Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future

Contrasting polar climate change
in the past, present, and future
@ZLabe
Zachary Labe
Postdoc at Princeton/GFDL
28 September 2023
Temple University: EES 3506/5506
Observing & Modeling Climate Change

RESEARCHER
Climate signal vs. weather noise
@ZLabe
COMMUNICATOR
RESEARCHER
Arctic climate change
STORYTELLER
Simple, bold data visualization
ZACHARY LABE
Climate Scientist at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
https://zacklabe.com/

The Arctic is warming more than 3 times
faster than the global average!

Climate Variability
R
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e
n
t
A
r
c
t
i
c
A
m
p
l
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n

Polar Amplification:
acceleration of warming in
high latitudes relative to
the rest of the globe

[ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

Carbon
Brief;
Tom
Prater,
2020

Consistent
Spatial Warming
Observations
Model
(CO
2
)

R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

JET STREAM
[Visualization
by
NASA/JPL
Hyperwall]

MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER

MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER
Historical Future

MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER
Future
X

Why? What is the perturbation?

Turbulent heat fluxes
[ SIC ]

Turbulent heat fluxes
[ SIC + SIT ]

Global climate change
Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitude weather
Arctic
Amplification
Changes in:
+ Storm tracks
+ Jet stream
+ Planetary waves
Natural Variability
+ Internal modes
+ Solar cycle
+ Volcanoes
Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes
+ Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss
+ Fall Eurasian snow cover increases
+ Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss
[adapted from Cohen et al., 2014;
Nature Geosciences]
Polar Vortex

WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF
SEA-ICE LOSS
RELATIVE TO
ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?

Δ2-m
TEMPERATURE
Sea-ice
loss
Arctic
amplification
LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL

October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980
Our planet
without change…

Observed Arctic
temperatures from
1950 to 2021
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Simulated historical
Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2014
using a climate model
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Simulated Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2100 using a
climate model WITHOUT human-
caused climate change
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

What influences of climate
change do you see on
temperatures in the Arctic?
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Projected future Arctic
temperatures from
2015 to 2100 using a
climate model with
increases in fossil fuel
development
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with moderate progress in
mitigation and other
sustainability goals
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with a rapid reduction in
current emissions globally
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

It’s not
too late!
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Check out: https://betterfigures.org/2018/06/04/playing-hunt-the-discontinuity/

Crameri, F. (2018). Scientific colour maps.
Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1243862
Crameri, F. (2018), Geodynamic diagnostics, scientific
visualisation and StagLab 3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2541-
2562, doi:1 0.5194/gmd-11-2541-2018
Crameri, F., G.E. Shephard, and P.J. Heron (2020), The
misuse of colour in science communication, Nature
Communications, 11, 5444. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7

Crameri, F. (2018). Scientific colour maps.
Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1243862
Crameri, F. (2018), Geodynamic diagnostics, scientific visualisation and
StagLab 3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2541-2562, doi:1 0.5194/gmd-11-
2541-2018
Crameri, F., G.E. Shephard, and P.J. Heron (2020), The misuse of colour in
science communication, Nature Communications, 11,
5444. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7
Palettable:
Color palettes for Python

TURBO
https://ai.googleblog.com/2019/08/turbo-improved-rainbow-colormap-for.html

OTHER OPTIONS
THYNG ET AL. 2016; OCEANOGRAPHY

CMOCEAN
THYNG ET AL. 2016; OCEANOGRAPHY

CMASHER
“Scientific colormaps for making accessible, informative
and cmashing plots”

Adapted from Ed Hawkins at betterfigures.org

1. Seaborn.
2. Plotly.
3. ggplot.
4. Matplotlib v3.
RESOURCES

1. https://betterfigures.org/
2. https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/
3. http://colorbrewer2.org/
RESOURCES

ACCESSIBILITY
No jargon
Tell a story
Alternative text
Color contrast ratio
Label data directly
Avoid flashing GIFs
Include figure titles
Avoid data overlays
Provide data references

VISUALIZING
GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE

2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY

PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
https://showyourstripes.info/

DATA VISUALIZATION
IS STORY-TELLING.
Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021

DON’T BE
SUCH A
SCIENTIST
WE ARE
DATA
SCIENTISTS
ART BY JILL PELTO

Landscape of Change uses data
about sea level rise, glacier volume
decline, increasing global
temperatures, and the increasing use
of fossil fuels. These data lines
compose a landscape shaped by
the changing climate, a world in
which we are now living.
Jill Pelto|http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
“
”

THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Considering a global view of
temperatures relative to
average – placing weather in
the context of climate

THE ARCTIC IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Daily Arctic temperature in
2018 (red) compared to
every year since 1958 in the
month of February. Average
is shown by the white line.

THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO COMMUNICATE

[International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]
Start a conversation!

Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
We need scientists.
We need educators.
We need innovators.
We need communicators.

KEY POINTS
Climate change effects have already emerged in the Arctic.
Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in
future climate projections.
We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.
Zachary Labe, PhD
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/

Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future

Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future

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