15 February 2023… Rider University, Global Biogeochemistry Class Visit (Presentation): Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, USA. References... Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083095

1. Arctic climate change
through the lens of
data visualization
@ZLabe
Zachary Labe
Postdoc at Princeton/GFDL
15 February 2023
Rider University Visit
NOAA GFDL

4. NOW
Start of
satellite-era

5. The Arctic.

6. The Arctic.

9. Satellite-era
Uncertainties!

10. Climate Variability
R
e
c
e
n
t
A
r
c
t
i
c
A
m
p
l
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n

11. [Goosse
et
al.
2018]

12. Observing ice.

13. Ice-covered
No Ice

14. Carbon
Brief;
Tom
Prater,
2020

17. Changes to
weather.

18. 7 Feb. 2010

19. JET STREAM
[Visualization
by
NASA/JPL
Hyperwall]

20. Global climate change
Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitude weather
Arctic
Amplification
Changes in:
+ Storm tracks
+ Jet stream
+ Planetary waves
Natural Variability
+ Internal modes
+ Solar cycle
+ Volcanoes
Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes
+ Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss
+ Fall Eurasian snow cover increases
+ Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss
[adapted/changed from
Cohen et al., 2014;
Nature Geosciences]
Polar Vortex

21. COLD
EXTREMES
LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL

22. COHEN ET AL. 2020

23. Looking ahead.

24. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980
Our planet
without change…

25. Observed Arctic
temperatures from
1950 to 2021
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

26. Simulated historical
Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2014
using a climate model
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

27. Simulated Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2100 using a
climate model WITHOUT human-
caused climate change
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

28. What influences of climate
change do you see on
temperatures in the Arctic?
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

29. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from
2015 to 2100 using a
climate model with
increases in fossil fuel
development
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

30. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with moderate progress in
mitigation and other
sustainability goals
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

31. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with a rapid reduction in
current emissions globally
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

32. It’s not
too late!
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

33. It’s not
too late!

34. Modeling vs. Field Work

35. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

39. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
We need scientists.
We need educators.
We need innovators.
We need communicators.

40. DATA VISUALIZATION
IS STORY-TELLING.
Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021

42. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

43. 2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY

44. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

45. DON’T BE
SUCH A
SCIENTIST
WE ARE
DATA
SCIENTISTS
ART BY JILL PELTO

46. Landscape of Change uses data
about sea level rise, glacier volume
decline, increasing global
temperatures, and the increasing use
of fossil fuels. These data lines
compose a landscape shaped by
the changing climate, a world in
which we are now living.
Jill Pelto|http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
“
”

47. THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Considering a global view of
temperatures relative to
average – placing weather in
the context of climate

48. THE ARCTIC IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Daily Arctic temperature in
2018 (red) compared to
every year since 1958 in the
month of February. Average
is shown by the white line.

49. THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO COMMUNICATE

50. [International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]
Start a conversation!

51. https://showyourstripes.info/

52. KEY POINTS
Climate change effects have already emerged in the Arctic.
Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in
future climate projections.
We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.
Zachary Labe
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/