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MOBILE IS
EATING THE
WORLD
BENEDICT EVANS
@BenedictEvans
May 2015
Mobile is making
technology universal
3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1995 2000
Billion people online
Growth into the bubble
Source: ITU, a16z
4
0
1
2
3
1995 2000 2014
Billion people online
People online
Smartphones
Growth since the bubble
Source: ITU, a16z
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2014 2020
Billion people online
People online
Smartphones
Growth into the future - everyone
Anothe...
6
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Global adult population
No Internet
No smartphone
The end of the unconnected
Smartphones drive much ...
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Population Adults Mobile Online population Smart phones PCs
Global population (bn)
Growth to 2020
2014...
An iPhone 6 CPU has 625 times more
transistors than a 1995 Pentium.
iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x
more CPU tran...
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cellular coverage 3G coverage now 3G coverage by
2019
Improved water Electricity Mobi...
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
PC average iPhone average Android average Android entry price
Device price ($)
$35 An...
11
We go from this…
Source: James Cridland (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/612782641)11
12
… To this
Source: Alan Knott-Craig12
Mobile remakes the
tech industry
14
0
100
200
300
400
Mar-95 Sep-96 Mar-98 Sep-99 Mar-01 Sep-02 Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Mar-13 Sep-14
Qua...
15
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Games consoles Cameras TVs PCs Smartphones Mobile phones
Unit sales, 2014 (bn)
Phones have scale th...
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue
Mobile ...
17
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
Microsoft share...
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million people
Chinese mobile
internet users
EU popul...
19
iPhone, 34%
Xiaomi, 20%MEIZU, 11%
Samsung, 8%
Huawei, 4%
Other, 23%
What phone brands do Chinese teenagers want? (Q4 20...
20
Tech center of gravity moves from Seattle
and Finland (and Japan)
Old New
Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google
C...
21
Mobile supply chain dominates all tech
The size of the smartphone business means it is driving into every other part of...
Mobile remakes the
internet
23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012 2013 2014
Mobile share of 'Black Friday' ecommerce
Traffic
Value
The growth of post-PC de...
24
Only at home
8%
Mainly at home
16%
Both at home and outside
66%
Mainly out of home
9%
Only out of home
1%
Where do you ...
For 20 years, ‘internet’ meant web browsers,
mouse and keyboard. Mobile ended that.
Half of all time spent online in the U...
26
Interaction models are totally unsettled
Rapid innovation and change continues
“I installed an app on my Android smartp...
27
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Phone unit sales Global Browsing Delhi FB users SF FB users App store revenue
Mobile platform share...
28
A computer
shouldn’t ask
anything that
it should
know
Sensors
profoundly
change what
a computer
can know
Every new
sens...
29
Mobile’s multiplier effect
Increased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale
x
Personal
Take...
30
0
1
2
3
4
Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-...
Global SMS: 20bn messages a day.
WhatsApp: 30bn messages a day.
(with just 40 engineers)
Source: GSMA, WhatsApp
32
2000
100 staff
1m users
$10m raised
Today
10 staff
10m users
$1m raised
?
1 engineer
1m users
$0 raised
Fundamental chang...
Mobile dominates
our attention
34
Screens dominate our lives
More than half our time awake is spend on media and communications
Source: Ofcom
35
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
Global LCD screen sales (b...
36
TVs
24%
iOS
13%
Google Android
23%
Chinese Android
9%
WP/RIM
1%
PCs & Macs
30%
Global install base of video players, 20...
37
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Boys Girls
‘Media you would miss most', UK aged 11-15, 2014
Other
TV set
Games console
PC
Mobile & ...
38
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Adults 11 to 15
Share of communication activity, UK, 2014
Photo messages
Messaging apps
Social netw...
1999 – 80bn consumer photos taken on film.
2014 – 800bn photos shared on social.
More iPhones & Android phones sold than
Ja...
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Japanese camera unit sales (m)
Film
Digital, DSLR
etc
Digital, Fixed
lens
Digital gives and it ta...
Tech outgrows tech
42
Three phases of technology deployment
Companies that make
technology
Companies that buy
technology
Companies that are
b...
43
Companies that buy technology
Tech has become part of
every office
Like plants, tech is part
of facilities
But is the bus...
44
Building companies around new technology
The really important new businesses are native to new technologies
Trucks &
hi...
45
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20...
46
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Amazon North America ecommerce as ...
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Quarterly revenue ($bn)
Amaz...
48
Mobile scale allows far more Amazons
Most tech is bought and paid for,
not used to create new businesses
10 years ago, ...
49
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘...
50
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘...
51
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘...
52
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘...
Software is eating
the world
Tech is outgrowing
the tech industry
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29 Mobile’s multiplier effect Increased Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)

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29
Mobile’s multiplier effect
Increased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale
x
Personal
Taken everywhere
Frictionless access
Sensors, cameras
Location
Payment
Social platform
Much easier to use
Vastly bigger
opportunity=
2-3x more
smartphones
than PCs by
2020

Publié dans : Mobile, Technologie, Internet

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