiatives ● Drive competitive edge through innovation in stores and online to include grocery delivery, and new market prototype stores ● Continued investment in information technology systems to improve employee engagement, increase productivity, and provide consumer insights ● Emphasize promotion and loyalty programs as a key differentiator
  7. 7. S.W.O.T. Analysis Sources: Marketline, IBISWorld Strengths ● Robust growth in revenue allows the company to allocate adequate funds for future growth initiatives and enhances its ability to provide higher returns to the shareholders ● Weis operates several successful promotional programs including Everyday Lower Prices (EDLP), Loyalty, and Lowest Price Guarantee programs ● Wide network of manufacturing and distribution capabilities, including robust in-house capabilities Opportunities ● Growing demand for private label grocery products across the United States ● Retail industry growing at a CAGR of 3.1% with food and grocery leading that industry with 47.9% of all sales Weaknesses ● Geographic concentration of operations - Weis stores are concentrated exclusively in suburban DC, central and northeast Pennsylvania, central Maryland, Baltimore, and the southern portion of New York ● Recent recall of some private label products, including milk, negatively affected brand image Threats ● Increasing manpower costs in the United States stand to erode the margins of Weis ● Demanding and constantly changing regulatory environment given exposure to federal, state, and local rules ● Stringent competition in this industry from convenience stores, and other big-box and national retailers that often have far superior resources available
  8. 8. Competitive Landscape 8 Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
  9. 9. Comparable Companies Analysis 9 Sources:Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Pitchbook
  10. 10. Precedent Transactions Analysis 10 Sources: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance
  11. 11. Weighted Average Cost of Capital 11 Sources: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance
  12. 12. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF) 12 DCF Commentary ● Assumptions ○ Revenue expected to grow at a constant rate of 5% per year ○ Operating margin remains constant at 4.5% ● Perpetuity growth method leads to higher valuation due to Weis’ low WACC
  13. 13. Accretion/Dilution Analysis 13 Sources:, Accretion/Dilution Commentary ● Accretive in Year 2 of merger ● Synergies: ○ 15% of Year 2 combined EBITDA ○ 20% of Year 3 combined EBITDA ● Purchase: ○ 100% Stock Consideration ○ 78M new shares issues
  14. 14. Leveraged Buyout Analysis 14 LBO Commentary ● Senior Debt: 46.8% of initial sources (3.5x EBITDA) ○ 6% interest, paid down over time with available FCF ● Subordinated Debt: 26.7% of initial sources (2.0x EBITDA) ○ 8% interest, not paid down over time ● Sponsor Equity: 26.5% of initial sources (2.0x EBITDA) Sources:,
  15. 15. PE Buyers 15 Sources: PitchBook FinancialFinancial Cerberus Capital Management, L.P. is an American private equity firm, specializing in distressed investing. The firm is based in New York City, and run by Steve Feinberg. Cerberus has previous deal experience in the retail grocery market with investments in Albertsons in 2006, Supervalu in 2013 and Safeway in 2014. They focus on ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and the closing or selling of underproductive assets. Weis Markets is a prime candidate to continue to meet Cerberus's high growth and profitability expectations, while Cerberus is poised well to be the partner Weis Markets needs for the next level. Apollo Global Management, LLC is an American private equity firm, founded in 1990 by former Drexel Burnham Lambert banker Leon Black. The firm specializes in leveraged buyout transactions and purchases of distressed securities involving corporate restructuring, special situations, and industry consolidations. Apollo Global Management has previous deal experience in the retail grocery market including an investment in Smart & Final and Fresh Market. They focus on segmenting the various groups within the retailer and then building them out individually. This opportunity would offer great growth opportunities for Weis Markets’ innovation plan.
  16. 16. Valuation Summary 16
  17. 17. Closing Thoughts 17 Comparable Companies Analysis ● The analysis is based on available, similarly-sized, public grocery comparables with additional insights from food distributors and retail competitors Why is Weis a good strategic target for Sprouts? ● An acquisition of Weis Markets by Sprouts could provide dramatic upside through distribution, customer, and location diversification. Furthermore, the deal will help Sprouts grow in an otherwise stagnant grocery industry, and the deal is projected to be accretive in year two through robust synergies. Precedent Transactions Analysis ● A healthy amount of activity in the M&A market, while the industry seeks inorganic growth, backs a solid exit multiple Accretion/Dilution Analysis ● First year analysis shows dilution between the two companies; however, even with a strong premium and limited synergies the deal become accretive after year 1 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ● Weis’ revenues are expected to continue to grow at a constant rate as they add locations while margins remain stagnant. Perpetual growth is relatively low due to highly competitive, low-growth, grocery industry Leveraged Buyout Analysis ● Weis is a strong LBO target. With a 25% purchase premium, Weis still delivers a 20% IRR and 1.63x cash return if they exit in year 5 at a industry average 6.5x EBITDA multiple

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