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Stagflation
Stagflation and
In-effectiveness of
Monetary Policy
Presented By:
Muhammad Zeeshan Azam (123220)
Fazeel Ahmad (123221)
Semester : Fall-2013
Table of Contents
 Introduction to Stagflation
 Periods of Stagflation in Pakistan
 Current Situation
 Causes of Stagflation
 In-effectiveness of Monetary Policy
 Suggestions and Conclusion
Introduction to Stagflation
Combination of two major economic conditions
 Stagnation :The economic growth rate slows down, and
unemployment remains steadily high.
 Inflation: The increase in overall price level
 Stagflation: A situation where an inflation rate is high, the
economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains
steadily high
ds
The Periods of Stagflation
Pakistan has faced three periods of stagflation
 First period of stagflation
 Second period of stagflation
 Third period of Stagflation
The first period of stagflation
 Began in 1970s
 After the disastrous succession of East-Pakistan
 It was subsequently ended by the military government
of Zia-ul-Haq in 1980s
Second period of stagflation
 Began in 1990s
 Benazir Bhutto and Navaz Sharif attempted to
tackle the stagflation
 Subsequently ended by Shaukat Aziz in 2000s.
Third period of Stagflation
 After the 2008 elections and the wide spread of
militancy in the Western Pakistan, which would
later follow the crisis
Current Situation
 Economic cancer
 Crippling energy crisis, terrorism, financial corruption and
economic mismanagement by the last government
 Increase in sales tax rate from 16% to 17% (June 2013)
 Rupee depreciation
 In increase in prices of imported consumer and non-consumer
items
 In October 2013, total food inflation was at 9.8%
Causes of Stagflation in Pakistan:
 Reduced productive capacity of an economy
 Inappropriate macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary)
 Lower Tax/GDP ratio leading to higher fiscal deficit
 Higher government borrowing from State Bank
 Unemployment is another factor which causes stagflation
 Social crimes are also be seen in the country
In-Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
 The monetary policy is conducted by the central
bank
 State Bank of Pakistan is fully capable of
implementing its own independent monetary
policy
Two broad objectives
 Secure monetary stability
 Find fuller utilization of country’s productive
resources
Reasons for In-effectiveness
 Lack of coordination between Fiscal and Monetary
Authorities
 SBP failed to control money supply
 Failed to control rate of inflation within the set
target level.
Suggestions and Conclusion
 Government has to take some positive and tangible measures
to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
 Stop capital flight from the country
 State Bank of Pakistan should reduce the inflationary
pressures
 Enforcing an effective and independent monetary policy in
the country
Continued…
 Enhanced central bank independence will improve
monetary policymaking
 Government should focus on revenue side to
improve the tax to GDP ratio
 It is suggested by IMF to generate 1.5million
employment per year
Stagflation

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Stagflation

  • 3. Presented By: Muhammad Zeeshan Azam (123220) Fazeel Ahmad (123221) Semester : Fall-2013
  • 4. Table of Contents  Introduction to Stagflation  Periods of Stagflation in Pakistan  Current Situation  Causes of Stagflation  In-effectiveness of Monetary Policy  Suggestions and Conclusion
  • 5. Introduction to Stagflation Combination of two major economic conditions  Stagnation :The economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high.  Inflation: The increase in overall price level  Stagflation: A situation where an inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high
  • 6. ds
  • 7. The Periods of Stagflation Pakistan has faced three periods of stagflation  First period of stagflation  Second period of stagflation  Third period of Stagflation
  • 8. The first period of stagflation  Began in 1970s  After the disastrous succession of East-Pakistan  It was subsequently ended by the military government of Zia-ul-Haq in 1980s
  • 9. Second period of stagflation  Began in 1990s  Benazir Bhutto and Navaz Sharif attempted to tackle the stagflation  Subsequently ended by Shaukat Aziz in 2000s. Third period of Stagflation  After the 2008 elections and the wide spread of militancy in the Western Pakistan, which would later follow the crisis
  • 10. Current Situation  Economic cancer  Crippling energy crisis, terrorism, financial corruption and economic mismanagement by the last government  Increase in sales tax rate from 16% to 17% (June 2013)  Rupee depreciation  In increase in prices of imported consumer and non-consumer items  In October 2013, total food inflation was at 9.8%
  • 11. Causes of Stagflation in Pakistan:  Reduced productive capacity of an economy  Inappropriate macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary)  Lower Tax/GDP ratio leading to higher fiscal deficit  Higher government borrowing from State Bank  Unemployment is another factor which causes stagflation  Social crimes are also be seen in the country
  • 12. In-Effectiveness of Monetary Policy  The monetary policy is conducted by the central bank  State Bank of Pakistan is fully capable of implementing its own independent monetary policy Two broad objectives  Secure monetary stability  Find fuller utilization of country’s productive resources
  • 13. Reasons for In-effectiveness  Lack of coordination between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities  SBP failed to control money supply  Failed to control rate of inflation within the set target level.
  • 14. Suggestions and Conclusion  Government has to take some positive and tangible measures to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)  Stop capital flight from the country  State Bank of Pakistan should reduce the inflationary pressures  Enforcing an effective and independent monetary policy in the country
  • 15. Continued…  Enhanced central bank independence will improve monetary policymaking  Government should focus on revenue side to improve the tax to GDP ratio  It is suggested by IMF to generate 1.5million employment per year